Can we have our Can we have our planet and heat it, too?planet and heat it, too?

P310/P510 Fall 2011P310/P510 Fall 2011Climate DiscussionClimate Discussion

My conclusionsMy conclusions The greenhouse effectThe greenhouse effect Climate change – COClimate change – CO22

Climate change - temperatureClimate change - temperature What the models sayWhat the models say Recent DataRecent Data

Frost Fair on the Thames 1683Frost Fair on the Thames 1683

During the mini-ice age the Thames froze During the mini-ice age the Thames froze solidly on many occasions. London Bridge solidly on many occasions. London Bridge with more than 100 shops was built in 1209 with more than 100 shops was built in 1209 and was the only bridge across the Thames and was the only bridge across the Thames until the late 1700’s.until the late 1700’s.

My My ConclusionConclusion That we are obliged to move away from That we are obliged to move away from

our own non-sustainable and climate-our own non-sustainable and climate-damaging fossil fuel use as quickly as damaging fossil fuel use as quickly as possible. possible. BBB – 6/19/2010BBB – 6/19/2010

“If not for the greenhouse effect, we may have been able to postpone (the decision to look beyond fossil fuels) to the 22nd century, because there are massive coal reserves available, and coal can be made into synthetic fuels. We could have developed the world economy based on fossil fuels …. But with the greenhouse effect, we have to make the transition much earlier, perhaps in the early 21st century. That means that we have to look very seriously at the alternatives.” Martin Hoffert, Professor, New York UniversityMartin Hoffert, Professor, New York University

GreenhouseGreenhouse Effect*Effect*

Two transparent Two transparent windows:windows:

Solar radiation – Solar radiation – visible (0.3-0.8 visible (0.3-0.8 m)m)

Earth radiation – Earth radiation – infrared (7-15 infrared (7-15 m)m)

Major infrared absorbers:Major infrared absorbers:- CHCH44, Natural Gas, Natural Gas- NN22O, Nitrous OxideO, Nitrous Oxide- OO33, Ozone, Ozone- COCO22, Carbon Dioxide, Carbon Dioxide- HH22O, WaterO, Water

* Piexoto & Oort

CH4

N2O

O2,O3

CO2

H2O

Global Surface Temperature to 2010Global Surface Temperature to 2010

The graph shows global annual surface temperatures relative to 1951-1980 mean temperatures. 1.) The last decade was the hottest ever recorded. 2.) 2010 is the hottest year since records have been kept.3.) The brown line shows the 5-year average: Long-term trends are more apparent. (Image credit: NASA/GISS)

Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)

2011 Mauna Loa CO2011 Mauna Loa CO22Mauna Loa Monthly Mean CO2 in parts per million (ppm).

August 2011 390.02 ppm

August 2011 388.15 ppm

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Last 1000 years of COLast 1000 years of CO22 390 ppm

280 ppm

TOTAL

Total Sun = 1367 W/m-2

Since 2007:Since 2007:Rapid loss of Arctic sea iceRapid loss of Arctic sea ice

Ice-free

Since 2007:Since 2007:Recent sea-level rise measurementsRecent sea-level rise measurements

Merrifield, et al., 2009:Merrifield, et al., 2009:

(1993-2008) (3.5 ± 0.4) mm/yr(1993-2008) (3.5 ± 0.4) mm/yr

IPCC 2007:IPCC 2007:

(1993-2003) (3.1 ± 0.7) mm/yr(1993-2003) (3.1 ± 0.7) mm/yr

Climate Change: An Impacts SummaryClimate Change: An Impacts Summary Snow packSnow pack in Himalaya, Rocky Mountains in Himalaya, Rocky Mountains summer drought in summer drought in

downstream areas.downstream areas.

Open ArcticOpen Arctic water in summer absorbs far more solar energy than water in summer absorbs far more solar energy than when ice-covered. [Positive feedback]when ice-covered. [Positive feedback]

Ocean expansionOcean expansion (warming) and Greenland, Antarctica, Northern (warming) and Greenland, Antarctica, Northern Canada rapid melting Canada rapid melting rapid glacial flow rapid glacial flow Sea level Sea level riserise

ThresholdsThresholds, when crossed, make rapid transitions:, when crossed, make rapid transitions: Fresh waterFresh water melting into the North Atlantic slows the Gulf Stream. melting into the North Atlantic slows the Gulf Stream. Ocean surface temperatureOcean surface temperature above 27 above 27ooC C increased hurricane increased hurricane

frequency and severity.frequency and severity.

