Campaigns and Voting Behavior

Chapter 9 – 16th edition

Types of Campaigns►Nomination Campaigns – This is the FIRST campaign

politicians take part in - the goal is to win your party’s nomination for office. You are running against members of YOUR OWN party.

►Election Campaigns – This is the SECOND campaign, once you’ve WON the nomination - the goal is win an elected office in government. You RUN against an opponent from the OTHER party.

The Upcoming Presidential Campaign Calendar ►The year (OR TWO) before the election –

Candidates announce their intent to run►January-June of 2016 - Caucuses and Primary

Elections in every state (Nomination campaign)►End of Summer of 2016 - National Party

Conventions – one for each party. Party nominees are finalized!! (this is the start of the ELECTION campaign!)►Fall of 2016 - Debates between Candidates►November 8, 2016 - General Election (popular

vote)►December 2016 - Electoral College casts ballots►January 20th 2017 - Inauguration!!

The Nomination Game

►Nomination: the official endorsement of a candidate for office by a political party (this happens at the CONVENTION!) ►Generally, success requires momentum, money,

and media attention.►Campaign Strategy: the master game plan

candidates lay out to guide their electoral campaign

The Nomination Game

►Deciding to Run• Campaigns are more physically and emotionally taxing

than ever.• Other countries have short campaigns, generally less

than 2 months.• American campaigns are much longer.►Whoever is elected president declares their

intention to run early in the year BEFORE the election.►Candidates for the 2016 presidential election

announced their candidacy as early as 2014???

Delegates? HUH?►When you participate in a caucus or primary, you

are choosing DELEGATES who will attend the convention in support of the candidate you like best. A vote for Candidate X is REALLY a vote for a delegate to attend the convention to SUPPORT Candidate X►The more delegates supporting Candidate X at the

convention, the more likely he/she is to get the nomination►Primaries vs Caucuses http://www.youtube.com/w

atch?v=_95I_1rZiIs

The Nomination Game►Caucus: system for selecting delegates used in about

a dozen rural states. Voters show up at a set time and attend an open meeting to show their preference for President.►Caucusing is EASY!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=racTAiemEQU►A handful of states use a caucus—open to all voters

who are registered with a party. Takes more time on the part of the people. Lower turnout than for states with primaries.►The Iowa caucus is first and most important.

The Nomination Game►Primary: elections in which voters in a state vote

for a nominee (or delegates pledged to the nominee) Began at turn of 20th century by progressive

reformers Most delegates are chosen through primaries. Superdelegates: party leaders who

automatically get a delegate slot at the National Convention (NOT a good example of democracy ) – Both parties have them

►Frontloading is the tendency of states to hold primaries early to capitalize on media attention. New Hampshire is first.►Generally primaries serve as elimination

contests.

McGovern-Fraser Commission►Formed as a reaction to the violence at the

Democratic National Convention in Chicago in 1968 (anti-war party members felt they weren’t represented within the convention)►Wanted to be sure that the delegates to the DNC

were really representative of the Democratic Party itself (women, minorities, etc.) ►This led to the primary elections in most states and

transformation of the Republican party process as well►This was a HUGE advancement for true democracy

The Nomination Game• Evaluating the Primary and Caucus System►Disproportionate attention to early primaries and

caucuses►Prominent politicians do not run.►Money plays too big a role.►Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and

unrepresentative (voters are older and more affluent); 25 percent vote in primaries, and only about 5% vote in caucuses (except Iowa, where it’s 20%)►The system gives too much power to the media.

The Nomination Game

►Competing for Delegates• Nomination game is an elimination contest• Goal is to win a majority of delegates’ support at the

national party convention, or the supreme power within each of the parties►The convention meets every four years to

nominate the party’s presidential and vice-presidential candidates.►Party platform is written.►Conventions are but a formality today (they’re

really a big party!!).

The Nomination Game

►The Convention Send-off• National conventions once provided great drama, but

now are a formality, which means less TV time.• Significant rallying point for parties• Key note speaker on first day of Convention• Party platform: statement of a party’s goals and

policies for next four years►Debated on the second day of the Convention

• Formal nomination of president and vice-president candidates on third and fourth days

The Nomination Game

The Campaign Game

►The High-Tech Media Campaign• The Internet plays a HUGE roll in elections• Social media, campaign donations, etc.

