CARSEYI N S T I T U T E

ISSUE BRIEF NO. 26

SPRING 2011

KeyFindings

A series of regional surveys conducted by Carsey Institute researchers in 2010 and early 2011 asked nearly 9,500 individuals about climate change. Key findings include:• Most people say that they understand either a

moderate amount or a great deal about the issue of global warming or climate change.

• Large majorities agree that climate change is happening now, although they split on whether this is attributed mainly to human or natural causes.

• The level of understanding and specific beliefs about climate change vary from region to region.

• Beliefs about climate change are strongly related to political party. Republicans most often believe either that climate is not changing now or that it is changing but from mainly natural causes. Democrats most often believe that the climate is changing now due mainly to human activities.

• Political polarization is greatest among the Republicans and Democrats who are most confident that they understand this issue. Republicans and Democrats less sure about their understanding also tend to be less far apart in their beliefs.

• People who express lower confidence also might be more likely to change their views in response to weather.

ClimateChangePartisanship,Understanding,andPublicOpinion

L AW R E N C E C . H A M I L T O N

ThreeQuestions,TenSurveys

In2010,CarseyInstituteresearchersbeganincludingthreenewquestionsaboutclimatechangeonaseriesofregionalsurveys.Weaskedhowmuchpeopleunderstand

abouttheissueofglobalwarmingorclimatechange;whethertheythinkthatmostscientistsagreethatclimatechangeishappeningnowasaresultofhumanactivities;andwhattheybelievepersonallyaboutthetopic.Thequestionsareneutrallyworded,concernbeliefsaboutpresentfactsratherthanpos-siblefutureevents,andaddressthemainpointofstatementsmadebyscientists.

AnearlierCarseybriefpresentedresultsfromourfirstsur-veyusingthesequestions,astatewideNewHampshirepollofabout500peopleconductedinApril2010.1FurtherNewHampshirepollstookplaceinJulyandSeptember2010,andinFebruary2011.2Wealsoincludedthesameclimateques-tionsonsixothersurveysconductedinruralareasaroundthecountry,undertheCarseyInstitute’sCommunityandEn-vironmentinRuralAmerica(CERA)initiative.3Together,thefourNewHampshireandsixCERAsurveysinvolved9,489interviewsinsevendifferentregionsoftheUnitedStates.Theyprovideawealthofinformationonpeople’sviewscon-cerningtopicsfrompoliticstoenvironment,communityandfamily.Inthisbrief,wefocusonwhatthesurveysuncoveredaboutclimate-changebeliefs,andtheirrelationshipwithself-assessedunderstanding.

HowMuchDoYouUnderstand?Ourfirstclimate-changequestionaskswhetherpeoplebe-lievetheyunderstandagreatdeal,amoderateamount,onlyalittle,ornothingatallabouttheissueofglobalwarmingorclimatechange.Figure1illustratesresponsesfromthethree2010NewHampshirepolls,combinedintoonechartherebe-causetheyarenotsignificantlydifferent.Morethanone-halfoftherespondentssaytheyunderstand“amoderateamount,”

andmorethanone-fourthsay“agreatdeal.”Theseareself-assessments,nottestedbyafollow-upquiztoseewhetherpeoplecanexplain,forexample,whattheterm“greenhouseeffect”actuallymeans.Thesurveyanswersthusreflectself-confidence,whichhasanuntestedrelationtoknowledge.Forsimplicity,however,weusetheterm“understanding”inreferringtothisquestion.

Three Questions About Climate ChangeThreequestionsaboutclimatechangehavebeenincludedonaseriesofsurveysbyCarseyInstituteresearchers.Thequestionsareneutrallyworded,withtheorderofquestionsandoftheirresponsesrotatedtoavoidpossiblebias.

“Next, I would like to ask you some questions about the issue of global warming or climate change. How much do you feel you understand about this issue—would you say a great deal, a moderate amount, only a little, or nothing at all? 4 A great deal 3 A moderate amount 2 Only a little 1 DK/Nothing at all”

“Which of the following two statements do you think is more accurate? 3 Most scientists agree that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. 2 There is little agreement among scientists whether climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities.” 1 (unsure–volunteered)

“Which of the following three statements do you personally believe? 4 Climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. 3 Climate change is happening now, but caused mainly by natural forces. 2 Climate change is not happening now.” 1 (unsure–volunteered)

TheNewHampshireresponsesinFigure1,where82percentclaimamoderateamountoragreatdealofunder-standing,presentanupperextremeinconfidencecomparedwithourCERAsurveys.AcrossthesixpredominantlyruralCERAregions,however,self-confidenceonthistopicisstillsurprisinglyhigh(Figure2).Largemajoritiesrangingfrom59percent(Appalachia)to77percent(SoutheastAlaska2)saythattheyunderstandatleastamoderateamountaboutclimatechange.One-quarteroftheOlympicPeninsulaandSoutheastAlaskarespondentssaytheyunderstandagreatdeal.Inthenextsections,welookatwhattheirunderstand-ingleadspeopletobelieve.