MODELSMODELSJ. Hansen et al.,J. Hansen et al.,

Science 308, 1431, 2005.Science 308, 1431, 2005.

Estimates of human & Estimates of human & natural forcings 1880-natural forcings 1880-2005.2005.

These forcings These forcings reproduce the last 125 reproduce the last 125 years of observed years of observed temperatures.temperatures.

Extrapolate model?Extrapolate model?

Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM)

Multi-model averages (IPCC 2007)

SUSTAINABILITY – “roughly, the ability to meet our needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs.” Brundtland Commission (1987)

PresentPresent Oil/Gas/UOil/Gas/U Near TermNear Term Climate ChangeClimate Change Innovation Long Term

COAL COAL X CARBON SEQ.

OIL X oil X

GAS X gas X

URANIUM X uranium BREEDERS

TAR SANDS X

SOLAR (P.V., Wind, OTEC, Biomass..)

FUSION

GAS CLATH.

GEOTHERMAL

Depletion

Martin Hoffert:Martin Hoffert: If it were not for If it were not for climate change, we would have had an climate change, we would have had an

additional 150 years to develop additional 150 years to develop alternative energy sources.alternative energy sources.

““Wedges” of U.S. Carbon DisplacementWedges” of U.S. Carbon DisplacementAm. Solar Energy Society’s “Tackling Climate Am. Solar Energy Society’s “Tackling Climate

Change in the U.S.”Change in the U.S.”

Conservation & Efficiency

Carbon Displacement by Region in Am. Solar Energy Carbon Displacement by Region in Am. Solar Energy Society’s, “Tackling Climate Change”Society’s, “Tackling Climate Change”

Carbon-neutralCarbon-neutral EnergiesEnergiesBiomassBiomass:: Ethanol from sugar caneEthanol from sugar cane Biodiesel from soybeans, rape Biodiesel from soybeans, rape

seed, jatropha curcasseed, jatropha curcas Ethanol from celluloseEthanol from cellulose Gasification to syngasGasification to syngas Pellets from compressed Pellets from compressed

biomass wastebiomass waste – [CHP - UEA] – [CHP - UEA]Geothermal storageGeothermal storage:: Vertical/horiz. loop systemsVertical/horiz. loop systemsSolarSolar: : passive, active, windpassive, active, wind [T] [T] OTEC, waves, tidesOTEC, waves, tides Photovoltaics Photovoltaics [T] [T] Direct Solar Direct Solar – e.g. Spain – e.g. Spain [T] [T] Direct – Stirling Engine ------>Direct – Stirling Engine ------>

Photovoltaics: Photovoltaics: An Example in An Example in BloomingtonBloomington

http://physics.indiana.edu/~brabson/PV/PV.html

https://www.hobolink.com/p/61f4eecea80fc72d9b573157ac4ddec6  

Mass. Audubon Center - Boston

Zicer Centre – UEA – Norwich, UKCoal-driven steam – Norfolk, UK

Duke Energy - Grid

Net Metering

PV Array

Inverter

Breaker box

Home appliance

DC to AC

An Assessment of PhotovoltaicsAn Assessment of PhotovoltaicsYesYes

1.1. Carbon neutral energy sourceCarbon neutral energy source

2.2. In phase with need in summerIn phase with need in summer

3.3. Mature technology (Mature technology (=18-=18-20%)20%)

4.4. Low maintenanceLow maintenance

5.5. Long lifetime (>25 years)Long lifetime (>25 years)

6.6. Rapidly falling price Rapidly falling price (Germany)(Germany)

7.7. US Government subsidy US Government subsidy (30%)(30%)

8.8. Rising price of electricity Rising price of electricity (Cost of carbon)(Cost of carbon)

ButBut

1.1. Intermittent source (smart grid)Intermittent source (smart grid)

2.2. Expensive (Installed cost ~$4/watt Expensive (Installed cost ~$4/watt vs. $1.50/watt - coal)vs. $1.50/watt - coal)

3.3. Fast developing technologyFast developing technology

4.4. Fragile (hail)Fragile (hail)

5.5. Installation dangers (falls)Installation dangers (falls)

Wind TurbinesWind TurbinesHow they work: How they work:

