caribbean hotel investment conference and operations summit · 2000 adr grown by cpi total u.s.,...

22
2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc. Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit 8 November 2012 Carter Wilson Director, STR Analytics Smith Travel Research, Inc. and/or STR Global, Ltd. (collectively for these purposes, “STR”) are the exclusive owners of all rights in these Industry Presentations and their content. Reproduction of all or a portion of these presentations for any purpose without prior approval of STR is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.

Upload: others

Post on 15-Oct-2020

5 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit

8 November 2012

Carter Wilson Director, STR Analytics

Smith Travel Research, Inc. and/or STR Global, Ltd. (collectively for these purposes, “STR”) are the exclusive owners of all rights in these Industry Presentations and their content. Reproduction of all or a portion of these presentations for any purpose without prior approval of STR is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.

Page 2: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Overview

(PARRIS WILL FOCUS ON SPECIFIC CARIBBEAN ISLANDS)

A Quick Global Glance

U.S. Overview

How the Caribbean Looks

U.S. Projections

Page 3: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

A Quick Global Glance

Page 4: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

RevPAR % Change: Continents and Subcontinents

*All calculated in USD

North America 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012 6.0% 8.0% 6.5%

Europe 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012 3.1% 12.5% -5.0%

Central America 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012 5.4% 0.7% -1.1%

Caribbean 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012 2.4% 7.4% 11.2%

Asia Pacific 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012

17.5% 8.7% 3.1%

South America 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012

19.1% 19.2% -1.9%

Middle East & Africa 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012 2.2% -2.3% 6.6%

Page 5: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

9%

35%

27%

29%

Sample rooms

Eastern Northern Southern Western

Tier RevPAR % Change Upper $90.65 -4.9%

Middle $76.08 -5.6%

Lower $65.31 -8.7%

European Regional Overview September YTD 2012

Region RevPAR % Change Total $90.44 -5.0% Eastern $69.01 -1.4% Northern $91.48 -1.3% Southern $85.44 -8.8% Western $100.09 -6.8%

Page 6: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

U.S. Overview

Page 7: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Total U.S. - Key Statistics September YTD 2012 For the 52,400 hotels in the U.S.:

Measure Value % Change Room Supply 1.3 bn 0.4% Room Demand 834.4 mn 3.0% Occupancy 63.0% 2.6% ADR $105.94 4.2% RevPAR $66.79 6.9% Room Revenue $88.4 bn 7.3%

Page 8: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to September 2012

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Supply % Change Demand % Change

Oct ‘91 -0.9%

June ‘89 5.2%

Jan ‘89 4.5%

Mar ‘02 -4.6%

Aug ‘06 -0.2%

Aug ‘09 -7.1%

Feb ‘11 7.7%

Page 9: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases

95

100

105

110

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total U.S., ADR $, 12 MMA 1/08 – 9/12

Apr ‘10 $97

Sep ‘08 $108

Dec ‘11 $102

+4.9%

-10%

19 Months

19 Months

Sep ‘12 $105

Page 10: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F

Nominal ADR 2000 / 2007 Grown by CPI

2000 ADR Grown By CPI

Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov, 2011 – 2013 CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators

$85

$101

$104

$85

$107 $109

$107

$117

2013F

Inflation Adjusted ADRs Well Out Of Reach

2007 ADR Grown By CPI

Page 11: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Top 25 Markets Versus All Others Key Performance Indicators Percent Change September YTD 2012

0.6

3.7 3.1

4.5

7.8 8.4

0.3

2.6 2.3

3.8

6.2 6.6

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR Revenue

Top 25 All Others

Page 12: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

RevPAR Recovery Map

Page 13: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

How the Caribbean Looks (PARRIS WILL FOCUS ON SPECIFIC CARIBBEAN ISLANDS)

Page 14: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Resort Destination Areas Occupancy September YTD 2011 vs. 2012

77.8

70.9 67.9 67.3 66.4

65.2 60.1

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80 2011 2012

Page 15: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Resort Destination Markets Occupancy Percent Change 2007 to September YTD 2012

Caribbean compared to Orlando, Florida Keys, Phuket, Mauritius, Miami, Total U.S., and Hawaii

-3 -4.7 -4.5 -2

4.2 6.9

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD

Page 16: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Resort Destination Areas ADR (USD) September YTD 2011 vs. 2012

202.9

185.4 176.0

121.0 119.2 115.7 114.3

$90

$110

$130

$150

$170

$190

$210 2011 2012

Page 17: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Resort Destination Markets ADR Percent Change 2007 to September YTD 2012

Caribbean compared to Orlando, Florida Keys, Phuket, Mauritius, Miami, Total U.S., and Hawaii

9.2

-10.3 -12.8

4.4 3.1 4

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD

Page 18: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Resort Destination Areas RevPAR (USD) September YTD 2011 vs. 2012

157.8

120.9 119.5

85.8 80.2 75.9 69.6

$50

$70

$90

$110

$130

$150

$170 2011 2012

Page 19: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Resort Destination Markets RevPAR Percent Change 2007 to September YTD 2012

Caribbean compared to Orlando, Florida Keys, Phuket, Mauritius, Miami, Total U.S., and Hawaii

6

-14.5 -16.8

2.4 7.4 11.2

-40 -30 -20 -10

0 10 20 30 40 50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD

Page 20: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

U.S. Projections

Page 21: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year)

2012 - 2013 Outlook

2012 Forecast

2013 Forecast

Supply 0.5% 0.9%

Demand 2.6% 1.2%

Occupancy 2.1% 0.3%

ADR 4.4% 4.6%

RevPAR 6.5% 4.9%

Page 22: Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov,

2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Market Cycle Chronology –

Caribbean

Dec 2006

Feb 2009

Feb 2010

Mar 2008

May 2011 Sep 2012