can the macd change your trading

49

Upload: netpickstrading

Post on 09-Feb-2017

341 views

Category:

Education


9 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Can The MACD Change Your Trading
Page 2: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

One of the first indicators I ever experimented with was the Moving

Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator.

Page 3: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

It was used on a higher time frame to identify the direction to trade on the

lower time frame.

Page 4: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

Depending on the condition of the indicator, I would also use it to

objectively decide if a market was in a state conducive to good trading.

Page 5: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

I STILL USE IT TODAY HOWEVER I USE A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE STANDARD

OUT OF THE BOX SETTINGS.

Page 6: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

Let's look at the makeup of this trading indicator and see what makes it tick. Perhaps you will find a use for MACD in your own trading toolbox after you

do the proper back testing of the effectiveness.

Page 7: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

WHAT IS THE MACD INDICATOR The MACD indicator is considered, in a broad sense, a momentum indicator and to be more specific, it measures

the change in momentum There are four parts to the MACD:

Page 8: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

Fast Line (moving average) Slow Line (moving average) Zero Line Histogram (not shown)

Page 9: Can The MACD Change Your Trading
Page 10: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

The fast line is simply is the value of the slow line (set at 26) subtracted from the

value of the fast line (set at 12).

The standard setting of the MACD is 12,26,9.

Page 11: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

There are three important MACD features I want you to note and have

plotted two exponential moving averages, the 12,26 to highlight them

Page 12: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

A. Notice the difference between the two moving averages on price and the

difference between the red fast line and the zero line (3). This indicates

quite a bit of momentum at that current time.

Page 13: Can The MACD Change Your Trading
Page 14: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

B. The moving averages on price are relatively tight and the fast line on the MACD is almost hugging the zero line.

This indicates a period of lower momentum.

Page 15: Can The MACD Change Your Trading
Page 16: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

C. Notice the red fast line crossing over the zero line and at the same

time, the moving averages on price are crossing.

Page 17: Can The MACD Change Your Trading
Page 18: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

While we may say the fast line represents momentum the fact is that is measures the rate of change in price

- the change in momentum.

Page 19: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

THE MACD SLOW LINE - SIGNAL LINE The slow line (#2) is often called the signal line and with our settings, it is the 9 period moving average of the

fast line.

Page 20: Can The MACD Change Your Trading
Page 21: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

This is used by many for trend determination by comparing the

position of the slow line to the fast line. If the fast line is over the slow line, the trend would be considered

up. The opposite is true for the reverse.

Page 22: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

You can see the uptrend starting on the left had the fast line crossing the slow line to the upside (also note the

moving average cross).

Page 23: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

Price rolls over, as does the red line, as it goes below the signal line.

Another change in trend takes place and then something interesting

happens.

Page 24: Can The MACD Change Your Trading
Page 25: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

Note the rectangle and look at the lines on the MACD and the state of the

price bars. I often used those MACD conditions to seek out another market

or a different time frame.

Page 26: Can The MACD Change Your Trading
Page 27: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

HOW TO USE THE MACD INDICATOR There are a few ways you can use the

Moving Average Convergence and Divergence indicator and I am going to

cover more in-depth usage in a later article.

Page 28: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

TREND DETERMINATION In the past, I would use this on two

different time frames using the Dinapoli settings of 8,17,9. This chart show the daily chart direction of the MACD drilled down to the four hour

time frame.

Page 29: Can The MACD Change Your Trading
Page 30: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

The first uptrend area gave a trade off of a prior area of resistance just off the

view of this chart.

Page 31: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

We turn over and are only looking at shorting and price rallied up to a

previous support area, tested, and dropped.

Page 32: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

We hit a zone where the MACD lines were hugging and that would have us in a no trade zone (NTZ) as direction

was not clear.

Page 33: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

Currently, the MACD is registering a shorting condition on the higher time frame and this zone has two areas of

interest.

Page 34: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

The first is not marked but it is where price found support during the

previous downtrend which was then broken through.

Page 35: Can The MACD Change Your Trading
Page 36: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

A revisit to that zone or the one above may give a setup and you have to use your triggers to get you into the trade.

Page 37: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

TRADE TRIGGERS There are traders who use the cross of

the MACD lines as a trigger into a trade. I personally have never used it

in that fashion at these higher settings. I find it far too slow.

Page 38: Can The MACD Change Your Trading
Page 39: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

Just by looking at the above chart, you can see that using it as a trigger, you

would have gotten a trigger long after the market advanced in the buying

condition. In the selling condition, you would have missed that trade

altogether.

Page 40: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

DIVERGENCE I have removed the slow line so you

can focus on the fast line of the MACD. Notice the price made a lower low

than the one before it.

Page 41: Can The MACD Change Your Trading
Page 42: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

The fast line has put in a higher trough than the previous. While you would

not take a trade based only on divergence, it may have you tightening

stops on current trades. This is showing that the current run of

momentum is coming to an end (or at least a pause).

Page 43: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

Depending on your experience as a trader and your work with the MACD, you may (in this example) be prepared

to buy the first dip after price advanced if price showed some push

to the upside.

Page 44: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

Looking once again at the red line, you can see that it went almost vertical

which indicates a healthy amount of momentum at this time. Looking for a pullback or a range and then break out pullback may have you considering a

long trade.

Page 45: Can The MACD Change Your Trading
Page 46: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

In future articles, I am going to cover other ways to use the MACD as a

trading tool.

Page 47: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

There are ways to use it as a trigger into a trade as well as alert you what

to do with the next swing in price.

Page 48: Can The MACD Change Your Trading

In the meantime, try some multiple time frame trend determination to see

if it's something that catches your interest.

Page 49: Can The MACD Change Your Trading