cap40 event: conference with tim harris 24th april 2013
DESCRIPTION
Event organized by Cap40. Conference presented by Tim Harris on the South African Opportunity: analysis of SA political situation, economy and 2013 budget. Watch Tim Harris interview here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRRlZET3dkg Join Cap40 Community here: http://cap40.co.za/TRANSCRIPT
Event Organized by:
The South African Opportunity: analysis of SA political situation, economy and 2013 budget
24 April 2013Tim Harris MP
2012: A bad year for South Africa…
• Widespread strikes in mining & transport
• Sovereign Credit Ratings downgrades from Moody’s,
Standard & Poor’s & Fitch
• Foreign direct investment down 44% year-on-year
• R200m state spending on President Zuma’s personal
uncovered
2013 Budget Analysis
2013 Budget Highlights
GOOD
Youth Wage Subsidy
Special Economic Zones
Small Business Tax Review
Incentives for Charitable Giving
NDP Alignment
NOT SO GOOD
A drag on African Growth
Infrastructure spending
Mining Tax review
Stealth taxes
NDP Accountability
Three underlying problems
with the South African economy…
High structural unemployment…
5
Inability to achieve high growth rates when times are good…
Average Growth (2002-
2010)
Highest Growth (2002-2010)
Peru 6,3 % 9,8 %
Ghana 6,0 % 8,4 %
Vietnam 7,3 % 8,5 %
Singapore 6,5 % 14,5 %
Panama 6,6 % 12,1 %
Upper Middle Income Countries
6,4 % 8,9 %
South Africa 3,6 % 5,6 %
• Education remains broken
• Ideological deadlock within ANC’s ruling alliance
• The Cosatu trade union’s dominance
• A National Treasury that controls finances but not
policy
• General hostility to Foreign Direct Investment
• Spend our time looking backwards, not forwards
Political blockages…
8
South Africa’s Ranking2012/2013
Strength of Auditing and Reporting Standards
1/144
Co-operation in Labour-Employee Relations
144/144
Efficacy of Corporate Boards
1/144
Quality of Maths and Science Education
143/144
Regulation of Securities Exchanges
1/144 Hiring and Firing Practices 143/144
World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report
The DA’s Plan for Growth & Jobs
Breaking down the insider/outsider economy
• Apartheid built an economy of insider and outsiders dominated by large state and private companies
• Today we still have division: Big Government, Big Unions and anti-competitive Big Businesses on the one side, and the majority of South Africans on the other
• Our solution is to make markets work for the many, not just the few
• The state has a responsibility to intervene when markets fail, but also when powerful public and private sector players abuse their market power at the expense of others
29
Western Cape: The Province of Opportunity
30
Five reasons why I’m optimistic…
1. The African Opportunity
2. We have proven we can deliver in the 2010 World Cup…
3. We have companies that have taken on the world, and won…
4. We have the world’s biggest reserves of mineral resources at $2,5 trillion
(estimated by Citibank, 2010)
5. The prospects for democratic transition• The DA is the only party to have grown every election (1994 = 1,7%)• Control 27 municipalities and Western Cape• 2014 Target: 30% of the vote and another province• 9m under the age of 34 eligible to vote (but 4,7m unemployed)
