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Hugh DubberlyDubberly Design Offi ce
Carnegie-Mellon University Pittsburgh, PAUniversity Lecture Series / HCII Seminar Series November 2, 2018
How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice
Presentation posted atpresentations.dubberly.com/cmu2018.pdf
values
designer producttools
context
values
stakeholders
2Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Design practice is continually evolving,across several dimensions, including:
– where we design —the context of designing
– what we design —the “product” of designing
– how we design —the methods which entail designingand the tools used in designing
– who designs —stakeholders: producers, consumers, sponsors
– why we design —goals, values, language
1980Tools
1995Medium
2015Material
Time
Capa
bilit
y
3Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
The most obvious change may beincorporating computers in how we design.
4Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
— Paul Rand, 1990, (personal communication)
*Science and Technology Studies (STS) provides insight into how knowledge is produced.Many ideas developed in STS apply to design practice and can describe how artifacts and other “products of design” are produced. Design Studies might take up this subject more fully, or perhaps a new discipline is needed: Design and Technology Studies (DTS).
“For designers,the computer is just a tool, like the pencil.”
Conventional wisdom* has been
1980Tools
1995Medium
2015Material
Time
Capa
bilit
y
Analysis
Collaboration
Management
Synthesis Production
5Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Tool augmenting the design process – Analysis,
e.g., Christopher Alexander’s decomposition of problems
– Synthesis,e.g., Fractals, cellular automata, genetic algorithms, neural nets
– Production,e.g., AutoCAD, PageMaker, Illustrator, Photoshop, Maya
– Management,i.e., budgets, schedules, and rational, e.g., Horst Rittel’s IBIS
– Collaboration,e.g., Nicholas Negroponte’s Architecture Machine
1980Tools
1995Medium
2015Material
Time
Capa
bilit
y
Portals Networks Platforms
6Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Medium connecting the “products of design” with users – Portals,
i.e., into games, apps, information spaces, dynamic environments
– Networks,e.g., The Well, CompuServe, Prodigy, AOL, MSN, the Internet
– Platforms for publishing,e.g., DNS enabling HFS, CMS such as WordPress etc.
1980Tools
1995Medium
2015Material
Time
Capa
bilit
y
7Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Material to be shaped into “products of design” – Information structures,
e.g., VideoWorks-Director-Flash, HyperCard, HTML-CSS
– Process structures,i.e., code, e.g., Seymour Papert’s Logo, JS, Processing, Jupyter
– Data visualizations,e.g., D3.js, Bret Victor’s “explorable explanations”
– Data-dependent services,e.g., recommendations, like search, also bought, newsfeeds
8Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
The design of data-dependent services is a huge shift in howand what we design.
9Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
FromPhysical artifacts— objects
ToAdaptive systems— ecologies
Product Design
Focus Groups
Human Factors
Usability Studies
Interaction Design
Data-driven Design
Service Design
Model-driven Design
Thermostat
presence detected by
sets
68º
Home Owners
Radius (distance from house)
Air Temperature
Disturbances(changes in weather)
Efficiency
Goals
Comfort
Cloud Services:- alerts- reporting- weather- home system integration
changes setpoints
ScheduleMobile App
Cold weather draws heat fromthe house.
Hot weather heats the house.
Geofence
connects to
Using a mobile app, homeowners can create a virtual fence around their home. The GPS location in their phone signals residents’ presence or absence, triggering home/away settings.
connects by WiFi to
connec
ts to
conn
ects
to
Cloud
68ºAway
Furnace
sign
al
homem t w t f ss
away
warm air cool air
sign
al
Air Conditioner
Router AmazonEcho
or similar devices
Air Handler(fans)
10Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
A smart thermostat gathers together a larger network of products, services, people, and their interactions.
AC
Furnace (in sub-floor)
Nest Thermostat
Nest Smoke + CO Alarm
Nest Smoke + CO Alarm Nest Smoke + CO Alarm
Air Intake
Air Output
Air Output
Air Output
Air OutputAir OutputAir Output
WaterHeater
Refrigerator
Clean water in
Water company keeps track of usage and bills accordingly.
Dishwasher
Sprinkler
Sprinkler
Sprinkler
Sprinkler
SprinklerSprinkler
SinkWasher
Dirty water out
Toilet
Sink
Tub/Shower
Sprinkler Control Panel
Sprinkler
Sprinkler
Sprinkler
Dryer(could beelectric)
Oven / Range
Gas Fireplace
Gas Meter
Gas company keeps track of usage and bills accordingly.
