Campaigns and Elections

The Structure of American Elections Structured to limit popular control and

minimize chances of factions controlling government Schedule Terms Geography

Political Geography of House districts Apportionment Gerrymandering

Electoral College

Created to provide a check on popular will Allocation of Electoral Votes based on size of

states’ congressional delegation Thwarting the Popular Vote

1876—Hayes over Tilden (controversial) 1888—Harrison over Cleveland 2000—Bush over Gore (controversial)

Elections in the U.S. Occur in Two Stages Nomination (Primaries) The General Election Campaign

Functions of campaigns

Inform Persuade Mobilize

Impact of campaigns

Conventions Usually the most important campaign events Frequently produce large swings in public opinion Large swings are not always decisive

Debates More modest effects Generally informative, especially for low-information voters

Minimal effects? Leader on Labor Day almost always wins

Perspectives on Voting Behavior Social-psychological model

Party Identification Social groups

Retrospective Voting Reward-punishment Valence issues

Prospective Voting Issue proximity Positional issues

Race

SocialClass

Religion

Parents

PartyIdentification

Vote

PositionalIssues

RetrospectiveEvaluations

A General Model of Vote Choice

Factors Influencing Voters in 2000

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Relative Impact (Size of Gap)

Sex

Economy

Union

Income

Environment

Religiousity

Direction of Country

Guns

Race

Gov't Size

Abortion

Clinton Personal

Ideology

Clinton Approval

Party Identification

Determinants of the Vote, 2000

Predicting Election Outcomes Economy Presidential Approval Terms in Office

Why Isn’t Al Gore President?

Economy and Presidential Approval? Clinton Fatigue? Campaign? Information Environment?

Political Participation

Activities we undertake to choose leaders, give information to government, take part in politics.

Many modes of participation Conventional Unconventional

Who Votes?

Demographic groups Socioeconomic Status Age Race Religion Gender

Resources

Who Votes (cont.)?

Political Attitudes Partisanship Efficacy Civic Duty Political Knowledge Interest

Who Votes?

0 10 20 30 40 50 Relative Impact (Size of Gap)

Campaign Interest

Partisanship

Education

Income

Age

Marital Status

Relig. Attend.

Television Expos.

Newspaper Expos.

Political Efficacy

Race

Region

Political Trust

Sex

Influences on Voter Turnout

(De)Mobilization Activities

Party and group activities Campaign spending

Competition, information, GOTV Type of election

Information, interest Registration Requirements

Trends in Voter Turnout

Declining turnout since 1960 Explanations Does low turnout matter?

Cross-national Comparisons: Why is turnout so low in the U.S.? Underlying Civic Attitudes? Differences in political systems?