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AtmosphereMonitoring
Johannes Flemming, Zak Kipling, Vincent Huijnen, Samuel Remy, Anna Agusti-‐Panareda, CAMS development section at ECMWF, CAMS 42 and CAMS 43 development teams
(Global) CAMS systemcurrent and upcoming (and past)versions modelling aspects
AtmosphereMonitoring
A t m o s p h e r i c C o m p o s i t i o n i n t h e I F S
ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)
NWP model Dynamic, physics,
transport
AtmosphereMonitoring
T h e w a y f o r w a r d …
• Improved integration of aerosol and chemistry scheme (and also GHG…)– formation of secondary aerosols (Nitrate, Sulphate)– Aerosol modulation of chemical process (heterogeneous reaction, photolysis attenuation)
• Wet and dry deposition fluxes as new CAMS products (total N, Fe in DD) – On-‐line calculation of fluxes– Diagnostics and evaluation required
• Attribution of fluxes and emissions – Tagged tracers– Flux estimation
• Link to NWP – Tracer in Radiation – Link to land surface scheme (Land use, vegetation)
• Resolution upgrades– Better representation of surface fluxes– Update to 137 Level (model at top at 80 km)
• Improvement of computational performance overall flexibility– Single precision experimentation– Performance analysis and optimization
AtmosphereMonitoring
C o m p u t a t i o n a l c o s t o f i n c l u d i n g A t m o s p h e r i c C o m p o s i t i o n i n I F S
Cost of atmospheric composition in NWP (CB05 + AER)• Model simulation only : x 5 more expensive • Data assimilation suite: x 2 more expensive (40 x more expensive than forecast)
AtmosphereMonitoring
L o a d i m b a l a n c e a n d I F S d o m a i n d e -‐c o m p o s i t i o n
IFS grid IFS domain de-‐composition Time spent in Photolysis routine for ach MPI process
AtmosphereMonitoring Aerosol (LOA/LMD-‐Z) Chemistry (CB05)
C -‐ I F S a e r o s o l a n d c h e m i s t r y s c h e m e s
SSsmall SSmid SSlarge
DUsmall DUmid DUlarge
OMhphob OMhphil
BChphob BChphil
SO2 SO4
NOx H2O2 CH4 CO HNO3O3
CH2O PAR C2H4 OLE ALD2CH3OOH
ROOH ONIT C5H8 SO2 DMSPAN
SO4 NH4 MSA CH3COCHO O3 (strat)NH3
Pb NO HO2 CH3O2 OHRn
NO3 N2O5 HO2NO2 C2O3 RORNO2
XO2 XO2N NH2 CH3OH HCOOHRXPAR
C2H6 C2H5OH C3H8 C3H6 C10H16MCOOH
NO3 (aerosol) CH3COCH3 ACO2 IC3H7O2 HYPROPO2ISPD
PSCNOxA
NO3 fine NO3 coarse NH4
Zak Kipling
AtmosphereMonitoring Aerosol (LOA/LMD-‐Z) Chemistry (CB05)
C -‐ I F S a e r o s o l a n d c h e m i s t r y s c h e m e s
SSsmall SSmid SSlarge
DUsmall DUmid DUlarge
OMhphob OMhphil
BChphob BChphil
SO2 SO4
NOx H2O2 CH4 CO HNO3O3
CH2O PAR C2H4 OLE ALD2CH3OOH
ROOH ONIT C5H8 SO2 DMSPAN
SO4 NH4 MSA CH3COCHO O3 (strat)NH3
Pb NO HO2 CH3O2 OHRn
NO3 N2O5 HO2NO2 C2O3 RORNO2
XO2 XO2N NH2 CH3OH HCOOHRXPAR
C2H6 C2H5OH C3H8 C3H6 C10H16MCOOH
NO3 (aerosol) CH3COCH3 ACO2 IC3H7O2 HYPROPO2ISPD
PSCNOxA
NO3 fine NO3 coarse NH4
AtmosphereMonitoring Aerosol (LOA/LMD-‐Z) Chemistry (CB05)
C -‐ I F S a e r o s o l a n d c h e m i s t r y s c h e m e s
SSsmall SSmid SSlarge
DUsmall DUmid DUlarge
OMhphob OMhphil
BChphob BChphil
SO2 SO4
NOx H2O2 CH4 CO HNO3O3
CH2O PAR C2H4 OLE ALD2CH3OOH
ROOH ONIT C5H8 SO2 DMSPAN
SO4 NH4 MSA CH3COCHO O3 (strat)NH3
Pb NO HO2 CH3O2 OHRn
NO3 N2O5 HO2NO2 C2O3 RORNO2
XO2 XO2N NH2 CH3OH HCOOHRXPAR
C2H6 C2H5OH C3H8 C3H6 C10H16MCOOH
NO3 (aerosol) CH3COCH3 ACO2 IC3H7O2 HYPROPO2ISPD
PSCNOxA
NO3 fine NO3 coarse NH4
Zak Kipling
AtmosphereMonitoring
I n t r o d u c i n g n i t r a t e a e r o s o l
One-‐way coupling Two-‐way coupling
S. Remy
Background: surface nitrate aerosol from 2014 cycling forecastCircles: AIRBASE observations
AtmosphereMonitoring
N i t r a t e a e r o s o l : i m p a c t v s . A E R O N E T
obs ref 1-‐way 2-‐way
AtmosphereMonitoring
D r y D e p o s i t i o n H N O 3 2 0 0 3 -‐ 2 0 0 9
19/05/2017 11