Nest Cam
Nest Cam
Baby Cam
Window shadeWindow shadeWindow shadeWindow shadeWindow shadeWindow shadeWindow shade
Window shade
Window shade Window shade
Window shade Window shade Window shade Window shade Window shade Window shade
Door Sensor
Door Sensor
Door Sensor
Window SensorWindow SensorWindow SensorWindow SensorWindow SensorWindow SensorWindow Sensor
Window Sensor
Window Sensor
Window Sensor Window Sensor Window Sensor Window Sensor Window Sensor Window Sensor
Motion Sensor
Control Panel
Control PanelHub(Cellular
or connectedto landline)
Heat Sensor
Heat Sensor
Motion Sensor
Motion Sensor
RheemWaterHeater
SamsungRefrigerator
BoschDishwasher
LG Washer
GE Oven
LG Dryer
Crock-PotSamsung TV (has apps)
Sonos home theatre
Pioneer Speakers
Pioneer Speakers
Apple Wireless RouterMotorola Cable Modem
Comcast Cable boxApple TV set top boxSamsung Blu-Ray / DVD playerXbox One gaming console
Apple Desktopand/or laptopand/or tablet
Epson Printer
Internet Connection
Could be Cable / DSL / Satellite / Fiber / etc.ISP company keeps track of usagebut bills a pre-determined flat rate.
Apple Smartphone
GoPro
94Fifty basketballDJI Phantom 3 drone
Platform:
Apple CarPlayAndroid AutoFord AppLink
Sensors:
Back up cameraLane swerveBrakingHeatingCoolingetc.Over 200 in all
Vehicle:
Toyota PriusHybrid
Specialized Turboelectric bicycle
Boosted boardmotorized skateboard
LightLight
Light
Light
Light
Light
Light
Light
Light
Switch
Switch
LightLight
Light Light
Light
Light
Switch
Switch
Switch
Switch
Outlet
OutletOutlet
Outlet
OutletOutlet
Outlet
Outlet
Switch
Outlet Outlet
OutletSwitchOutletOutlet
Outlet
OutletSwitch Outlet
Outlet Outlet
Outlet
Outlet
Switch
Outlet
Outlet
Outlet
Electrical Panel
Electric company keeps track of usage and bills accordingly.
Outlet
Switch
Apple Watchor Fitbit
or Jawbone
Speck Air Quality Monitor
Speck Air Quality Monitor
Speck Air Quality Monitor
SmartSense Multi-sensor
Neatmo Weather Station
WithingsSmart Scale
SmartThings Hub
Roomba Vacuum
Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
The HVAC network is part of an even larger home ecology.
12Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
“It seems to me that the notion of machine that was current in the course of the Industrial Revolution — and which we might have inherited — is a notion, essentially, of a machine without goal, it had no goal ‘of ’, it had a goal ‘for’.
And this gradually developed into the notion of machines with goals ‘of ’, like thermostats, which I might begin to object to because they might compete with me.
Now we’ve got the notion of a machine with an underspecifi ed goal, the system that evolves. Th is is a new notion, nothing like the notion of machines that was current in the Industrial Revolution, absolutely nothing like it. It is, if you like, a much more biological notion, maybe I’m wrong to call such a thing a machine; I gave that label to it because I like to realise things as artifacts, but you might not call the system a machine, you might call it something else.”
— Gordon Pask, 1972 (See Usman Haque, 2007)
13Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
— Jodi Forlizzi, HCII, CMU, 2008
“...networks of products, services, technology, people, and collective and collaborative interaction are generating value for the populations they serve.”
We might call it a “product-service ecology”.
3.2
open
close 3.1
1.2
2.2
2.1
Through a system of gears and pulleys the speed of the steam engine is transferred to the gear at the base of the flyball governor— causing it to rotate. At low speed, the flyweights remain close to the spinning central axis As speed increases, the flyweights swing outward, and upward. At low speed, the scissor mechanism pushes the lever arm up At high speed the scissor mechanism pulls the lever arm down At low speed, the lever arm pushes the throttle valve open; increasing the flow of steam
0
1.1
1.2
2.1
2.2
3.1
1.1
0
14Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
— Kevin Kelly, Out of Control, 2000
“Th ere could not have been an industrial revolution without a parallel (though hidden) information revolution at the same time, launched by the rapid spread of the automatic feedback system.”
