carbon emission reduction strategy & …...0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 ch4...

© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Francisco de la Chesnaye Technical Executive

John Bistline Project Manager

Decarbonization Expert Panel

IEA, Paris September 2015

Carbon Emission Reduction Strategy & Electrification: EPRI’s

Role

2 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Today’s Topics

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Regulations Electric Sector’s Role in Economy-wide Emission Reduction

and Electrification


EPA’s Updated Schedule


EPA’s FINAL Proposal Will Have Varying State Impacts

Source: EPA Rate_Based IPM Results, EIA

% CO2 Reductions by State in 2030 (from 2005)

NY 59%

PA 42%NJ 36%

OR 29%

WA 65%

AZ -1%

NV 68%

UT 5% CO 19%

NM 35%

ID -9%WY 40%

MT 9%

CA 5%

ND 45%

SD 53%

NE -37%

KS 7%

MN 22%

IA 39%

MO 14%

TX 33%

OK 46% AR 12%

LA 54%

WI 38%MI 48%

IL 54%IN 33%

OH 30%

WV 15%

KY 46%

TN 38%

MS 16%AL 50%

GA 42%

FL 22%

SC 24%

NC 57%

VA 54%DE 71%

MD 60%

RI 26%

ME 34%NH 46%

MA 65%

CT 46%

VT

≤ 0%1% - 25%26% - 50%> 50%

Wide range in variation, but reduced from variation in Proposed Rule


CPP

Carbon Reduction is more than the Clean Power Plan


U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reduction Pledge, 80% by 2050 Target and the CPP

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Billi

on to

ns C

O2

eq.

Source: US-REGEN data; Energy Modeling Forum 24

ELECTRIC SECTOR CO2

Non-ELECTRIC SECTOR CO2

CH4, N20, and F-gases Net GHG (incl sinks)

Clean Power Plan 32% target

Economy

80% target

Economy 28% target

nominal Electric Sector 80% target


U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets – Energy Efficiency and Electrification

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Billi

on to

ns C

O2

eq.

ELECTRIC SECTOR CO2

Non-ELECTRIC SECTOR CO2

CH4, N20, and F-gases Net GHG (incl sinks)

Economy

80% target

Economy 28% target

OTHER SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY MUST

REDUCE

Electric Sector

Source: US-REGEN data; Energy Modeling Forum 24


Opportunities for Carbon Reductions

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

CH4 Fugitive Emissions from Coal Mining

CO2 Emissions from Iron and Steel Production & Metallurgical Coke Production

CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Oil - Residential

CO2 Emissions from Mobile Combustion: Other

CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Coal - Industrial

CH4 Emissions from Landfills

HiGWP Emissions from Substitutes for Ozone Depleting Substances

CO2 Emissions from Non-Energy Use of Fuels

CH4 Fugitive Emissions from Natural Gas Systems

CO2 Emissions from Mobile Combustion: Aviation

CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Gas - Commercial

CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Gas - Residential

CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Oil - Industrial

CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Gas - Electricity Generation

CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Gas - Industrial

CO2 Emissions from Mobile Combustion: Road

CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Coal - Electricity Generation

86%

Key Categories from the EPA GHG Inventory by Economic Sector (TgCO2e or MTCO2e) in 2011

Key Categories as share of total emissions

Source: EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2011 Sectors already targeted by CAA regulations


Key Research Questions

Objective: Examine policy alternatives to the current piecemeal regulatory approach in the US – Assess pathways and the role of the power sector in meeting near-

and long-term emissions reduction goals 2025 INDC and 2050 Climate Action Plan targets

– How might technological improvements and availability influence cost, emissions, and electrification outcomes?

