capacity building
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User. Observing and Monitoring. Capacity Building. Research, Modelling and Prediction. Climate Services Information System. User Interface. GFCS – DWD‘s first experience Dr. Paul Becker (Vice-President, DWD) through - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Capacity Building
Research, Modelling and Prediction
Climate Services Information System
Observing and Monitoring
User Interface
User
GFCS – DWD‘s first experienceDr. Paul Becker (Vice-President, DWD) throughDr. Andreas Becker (Head GPCC and Precipitation Monitoring Unit, DWD) Port of Spain, Trinidad, May 29, 2013
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Matured know-how in weather and climate based on
2360 staff positions (FTEs)
19 advisory centres including 6 large
branch offices
1 meteorological training centre
2 meteorological observatories
9 radiosonde land stations, 4 on ships
18 weather radars, 4 wind profilers
181 primary weather stations (74 staffed)
1795 secondary weather stations
17 automated weather stations on ships
about 840 ships with voluntary observers (VOS)
48 stations measuring radioactivity in the air(2011)
Strong national presence of DWD by running the most dense and one of the most reliable observastional networks in Europe:
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) / German Met Service
900
km
600 km
DWD in figures
Zuweisungen, Zuschüsse
25%
Personal-ausgaben
44%
Investitionen13%
Sach-ausgaben
17%
157
204189
183 172 174
156
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mio € EUMETSAT 28,7 Mio €
Contributions to international Organisations in 2010
EZMW 8,6 Mio €
WMO 3,9 Mio €
EUMETNET 1,3 Mio €
Revenue 59 Mio €
Budget approx. 215 Mio €
Funding 156 Mio €
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Research, Modelling and PredictionObserving and Monitoring
User Inferface
National implementation of GFCS – The process / DWD‘s capabilities
Climate Services Information System
( )( )
( )
( )
Capacity Building
( )
•New institutional structure necessary?
•New approach to service delivery necessary?
User
Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
National implementation of GFCS – The process / DWD‘s abilities
•No! Among other NMHS’s DWD is a Cat-4 Climate Service provider!
•Maybe! But let’s improve customer orientation of existing delivery mechanisms first before re-inventing wheels. GFCS mechanisms should be instrumental for this process!
Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Seasonal Climate Outlooks
Decadal Climate Prediction
Long-term Climate Projections
Climate Monitoring
Climate Observations
Climate Data Management
Climate Application Tools
Interaction with users
Specialised climate products
Customized climate productsC
ate
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ry1
Ca
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Ca
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Seasonal Climate Outlooks
Decadal Climate Prediction
Long-term Climate Projections
Climate Monitoring
Climate Observations
Climate Data Management
Climate Application Tools
Interaction with users
Specialised climate products
Customized climate productsC
ate
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ry1
Ca
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ory
2
Ca
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4Ca
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Sectors
National implementation of GFCS – The German Adaptation Strategy
Biological diversity
Financial services
Trade and industry
Human health
Energy industry
Agriculture
Tourism
Soil
Fishery
Forestry Transport, Infrastructure
Water regime management
Urban (spatial) development
Civil protection
Building
Coastal and marine protection
Cross sectoral
Challenge:Challenge:
combining the climate/weather knowledge with sector specific knowledge(impact models)identifying interfaces
Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
TheDeutscher
Wetterdienst(DWD)
contributesto …
Urban Climate Agrometeorology
Fields of expertise of the Business Area Climate and Environment
Hydrometeorology
Climate Monitoring (Analysis of extreme values)
Utilization and modelling of climate projections
Human Biometeorology
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Climate Monitoring
National climate reference network
Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) monthly global precipitation climatology and monthly and daily precipitation analyses for the Earth's land surfaces.