WhatDoYouPersonallyBelieve?ThehighlevelsofunderstandingreportedbyNewHamp-shireresidentsinFigure1translateintogeneralagreementthatclimateischangingnow(88percent),butdisagreementremainsaboutitsmaincause(Figure3).Aslightmajorityat-tributecurrentclimatechangetohumanactivities,butmorethanone-thirdbelieveinsteadthatithasmainlynaturalcauses.OnlyasmallfractionoftheNewHampshirerespon-dentsbelievethatclimateisnotchangingnow.

Figure4showsresultsonthissamequestionfromthesixCERAsurveys.Acrossallofthesurveys,only4percentto11percentbelievedthatclimateisnotchanging.MajoritiesoftheNorthCountryandSoutheastAlaska2respondentsbelievethatcurrentchangesresultfromhumanactivities.NorthCountryresidents,likethoseofNewHampshire,probablyhavebeeninfluencedbyNewEngland’srecenttrendtowardwarmerwinters.4TheSoutheastAlaska2surveyincludescoverageofJuneau,thestatecapital,where

Figure 1: How much do you understand about global warming or climate change issues? Combined results from three statewide New Hampshire surveys in 2010 (1,531 interviews)

Figure 2: How much do you understand about global warming or climate change issues? Results from six regional CERA surveys in 2010 (7,438 interviews)

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Ten Surveys in Seven RegionsIn2010andearly2011,CarseyInstituteresearchersincludedthethreeclimate-relatedquestionsontensurveyswhichmainlyaskedaboutothertopics.Thesurveysinvolvedatotalof9,489interviews,allconductedbytheSurveyCenterattheUniversityofNewHampshire.Trainedinterviewersusedcomputer-assistedtele-phoneinterviewingtechniques,speakingwithrandomly-selectedindividuals(theadultwithmostrecentbirthday)atrandomly-selectedphonenumbers.Probabilityweightshavebeenappliedtomakeminoradjustmentsformorerepresentativeresults.

New Hampshire (n = 2,051; April, July and September 2010; February 2011) TheGraniteStatePoll(GSP)isaregularstatewideopinionsurvey,focusedmainlyonvotingandpoliticaltopics.TheGSPinterviewsnewsamplesofabout500peoplefourtimeseachyear.BeginninginApril2010,theGSPincludedourclimatechangequestions.Becausedifferencesamongthethree2010pollswerenotstatisticallysignificant,theyarecombinedforFigures1and3.Figure7showssignsofchangeintheFebruary2011poll.

Appalachia (n = 1,020; late November 2010 through early January 2011)FollowinguponaCommunityandEnvironmentinRuralAmerica(CERA)surveyconductedin2007,weinterviewednewsamplesofresidentsinHarlanandLetcherCountiesintheAp-palachianregionofKentucky.

Gulf Coast (n = 2,023; late July through September 2010)ShortlyaftertheGulfofMexicooilspill,wecarriedoutaCERAsurveyofcoastalresidentsinBay,FranklinandGulfCounties,Florida;andinPlaqueminesandTerrebonneParishes,Louisiana.

North Country (n = 1,852; June 2010)AnotherCERAsurveyfocusedonresidentsofnorthernNewEngland:inOxfordCounty,Maine;CoosCounty,NewHamp-shire;andEssexCounty,Vermont.

Olympic Peninsula (n = 1,013; October and November 2010)OnWashingtonstate’sOlympicPeninsula,thisCERAsurveyinterviewedresidentsofClallamandGraysHarborCounties.

Southeast Alaska 1 (n = 509; August 2010)AsapilotstudyforworkinruralAlaska,thissmaller-scaleCERAsurveycontactedpeopleintheKetchikanGatewayBoroughandPrinceofWalesCensusArea.

Southeast Alaska 2 (n = 1,021; November and December 2010)ThisUSDA-supportedCERAsurveyinterviewedresidentsofHaines,Juneau,Sitka,WrangellandYakutatBoroughs,andoftheHoonah-AngoonandPetersburgCensusAreas.