• Direct mail is used to generate support and money for the candidate• Major budget item: TV advertising• Emphasis on “marketing” a candidate• News stories focus more on the “horse race” than

substantive policy issues

The Campaign Game►Organizing the Campaign• Get a campaign manager• Get a fund-raiser & campaign counsel

(attorney)• Hire media and campaign consultants• Assemble staff and plan logistics• Get research staff, policy advisors, and

pollsters• Get a good press secretary• Establish a website

How to Give Money to Political Campaigns►Direct Campaign contributions can be given to

the candidates’ campaigns and to the political parties, which go into their bank accounts and can be used for anything (these must be reported to the FEC) Limits: $2,600 per election to a candidate, $32,400 to a political party as of 2014

►Donations to groups that make independent expenditures to express political views which may aid a candidate’s campaign, but cannot coordinate WITH the campaign

Money and CampaigningFederal Election Campaign Act (1974)• Created the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to

administer campaign finance laws for federal elections• Required candidates to disclose of who is donating

money to federal campaigns and how the funds are being spent►Created the Presidential Election Campaign Fund

($3 voluntary donation on income tax forms)►Provided partial public financing for presidential

primaries• Matching funds: If candidates accept this money

they agree to limit what they spend on their campaigns.

Money and Campaigning• Federal Election Campaign Act (1974) continued►Provided full public financing for major party

candidates in the general election. In 2008, this fixed amount was $85 million. Obama did not accept it and raised money in maximum amounts of $2300 per individual donor. He raised $337 million which gave him a huge edge over McCain who accepted the $85 million.►Required full disclosure of all campaign donations

to the FEC listing who contributed and how much►Limited contributions per individual to $1000 when

the law was enacted. The limit was raised to $2500 in 2012, and $2600 in 2014.

Money and Campaigning►The Maze of Campaign Finance Reforms• Soft Money: political contributions (not subject to

contribution limits) earmarked for party-building expenses or generic party advertising

• The McCain-Feingold Act (2002) banned soft money, increased amount of individual contributions, and limited “issue ads.”

• Ever since McCain Feingold, people have been looking for ways around the law so they can influence elections with big dollar donations

How do big donors get away with unlimited donations?► They donate to 527 groups: Just known as 527s.

Independent groups that seek to influence political process but are not subject to contribution restrictions because they do not directly seek election of particular candidates.

► Created as a way for groups to get around the ban on soft money. Examples: Swift Boat Veterans for Truth (anti-Kerry 527) and Moveon.org (anti-Bush 527) These donations still have to be reported to the FEC, but there is no dollar limit on them

Swift Boat Veterans Ad Moveon.org Anti-Bush ad

Undoing McCain-Feingold

►527’s had SOME restrictions under McCain Feingold. One limit was that corporations and unions could NOT use their money to electioneer in the last 60 days of a federal campaign

►Citizens United v. FEC (2010) :says that this was a limit on free speech. Corporations and unions can now spend as much as they like to promote their political views as long as they do it without coordinating their message with a candidate’s campaign. Expenditures were seen as protected forms of speech

►Criticisms: special interest money is corrupting the election process

501(c) groups

• 501 (c): A vehicle for donating unlimited sums of money to political campaigns• These are formed through the IRS, not the FEC so their

donors can remain anonymous unless their donation is going to create a political ad• These groups can’t spend more than half their money

on political activities

Money and Campaigning►The Proliferation of PACs• Political Action Committees (PACs): created by law in 1974 to

allow corporations, labor unions and other interest groups to donate money to campaigns; PACs are registered with and monitored by the FEC.• As of 2008 there were 4,611 PACs.• PACs contributed over $412.8 million to congressional

candidates in 2008• PACs donate to candidates who support their issue.• PACs do not “buy” candidates, but give to candidates who

support them in the first place.• All PAC donations must be carefully recorded by candidates

Super PACs

►After Citizens United, another case, SpeechNow.org v. FEC ruled that donations to PACs who ONLY make independent expenditures CANNOT be limited. With this unlimited power to donate, journalists named them Super PACs.►The wealthiest people in the country who HAD been

limited to $2500 donations to the candidate of their choice, could now send MILLIONS to a Super PAC to run ads on behalf of their candidate►Some see them as freedom of expression, others see

them as corruption of the system

Money and Campaigning►Are Campaigns Too Expensive?• Fundraising takes a lot of time.• Incumbents do worse when they spend more money

because it means they need to spend more to defeat quality challengers.• The doctrine of sufficiency suggests that candidates need

just “enough” money to win, not necessarily “more” (Meg Whitman lost to Jerry Brown although she outspent him by $100 million)

The Impact of Campaigns

►Campaigns have three effects on voters:• Reinforcement, Activation, Conversion

►Several factors weaken campaigns’ impact on voters:• Selective perception: pay most attention to things we

agree with• Party identification still influences voting behavior• Incumbents begin with sizeable advantage

Whether to Vote!• Suffrage – the right to vote• Federal law has greatly expanded suffrage in the US• 15th Amendment – gave freed slaves the right to vote• 19th Amendment – gave women the right to vote• 26th Amendment – gave 18 year olds the right to vote

• Which two groups are excluded from voting?

