T H E C O M I N G O F E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y

E N E R G I Z I N G ‘ T H E G O O D L I F E ’

John Farrell Director of Democratic EnergyNovember 21, 2015

Presentation to Nebraska Sierra Club

A L I T T L E H I S T O R Y

Which best describes the electricity system?

Which best describes the electricity system?

Centralized Power

House

Commercial building

Factory

Transmission network

Distribution network

T I M E S , T H E Y A R E A C H A N G I N G

S AV I N G S T H R O U G H P S Y C H O L O G Y

1,221 kWh

846 kWh

448 kWh

Efficient neighbors

All neighbors

YOU

Bill date: Jul 1 -Jul 31Great

Good

More than average

>You used 47% less than your efficient neighbors

HOW YOU’RE DOING

S AV I N G S T H R O U G H P S Y C H O L O G Y

1,221 kWh

846 kWh

448 kWh

Efficient neighbors

All neighbors

YOU

Bill date: Jul 1 -Jul 31Great

Good

More than average

>You used 47% less than your efficient neighbors

HOW YOU’RE DOING

1-3% savings

D E M A N D M A N A G E M E N T

D E M A N D M A N A G E M E N T

1 utility, 330 megawatts =

S M A R T C O N T R O L

S M A R T C O N T R O L

10-12% savings on heating and 15% savings on cooling

E N E R G Y S T O R A G E ( S O O N )

When did electricity sales peak nationwide?• 2013

• 2010

• 2007

• 2005

• earlier

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

P E A K

S TA G N A N T R E TA I L S A L E S

trillion kilowatt-hours

What is the last year fossil fuel provided > 60% of new power plant capacity?

• 2013

• 2010

• 2007

• 2005

• earlier

Perc

ent o

f new

cap

acity

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Fossil fuel Renewable

Gig

awat

ts a

dd

ed (w

hite

line

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Q2

R I S I N G R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y S H A R E

June 10, 2015

of new power plant capacity

Perc

ent o

f new

cap

acity

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Coal Gas Wind Small Solar Big Solar

Gig

awat

ts a

dd

ed (w

hite

line

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Q2

SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH OF DISTRIBUTED SOLAR

44%

26%

18%

12%

June 10, 2015

N E B R A S K A FA R M E R S G O I N G S O L A R

Credit: Matt Ryerson/Lincoln Journal StarJournal Star 10/25/15, http://bit.ly/1HWLT2m

C O S T P R E S S U R E S

Lower wholesale prices mean utilities with excess generation sell for less

AV E R A G E R E S I D E N T I A L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E

0¢

3¢

6¢

9¢

12¢

15¢

12.6¢

8¢

R E L AT I V E LY L O W C O S T S ( H I S T O R I C A L LY )

At a high environmental

cost

Centralized PowerYesterday Tomorrow

Local CHP plant

Storage

House with geothermal

Clean, local power

2015

House

Commercial building

Factory

Transmission network

Distribution network

F O R W A R D O R B A C K W A R D ?

F E E L S L I K E F O R W A R D

“The nice thing about solar, when is the sun blaring the most? In the summer. So it matches up with our peak

demand and really helps us.”

Shelley Sahling-Zart

Journal Star 10/25/15, http://bit.ly/1HWLT2m

F E E L S L I K E F O R W A R D

“The nice thing about solar, when is the sun blaring the most? In the summer. So it matches up with our peak

demand and really helps us.”

Shelley Sahling-Zart

“we’re a long ways from [the 1% net metering limit]”

Journal Star 10/25/15, http://bit.ly/1HWLT2m

B A C K W A R D B I L L I N G P R O P O S E D

B A C K W A R D B I L L I N G P R O P O S E D

F R U G A L U S E R S PAY M O R E

B I G U S E R S PAY L E S S

Energy efficiency

Makes cheapest energy less attractive

Fixed costs don’t mean

fixed charges in most businesses

F I X E D C H A R G E S

Fixed charges subsidize poor

choices (because customers always pay)

Fixed charges slay solar

N E B R A S K A I S N O T A L O N ESTATES FACING CHALLENGES TO DISTRIBUTED POWER

Sources: Renewable Energy World, Greentech Media, IREC, Vote Solar and many more

10/21/15http://bit.ly/DG-UnderFireMapData-ILSR

W H AT ’ S P O S S I B L E ?