Figure 3: What do you personally believe about climate change? Results from three 2010 New Hampshire surveys

Figure 4: What do you personally believe about climate change? Results from six 2010 CERA surveys

peopleoftenhearabouttheclimate-relatedchangesinseaice,permafrost,erosion,andecosystemstakingplacefarthernorthinAlaska.LowerpercentagesontheGulfCoast,Ap-palachia,ortheSoutheastAlaska1(Ketchikanarea)surveysbelieveinhuman-causedchange.

Figures3and4offersomesupportfortheideathathu-man-causedclimatechangetendstohavemoreacceptanceinsnow-countryareas,wherewinterchangehasbeenmostvisible.5TogetherwithFigures1and2,theyalsoshowacor-relationbetweenregionallevelsofself-assessedunderstand-ingandbeliefinhuman-causedchange.Placeswherehigherproportionssaytheyunderstandtheissuealsotendtohavehigherproportionswhobelievethatclimateischangingasaresultofhumans.Therelationshipbetweenunderstandingandbeliefturnsouttobemorecomplicatedthanasimplecorrelation,however.

C A R S E Y I N S T I T U T E 3

Partisanship,Understanding,andBeliefInrecentyears,theideathathumanactivitiessuchasdefor-estationandfossilfuelburningaremeasurablychangingthecompositionofEarth’satmosphere,withcorrespondingeffectsonclimate,hasexpandedfromascientificresearchtopictobecomeapoliticalwedgeissue.6Partisandivisionsregardingthisissuenowappearasdeepasthoseforhot-button“social”issues.OurNewHampshirepollsfindroughlya50pointgapbetweenthepercentageofRepublicansandDemocratswhobelievethatclimateischangingbecauseofhumanacts.7PartisandivisionsstandoutontheCERAsurveysaswell,wheretheyrangefrom20pointsinAppalachiaor31ontheGulfCoastto52pointsinSoutheastAlaska2andtheOlym-picPeninsula.Independentsalwaysholdamiddlepositionbetweenthepartisanextremes(Figure5).

Figure 5: Percent who believe that climate is changing now, caused mainly by human activities—by political party, on six 2010 CERA surveys

Partisanshipinteractswithself-assessedunderstandinginacomplicatedbutstrikinglyconsistentway,asseenacrossallsixoftheCERAsurveysinFigure6.Forthisgraphic,theDemo-crats,Independents,andRepublicansaresubdividedaccord-ingtowhethertheysaytheyunderstandclimatechangemod-eratelyoragreatdeal(labeled“high”inthefigure),orsaytheyhavelittleornounderstanding(“low”inthefigure).Withineachsmallchart,theDemocrat/high-understandingsubgrouphasthehighestproportionwhopersonallybelieveclimateischangingnowduetohumanactivities.TheRepublican/high-understandingsubgrouphasthelowest.Inotherwords,acrossallofthesesurveys,DemocratsandRepublicanswithhighconfidenceintheirunderstandingalsostandthefarthestapart.Forexample,lookingatOlympicPeninsularespondents

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Figure 6: Percent who believe that climate is changing now, caused mainly by human activities— by political party and by low or high understand-ing, on six 2010 CERA surveys

whosaytheyhavemoderateorgreatunderstanding,weseea59pointgap(19versus78percent)betweenRepublicansandDemocrats.Amongthosewhosaytheyhavelittleornounderstanding,thegapnarrowsto“only”29points(23versus52percent).Theothersurveysshowsimilarpatterns.

Figure7offersadifferentwaytovisualizetherelation-ship.ThisgraphicdisplaysresultsfromfoursuccessiveNewHampshirepolls,includingtheApril,July,andSeptember2010pollsgraphedearlier,alongwithamorerecentpolldoneinFebruary2011.Linestrackthepercentwhobelievethatclimatechangeishappeningnowbecauseofhumanactivities.ThetoplineshowsthispercentageamongDemo-cratswithmoderateorgreatunderstanding.ThebottomlineshowsthepercentageamongRepublicanswithmoderateorgreatunderstanding.TwolinesinbetweentheseextremesshowDemocratsandRepublicanswhohavelittleornounderstanding.

