Cannabis Market in Europe:Cannabis Market in Europe:Cannabis Market in Europe: Cannabis Market in Europe: A Growing Domestic MarketA Growing Domestic Market

(Fi t R lt )(Fi t R lt )(First Results)(First Results)

OFDT 3 d S d

Jean-Michel Costes, Christian Ben Lakhdar

Identifying Europe’s information needs 3 avenue du Stade

de France

93218 Saint-Denis

La Plaine cedex

Tel : 01 41 62 77 16

for effective drug policy

Lisbon, EMCCDATel : 01 41 62 77 16

Fax : 01 41 62 77 00

www.ofdt.fr

,7 May

Main goalsMain goals

t t d i f h bi ito get a good overview of where cannabis is coming from in Europe, domestic production, the types of products available, the market shares of different products amongst users, etc.To collect and analyse recent and reliable o co ect a d a a yse ece t a d e ab edata on different cannabis products potency in order to get an overview of levels andin order to get an overview of levels and trends in cannabis potency in Europe.

The Team

• Christian BEN LAKHDAR (OFDT)• Laurence DUJOURDY (IPSL)Laurence DUJOURDY (IPSL)• David WEIBERGER (INHES)

F b i BESACIER (IPSL)• Fabrice BESACIER (IPSL)• Nacer LALAM (INHES)

• Consultants: Les King (UK), Toine Spapens (NL)Consultants: Les King (UK), Toine Spapens (NL)

First resultsFirst results

Estimated volumes of cannabis used• Estimated volumes of cannabis used• Map of the cannabis routes• European cannabis markets: resin vs. herb• Price elasticity of the demand for cannabisce e ast c ty o t e de a d o ca ab s

products

Estimated volume of cannabis usedEstimated volume of cannabis used

197KgFigure 1. Estimation of cannabis used per country in Kilos (several

years: between 2003 & 2007).

372 1

929

8 611

290 1

28

2

350 000

400 000g years: between 2003 & 2007).

2 290

253 4

5223

6 253

250 000

300 000

924100 000

150 000

200 000

55 92

438

430

37 26

434

961

30 289

27 35

217

735

12 89

611

989

11 440

10 35

89 8

438 6

386 2

946 1

574 58

72 6

772 0

041 1

73

0

50 000

100 000

0

Spain

France UK

German

yIta

lyech

Republic

Poland

Belgium

Netherl

ands

Austria

Portug

alDen

markHun

gary

Slovakia

Irelan

dGree

ceNorw

ayFinlandBulg

aria

Sweden

Latvia

Lithu

ania

Estonia

Cyprus

Czec NSource: EMCDDA, INPES.Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.

Estimated volume of cannabis usedEstimated volume of cannabis used

197KgFigure 1. Estimation of cannabis used per country in Kilos (several

years: between 2003 & 2007).

372 1

929

8 611

290 1

28

2

350 000

400 000g years: between 2003 & 2007).

Global volume : 1750 tons [1500; 1900]2 290

253 4

5223

6 253

250 000

300 000Global volume : 1750 tons [1500; 1900]

924100 000

150 000

200 000

55 92

438

430

37 26

434

961

30 289

27 35

217

735

12 89

611

989

11 440

10 35

89 8

438 6

386 2

946 1

574 58

72 6

772 0

041 1

73

0

50 000

100 000

0

Spain

France UK

German

yIta

lyech

Republic

Poland

Belgium

Netherl

ands

Austria

Portug

alDen

markHun

gary

Slovakia

Irelan

dGree

ceNorw

ayFinlandBulg

aria

Sweden

Latvia

Lithu

ania

Estonia

Cyprus

Czec NSource: EMCDDA, INPES.Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.

Estimated volume of cannabis usedEstimated volume of cannabis used

these estimations of volumes lead to a commercial retail value of 9.6 billions of euros [8.5; 10.8]. For comparison the European markets forFor comparison, the European markets for alcohol and tobacco are respectively worth 92 f 1 3 f92 billions of euros and 143 billions of euros(Euromonitor, 2007, 2008).( )

Indirect indicator: transit and final destination

Map 1. Ratio between the annual mean seizures of cannabis (2001-2006) and the estimations of annual volume of cannabis used by country (%)and the estimations of annual volume of cannabis used by country (%).

Indirect indicator: front door, transit and final destination

%Graph 2. Ratio between annual mean of cannabis seizures (2001-2006) and estimation

120

140% of cannabis used per country in %.

