1

CAPS Early Commercialization Activities1996-2000

Richard CarpenterWeather Decision Technologies, Inc.

June 2014

2

Project Hub-CAPS1996-1999• 3-year, $1M R&D effort between OU and American

Airlines– “CAPS + Hub airports”

• Goals:– to demonstrate the practicability of storm-scale numerical

weather prediction for commercial aviation– to customize and integrate the CAPS forecast system into AA

operations– to end with a usable system that can

be run daily for or by AA• Prompted by 29 Apr 1995 DFW

Hailstorm– Severely damaged 80 AA aircraft

3

Hub-CAPS Personnel• CAPS Director

– Kelvin Droegemeier• American Airlines

– Warren Qualley, Roy Strasser• Hub-CAPS Staff

– Richard Carpenter, Gene Bassett, Jason Levit• Other CAPS Staff

– Keith Brewster, Ming Xue, Steve Weygandt, David Jahn, Al Shapiro, Fred Carr, Min Zou

• Students– Project COMET-Tinker: Capt. Chris Stock, John Mewes, Eric Kemp– Chris Hudgin, Casey Crosbie, Mike Klatt, Jason Lynn, Shannon

Stevenson

4

Year 1: 1996-97

• Built Perl-based ARPSControl forecast system• Humble beginnings

– One 9 km grid, 9 hr forecast each day– 12Z RUC, surface obs, 16Z ADAS analysis

• Early forecasts had issues– Convective spin-up, surface physics, coarse

grid, lateral boundaries• Cray J90 upgraded from 8 to 16 processors• Presentations at 1997-99 AMS Aviation Conferences• Resistance from AA’s union forecasters

– Added workload– Effect of automation on job security– Distrust of early forecasts

5

Year 2: 1997-98• Added outer 27-km grid

– 4x daily on 27 km, 6-hr 20Z forecast on 9 km• Greatly improved the spin-up problem

– Added satellite and radar data– ADAS cloud analysis

• More and better products– Aviation Impact Variables– Improved quality and timeliness of products– Added animations to web page– Began reporting on forecast system health

• Opened up web access– Used by airlines, TV stations, NOAA, USAF, FAA

• Onsite at AA Weather Services– Conducted training sessions– Forecast evaluation and interviews

• 62% rated forecasts good to excellent• 36% felt Hub-CAPS made a positive impact on their forecast

6

Hub-CAPS gets noticed• Mentioned in NWSFO and SPC discussions

– THE ARPS SHOWS PRECIP STREAKING DIRECTLY ACROSS DFW– LATEST ARPS MODEL INDICATES THAT MORE CONVECTION

WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NWD

• “We at the Fort Worth ARTCC Center Weather Service Unit have been using your Hub-CAPS site for some time now, and we find it to be one of the best forecast tools for the D/FW area”– Tom Hicks, Meteorologist-in-Charge, Center Weather

Services Unit, Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center• “We live and die by your web page”

– Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN TV-9, Chicago

7

Year 3: 1998-99

• CRAFT – Real-time Level II NEXRAD data– Implemented during AMS-99– KTLX, KFWS

• Improved grid nesting– 30/8/4 km

• Introduced Ensembles and Forecast Cycling

• Ingested AA MDCRS data• AA endowed professorship in

OU School of Meteorology– Currently Alan Shapiro

8

AMS Annual Meeting 1999 (AMS-99), Dallas

• Real-time ARPS Forecasts and Analyses– Dedicated 128-node Origin-2000 at NCSA– 32/9/3 km forecasts

• Real-time Ingest of Fort Worth radar• Kiosks provided by SGI• Daily Weather Briefings (Steve Weygandt)

Kelvin, Chancellor Hans Brisch, AA EVP Bob Baker, John Snow

9

6 January 1999 Fog Burnoff Forecast

10

Humble beginnings of a web page

11

Final configuration of web page showing time index and past runs

12

13

14

Downburst Potential Surface Isotachs &Streamlines

CAPE & Helicity

Surface Visibility Clear-Air Turbulence Icing Potential

Sample ARPSView Products

Downburst Potential Surface Isotachs &Streamlines

CAPE & Helicity

15

CAPS/wx web page today

16

Weather Decision Technologies

• “Launched out of OU”– OU 10% ownership– Royalties for exclusive licenses to ARPS and

WxScope (Oklahoma Climate Survey)– Incorporated 1999, began operations 2000

• Continued providing 6-km forecasts to AA• Collaboration with CAPS

– Williams Energy– ADAS-WRF for Paraguay (2004)

• Western Resources, Kansas (2000-2002)• MetroCast for Kavouras/Meteorlogix (2000-

2003)– Run ARPS at TV stations on 4 proc SGI workstation

17

Weather Decision Technologies– Today • Located across the street in Partners Place 3

– 86 full-time employees, 38 with MS or higher– 6 CAPS alumni– AMS Fellow (Mike Eilts)– 4 CCMs– 2011 AMS Award for Outstanding Contributions by a

Corporation– Serving on AMS committees

• Areas of Expertise– NWP, Radar/Nowcasting, Asset Protection, Enterprise and

Consumer Alerting, Scalable Data Delivery– Licensed and patented technologies

• NWP– ARPSControl (Perl) WRFControl (Python)– 200+ forecasts/day on 4 continents– Dedicated systems in Philippines, Dubai, Thailand

18

19

20