Beliefinhuman-causedclimatechangeremainshigh,be-tween77and86percent,amongDemocratswithmoderateorgreatunderstanding.Beliefremainsconsistentlylow,between23and26percent,amongRepublicanswithmoderateorgreatunderstanding.AmongbothDemocratsandRepublicanswithlittleornounderstanding,however,beliefinclimatechangedroppedontheFebruarypoll.Interviewsforthispollwereconductedduringa10-dayperiodofcoldandsnowyweather,whichperhapsdisproportionatelyaffectedtheviewsofpeoplewithlowunderstanding.Conversely,thosewhofeelbetterinformedmightholdlesschangeableviews.Wewillcontinuetofollowthesefourgroupsonfuturepolls.

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ObservationsMostpeoplegatherinformationaboutclimatechangenotdirectlyfromscientistsbutindirectly,forexamplethroughnewsmedia,politicalactivists,acquaintances,andothernon-sciencesources.Theirunderstandingreflectsnotsimplyscientificknowledge,butrathertheadoptionofviewspro-motedbypoliticaloropinionleaderstheyfollow.Peoplein-creasinglychoosenewssourcesthatmatchtheirownviews.8Moreover,theytendtoselectivelyabsorbinformationevenfromthisbiasedflow,fittingitintotheirpre-existingbeliefs.This“biasedassimilation”hasbeendemonstratedinexperi-mentsthatfindpeoplerejectinformationabouttheexistenceofaproblemiftheyobjecttoitspossiblesolutions.9Unlikethoseexperimentalstudies,however,oursurveyssaidnoth-ingaboutpossiblesolutionsorpoliciesrelatedtoclimatechange.Thedeeplypartisanresponsesneverthelesssuggestthatmanypeoplemadethisassociationthemselves,basingtheirbeliefsaboutscienceandphysicalrealityonwhattheythoughtwouldbethepoliticalimplicationsifhuman-causedclimatechangeweretrue.

Ourquestion’stwoelements(climatechangingnow,ow-ingmainlytohumans)matchthecentralpointofstatementsandreportsfromscienceorganizations,nationalacademies,reviewsofresearchresults,andsurveysofscientists.10Forexample,anopenlettertoCongressfromthepresidentsordirectorsofeighteenscientificorganizations(includingtheAmericanAssociationfortheAdvancementofScience,theAmericanGeophysicalUnion,theAmericanMeteorologi-calSociety,andtheAmericanStatisticalAssociation)notedthat“Observationsthroughouttheworldmakeitclearthatclimatechangeisoccurring,andrigorousscientificresearch

demonstratesthatthegreenhousegasesemittedbyhumanactivitiesaretheprimarydriver.”11Manyscienceorganiza-tionshavemadesimilarstatements,expressingthesameelementsasoursurveyquestion.Althoughthereremainsactivediscussionamongscientistsonmanydetailsaboutthepaceandeffectsofclimatechange,noleadingscienceorga-nizationdisagreesthathumanactivitiesarenowchangingtheEarth’sclimate.12Thestrongscientificagreementonthispointcontrastswiththepartisandisagreementseenonallofoursurveys.

Ifthescientistsareright,evidenceofclimatechangewillbecomemorevisibleanddramaticinthedecadesahead.Arcticseaice,forexample,providesoneclosely-watchedharbingerofplanetarychange.Inits2007reporttheIPCCprojectedthatlate-summerArcticseaicecoulddisappearbeforetheendofthe21stcentury.Sincethatreportwaswritten,steeper-than-expecteddeclineshaveledtosugges-tionsthatsummerseaicemightbelargelygoneby2030,andsomethinkmuchsooner.Wewillfindoutintime—eithertheicewillmelt,oritwon’t.TheArcticOcean,alongwithotheraspectsoftheocean-atmospheresystem,presentsanundeniablephysicalrealitythatcouldbecomemorecentraltothepublicdebate.Inthemeantime,however,publicbe-liefsaboutphysicalrealityremainstrikinglypoliticized.