1.1. All electric generators push All electric generators push wires through magnetic wires through magnetic fieldsfields

2.2. The mechanical energy The mechanical energy electrical energy (95% eff)electrical energy (95% eff)

3.3. Bicycle generators and Bicycle generators and crank radios work the same crank radios work the same way.way.

4.4. Converting from the turbine Converting from the turbine frequency to standard frequency to standard frequency (60 Hz) is easy. frequency (60 Hz) is easy. You convert to direct current You convert to direct current and back to alternating and back to alternating current.current.

Wind Energy in the USWind Energy in the US 1980-1996 US led wind power1980-1996 US led wind power 1997-2007 Germany led.1997-2007 Germany led. 2008 US took back the lead 2008 US took back the lead

(24,000 MW total)(24,000 MW total) 2009 China now leads (10,000 2009 China now leads (10,000

MW new wind power)MW new wind power)

2008 World capacity 121,000 MW2008 World capacity 121,000 MW 27,000 MW new capacity (+29%)27,000 MW new capacity (+29%) New US electric generating New US electric generating

capacity in 2008:capacity in 2008: Natural gas 46%Natural gas 46% Wind 42%Wind 42% Coal 14%Coal 14%

Texas has 9,000 MW capacityTexas has 9,000 MW capacity

Indiana WindIndiana Wind

Benton County Wind FarmBenton County Wind Farm 130.5 MW (87 turbines, 1.5 MW)130.5 MW (87 turbines, 1.5 MW) April 2008 – Duke Energy will buy April 2008 – Duke Energy will buy

the power for 20 years.the power for 20 years.

Fowler Ridge Wind FarmFowler Ridge Wind Farm 400 MW (182 Vestas 1.65 MW 400 MW (182 Vestas 1.65 MW

turbines, 40 Clipper 2.5 MW)turbines, 40 Clipper 2.5 MW) 200 MW (133 GE turbines, 1.5 200 MW (133 GE turbines, 1.5

MW)MW)

An Assessment of An Assessment of Wind PowerWind Power

YesYes::

1.) Carbon-neutral source1.) Carbon-neutral source

2.) Large renewable source2.) Large renewable source

3.) Mature technology3.) Mature technology

4.) Cost competitive 4.) Cost competitive (4¢/KWh)(4¢/KWh)

5.) Off-shore (Cape Wind) 5.) Off-shore (Cape Wind) approvalapproval

ButBut::

1.) Inadequate grid1.) Inadequate grid

2.) Land-based wind not 2.) Land-based wind not near population centersnear population centers

3.) Locally intermittent3.) Locally intermittent

4.) Noise/Birds/Esthetics4.) Noise/Birds/Esthetics

My My ConclusionConclusion That we are obliged to move away That we are obliged to move away

from our own non-sustainable and from our own non-sustainable and climate-damaging fossil fuel use as climate-damaging fossil fuel use as quickly as possible. (quickly as possible. (BBB – BBB – 6/20/106/20/10))

1.) Anthropogenic CO1.) Anthropogenic CO22 raises the Earth’s raises the Earth’s

surface temperature.surface temperature.

2.) An estimated 80% reduction in CO2.) An estimated 80% reduction in CO22 by by

2050 will avoid a 22050 will avoid a 2ooC temperature rise.C temperature rise.

3.) Half of this reduction will come from the 3.) Half of this reduction will come from the use of carbon-neutral energy sources.use of carbon-neutral energy sources.

4.) The other half will come from reduced 4.) The other half will come from reduced energy use (conservation/efficiency)energy use (conservation/efficiency)

5.) Changing our habits is not easy.5.) Changing our habits is not easy.

End of P310/P510 slidesEnd of P310/P510 slides