CarboEurope IP2004-2008

Mid-Term Project Overview

Executive Board: Ernst-Detlef Schulze (PI), Annette Freibauer, Riccardo Valentini, John Grace, Philippe

Ciais, Han Dolman, Martin Heimann

61 Contractor + 30 Associated PartnersFunding: 16.3 M€ (EU) + >30M€ (national)

Office: A. Freibauer, A. Thuille, Y. HoffmannMax-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jean,

Germanyhttp://www.carboeurope.org

3 Overarching Project Questions

• ”The European Carbon Balance” What is the carbon balance of the European continent and its geographical pattern, and how does it change over time?

• ”Processes and Mechanisms” What are the controlling mechanisms of carbon cycling in European ecosystems? How do external parameters such as climate change and variability, and changing land management affect the European carbon balance?

• ”Detection of Kyoto” Can the effective CO2 reduction in the atmosphere in response to fossil fuel emission reduction and enhanced carbon sequestration on land be detected in the context of the Kyoto commitments of Europe?

Component fluxes of the European carbon balance

Ciais et al., 2006, in prep.Black: “natural”

Red: human induced

Overarching Research Strategy

4 Interlinked Project Components

Component 1: Ecosystems Carbon Budget

and its Driving ForcesCoordination:

Riccardo Valentini (U. Tuscia)

• To observe the fluxes of carbon water and energy over Europe by eddy covariance

• To partition the flux into its constitutent parts

• To quantify the effects of management

• To provide the basic data for evaluation and parametrisation of models

Figure 1: Correlation plots between index of water availability (IWA) and annual (a) gross primary production (GPP), (c)

terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and (e) net ecosystem production (NEP), and between mean annual temperature

(MAT) and annual (b) GPP, (d) TER, and (f) NEP (b, d, f). Solid and dashed lines represent the linear regression lines with

associated 95% confidence bands. The linear correlation coefficient, the linear regression equation, and the significance level are reported in each plot. Colors code sites, symbols code

vegetation type as indicated in the legend below (ENF=Evergreen Needle Forest, EBF=Evergreen Broadleaf

Forest, DBF=Deciduous Broadleaf Forest, MF=Mixed Forest, W=Wetland).

Synthesis of Flux Data

Reichstein et al., 2006

Processes controlling interannual variations in fluxes

Sensitivity of respiration to water and temperature

Workpackage SoilsWorkpackage Soils

1. Detection of changes in soil carbon plausible within 5 years at some sites1. Detection of changes in soil carbon plausible within 5 years at some sites

2. Soil carbon storage and mineralization are related to soil properties2. Soil carbon storage and mineralization are related to soil properties

N = 100 C-stock0-5 cm

C-stock0-20 cm

FORCAST2000

MDD 0-5 cm

MDD0-20 cm

[g kg-1] [gC m-2 5y-1]

Hainich 2.3 0.4 7.0 1.0 360 119 < 274 <

Hesse 1.2 0.3 3.8 0.6 -160 108 < 173

Soroe 2.4 0.4 7.1 1.6 520 119 < 438 <

r = -0.59p < 0.01

r = -0.67p < 0.01

Min

era

lisati

on

ra

te

[g C

O2 (

g

soil

C)-1

]

Min

era

lisati

on

ra

te

[g C

O2 (

g

soil

C)-1

]

Schrumpf et al., in prep.

Forests: Effects of Age and Management

Magnani et al., 2006

Component 2: Continental Carbon Budget and its Driving Forces

(“Atmosphere”)Coordination: Philippe Ciais (LSCE)

• To provide the high-precision, high-frequency, long-term concentration measurements for the determination of sources and sinks by the top-down approach

• To develop innovative methods based on carbon cycle tracers and isotopes in order to partition the signals into terrestrial, marine and fossil constituents

Increasing continental to marine [CO2] difference

With continuous hourly records, trend is robust to data selection

Calibration drifts monitored and 10 times smaller

Ramonet et al., 2006

14C as a tracer of fossil fuel

contribution in European air

Levin et al., 2006

Component 3: Regional Carbon Budget and its Driving Forces (Regional

Experiment)Coordination: Han Dolman (VUA)

• To determine the spatially explicit regional balance over an area (300x300km) in south-west France at 2km resolution, every day for a full year based on intensive atmospheric and surface measurements

•Development of downscaling and upscaling methods for the multiple constraint approach

CO2 concentrations (ppm) may-27 9HUTC

Atmospheric CO2 modelling May – 27 2005 Sea breeze effects

S-W S-ES-E

CO2 concentrations (ppm) may-27 14HUTC

FORESTAREA

AGRICUL.AREA

S-ES-W

FORESTAREA

AGRICUL.AREA

Atmospheric CO2 modelling May – 27 2005 Schematic Processes

Sarrat, et al., 2006)

Component 4: Continental Integration

(Coordination: Martin Heimann, MPI-BGC)

• To assess the present European carbon balance, its component processes and its variability on a continuum of spatial scales going from local (10km) to continental (5000km) using top-down and bottom-up models

• To merge the data streams of flux measurements, concentration measurements, forest and soil carbon inventories and combine them with remote sensing, meteorological and other GIS data into a carbon data assimilation system

Carbon Cycle Observing SystemsCarbon Cycle Observing Systems

EurasiaEuropeEurasiaEurope

WorldWorld

CountriesCountries

Plot/SitePlot/Site

Eurogrid(~20-50km)2Eurogrid

(~20-50km)2

Remote Sensing + GIS - Data

Models

Remote Sensing + GIS - Data

Models Fore

st/S

oil

Inven

tori

es

Fore

st/S

oil

Inven

tori

es

Atmospheric

CO2 Concentration

Atmospheric

CO2 Concentration

Flux MeasurementsEcosystem Manipulation Experiments

Flux MeasurementsEcosystem Manipulation Experiments

Scientific Carbon Cycle Target

Scientific Carbon Cycle Target

Political “Kyoto” Target

Political “Kyoto” Target

Process Model Development at Eddy-Flux Site-Level (PIXGRO)

Owen et al., GCB, 2006

Top-down method development: Potential error reduction by increasing

observation network

Anomaly of 2003 as seen from

space:Anomaly of the

fraction of absorbed

photosynthetic radiation (FAPAR)

Gobron et al., 2004

Growing season NEP anomaly in 2003,

simulated by 4 prognostic and

3 diagnostic terrestrial ecosystem

models

Vetter et al., in prep.

2003 Summer NEP Anomaly LPJ Simulation and Comparsion with Eddy

Flux Data

kg C m-2 mo-1

M. Reichstein

Large-scale CO2 flux anomalies determined from atmospheric observations by top-down

inversion system

Anomaly of summer 2003:Consistency between top-down and

bottom-up approach?

MPI-BGC inversionPrognostic terrestrial ecosystem models

Which process controls the 2003

anomaly?

M. Vetter, in prep.

All models predict a decrease in NEP, but differ in relative role

of GPP and Reco

Carbon Balance of EuropeLongerterm Average (~10yr)

Janssens et al., 2003

tCarboEurope = 2003

Ciais et al., 2006, in prep.

tCarboEurope = 2006 ??

tCarboEurope = 2008