WMO GCOS Reference Upper Air Network: GRUAN Lead Centre in Lindenberg
WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW): Global Station Zugspitze-Hohenpeißenberg
RCC on Climate Monitoring for RA VI
EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility – Climate Monitoring (CM-SAF)
National Climate Data Centre
Monitoring of the Atmosphere
Integration of historical climate data
Complete inventorisation of documents and data which contain ancient climate data
Collection and gathering of all available information in a archive in Leipzig
Projekt KLIDADIGIStart: September 2005
HISTOR - digitalisation of historical ship records (Hamburg)
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)
- The GPCC database holds precipitation observation data from more than 89.000 stations in more than 190 countries and regions
- Monthly precipitation analyses for the earth‘s landsurface based on the largest monthly in situ precipitation data- base of the world;
GPCC-Homepage: http://gpcc.dwd.de
A German contribution to Climate Monitoring and Research in context of GCOS, WCRP, and WMO
-> free access to the gridded GPCC analysis products A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Data Coverage of GPCC archive shown in terms of global distribution of stations with records exceeding10 years and thus eligible for the full data product
Global Precipitation ClimatologyCentre (GPCC)
Over 67,200 stations
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
La Niña Year 2011 featured strong anomalies in annual totals as well as frequent extreme events for certain periods and regions.
Year 2011 Precipitation Anomaly [mm/month]A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
La Niña Year 2011 featured strong anomalies in annual totals as well as frequent extreme events for certain periods and regions.
Correlation ENSO Index (SOI) vs. GPCC Precipitation 1901- 2010A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Seasonal forecast(EUROSIP)
Seasonal forecast(EUROSIP)
Decadal forecast(MIKLIP)
Decadal forecast(MIKLIP)
Long-termClimateprojections
Long-termClimateprojections
Operational global climate forecast and projection
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
COSMO-CLM: Regional Climate Modeling
CLM-Community is an open international network of scientists, who accepted the CLM Community agreement in all of its details.
Currently 42 member institutions; more information:http://www.clm-community.eu
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Downscaling of Climate Projections
(500 m – 50 m)
(50 km – 10 km)
(~ 150 km)
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Example:
Change in number
of summer days
1961 – 2100
in Frankfurt/Main
MUKLIMO_3
forced by
CLM (A1B)
Urban Climate Change
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Climate Service:German Heat Health Warning System More than 7000 casualties due to 2003 heat
wave in Germany Increasing probability of similar event in the
future according to IPCC
CC adaptation accomplished
two warning levels thermo-physiologically relevant (comprehensive heat budget model for human body following an adaptability approach) Lead time: 7 days spatial resolution: 415 warning districts additional information on in-door temperature enhance the modelling of the night-time periods
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
GFCS Sector Water DWD provides core hydrometeorological information to federal agencies in
charge for flood protection and water resources management.
Example CC adaptation issue: More frequent heavy precipitation ● Expert analysis of precipitation records and downscaling
of climate projection reveals a significant trend to more frequent heavy precipitation events.
● New run-off projections demand adaptive measures of municipalities and counties to prepare and resize run-off systems.
● DWD issues and updates an atlas of heavy precipitation. The climatology encompasses intensity-duration curves and return periods being crucial information for municpalities and counties to properly re-size their channel (run-off) systems.
● In an unique and unprecedented effort, DWD currently performs a decadal re-analysis of the entire homogenized radar data archive, to ultimately enhance the temporal resolution of heavy precipitation climatologies
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Our Services and Customers in the water sector
Services: Customers:
● Street building bureaus
● Energy Supplier
● Water management and run-off agencies
● Planning Bureaus
● Universities
● Federal-, State- and County Agencies
● High resolution precipitation data sets
● Site specific precipitation statistics
● radar based quantiative precipitation analysis
● Data on evaporation related to water sheds or other areas of interest
● Particular assessments and consulting
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
KLIWAS – Impacts of climate change on waterways and navigation – options to adapt
Part of the German Adaptation StrategyPart of the German Adaptation Strategy
Prepare waterborne transportation for the impacts of climate change:
1. Acquisition and regionalization of global and regional climate projections (ensemble approach)
2. Assessing the vulnerability of navigation (incl. an estimation of the future costs of this particular transport mode)
3. Identification of options for action and development of sector-specific adaptation strategies (waterways, coasts, and estuaries)
www.kliwas.de
B. Rudolf, A. Gratzki, G. Malitz, and A. Becker, Water related services and developments at DWD; EGU TM on Flood and Climate, 4 October 2012, Potsdam
21 of 60
Climate Service to protect river borne transport capsChange in transport capacity of fleet (Example: Rotterdam – Oberrhein
„low""high" „low""high"