E N D N O T E S1.L.C.Hamilton,“DoScientistsAgreeAboutClimateChange?PublicPerceptionsFromANewHampshireSur-vey.”NewEnglandIssueBriefno.22(Durham,NH:CarseyInstitute,UniversityofNewHampshire,2010),availableatwww.carseyinstitute.unh.edu/publications/IB_Hamilton_Climate_Survey.pdf.2.TheUNHSurveyCenterconductedalltelephoneinterviews.3.ForanintroductiontotheCERAinitiative,seeL.C.Ham-iltonetal.,“PlaceMatters.ChallengesandOpportunitiesinFourRuralAmerica,”Reports on Rural America,vol.1,no.4(Durham,NH:CarseyInstitute,2008),availableathttp://carseyinstitute.unh.edu/publications/Report_PlaceMatters.pdf.4.L.C.Hamilton,B.D.Keim,andC.P.Wake,“IsNewHampshire’sClimateWarming?”NewEnglandPolicyBriefno.4(Durham,NH:CarseyInstitute,UniversityofNewHampshire,2010),availableatwww.carseyinstitute.unh.edu/publications/IB_Hamilton_Climate_Survey_NH.pdf.5.L.C.HamiltonandB.D.Keim,“RegionalVariationInPerceptionsAboutClimateChange,”International Journal of Climatology, vol.29,no.15(2009):2348–52.6.R.E.DunlapandA.M.McCright,“AWideningGap:RepublicanandDemocraticViewsonClimateChange,”Environment(September/October,2008).

Figure 7: Percent who believe that climate is changing now, caused mainly by human activities, on four New Hampshire surveys (2,051 interviews total)

C A R S E Y I N S T I T U T E 5

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Buildingknowledgeforfamiliesandcommunities

TheCarseyInstituteconductspolicyresearchonvulnerablechildren,youth,andfamiliesandonsustainablecommunitydevelopment.Wegivepolicymakersandpractitionerstimely,independentresourcestoeffectchangeintheircommunities.

ThisworkwassupportedbytheFordFoundation,theW.K.KelloggFoundation,theNeilandLouiseTillotsonFoundationattheNewHampshireCharitableFoundation,theOfficeofRuralDevelopmentintheU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,andtheUniversityofNewHampshireSustainabilityAcademy.

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7.Hamilton,“DoScientistsAgreeAboutClimateChange?”8.M.A.BaumandT.Groeling“NewMediaandthePolar-izationofAmericanPoliticalDiscourse,”Political Communi-cation25(2008):345–65.9.D.M.Kahanetal.“TheSecondNationalRiskandCultureStudy:MakingSenseof—andMakingProgressin—theAmericanCultureWarofFact.”ResearchPaperno.370(GeorgeWashingtonUniversity,2007).10.ForstatementsfromscienceorganizationsseeN.Oresk-es,“TheScientificConsensusonClimateChange,”Science, vol.306,no.5702(2004):1686.Fornationalacademiesofsci-ence,seeG8+5,“G8+5NationalAcademies’JointStatement:ClimateChangeandtheTransformationofEnergyTech-nologiestoaLowCarbonFuture”(NationalAcademiesofBrazil,Canada,China,France,Germany,India,Italy,Japan,Mexico,Russia,SouthAfrica,UKandUSA,2009),avail-ableatwww.nationalacademies.org/includes/G8+5energy-climate09.pdf;andNRC,Advancing the Science of Climate Change(Washington,DC:NationalResearchCounciloftheNationalAcademies,2010).ForoverviewsofresearchseeIPCC,Climate Change 2007—The Physical Science Basis.ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheFourthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2009);andK.Richardson,etal.Synthesis Report from Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions(Denmark:Univer-sityofCopenhagen,2009),availableatwww.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/files/synthesis-report-web.pdf.Forsurveysofscientists,seeP.T.DoranandM.K.Zimmerman,“DirectExaminationoftheScientificConsensusonClimateChange,”EOS, vol.90,no.3(2009):22–23.11.A.I.Leshneretal.“OpenLettertoCongressontheConsensusScientificViewofClimateChange.”Pressrelease(Washington,DC:AmericanAssociationfortheAdvance-mentofScience,2009),availableatwww.aaas.org/news/releases/2009/media/1021climate_letter.pdf.12.Wikipediaprovidesacentralsourcewithreferencestomanysynthesisreports,statementsbyscientificorganiza-tions,surveysofscientists,andreviewsofthesciencelitera-ture:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_cli-mate_change.

A C K N O W L E D G M E N T STheauthorwouldliketothankMilDuncan,CurtGrimm,MeganHenly,DavidMoore,TomSafford,AndrewSmith,andJessicaUlrichattheCarseyInstitutewhohelpedtoconceptualizeandcarryoutthesesurveys,aswellasLaurelLloydEarnshaw,BarbaraRay,andAmySterndalefortheirassistance,comments,andsuggestions.

A B O U T T H E A U T H O RLawrenceC.HamiltonisaprofessorofsociologyattheUni-versityofNewHampshireandaseniorfellowattheCarseyInstitute(lawrence.hamilton@unh.edu).

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