carrying out scale-relevant collaborative research on drivers of change lessons and insight from...
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A presentation prepared by Bob Scholes for the workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008.TRANSCRIPT
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Carrying out scale-relevant collaborative research on drivers of change
lessons and insight from SAfMA & other initiatives
Bob Scholes, [email protected]
Nairobi, 12 June 2008
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The importance of a having a conceptual model
The MA conceptual model was simple, but sufficient for the purpose
In some respects, it was even arguably wrong
But it did provide a way of teasing out proximal drivers, ultimate drivers, feedback effects and interventions, and createda framework in which both human sciences andnatural sciences could locate themselves
Source: MEA (2003) Ecosystem services and human well-being. Island Press
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Causality in systems with feedback
a b
c
Which is cause, and which effect?
Tools you can use• Cause still precedes effect• Analysing the strength of the feedback can help• At what point was the external perturbation applied?
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Example of complex causality
• In Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa, large areas of land formerly managed for cattle and sheep switched to wildlife, 1975 onward
• Many factors were involved, includingo Declining profitability of cattle and sheep ranchingo Rising demand for hunting and ecotourismo Deteriorating on-farm securityo Intergenerational lifestyle changes
• The changes in legislation relating to ownership of wildlife actually followed rather than preceded these factors
Source: Scholes et al (in prep)
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Meta-analysisThe relative weights of the many causes of food insecurity
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Causality: Nutrition insecurityarguments from a knowledge of underlying processes
Source: Scholes RJ and R Biggs 2004 Ecosystem services in southern Africa: a Regional assessment. CSIR
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Getting the relationships rightExample: How does biodiversity link to ecosystem
services, and services to human wellbeing?
Society
Biodiversity
utilitarianvalues
intrinsicvalues
The naïve view
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The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2003) scheme
Human wellbeing
Materialneeds
Good social relations
Health Security Freedom & choice
ProvisioningFood, fibre, water, woodmedicines
SupportingNutrient Cycles, NPP
RegulatingClimate, disease, floods
CulturalAestheticsTourismspiritual
Biodiversity
Indirectdrivers
DirectDriversClimate change
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Provisioningfood, fibre, wood water, air, genes,medicines
Culturalaesthetics, ethicstourism & recreationspiritual, sense of place
Human wellbeingFreedom and choice
Security Material needs Health Social relations
market &nonmarket
values
Regulatingclimate, floods, pests & disease
SupportingEcosystem processes, Habitat provision
Biodiversity
insurancevalue
functionaltypes
landscapediversity
speciesdiversity
responsediversity
Ecosystem services
interactions
The MA followup schemeSource: Kinzig, Perrings and Scholes (submitted)
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Multiscale
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Human Wellbeing
Ecosystemservices
Direct drivers
Indirect drivers
Cross-scale
Source: Carpenter et al 2006 Science 313 257-258
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‘Right-scale’ or ‘multiscale’?
• Matching scale of analysis to scale of process and scale of intervention is important
• But, because of cross-scale interactions, there often is not a single ‘optimum’ scaleo Rather than go for a ‘best compromise’, an
integrated multiscale approach is recommended
o Seldom needs to include more than 3 scales
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Sparse nesting as an efficient approach
Global Millennium Assessment
~35 others
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Engaging other knowledge systemsif they want to have an impact in the ‘evidence-based’ space they
need to migrate to that quadrant, by being placed in the public domain, and subject to rules of evidence. This is their choice.
Apply rules: ie, test
docume
nt
Christo Fabricius, Bob Scholes and Georgina CundillMobilising knowledge for ecosystem assessmentsProceedings of the ‘Bridging Scales and Epistemologies’ Conference, Alexandria, Egypt, March 2004
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Some observations on collaborative research
• You must have an agreed conceptual framework, even if it is imperfect
• The rules of engagement areo Work within the frameworko Agree to share information ie explicit, formal quadrant
• Have an institutional framework for resolving conflictso A ‘stakeholder board’ and a ‘technical panel’
• Pay attention to the ‘soft’ issueso Provide opportunities to bond as a teamo Get the balance right between disciplines and personalities
• Partnerships need to be quasi-equal if they are to work
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All the simple problems are done