The Evolution of Technology

Where Will Technology Be in 2022?

•Communications Students do not need a Swami!

The Umbrella Perspective on Communication Technology

The Umbrella Perspective on Communication Technology

• Stems from the work of Everett M. Rogers (1931-2004) and Sandra J. Ball –Rokeach (b. 1941). (August E. Grant, Jennifer H. Meadows, Communication Technology Update, p. 2)

The Umbrella Perspective on Communication Technology

• Understands Communication Technology on Five Levels:

• Hardware: the technology itself

• Software: the content of the technology

• Organizational Infrastructure: those involved in the production/distribution of the technology

• Social System - the political, economic and media systems environment etc.

• Individual Users - Users of technology, both actual and potential

Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations

Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations

• “Diffusion is the process in which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system.” – Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations: 5 th Edition, p. 5

Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations• Elements:• Innovation• Communication• Time• Social system

Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations• Process:• Knowledge• Persuasion• Decision• Implementation• Confirmation

Moore’s Innovation Adoption Rate

• In his book Crossing the Chasm, Geoffrey A. Moore (b. 1946) built upon Rogers’ work and published a theory of innovation of adoption rate.

Moore’s Innovation Adoption Rate• Moore posits that innovations are adopted gradually

in phases. These consumers are characterized as:• Innovators• Early adapters • Early majority• Late majority• Laggards

Moore’s Innovation Adoption Rate

• “We have a bell curve. The divisions in the curve are roughly equivalent to where standard deviations fall” (Moore, Crossing the Chasm, p. 11)

Critical Mass Theory• Critical Mass Theory is

another topic addressed thoroughly in Everett M. Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations.

Critical Mass Theory• Critical mass is the sufficient number of adopters

of a particular innovation in a social system to make the rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining and create further growth.

Uses and Gratifications Theory• Uses and gratifications theory is an audience-

centered approach to understanding why and how people actively seek out specific media to satisfy specific needs. It is unique in it focus on how people use media.

Uses and Gratifications Theory• Uses and

Gratifications Theory has been developed over time. In 1944, Herta Herzog (1910-2010) interviewed soap opera listeners and discovered three gratifications categories: emotional, wishful thinking, and learning.

Uses and Gratifications Theory• The theory underwent a revival in the 1970s.

Elihu Katz (b. 1926), Jay Blumler (b. 1924), Michael Gurevitch (1930-2008) and others have expanded upon Herzog's work, making great contributions to Uses and Gratifications Theory.

Uses and Gratifications Theory• There are many reasons people use

media. Four primary factors for which one may use the media:

• Diversion: Escape from routine and problems; an emotional release

• Personal Relationships: Social utility of information in conversation; substitution of media for companionship

• Personal Identity or Individual Psychology: Value reinforcement or reassurance; self-understanding, reality exploration

• Surveillance: Information about factors which might affect one or will help one do or accomplish something

Media Systems Dependency Theory

• Media systems dependency theory was developed by Sandra Ball-Rokeach (b. 1941) and Melvin DeFleur (b. 1923) in 1976 in an article titled “A dependency model of mass-media effects”. Communication Research 3 (1): 3–21.

Media Systems Dependency Theory• Media System

Dependency Theory argues that there is a positive correlation between media and dependency: The more dependent a person is on media to meet needs, the more prevalent media will be in the person's life, and consequently the person will be more affected by media.

Media Systems Dependency Theory• Ball-Rokeach and DeFleur

identify three media needs which determine how important media is to a person at any given moment:

• 1. Surveillance: The need to understand one's social world

• 2. Social Uitlity: The need to act meaningfully and effectively in that world

• 3) Fantasy-Escape: The need to escape from that world when tensions are high

Social Learning Theory/Social Cognitive Theory

• Social cognitive theory postulates that knowledge acquisition can be directly related to observing others within the context of outside media influences.

Social Learning Theory/Social Cognitive Theory

• Social cognitive theory developed from the social learning theory proposed by Neal E. Miller (1909-2002) and John Dollard (1900-1980) in 1941.

The Theory of the Long Tail• The theory of the Long Tail states that society is

increasingly shifting away from a focus on a relatively small number mainstream products at the head of the demand curve and toward a huge number of niches in the tail.

The Theory of the Long Tail• A big factor in the Theory

of the Long Tail is the Internet. The web allows consumers to find less popular items and subjects. Products with lesser demand can now find an audience. For instance, Amazon, Netflix and iTunes can afford to feature lesser known books, movies and songs. respectively

The Theory of the Long Tail• The Theory of the Long

Tail is obviously relatively new. It was popularized by Chris Anderson (b. 1961) in an article in the October 2004 issue of Wired magazine article. He expounded on the theory in his book The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More (2006).

The Principle of Relative Constancy

• The Principle of Relative Constancy claims that the popularity of new media will not completely eliminate established forms of media. For example, the internet will not make TV, radio or newspapers obsolete.

The Principle of Relative Constancy

• For instance, the rise of television in the 1950s cut into the market shares of movies, radio and newspapers. But those media survived.

Applying the Theories

Smartphones• The smart phone is a is a

mobile phone with advanced computing capacity and connectivity. The device was conceptualized in 1973 but was not produced until 1994. The term “smart phone” debuted in 1997, when Ericsson dubbed its GS 88 “Penelope” concept as a Smart Phone.

Smartphones• In June 2013, the Pew Research Center’s Internet &

American Life Project, reported that 61% of Americans own a smart phone. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2013/06/more-than-half-of-americans-own-smartphones/)

Smartphones• 61& marks a significant

jump is smart phone ownership. According to Pew’s previous reports, the figure is up from 46& in February 2012 and 35% in May 2011. (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2013/06/more-than-half-of-americans-own-smartphones/)

• Based on Moore’s Innovation Adaptation Rate, the smart phone has surpassed the point of innovators , early adopters and early majority and entered the point of a late majority.

Smartphones• In May 2013, smartphone

ownership reached critical mass for the first time in the United States. The device is now self –sustaining. (http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57587932-94/smartphone-ownership-reaches-critical-mass-in-the-u.s/)

Smartphones• Smartphones have the capacity to

meet most needs of the Uses and Gratifications Theory. In June 2013, research by Parks Associates reported that 48% of U.S. smartphone users currently use apps for day-to-day information and entertainment. In addition, 15% a smartphone phone to order food while 12% use the device to shop.(http://www.mobilesecurityzone.com/topics/mobile-security/articles/343963-what-people-use-their-smartphones.htm)

Smartphones• Smartphones are also

exemplars of the Media Systems Dependency Theory. In May 2013, a study from Experian discovered that users spend an average of 58 minutes per day on their smartphones. Talk time still outweighed times spent on other applications. (http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/29/tech/mobile/smartphone-time-study)

Smartphones• Smartphones are here to

stay. It is predicted that by 2015, 84% of mobile users in North America and 88% in Western Europe will be smartphone users.(http://www.mobilesecurityzone.com/topics/mobile-security/articles/343963-what-people-use-their-smartphones.htm)

The Internet• The Internet is a global

system of interconnected computer networks that use the standard Internet protocol suite. Developed in the 1960s, the Internet has had a tremendous impact on culture and commerce since the mid-1990s and now serves several billion users worldwide.

Social Networking• A social networking service is a platform to build social

networks or social relations among people. Numerous social networking applications are available to contemporary users.

Television• Television is a medium

for transmitting and receiving moving images and sounds. Kenjiro Takayanagi demonstrated the first working television in Japan in 1926. The technology became commercially available in the late 1920s and has been a primary means of communication since the 1950s.