Information has been critical from the beginning.
James Watt’s fl y-ball governor, 1788.
15Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Yet only recently, have we begun to talk about data and its role in designing and as a material.
16Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
https://stopdesign.com/archive/2009/03/20/goodbye-google.html
“When a company is fi lled with engineers,...data eventually becomes a crutch for every decision,...
Yes, it’s true that a team at Google couldn’t decide between two blues, so they’re testing 41 shades between each blue to see which one performs better....
I can’t operate in an environment like that.”
A-B testing has become the norm on large services.
— Douglas Bowman, 2009
17Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
— Irene Au, 2012, personal communications
“It turns out, the diff erence between one shade of blue and another,at the scale of Google search,can be worth millions of dollars per year.”
A lot is at stake — personal values and shareholder value.
18Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
— Elizabeth Churchill et al., Designing with Data: Improving the User Experience with A/B Testing, 2017
“Design is and always has been informed by data....
By harnessing and leveraging the power of data at scale...new ways to understand people, ‘users,’ are emerging.”
A Model of Data-driven Design
1. Product2. Smart product
Software
3. Smart, connected product
Remotedevices
Software
4. Product system
Planters
Combineharvesters
Tillers
Tractors
FarmEquipment
System
Remotedevices
Software
5. Systems of systems
IrrigationSystem
Irrigation nodes
Irrigationapplication
Fieldsensors
Weather DataSystem
Weather dataapplication
Weather forecastsWeather maps
Rain, humidity,temperature sensors
FarmManagement
System
SeedOptimization
SystemSeed database
Farm performancedatabase
Seed optimizationapplication
Planters
Combineharvesters
Tillers
Tractors
FarmEquipment
System
Remotedevices
Software
19Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
“...smart, connected products are transforming competition”and “redefi ning industry boundaries”
— Michael Porter, HBR, 2014
20Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
“Capabilities of Smart, Connected Products”
— Michael Porter, HBR, 2014
Ad Words Buyer CRM System Training Competitive Info Offers
behavior monitored by patterns extracted
21Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
An exemplar of Porter’s “optimization” capabilityis Google’s CRM system.
Google CRM (GRM) is a sort of machine driving ad-words revenue.It tracks buyer behavior and responds to changes with “encouragement”.It has the goal of “regulating” buyer behavior.Human managers still introduce new offers,but the system learns and operates largely on its own.
22Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
How can we reconcile the Churchill and Porter models?
Time
Capa
bilit
y
23Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
A model of Data-dependent Services
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware
State of nature
24Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Example: An individual managing diabetes
Patient
Metabolism
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware
State of nature
25Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
State of natureMetabolism happens on its own.The individual is unaware.(But the body is aware.)
Patient
Health
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware — refl ecting, possible sensing
State of nature
26Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Data awareThe individual learns diet + exercise affectweight, blood glucose, and general health.
Patient
DietExercise
gains carbsburns carbs
Health
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informed — sensing, refl ecting, possible acting, “open loop”Data aware
State of nature
27Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Data informedThe individual counts carbs and steps;choices start to affect behavior.
Drop of blood
Lancing device Patient
DietExercise
Insulin and
syringe and needle
uses lancing device to take
blood from finger prick
obtains
gains carbsburns carbs
manually injects
manually prepares
displays readings
BG Meter
BG strips
BG lancets
installed in
placed onto
inserted into
Health
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData driven — sensing, refl ecting, acting on feedback (human closes the loop)Data informedData aware
State of nature
28Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Data drivenMeasuring BG drives insulin dosing,reducing “highs” and avoiding “lows”.
Transmitter
Sensor & patch Patient
DietExercise
Insulin pump
Mobile phone
penetrates body fat
adheres to skin
holds
gains carbsburns carbs
manually injects
manually prepares
displays readings
communicates with
Health
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animated — collecting data history, recognizing patterns, predicting outcomesData drivenData informedData aware
State of nature
29Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Model driven / data animatedA CGM recognizes “trends”and provides prompts and warnings.
Insulin pump
Infusion set cannula
& tubing
Mobile phone
Transmitter
Sensor & patch Patient
DietExercise
penetrates body fat
adheres to skin
delivers
insulin via
communicates with
penetrates body fat
adheres to skin
holds
gains carbsburns carbs
manually control with pump buttons
Health
displays readings
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomous — closed loop with minimal human inputsModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware
State of nature
30Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Semi-autonomousCGM connects to a pump;person still inputs carbs and exercise.
