Carbon Storage Mitigating Carbon Storage Mitigating Climate Change?Climate Change?

Will this work? Is it too late?Will this work? Is it too late?

Carbon Retention Timescale is Carbon Retention Timescale is LongLong

Lag Time IssueLag Time Issue

Is really quite seriousIs really quite serious We don’t even know yet of the climate We don’t even know yet of the climate

system is responding to increased COsystem is responding to increased CO22

Other factors (water vapor feedback loop, Other factors (water vapor feedback loop, aerosol suppression, increased clouds) aerosol suppression, increased clouds) may be at workmay be at work

If the lag time (some times called the If the lag time (some times called the warming pipeline) is large then warming pipeline) is large then stabilization targets may be coming too stabilization targets may be coming too latelate

The Physics of the Problem

CO2 long atmospheric lifetime

Ocean (water) takes a long time to heat up and cool off ocean SST is primary driver of global climate change.

Estimates suggest warming pipeline is 0.5 – 1 degree C (and there is nothing we can do about this)

Probability and Concerns A recent, thorough analysis has yielded this

thoroughly discouraging result:

ComplicationsComplications

Aerosols/global dimming may well be Aerosols/global dimming may well be masking the warming signal masking the warming signal this is an this is an area of much current researcharea of much current research

Feedback from clouds looks likely to be Feedback from clouds looks likely to be positive rather than negative in the most positive rather than negative in the most recent grid models that actually contain recent grid models that actually contain cloudsclouds

This means the 2 degree C stabilization This means the 2 degree C stabilization target has already been exceededtarget has already been exceeded

The Stabilization Triangle

The 500 PPM DifficultyThe 500 PPM Difficulty 7 GTC/year reduction, relative to BAU must 7 GTC/year reduction, relative to BAU must

be achieved by 2050. Our current annual be achieved by 2050. Our current annual emission is 7 GTC!emission is 7 GTC!

Look for somewhat equal contributions in Look for somewhat equal contributions in all areas (e.g. storage, production, fuel, etc) all areas (e.g. storage, production, fuel, etc) Wedge steps to get there by 2054 Wedge steps to get there by 2054

Each Wedge step requires a large scale, Each Wedge step requires a large scale, multi-national effort!multi-national effort!

Wedges correspond to worldwide emissions Wedges correspond to worldwide emissions – each country’s contribution varies; US – each country’s contribution varies; US will have to reduce or sequester about 80% will have to reduce or sequester about 80% of its current carbon emission to play fairof its current carbon emission to play fair

Energy Efficiency and ConversionEnergy Efficiency and Conversion

• Increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg

• or, decrease annual miles for 2 billion 30 mpg cars from 10,000 to 5000

• Efficient buildings: cut carbon emissions in buildings by 25%

• Increase coal fired electricity efficiency from 40% to 60% using advanced high temperature materials

New Fuel SourcesNew Fuel Sources

• Replace 1400 GW of 50% efficient coal fired plants with gas plants

• Increase ethanol production by a factor of 100 relative to current US production utilizing 1/6 of world available cropland

• Add 4 million 1 MW peak windmills (100 times current world capacity) for Hydrogen production for fuel cells

CCS CCS

• Capture at baseload power plant (at 800 GW Coal or 1600 GW of Natural Gas)

• Capture at steam-reforming Hydrogen production plants at levels of 250 Mt/year for gas and 500 Mt/year H-production by coal

• Capture at coal-liquid plants crucial; future facilities could produce 30 million barrels a day

Alternative Energy @ 2TWAlternative Energy @ 2TW

• Substitute wind power for Coal power at the scale of building 400,000 5 MW turbines on land or offshore

• Substitute PV power for Coal power at the level of 2000 GW North African Desert

• Scale up the Dragons and Snakes on the ocean waves to 2000 GW

Wedge Approach – 1GTC reduction Wedge Approach – 1GTC reduction per wedge by 2054per wedge by 2054

One Wedge achieved by US if it One Wedge achieved by US if it reduces its carbon intensity 2.1% per reduces its carbon intensity 2.1% per year for next 50 yearsyear for next 50 years

2 billion cars have large lever arm on 2 billion cars have large lever arm on the wedgethe wedge

In 2000, Coal power plants operated In 2000, Coal power plants operated at 32% efficiency and produced ¼ of at 32% efficiency and produced ¼ of all carbon emissions (1.7 GTC) all carbon emissions (1.7 GTC) a a wedge is achieved at 60% efficiencywedge is achieved at 60% efficiency

Wedge Approach ContinuedWedge Approach Continued One wedge achieved by displacing 1400 One wedge achieved by displacing 1400

GW of coal with gas by 2054. Requires GW of coal with gas by 2054. Requires China/Russia agreement on Natural Gas.China/Russia agreement on Natural Gas.

700 GW of Nuclear fission would achieve a 700 GW of Nuclear fission would achieve a wedge wedge requires restoration of public requires restoration of public confidence in safety and waste disposalconfidence in safety and waste disposal

Wedge achieved by implementation of any Wedge achieved by implementation of any 2 TW alternative energy scheme for 2 TW alternative energy scheme for electricity productionelectricity production

34 million gallons of ethanol production 34 million gallons of ethanol production achieves a wedgeachieves a wedge

Summary