carlos gascó head of the prospective unit
DESCRIPTION
Uitilities’ stronger bet for renewables An analysis from the renewable power generator. Carlos Gascó Head of the Prospective Unit. Key drivers for a new energy model. ENERGETY SECURITY. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY. Reasonable cost of electricity - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES
Carlos GascóHead of the Prospective Unit
Uitilities’ stronger bet for renewables
An analysis from the renewable power generator
IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES 2
• Reasonable cost of electricity
• Essential for the social lifestile and the competitiveness
• Dependence growing, and so are doing geopolitical clashes
• Global Warming (Kioto commitments)
• Sustainable use of Natural Resources
Key drivers for a new energy model
ECONOMIC
EFFICIENCY
ENVIRONMENT
ENERGETY
SECURITY
IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES 3
What would be the effects in an 100 $/barrel scenario and 25 €/Tn CO2 emissions?
Average generation costs (€/MWh)
Coal
60-70
CCGT
75-85
Wind
50-60
Biomass
60-80
Solar0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Hydro
40-60
Fuel
100-110
200-300
Fuel effect: increase barrel price to 100$
MDL effect: CO2 at 25€ Tn
50-60 60-6570-80 70-80
80-10030-40
190-280
• A short term analysis:
• Renewables are today more expensive. They need to receive finantial support from consumers
• However, those costs are the result of a simple and static analysis:
• Prices include energy dependence?
• These figures internalyze all environmental costs?
• How fuel price will evolve?• What effects would produce a
sharp CO2 cost increase?
IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES 4
Strong need for investment
• IEA believes it is necessary to invest some 20 trillion dolars in the 2005-2030 period in order to satisfy future energy demand
Source: IEA
IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES 5
The crossroads: What is the path to follow?
HYDROCARBONS:
- Limited reserves
- High political risks
- Large environmental impact
HYDROCARBONS:
- Limited reserves
- High political risks
- Large environmental impact
COAL:
- Large reserves. Low political risk
- High enviromental impact
- “Bridge technology”
- CO2 Capture &
- “Clean coal”
COAL:
- Large reserves. Low political risk
- High enviromental impact
- “Bridge technology”
- CO2 Capture &
- “Clean coal”
RENEWABLE ENERGY:
- Higher investment costs
- Wide social dialogue
- International collaboration
- Enhanced interconnections
- Need for R&D
- EU Target: 20% by 2020
RENEWABLE ENERGY:
- Higher investment costs
- Wide social dialogue
- International collaboration
- Enhanced interconnections
- Need for R&D
- EU Target: 20% by 2020
NUCLEAR ENERGY:
- Risky. Only “safe countries”
- High specific investment
- Treatment of radioactive waste
- Social unrest
NUCLEAR ENERGY:
- Risky. Only “safe countries”
- High specific investment
- Treatment of radioactive waste
- Social unrest
Population and economic output increase energy
demand
Energy at a reasonable cost is a must
Enviroment restrictions
Fossil fuel reserves and economic implications
NATURAL GAS:
- Large reserves
- Geographically diversified sources
- Growing political risks
- Lower environmental impact
NATURAL GAS:
- Large reserves
- Geographically diversified sources
- Growing political risks
- Lower environmental impact
Renewables deliver energy and environmental advantages but also economic