carsten beck - future forum 2013
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www.futureforum.itTRANSCRIPT
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
New ways of learning – new ways of working
Italy
November 2013CIFS, Carsten Beck
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
CIFS
• Founded by Thorkil Kristensen i 1970
• Private non-profit organisation
• Member based:– 50 companies in Europe
• Interdisciplinary think tank (economic and political science, ethnology, sociology, philosophy)
• 15 academic employees • Danish, Norwegian and
Belgian Futures Club• IKEA, ASDA, Delhaize, Coop,
Siemens, Statoil, Pictet, Wal Mart, EU, Governments and regional authorities
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for FremtidsforskningWhy do we need to look for
new ways of learning and working?
•Sense of urgency in Europe•Success is difficult•More changes happening•New technologies and attitudes challenges leaders and institutions
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Why the future?We all face much tougher competition in the
futureGlobal companies 1991-2001 And in 2001-2011
25% best performing companies
8% in ”Top 25%”
17%
25%
50% in ”Bottom 25%”
Source: HBR: The law of averages jan-feb 2013 NB TSR=Total shareholder return
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
You can´t ask people about radical innovation regarding their worklife
”If I asked people what they wanted, I would have made
a faster horse”Henry Ford
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Individualization
Globalization
Increasing Wealth
Commercialization
Digitalization
IT society
Network organization
Knowledge society
Acclerating Pace of change
24-hour society
Immaterialism
Global Warming
(Environmental Challenges)
Health & Wellness
MEGATRENDSDrivers for Change
Population development
(Aging)
Change conditions:Families
EmployeesBusinessSociety
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Macroperspectives
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Very heterogeneous picture of competitiveness in Europe
http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/6th_report/rci_2013_report_final.pdf
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Reshoring to EuropeExperiences from german companies:
1. Flexibility2. Quality3. Cost of coordinating global value
chains4. Infrastructure5. Lack of competence and talents
Workforce:
1. More automatization and hence more complex work tasks
2. More agile 3. More focus on learning 4. Solving the knowledge transfer
problem
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Source: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Individual perspectives
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The empowered generation
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Digitalisation
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
McKinsey:Turning Buzz into Gold, May 2012
Social Media has grown faster than any other Media technology
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Constant Everyday Use – A Global Trend
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
In bed Earlymorning
Commuting Latemorning
Duringlunch
Earlyafternoon
Lateafternoon
Earlyevening
Duringdinner
Lateevening
In bed
Percentage of smartphone non-voice usage: Global
Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab Analytical Platform 2012 Base: Android/iPhone smartphone users in 57 countries
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Real time• Impatience
• Response: here and now
• No bad excuses
• The Boss= The person or network that makes the fastest decisions
"Twitter has done a great job of real-time search. I think we’ve done a relatively poor job of... things that work on a per-second basis. I’ve been telling our search teams for some time, you need results for every second. They laugh at me. I don’t think they understand this. I think we will do a better job of some of these things now".
Source: Larry Page (Google founder) in Wired Magazine
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Education and business perspectives
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Individualized learning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Pitfalls
• Virtual academies with shady reputations
• Can digital learning environments grade and appreciate imagination and creativity?
• Student data: Privacy issues
• Role of teachers – teacher/student relations might be more superficial?
Based on Diane Ravitch. New York University
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
MIT Future of Learning program study
1. Self-learning2. Horizontal
structures 3. From presumed
authority to collective credibility
4. De-centered pedagogy
5. Networked learning
6. Open source education7. Learning as
connectivity and interactivity
8. Lifelong learning9. Learning institutions
are mobilizing networks
10.Flexible scalability and simulation
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The educational institutions• Universities focusing more on
developing talent that have skills that are actually needed in the market– Focus on the needs of the private
sector– STEM (Science, Technology,
Engineering, Math)– More in depth integration of theory
and real life• Schools working together with
companies on internal training programs
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The next step in HR
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Kilde: BCG
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The Big FiveFive trends that will transform your future workforce.