80

100 European mean: 60

80 26.15%

20

40

0

Spain

Greece

herla

nds

Portug

a lBelg

iumIre

land

Bulgari

a UKFranceSwed

enNorw

ay Italy

Denmark

Finland

Cyprus

Lithu

ania

German

yEsto

niaAus

triaSlov

akiaHun

gary

Poland

Latvia

Republic

GNeth

er Po Be I Bu F Sw No De F C Lith

Ge E A Slo Hu PCze

ch Rep

Source: UNODC, EMCDDA, INPES.Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.

Indirect indicator: front door, transit and final destination

%Graph 2. Ratio between annual mean of cannabis seizures (2001-2006) and estimation

120

140% of cannabis used per country in %.

80

100 European mean: 60

80 26.15%

20

40

0

Spain

Greece

herla

nds

Portug

a lBelg

iumIre

land

Bulgari

a UKFranceSwed

enNorw

ay Italy

Denmark

Finland

Cyprus

Lithu

ania

German

yEsto

niaAus

triaSlov

akiaHun

gary

Poland

Latvia

Republic

GNeth

er Po Be I Bu F Sw No De F C Lith

Ge E A Slo Hu PCze

ch Rep

Source: UNODC, EMCDDA, INPES.Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.

Indirect indicator: front door, transit and final destination

%Graph 2. Ratio between annual mean of cannabis seizures (2001-2006) and estimation

120

140% of cannabis used per country in %.

Front Door Final destination countries

80

100

Transit countries

countries

60

80 Transit countries

20

40

0

Spain

Greece

herla

nds

Portug

a lBelg

iumIre

land

Bulgari

a UKFranceSwed

enNorw

ay Italy

Denmark

Finland

Cyprus

Lithu

ania

German

yEsto

niaAus

triaSlov

akiaHun

gary

Poland

Latvia

Republic

GNeth

er Po Be I Bu F Sw No De F C Lith

Ge E A Slo Hu PCze

ch Rep

Source: UNODC, EMCDDA, INPES.Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.

Extra European Cannabis RoutesExtra European Cannabis Routes

Netherlands

Albania

Czech Rep

Morrocco

Cannabis market : resin vs herbCannabis market : resin vs. herbRatio of Seizures of herbal cannabis and cannabis resin between 2001 and 2006.

resin herb

Cannabis market : prices trendCannabis market : prices trend

H b l C bi C bi R i

Table 1. Growth rate of deflated average prices of cannabis products (European sub-regions*)

Herbal Cannabis Cannabis Resin Eastern Europe** -28,64% -19,37%Northern Europe 10,13% -39,57%S th E 7 52% 20 73%Southern Europe -7,52% 20,73%Western Europe 15,22% 11,98%

A th t f th E i 2 70% 6 56%Average growth rate of the European regions -2,70% -6,56%

* Based on the UNO composition of geographical sub-regions** Czech Republic Excluded Czech Republic ExcludedSource: EMCDDA

Cannabis market : prices trendCannabis market : prices trend

H b l C bi C bi R i

Table 1. Growth rate of deflated average prices of cannabis products (European sub-regions*)

Herbal Cannabis Cannabis Resin Eastern Europe** -28,64% -19,37%Northern Europe 10,13% -39,57%S th E 7 52% 20 73%Southern Europe -7,52% 20,73%Western Europe 15,22% 11,98%

A th t f th E i 2 70% 6 56%Average growth rate of the European regions -2,70% -6,56%

* Based on the UNO composition of geographical sub-regions** Czech Republic Excluded Czech Republic ExcludedSource: EMCDDA

Price elasticity of cannabis demandPrice elasticity of cannabis demand

Resin vs HerbResin vs HerbPrice Parity Purchase Power(European standard)Cross-sectional analysis (EuropeanCross-sectional analysis (European countries)Age and Sex of users (monthly users)

Price elasticity of demand for ResinPrice elasticity of demand for Resin

Price elasticity of demand for HerbPrice elasticity of demand for Herb

Price elasticity of demand for HerbPrice elasticity of demand for Herb

ConclusionConclusion

On-going issues:On going issues:

European Domestic Production issue.p

Typology of growersyp gy g

And Potency of cannabis products.y p

OBSERVATOIRE FRANÇAIS DES DROGUES ET DES TOXICOMANIES

(French monitoring Centre for Drug Addiction)

3, Avenue du Stade de France93218 St Denis la Plaine cedex93218 St Denis la Plaine cedex

Tel : + 00 33 (1) 41 62 77 16 - Fax : + 00 33 (1) 41 62 77 00( ) ( )

Email : ofdt@ofdt.fr - Website : www.ofdt.fr

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