Source: Holtmann et al., 2011
Rhein River Run-off Scenario
Fleet Scenario
Cha
nge
in t
rans
port
cap
acity
Com
pare
d to
196
1-19
90 (
Mt
/ a)
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
DWD‘s regional Climate / Weather
bureaus
User / Service provider interaction
User Interface
Very often the development of suitable adaptationmeasures requires an intensive consulting activity
In Germany decisions on climate issues are commonly made on a sub-national level
Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Sector agriculture / DWD‘s German Climate Atlas
German Climate Portal
Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Climate Services for the Länder User Interface
German Climate Portal
Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Activities: Analysis of Observations
(Climate- and water body monitoring) Assessment (and downscaling) of available
regional climate scenarios Working Groups, Workshops und Symposia
A joint project of DWD and the southern Federal States, Bavaria(Bayern), Baden-Württemberg, (since
1999), and Rhineland-Palatinate (Rheinland-Pfalz) (since 2007)
KLIWA (German Abbrev.) - Climate Change and Adaptation of Water Management
Interdisciplinary Cooperation
KLIWA: Consideration of a climate change factor in new structural
flood protection measures
Example dam: Construct as planned, but prepare for future increase of dam height
B. Rudolf, A. Gratzki, G. Malitz, and A. Becker, Water related services and developments at DWD; EGU TM on Flood and Climate, 4 October 2012, Potsdam
27 of 60
User Interface
German Climate Portal
Forum
Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Setting-up and operation of
• an useful meteorological observation system
• a suitable data management system
• reliable user support and consultancy
• climate monitoring and modelling
• a long-term archive for meteorological and climatological data
Capacity Building
Existing demand for climate services in developing countries
DWD support for
• Regional Science Service Centres (RSSC) for climate change and adaptive land management in Africa
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
SASSCAL: Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management
(SASSCAL) a Regional Science Service Centre (RSSC) in Southern Africa
an Initiative of Angola, Botswana, Namibia, South-Africa, Zambia and Germany
Goal: to minimize climate change impacts on agriculture and water resources in Southern Africa
Three pillars: „Research, Capacity buildung and regional consultance and Information, product service
Finance by German minitstry of research
www.sasscal.org
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Capacity Building:SASSCAL: proposed DWD Contributions
Satellite based climate analysis
Support development of suitable climate monitoring products
Support management of historical and recent climate data
Development of a user friendly climate data management system to support operation of an RSSC and the national met service
Support built up of a quality controlled and documented climate data archive to serve a basis for independent regional climate research activities.
Pursue concepts of data rescue and archival with regard to regional data in close cooperation with national met services of the targe region.
Provision of climate data for other SASSCAL activities in the field of land use, farming through development of suitable access-tools
SASSCAL could be representative for similar activities adopted to the specific needs of the Caribbean countries
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
National implementation of GFCS
The DWD is best suited to serve and maintain the capabilities required for the national implementation of the GFCS. Rather than creating a new institutional structure on national level, the outstanding challenges are:
to spread the news on the GFCS: Answer What and Why questions
to involve the relevant stakeholders / to identify interfaces
to integrate the existing initiatives, e.g. the German Adaptation Strategy
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
National implementation of GFCS /Spread the Word
to spread the news on the GFCS: Answer What and Why questions
DWD
•supports suitable webinars
•hosts GFCS Sector specific national information and user workshops
•Installation of sector specific user forums corresponding to the major theme of the annual DWD climate symposium
A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013
Results
Wrap Up
1.: DWD provides climate services on all time scales for a broad spectrum of users.
Our climate services encompass all GFCS components, from climate monitoring to qualified consultancy based on state-of-the-art climate modeling and research.
DWD’s climate services are provided at 24/7 on every day of the year.
3.: DWD is actively networking with its national and international partners in the area of climate services. This is crucial also to avoid duplication of efforts.
2.: DWD investigates climate change impacts in diverse sectors by making use of climate monitoring, research, modelling and projection.
In Germany, the scientific and technical capabilities and the infrastructure of DWD are the backbone for both, the aspired climate service components of GFCS on international scale and „downstream“ applications on the national scale.
Sea-level rise poses a boundary condition that is already regional at the climate change forcing level
35
DWD is partner of provider of this climate information(DKRZ, German Climate Research Centre, Hamburg
Outlook
Capacity Building
Research, Modelling and Prediction
Climate Services Information System
Observing and Monitoring
User Interface
User
Many thanks!Andreas for Paul Becker Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013