carolyn boroden cb@fibonacciqueen - cmt association – … · carolyn boroden cb@fibonacciqueen...
TRANSCRIPT
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A price cluster is the coincidence of at least three or more
Fibonacci price relationships within a relatively tight range.
These clusters identify potential key support and resistance
zones. If you take trades against these cluster zones with a
good “trigger” or “filter” (with the trend in mind), you can
greatly improve your trading results.
Symmetry by itself can also be used to create a “trade setup”.
It is similarity of swings in the same direction.
A two-step pattern is a variation of a price cluster trade.
High Probability Setups
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Ratios and Price RelationshipsRatios used in the analysis: .382, .50, .618, .786, 1.00, 1.272 & 1.618
Confirming ratios: .236 and 2.618
With these ratios we run:Retracements of prior highs to lows or lows to highs
Using .382, .50, .618, .786 (.236)
Extensions of prior highs to lows or lows to highs
Using 1.272 and 1.618 (2.618)
Projections of prior high to low swings projected from a high OR
Projections of prior low to highs projected from a new low
Using 100% and 1.618 (2.618)
This work gives us our “SETUPS”
price clusters, symmetry and two-step patterns
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For the highest probability setups, you want to focus on the trades in the
direction of the trend of the chart you are analyzing
These setups give you definition of RISK and TARGETS
Look at the pattern on the chart you are setting up
If it is bearish (lower lows and highs) set up the sell side
If it is bullish (higher highs and lows) set up the buy side
Once you have a setup, go to a lower time frame chart to look for an entry
trigger.
For example, for a setup on the 15 minute chart, go down to a 3 min chart, or
a 1 minute chart or a tick chart (233 tick, 144 tick or 89 tick)
Tools used in this analysis
Fibonacci price relationships
Fibonacci Timing
Understanding of symmetry (holding and breaking)
Pattern
Extensions for targets
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Fibonacci Price RetracementsFor retracements, we are measuring prior low to high or high to low swings. Then
we multiply by the retracement ratios (.382, .50, .618 and .786). and either
subtract the result from the high (if running low to high swings for support) or
add the result to the low (if running high to low swings for resistance).
% Retracement .382, .50, .618, .786
low
high
for potential support
for potential resistance
high
low
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Fibonacci Price Extensions
Price extensions are essentially Retracements beyond 100%
We most often use 1.272 and 1.618 as extension levels.
low
high
high
low
run the low to high
extensions for possible
support
Run the high to low
extensions for possible
resistance
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Fibonacci Price Objectives
(Projections)
low
Fibonacci price objectives or “projections” are measured from 3 points or prior highs and
lows in a market. We typically use 1.00% and 1.618 for these projections.
high
low
for possible resistance for possible support
high
low
high
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E-mini Russell
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Target eventually met
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Symmetry (the power tool)
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Ideally we want to enter in the direction
of the main trend
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This zone was test multiple times
before it took off in earnest
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Note the timing considerations***
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Decision to decision
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Fibonacci Timing
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Timing Result
We eventually saw a new high, but did see
a 60.20 point decline from the timing cycles
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Did it kick in?
NO….not this time
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77.90 10 days
77.80 10 days
GREAT SETUP
It eventually failed
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Price cluster with timing
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One decision to the next!!
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Price cluster with timing
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A good case for a trailing stopWe did NOT make the daily target