Deciding Whether to Vote

• Deciding Whether to Vote• U.S. has low voter turnout• Anthony Downs: it is rational to not vote• People vote if they believe one party’s policies will

bring more benefits than the other party• If indifferent (see no differences), then one may

rationally abstain from voting.• Political Efficacy: the belief that one’s political

participation really matters (high efficacy=voter)• Civic Duty: the belief that in order to support

democratic government, a citizen should always vote (high sense of civic duty= voter, juror, etc.)

Registering to Vote• Registering To Vote• Voter Registration: a system adopted by most states

that requires voters to register well in advance of the election day

• Registration procedures differ by state.• Motor Voter Act: passed in 1993, requires states to

permit people to register to vote when they apply for their driver’s license. Was intended to increase voter turnout, but it hasn’t.

• Voter ID laws: What is the controversy? Who do they most adversely affect?

Who Votes?• Education: More education = more likely to vote. Most

important factor• Age: Older = more likely to vote• Race and Ethnicity: Caucasian = more likely to vote.

BUT, other ethnicities are higher with comparable education (very high % of African American voters in 2008)

• Gender: Females are voting at a rate slightly higher than men

• Marital Status: Married = more likely to vote• Union Membership: Union member = more likely to vote• Government workers: having your job at stake = more

likely to vote• Traits are cumulative - possessing several traits makes

one even more likely to vote

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions

• Mandate Theory of Elections• The idea that the winning candidate has a

mandate from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics• Politicians like the theory better than political

scientists do.• Political Scientists focus on three things to explain

why people vote the way they do: Explained in depth on the next three slides • 1. party identification• 2. evaluation of the candidates• 3. the match between voters’ policy positions

and those of the candidates (policy voting)

Party Identification

• People still generally vote for a party they agree with.• With the rise of candidate-centered

politics, parties’ hold on voters declined in the 1960s and 1970s.• Many more voters make an individual

voting decision and are up for grabs each election, (so-called floating voters). Young people are the biggest group of floating voters.

Candidate Evaluation: How Americans See the Candidates• Candidates want a good visual

image.• Especially on dimensions of

integrity, reliability, and competence

• Personality plays a role in vote choice, especially if a candidate is perceived to be incompetent or dishonest.

Policy Voting• Basing your vote choice on issue preferences

and where the candidates stand on policy issues

• Policy voting may occur if : • Voters know where they and the candidates

stand on issues and see differences between candidates

• Unlikely to occur because:• Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues.• Media tend to focus on the “horse race” not

issues.• Today candidates are forced to take a clear

stand in the party primaries increasing chances for policy voting.

The Electoral College

• Electoral college actually elects the president—founders wanted the executive to be chosen by the elite of the country• States choose the electors• Winner-Take-All system gives bigger

emphasis to more populated states• Explaining the Electoral College

Electoral College continued…

• How it works today:• Each state has as many votes as it does

Representatives and Senators. (55 for CA)• Winner of popular vote typically gets all the

Electoral College votes for that state (except Maine and Nebraska)

• Electors meet in December, votes are reported by the vice president in January

• If no candidate gets a majority (270 votes), the House of Representatives votes for president, with each state casting one vote.

• Problems With the Electoral College

Why is the Electoral College Important?

• It introduces bias into the campaign and electoral process – less populated states are OVERREPRESENTED (Bush won the Electoral College vote in 2000 by doing better in a number of small states)• Candidates focus on winning a relatively small

number of “battleground” states – where the vote is likely to be the closest. These states are bombarded with TV ads, and visits from the nominees

Understanding Nominations and Campaigns

►Are Nominations and Campaigns Too Democratic?• Campaigns are open to almost everyone.• Campaigns consume much time and money.• Campaigns promote individualism in American politics.

►Do Big Campaigns Lead to an Increased Scope of Government?• Candidates make numerous promises, especially to

state and local interests.• Hard for politicians to promise to cut size of

government

Summary►Campaigns are media-oriented and expensive.►Delegates are selected through caucuses and primaries.►Money and contributions from PACs regulated by the FEC

are essential to campaigns. ►Campaigns reinforce perceptions but do not change

minds.►Voters make two basic decisions at election time:• Whether to vote• Who to vote for

• Party identification, candidate evaluations, and policy positions drive vote choice.

• Elections are fundamental to a democracy.