can the macd change your trading
TRANSCRIPT
One of the first indicators I ever experimented with was the Moving
Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator.
It was used on a higher time frame to identify the direction to trade on the
lower time frame.
Depending on the condition of the indicator, I would also use it to
objectively decide if a market was in a state conducive to good trading.
I STILL USE IT TODAY HOWEVER I USE A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE STANDARD
OUT OF THE BOX SETTINGS.
Let's look at the makeup of this trading indicator and see what makes it tick. Perhaps you will find a use for MACD in your own trading toolbox after you
do the proper back testing of the effectiveness.
WHAT IS THE MACD INDICATOR The MACD indicator is considered, in a broad sense, a momentum indicator and to be more specific, it measures
the change in momentum There are four parts to the MACD:
Fast Line (moving average) Slow Line (moving average) Zero Line Histogram (not shown)
The fast line is simply is the value of the slow line (set at 26) subtracted from the
value of the fast line (set at 12).
The standard setting of the MACD is 12,26,9.
There are three important MACD features I want you to note and have
plotted two exponential moving averages, the 12,26 to highlight them
A. Notice the difference between the two moving averages on price and the
difference between the red fast line and the zero line (3). This indicates
quite a bit of momentum at that current time.
B. The moving averages on price are relatively tight and the fast line on the MACD is almost hugging the zero line.
This indicates a period of lower momentum.
C. Notice the red fast line crossing over the zero line and at the same
time, the moving averages on price are crossing.
While we may say the fast line represents momentum the fact is that is measures the rate of change in price
- the change in momentum.
THE MACD SLOW LINE - SIGNAL LINE The slow line (#2) is often called the signal line and with our settings, it is the 9 period moving average of the
fast line.
This is used by many for trend determination by comparing the
position of the slow line to the fast line. If the fast line is over the slow line, the trend would be considered
up. The opposite is true for the reverse.
You can see the uptrend starting on the left had the fast line crossing the slow line to the upside (also note the
moving average cross).
Price rolls over, as does the red line, as it goes below the signal line.
Another change in trend takes place and then something interesting
happens.
Note the rectangle and look at the lines on the MACD and the state of the
price bars. I often used those MACD conditions to seek out another market
or a different time frame.
HOW TO USE THE MACD INDICATOR There are a few ways you can use the
Moving Average Convergence and Divergence indicator and I am going to
cover more in-depth usage in a later article.
TREND DETERMINATION In the past, I would use this on two
different time frames using the Dinapoli settings of 8,17,9. This chart show the daily chart direction of the MACD drilled down to the four hour
time frame.
The first uptrend area gave a trade off of a prior area of resistance just off the
view of this chart.
We turn over and are only looking at shorting and price rallied up to a
previous support area, tested, and dropped.
We hit a zone where the MACD lines were hugging and that would have us in a no trade zone (NTZ) as direction
was not clear.
Currently, the MACD is registering a shorting condition on the higher time frame and this zone has two areas of
interest.
The first is not marked but it is where price found support during the
previous downtrend which was then broken through.
A revisit to that zone or the one above may give a setup and you have to use your triggers to get you into the trade.
TRADE TRIGGERS There are traders who use the cross of
the MACD lines as a trigger into a trade. I personally have never used it
in that fashion at these higher settings. I find it far too slow.
Just by looking at the above chart, you can see that using it as a trigger, you
would have gotten a trigger long after the market advanced in the buying
condition. In the selling condition, you would have missed that trade
altogether.
DIVERGENCE I have removed the slow line so you
can focus on the fast line of the MACD. Notice the price made a lower low
than the one before it.
The fast line has put in a higher trough than the previous. While you would
not take a trade based only on divergence, it may have you tightening
stops on current trades. This is showing that the current run of
momentum is coming to an end (or at least a pause).
Depending on your experience as a trader and your work with the MACD, you may (in this example) be prepared
to buy the first dip after price advanced if price showed some push
to the upside.
Looking once again at the red line, you can see that it went almost vertical
which indicates a healthy amount of momentum at this time. Looking for a pullback or a range and then break out pullback may have you considering a
long trade.
In future articles, I am going to cover other ways to use the MACD as a
trading tool.
There are ways to use it as a trigger into a trade as well as alert you what
to do with the next swing in price.
In the meantime, try some multiple time frame trend determination to see
if it's something that catches your interest.