Working on evaluating and improving wet and dry deposition fluxes could become joint topic for regional and global modelling groups
Dry deposition from EURAD
AtmosphereMonitoring
I F S G H G f o r e c a s t : n e w d e v e l o p m e n t s
CO2, CH4 and linear CO high resolution forecast
1. Coupling with CO2, CH4 and CO analysis.2. Resolution upgrade: from 16 to 9 km.3. Upgrade in the mass fixer to ensure monotonicity.4. Upgrade in emissions (EDGAR4.2FT2010)5. Tagged tracers to monitor:
Ø Biomass burning (CO, CO2, CH4)Ø Anthropogenic emissions (CO, CO2, CH4)Ø Biogenic fluxes (CO2, CH4)Ø Ocean fluxes
High resolution (9km) L137Low resolution (80km) L137Low resolution (80km) L60High resolution transport andlow resolution fluxes
Anna Agusti-‐Panareda
AtmosphereMonitoring • DAY 5 FORECAST
E x a m p l e o f t a g g e d t r a c e r s f o r X C O 2
BIOGENIC ANTHROPOGENIC
OCEAN FIRES
Anna Agusti-‐Panareda
AtmosphereMonitoring
1 0 Y e a r s o f A t m o s p h e r i c C o m p o s i t i o n F o r e c a s t a t E C M W F
10YEARS
COMPOSITION Forecast at ECMWF
First NRT publication on web site 17th of May 2007
Carbon Monoxide at 500 hPa T159
AtmosphereMonitoring
E v a l u a t i o n o f C O ( P B L ) a t F r a n k f u r t ( M O Z A I C / I A G O S )
Start of Composition NRT osuitewith dta assimilation: IFS/AER-‐MOZART
C-‐IFS(IFS-‐MOZART retired) T511 resolution
upgrade
Note:NRT CRT was nudgedto O-‐suite 2014-‐2016
AtmosphereMonitoring
E v a l u a t i o n o f t r o p o s p h e r i c o z o n e a t L e g i o n o w o
Ozone in the Planetary Boundary Layer overLegionowa/Poland
AtmosphereMonitoring
S u m m m a r y
• Over the last 10 years the quality of the GEMS/MACC/CAMS global NRT system has greatly improved
• Effort needed to maintain this progress in present and future • Attracting more user by:
– Smaller errors of existing CAMS products – New CAMS products such as
• deposition fluxes• new tracers (e.g HCN, phosphorus, Fe content in dust, volcanic ash and
SO2, stratospheric chemistry … )
• Further development of the global CAMS model remains a rewarding scientific and technical challenge
AtmosphereMonitoring
E v a l u a t i o n o f C O ( P B L ) a t F r a n k f u r t ( M O Z A I C / I A G O S )
Start of Composition NRT osuitewith dta assimilation: IFS/AER-‐MOZART
Control Forecast without assimilation• evnj (20070501-‐20071130) (bug fixes)• ez2m (20071201-‐20090430) -‐ MOZ.3• f45r (20090501-‐20090731) -‐ MOZ.3 • f7kn (20090731-‐20111130) -‐ MOZ3 (strato fix, SO2 added)• fkya (20111201-‐20140831) – (MOZ3.5 MACCity scaled)• g4o2 (20140901-‐20150901 -‐ C-‐IFS (with aerosol )• geuh (20150901-‐20160624) • gjjh (20160601-‐20170223 ) • gnhb (20170124-‐ present
O-‐suite with data assimilation, with aerosol• f1kd (20080801-‐20090730) MOZ.3• f93i (20090801-‐201209302)• fnyp (20121001-‐20140917) MOZ.3.5, T255• g4e2 (20140918-‐2015102012) C-‐IFS, T255• g9rr (20150903-‐2016062100 )• 0001 (2016062112 present) T511
C-‐IFS(IFS-‐MOZART retired)
T511 resolution upgrade
AtmosphereMonitoring
AtmosphereMonitoring
E v a l u a t i o n o f s t r a t o s p h e r i c o z o n e a t N e u m a y e r S t a t i o n
Note:NRT CRT was nudgedto O-‐suite 2014-‐2016
Start of Composition NRT osuitewith dta assimilation: IFS/AER-‐MOZART
Control Forecast without assimilation• evnj (20070501-‐20071130) (bug fixes)• ez2m (20071201-‐20090430) -‐ MOZ.3• f45r (20090501-‐20090731) -‐ MOZ.3 • f7kn (20090731-‐20111130) -‐ MOZ3 (strato fix, SO2 added)• fkya (20111201-‐20140831) – (MOZ3.5 MACCity scaled)• g4o2 (20140901-‐20150901 -‐ C-‐IFS (with aerosol )• geuh (20150901-‐20160624) • gjjh (20160601-‐20170223 ) • gnhb (20170124-‐ present
O-‐suite with data assimilation, with aerosol• f1kd (20080801-‐20090730) MOZ.3• f93i (20090801-‐201209302)• fnyp (20121001-‐20140917) MOZ.3.5, T255• g4e2 (20140918-‐2015102012) C-‐IFS, T255• g9rr (20150903-‐2016062100 )• 0001 (2016062112 present) T511