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JUST – C Limited Capital Link, Athens Shipping markets - Sector review, analysis & outlook 20 February 2020 Joakim Hannisdahl Head of Research

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Page 1: Capital Link, Athensforums.capitallink.com/shipping/2020greece/ppt/hannisdahl.pdf800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Confirmed

JUST – C Limited

Capital Link, AthensShipping markets - Sector review, analysis & outlook

20 February 2020

Joakim Hannisdahl

Head of Research

Page 2: Capital Link, Athensforums.capitallink.com/shipping/2020greece/ppt/hannisdahl.pdf800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Confirmed

Coronavirus: Confirmed cases & deaths (globally)

Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Source: Cleaves Securities, Bloomberg

Significant impact on shipping – Most likely a temporary effect

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Confirmed deaths globally

Confirmed cases globally

Confirmed deaths globally

New method for diagnosing

Covid-19 cases in China

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Confirmed cases globally (1w

MA):

Confirmed cases globally (1w MA): 2nd …

First sign of the virus

spread abatingcould be the falling 2nd

Page 3: Capital Link, Athensforums.capitallink.com/shipping/2020greece/ppt/hannisdahl.pdf800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Confirmed

VLGC supply dynamics VLGC supply, demand & fleet utilization

LPG Shipping (VLGCs)

Source: Cleaves Securities, Shipping Intelligence Network

Supply growth outpacing demand growth in 2021E, with balanced growth thereafter

Page 4: Capital Link, Athensforums.capitallink.com/shipping/2020greece/ppt/hannisdahl.pdf800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Confirmed

VLGC spot rates (monthly) VLGC share index vs 3y old VLGC (R²=0.86)

LPG Shipping (VLGCs)

Source: Cleaves Securities, Bloomberg, Shipping Intelligence Network

The cyclical peak could already be behind us, with the next trough in 2021/22E

Page 5: Capital Link, Athensforums.capitallink.com/shipping/2020greece/ppt/hannisdahl.pdf800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Confirmed

LNG Carrier supply dynamics New liquefaction projects

LNG Shipping

Source: Cleaves Securities, Shipping Intelligence Network

Fleet growth to significantly outpace demand growth in 2021-22E, before the dynamics could be reversed thereafter

Page 6: Capital Link, Athensforums.capitallink.com/shipping/2020greece/ppt/hannisdahl.pdf800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Confirmed

LNG Carrier supply/demand dynamics TFDE spot rates (quarterly)

LNG Shipping

Source: Cleaves Securities, Shipping Intelligence Network

Headwinds ahead, but the long-term outlook is very positive

Page 7: Capital Link, Athensforums.capitallink.com/shipping/2020greece/ppt/hannisdahl.pdf800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Confirmed

Dry bulk supply dynamics Dry bulk supply, demand & fleet utilization

Dry Bulk Shipping

Source: Cleaves Securities, Shipping Intelligence Network

Low demand growth offset by even lower supply growth

Page 8: Capital Link, Athensforums.capitallink.com/shipping/2020greece/ppt/hannisdahl.pdf800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Confirmed

Longest dry bulk shipping cycles since 1741

Dry Bulk Shipping

Source: Cleaves Securities

Ongoing cyclical expansion could be one of the longest on record

Page 9: Capital Link, Athensforums.capitallink.com/shipping/2020greece/ppt/hannisdahl.pdf800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Confirmed

Oil tanker supply dynamics Oil tanker supply, demand & fleet utilization

Oil Tankers

Source: Cleaves Securities, Shipping Intelligence Network

Lowest orderbook since 1997 against strong demand growth in 2019-20E

Page 10: Capital Link, Athensforums.capitallink.com/shipping/2020greece/ppt/hannisdahl.pdf800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Confirmed

VLCC spot rates (quarterly) Oil Tanker share index vs 5y old VLCC (R²=0.90)

Oil Tankers

Source: Cleaves Securities, Shipping Intelligence Network

Earnings expected to stay strong, with further upside in asset and share prices

Page 11: Capital Link, Athensforums.capitallink.com/shipping/2020greece/ppt/hannisdahl.pdf800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Confirmed

The current cyclicality of the shipping segments (2020E)

Summing up Shipping

Source: Cleaves Securities

Headwinds for gas transportation while the outlook for dry bulk and oil tankers looks bright

Page 12: Capital Link, Athensforums.capitallink.com/shipping/2020greece/ppt/hannisdahl.pdf800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Confirmed

Joakim Hannisdahl, Head of Research

Currently ranked #1 Shipping Equity Research globally by Bloomberg

www.cleaves.no

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