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Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing DANAI KOUTRA PAUL BENNETT ERIC HORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast, Australia

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Page 1: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Carnegie Mellon University

Influences of a Shocking News Event

on Web Browsing DANAI KOUTRA PAUL BENNETT ERIC HORVITZ

TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast, Australia

Page 2: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

In a nutshell - What?

Focus on polarizing topics topics for which there exist ‘many’ different / contradictory

opinions

Page 3: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Genetically Modified Food

Page 4: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Gun Control

Page 5: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

In a nutshell - What?

Focus on polarizing topics.

- Why? Often the issued queries reveal our opinions,which are in turn reinforced by the search engines.

Page 6: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

In a nutshell - What?

Focus on polarizing topics.

- Why? Often the issued queries reveal our opinions,which are in turn reinforced by the search engines.

- Goal: Make all results accessible, and

allow the user to skip them.

Page 7: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Steps along this path

Understand how people browse webpages on a polarizing topic

Page 8: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Steps along this path

Understand how people browse webpages on a polarizing topicTime evolution + effect of events

How does user browsing behavior change after an event?How do external events affect the polarity of a topic over time?

Page 9: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Data and time period to study

Page 10: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Sandy Hook Elementary ShootingDec 14, 2012

Where: Sandy Hook Elementary, Newtown, Connecticut, USA Who: Single perpetrator (20 yo male) Historical significance: Most deadly shooting in US History at high-school or grade-school and second deadliest

mass shooting in US History by a single perpetrator. Casualties: 20 children (mostly 6 or 7 yo’s), 6 staff members, perpetrator’s mother, perpetrator Primary Weapon: Legally acquired (by mother) semi-automatic Bushmaster XM15-E2S rifle with multiple 30-round

magazines At school: 154 shots with rifle, 2 shots with pistol Primary Span: 5 minutes (all shootings except mother) 9:35 a.m. Shooter enters, 9:35:39 a.m. 911, 9:39:00 a.m. Police on scene, 9:40:03 a.m. shooter suicide

Motive: none determined Other factors: multiple psychological conditions

RQ: Does a shocking event of historical significance prompt both sides of a debate to explore the views of the other side?• As evidenced by search and browsing behavior • Over non-news articles (indicates intent to explore topic rather than simply follow news)• On topic (any of guns, gun rights, and gun control)

Page 11: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Data Data source: web browser toolbar logs (search + browsing behavior) Topic: gun control

Event: Sandy Hookshooting

Page 12: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Data Data source: web browser toolbar logs (search + browsing behavior) Topic: gun control

Event: Sandy Hookshooting

Longer time period to compensate for the increased activity after the event

Page 13: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Data extraction, cleaning

Page 14: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Data Extraction: Main Idea

◦ Start from queries that are on-topic+

◦ Expand them to get more relevant queriesand URLs

http://www.banhandgunsnow.org/

http://www.adequacy.org/stories/2001....7.html

Page 15: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Data Extraction: Identification of Relevant Queries

Identify relevant queries and URLs: (a) find seed queries from the whole period

◦ Queries containing one of the phrases: gun control, gun rights

(b) get relevant queries◦ By doing 2-step random walk on the query-click graph

Page 16: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Data Extraction: Identification of Relevant Queries

Page 17: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Data Extraction: Identification of Relevant URLs

Relevant query Relevant URL

irrelevant query

X

Click trail 1

Click trail 2

Page 18: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Data

Event: Sandy Hookshooting

Page 19: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Data Labeling

Page 20: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Labeling the webpages

- Label all non-news on-topic sites visited by at least two users- 2 assessors

- Self-identified moderate gun rights- Self-identified moderate gun control

- 6 labels: extreme gun control, moderate gun control, highly balanced, purely factual, moderate gun rights, extreme gun rights

- 3 labels: gun control, balanced, gun rights …

Page 21: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Labeling the webpages

- 2 assessors- 6 labels: extreme gun control, moderate gun control,

highly balanced, purely factual, moderate gun rights, extreme gun rights

- 3 labels: gun control, balanced, gun rights

…Inter-rater agreement:

Page 22: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Temporal Evolution

Page 23: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Daily visits for all users

The event clearly had considerable influence on

information seeking about gun control related topics.

Page 24: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Normalized daily visits for all users

Gun BanList

Gun controlpetition

Sandy Hook

Bob Costas

Page 25: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Web Transitions

Page 26: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Goals1. Which are the most common transitions?

2. Are there changes in transitions due to the news on the Newtown shootings?

=> obtain a micro-level view of information consumption patterns.

Page 27: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Setup for Analysis1. Model the browsing history as a Markov chain

pij = Prob( Xt+1 = | Xt = )

e.g., pij = Prob( Xt+1 = ‘gun control’ | Xt = ‘gun rights’ )

2. Use mobility indices widely used in economics and sociology to identify trends and changes in the system

Page 28: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Transition matricesfor all users

Immobility ratio IR = % same-state transitions IR = 0.2486

25% transitions are same state

Page 29: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Transition matricesfor all users

Immobility ratio IR = % same-state transitions IR = 0.2486

25% transitions are same state

50% transitions toward extreme gun rights

only 25% transitions toward extreme gun control

Moving up MU = % transitions from control to rights MU = 0.4997

Moving up MD = % transitions from rights to control MD =0.2518

Page 30: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Change in transition matricesfor common users

After the event:Immobility (IR) Control -> Rights (MU) Rights -> Control (MD)

Before S.H.

AfterS.H.

Mobility Indices

Page 31: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Change in transition matricesfor common users

After the event:Immobility (IR) Control -> Rights (MU) Rights -> Control (MD)

Before S.H.

AfterS.H.

Mobility Indices

Overall, the system moves towards extreme stances and mainly

exploration of gun rights.

Page 32: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Conclusions ◦ Topically

◦ People use the web to largely access agreeable information.◦ Half of the transitions are from gun control to gun rights pages.◦ After the shootings, the system moves into extreme stances, and mainly towards content taking

an extreme gun rights stance.

◦ Methodologically◦ Mobility indices/Matrix distances as change measure◦ All users vs users observed both before/after◦ Entropy as a diversity measure

Page 34: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Are balanced webpages bridges between opposing views?

Most transitions between the two sides occur directly, without accessing balanced webpages.

?

Page 35: Carnegie Mellon University Influences of a Shocking News Event on Web Browsing D ANAI K OUTRA P AUL B ENNETT E RIC H ORVITZ TAIA ’14 (SIGIR), Gold Coast,

Future work: Location based analysis

less diverse

morediverse

Change in user diversity after S.H. (per state)