Insulin pump
Infusion set cannula
& tubing
Wearable
Transmitter
Sensor & patch Patient
DietExercise
penetrates body fat
adheres to skin
delivers
insulin via
penetrates body fat
adheres to skin
holds
gains carbsburns carbsother sensing
communicates with
Health
communicates with
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-driving — closed loop, no human inputSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware
State of nature
31Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Autonomous / self-drivingA true “artifi cial pancreas”; the system measures carbs + exercise. (We’re not here, yet.)
Insulin pump
Infusion set cannula
& tubing
Wearable
Transmitter
Sensor & patch Patient
DietExercise
penetrates body fat
adheres to skin
delivers
insulin via
penetrates body fat
adheres to skin
holds
gains carbsburns carbsother sensing
communicates with
Health
communicates with
Metabolism
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware
State of nature
Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
New Kind of NatureMetabolism happens on its own.The individual is unaware. (But the system is “aware”.)
33Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Example: An organization managing a population of individuals with diabetes
Patient HCP
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware
State of nature
34Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
State of natureIndividuals are treated in isolation;no concept of “patient population”.
Patient HCP Check List
Cost? Risk?
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware — refl ecting, possible sensing
State of nature
35Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Data awareHCPs establish standards of care; fees paid for services. Managing risks and costs become a concern.
Patient
Payer
Database
HCP Check List
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informed — sensing, refl ecting, possible acting, “open loop”Data aware
State of nature
36Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Data informedSystematic measurement of outcomes begins;payers compare organizational performance.
Patient HCP
$
Check List
Payer
Database
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData driven — sensing, refl ecting, acting on feedback (human closes the loop)Data informedData aware
State of nature
37Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Data driven“Pay-for-performance” begins (feedback);“outcomes” begin to drive HCP actions.
Patient
Database
Neural Net
HCP Check List
Payer
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animated — collecting data history, recognizing patterns, predicting outcomesData drivenData informedData aware
State of nature
38Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Model driven / data animatedHistorical data creates risk models;system refers “high risk” folks to HCPs.
HealthcareManager
PersonalManager
Patient
Database
Neural Net
HCP Check ListSensors
CRM SystemPayer
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomous — closed loop with minimal human inputsModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware
State of nature
39Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Semi-autonomousHealthcare embraces sensors and CRM;the system interacts directly with patients.
StatePatient
Database
Neural Net
Check List
CRM System
PersonalManager
Sensors
HealthcareManager
Payer
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-driving — closed loop, no human inputSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware
State of nature
40Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Autonomous / self-drivingState (or payers) measure behavior; deviation from norms carries a high cost.
Max Schrems and his 1,200 page Facebook profi le.
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware
State of nature
41Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
New Kind of NatureA new balance between freedom and responsibility;Privacy is dead for all but the very wealthy.
New Kind of Nature
Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware
State of nature
42Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
This model describes organizations and individuals;it serves in the large and the small.
43Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
In other words, we are beginning to create “digital twins” —of machines, of people, of organizations, and the whole earth.
44Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Conclusion
Foundation products:
Communications:
Human-machine interactions:
Cloud services:
Patient journeys:
Infrastructure:
Business models:
e.g., CGM, phone, pump, supplies
e.g., Packaging, documentation
i.e., physical + virtual UIs
e.g., patient portal, HCP portal; payer integration
e.g., on-boarding, ordering, training, support, monitoring
e.g., distribution systems, payment systems
e.g., better outcomes, lower costs
45Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Product-service ecologies change what designers design:
Micro-processors:
Operating systems:
Routing systems:
File systems:
Data storage systems:
Data refi neries:
Services:
e.g., 8086, 80286, 80386, etc.
e.g., Windows
e.g., DNS
e.g., HFS, Descartes Festivus
e.g., RDBMS, Hadoop, Bigtable
e.g., Predix, Descartes
e.g., CRM
46Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Product-service ecologies depend on a series of platforms:
47Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
Self-driving cars are very nearly real.Are self-driving organizations next?
Internet Research Agency
48Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018
The fi rst semi-autonomous organizations are already here.
Presentation posted atpresentations.dubberly.com/cmu2018.pdf
hugh@dubberly@DubberlyDesign
Special thanks to Karen BerntsenJodi ForlizziPaul PangaroJohn CainRyan Reposar