Understand drivers of electrification under different policy,

market, and technology settings – Which policy features are the most important drivers? – Which sectors exhibit the greatest electrification potential? – Prioritize future model development and structure sensitivities


E&EA Reference Comparison (with and without NSPS)


Electricity generation by technology

Solar

Geothermal

Biomass

Wind

Hydro+

Nuclear (New)

Nuclear (Existing)

Gas w/CCS

Gas

New Coal w/CCS

New Coal

CCS Retrofit

Environmental Retrofit

Existing Coal

Scenario Load

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

Reference Reference with NSPS

preliminary


Economy-Wide 80% Cap Results


-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Econ

omy-

Wid

e G

HG E

mis

sion

s (G

tCO

2eq/

yr)

LLF

SLF

N₂O

CH₄

CO₂

Sink

Net

Economy-wide emissions (reference) Economy-wide targets (relative to 2005 levels) Net emissions with land sink Gross emissions

80%

26%

1.245

US-REGEN model results

preliminary


-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Econ

omy-

Wid

e G

HG E

mis

sion

s (G

tCO

2eq/

yr)

LLF

SLF

N₂O

CH₄

CO₂

Sink

Net

Economy-wide emissions with 80% cap All sectors, all GHGs (with banking and borrowing)

2025 abatement (~42%) exceeds INDC pledge to bank reductions, which avoids costly

abatement in later decades

Banking

preliminary


GHG emissions by sector (reference)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GHG

Em

issi

ons (

GtC

O2e

q/yr

)

Non-CO₂

Electric

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

Midstream

Other Transport

Light-Duty Vehicles

preliminary


-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GHG

Em

issi

ons (

GtC

O2e

q/yr

)

Non-CO₂

Electric

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

Midstream

Other Transport

Light-Duty Vehicles

GHG emissions by sector (80% all GHG cap) All sectors, all GHGs (with banking and borrowing)

Significant and early abatement in the power sector and CH4, but more limited changes in

other sectors

preliminary


NaturalGas

Coal

Low Carbon

Other Energy

ElectricityGeneration

Transportation

Industrial

26.4 EJ

14.9 EJ

20.1 EJ

13.2 EJ

2.2 BT

1.3 BT

Midstream

Commercial

U.S. Energy and Emissions in 2050

Residential

0.9 BT

0.3 BT

0.3 BT

0.4 BT

0.1 BT

0.5 BT

1.1 BT

Petroleum

40.7 EJ

5.6 EJ

0.0 BT

US-REGEN Reference

AEO fuel prices thru 2040

RPS targets a/o 2015

CPP not included

U.S. Energy – Emissions Transformation: 2050 Reference

PRELIMINARY DATA

Other Energy

Electricity

82.0 EJ

4.5 BT

38.9 EJ

2.6 BT


NaturalGas

Coal

Low Carbon

Other Energy

ElectricityGeneration

Transportation

Industrial2.8 EJ

0.1 EJ

0.0 EJ

32.6 EJ

0.6 BT

0.4 BT

Midstream

Commercial

U.S. Energy and Emissions in 2050

Residential0.1 BT

0.0 BT

0.1 BT

0.1 BT

0.1 BT

0.0 BT

0.2 BT

Petroleum

13.8 EJ

2.4 EJ

0.0 BT

80% reduction in economy-wide CO2 emissions (from 2005)

No banking or borrowing

Other Energy shift to Electricity which is more efficient

Accelerated improvement of economy-wide energy intensity

Price induced energy conservation

U.S. Energy – Emissions Transformation: 2050 80% CO2 Reduction Target

Other Energy

Electricity

19.0 EJ

1.2 BT

32.6 EJ

0.3 BT

PRELIMINARY DATA


Electrification Reduces Future GHG Emissions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Net

GHG

Em

issi

ons (

GtC

O2e

q/yr

)

Fina

l Ene

rgy

(%)

Reference

Electricity All Other GHG

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Net

GHG

Em

issi

ons (

GtC

O2e

q/yr

)

Fina

l Ene

rgy

(%)

80% GHG Mitigation (No Banking)

Electricity All Other GHG


Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity

carbon emission reduction strategy & …...0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 ch4...

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