H O W M A N Y S TAT E S C A N G E T 1 0 0 % O R M O R E O F T H E I R E L E C T R I C I T Y L O C A L LY ?

• 8

• 15

• 30

• 42

• all of them

S TAT E C L E A N E N E R G Y P O T E N T I A L

Source: Energy Self-Reliant States, 2nd Edition

100% or more 75 to 100%

50 to 75% 25 to 50% 25% or less

Potential percent of

power from local renewables

30 states!

Residential and Commercial roofs

L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L

50% or more 25 to 50% 10 to 25%

25-50%

50%+

15-25%

P O T E N T I A L P E R C E N T O F P O W E R F R O M L O C A L R O O F T O P

S O L A R

8500

590

750

30,000

16,000

7200

11,000

1800

990

360012,000

780

7000

8200

510011,000

190026,0002400

7300

5100

360

26001100

1200

800

14004800

1800

32,000

5000

580

970

2300

4100

4400

2900

7200

6800

2800

7100

11,000

11,000

550010,000

12,000

20

1140700

4000

Percent of Sales1-5%5-10%10% or moreSource: http://www.ilsr.org/commercial-roofop-revolution/

*No incentives

D I S T R I B U T E D S O L A R P O T E N T I A L AT PA R I T Y * B Y 2 0 2 2

(Megawatts, residential & commercial)

2300 megawatts

E N O U G H S O L A R T O M E E T P E A K

2256 megawatts at peak winter energy use

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

$0.00

$2.50

$5.00

$7.50

$10.00

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Weighted Avg. Cost ($/W)

Cumulative Capacity (MW)

SOLAR INSTALLS DRIVE RAPID PRICE DECLINE

Everyone a Georgetown?

No municipal utilities

100% wind/solar at 9 to 10.2¢ per kWh

100% wind/solar at 7.5 to 9¢ per kWh

100% wind/solar at 5.9 to 7.5¢ per kWh

5.9 to 7.5¢ per kWh

9 to 10.2¢ per kWh

7.5 to 9¢ per kWh

7.5 to 9¢ per kWh

The per-kilowatt-hour cost for each state’s largest municipal electric utility to mimic Georgetown, TX, and supply the equivalent of 100%

or more of its retail sales from wind and sun alone

The Low Cost of 100% Renewable

W H AT C A N W E D O ?

R E A D U P

F I R E B A C KSTATES FACING CHALLENGES TO DISTRIBUTED POWER

Sources: Renewable Energy World, Greentech Media, IREC, Vote Solar and many more

10/21/15http://bit.ly/DG-UnderFireMapData-ILSR

All Nebraska utilities are

public power, owned by the

cities they serve!

E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y I S C O M I N G

Credit: Markus Lütkemeyer via Flickr

The 20th century utility

had few resources to

juggle

The 21st century utility may not

have the capacity alone

E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y I N A C T I O N

INDEPENDENTLOCAL GRID MANAGER

= super efficient buildings

A solution that New York is

pursuing

A likely outcome for a monopoly that makes less sense as control

disperses

T H A N K Y O U !@johnffarrell

www.ilsr.org

C H A N G I N G T H E R U L E S

P R O V I D I N G T O O L S

1 0 0 % R E N E WA B L E L O C A L E C O N O M Y

H U M A N S C A L E

L O C A L O W N E R S H I P

D E M O C R AT I C A U T H O R I T Y

I L L U S T R AT I N G T H E V I S I O N