1. Generation Y and Z
– Migration from East Europe (and West)
2. Social capital and networks
– Long term trend: more responsibility is delegated
3. Global mobility and value chains
4. Technological paradigm changes
– Social media and screens
5. Co-creation
– Companies in the future will ask all their employees to be customer focused and innvative
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The big excuse
”We are to busy right now to care about the future!”
Solution: Ambidexterity
“Organizational ambidexterity refers to an organization’s ability to be efficient in its management of today’s business and also adaptable for coping with
tomorrow’s changing demand. Just as being ambidextrous means being able to use both the left and
right hand equally, organizational ambidexterity requires the organizations to use both exploration and
exploitation techniques to be successful.”
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Recommendations to companies• More focus on competence development
– Clear and future oriented talentmanagement-strategy
– More entry level jobs – ”Free 1”– ”Company universities”– Cooperation with other companies inside or
outside your sector• ”Teach-able fit” approach – hire employees with
competences that are not a perfect fit today but will be a perfect future fit. Requires capability to learn!
• Job security – but adjustable. Lower working hours and pay – if required
• Compensation and benefits should be OK• ”Talent on demand”: how can you get acces to
competences outside your company? And on a flexible basis?
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Workshop
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Constant Everyday Use – A Global Trend
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
In bed Earlymorning
Commuting Latemorning
Duringlunch
Earlyafternoon
Lateafternoon
Earlyevening
Duringdinner
Lateevening
In bed
Percentage of smartphone non-voice usage: Global
Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab Analytical Platform 2012 Base: Android/iPhone smartphone users in 57 countries
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Generation Y and Z• Generation Y, “The
Millennials”: Born ca. 1980-1995
• Generation Z, “The iGeneration”: Born ca. 1995-present
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The social media generation
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The global generation
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The creative generation
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The Herostratic generation
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The spoiled generation?
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The anarchist generation
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Generation Y: The power generation?
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Interactivity
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Integration with internet data
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Distance learning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Flip homework / schoolwork
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Individualized learning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Gamification
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Recognize non-standard experience
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The power of self-learning
www.tinyurl.dk/38509
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
“We left the boxes in the village. Closed. Taped shut. No instruction, no human being. I thought, the kids will play with the boxes! Within four minutes, one kid not only opened the box, but found the on/off switch. He'd never seen an on/off switch. He powered it up. Within five days, they were using 47 apps per child per day. Within two weeks, they were singing ABC songs [in English] in the village. And within five months, they had hacked Android. Some idiot in our organization or in the Media Lab had disabled the camera! And they figured out it had a camera, and they hacked Android.”
– Nicholas Negroponte, OLPC
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Privacy
• The Good:– ”Individualized solutions”
• The Bad:– ”IKEA knows to much about
me”• The Evil:
– ”Theft of identities”
Getty Images
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
AnarconomyHow people interact with IKEA
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Networks
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
MIT Future of Learning program study
1. Self-learning2. Horizontal
structures 3. From presumed
authority to collective credibility
4. De-centered pedagogy
5. Networked learning
6. Open source education7. Learning as
connectivity and interactivity
8. Lifelong learning9. Learning institutions
are mobilizing networks
10.Flexible scalability and simulation
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The educational institutions• Universities focusing more on
developing talent that have skills that are actually needed in the market– Focus on the needs of the private
sector– STEM (Science, Technology,
Engineering, Math)– More in depth integration of theory
and real life• Schools working together with
companies on internal training programs
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Pitfalls
• Virtual academies with shady reputations
• Can digital learnings environments grade and appreciate imagination and creativity?
• Student data: privacy issues
• Role of teachers – teacher/student relations might be more superficial?
Based on Diane Ravitch. New York University
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Major challenge
• Digitalization of educational systems has huge potential. But what are the challenges?– Attitudes and values?– Technological infrastructure?– Internal conflicts in organisations?– Little interest in the future and future digital
solutions?– Economy?– Silos?
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Major challenge
• New generations will have new ways of working. How will managers and organiszations cope with this?– Powerdistance– Collaboration– Values and beliefs– Individualization – Bring Your Own Device
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Major challenge
• The balance between the physical and digital learning environment. CIFS believes in an in-line-educational system. How will this affect the organisations of schools and universities?