carsten rolle, executive director wec germany
DESCRIPTION
Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - TWITTER #NRGstrategyTRANSCRIPT
The energy transition in Europa: different
pathways, same destination?
29.05.2013
The German government has set different targets to shift the whole
energy system to amore sustainable one
Selected Energiewende targets
2
Share of
renewables in
gross energy
consumption
(%)
Reduction of
greenhouse
gas emissions
(%)
Share of
renewables in
gross
electricity
consumption
(%)
Reduction of
primary energy
consumption
vs. 2008 (%)
Reduction of
electricity
consumption
vs. 2008 (%)
Reduction of
energy
consumption
for
transportation
vs. 2005 (%)
German Energiewende / Energy Market / Facts & Figures
The Nuclear Phaseout
3
Development of installed capacity of nuclear power in Germany (in MW)
Source: BDEW
7% of electricity generation
(2010)
23%
of ele
ctr
icity g
enera
tion
(2010)
Future necessary baseload yet
unclear
Current market environment
discourages investment in
conventional generation
Regional perspective to the
nuclear phaseout. Southern-
Germany especially affected
„Baseload capacity will need
to be replaced
GERMAN ENERGY POLICY –
A BLUEPRINT FOR THE WORLD?
März 2013 4
0% (0%)
56%(65%)
44% (35%)
Do you expect that your country copycats parts of the German energy policy approach?
Yes, the full concept could be copied Parts could be copied No, nothing could be copied
Weltenergierat - Deutschland Weltenergierat - Deutschland In Klammern Ergebnisse für 2011
GERMAN ENERGY POLICY –
A BLUEPRINT FOR THE WORLD?
März 2013 5
24% (42%)
76% (58%)
In your country, are the technical and economic conditions given to follow the German policy path?
yes no
Weltenergierat - Deutschland Weltenergierat - Deutschland In Klammern Ergebnisse für 2011
GERMAN ENERGY POLICY –
A BLUEPRINT FOR THE WORLD?
März 2013 6
0% (0%)
16% (27%)
72% (37%)
12% (36%)
How do you assess the feasibility of the German goals?
…most likely implementes fully and without delay …most likely implemented fully but with delay
…most likely implemented partly and with delay …most likely not feasible at all
Weltenergierat - Deutschland In Klammern Ergebnisse für 2011 Weltenergierat - Deutschland
GERMAN ENERGY POLICY –
A BLUEPRINT FOR THE WORLD?
März 2013 7
16% (10%)
60% (75%)
24% (15%)
What impact do you expect for the economic power of Germany due to the current energy policy?
Short-/medium term (until 2020)
Strengthening of the economic power
Weakening of the economic power
no impact
Weltenergierat - Deutschland Weltenergierat - Deutschland In Klammern Ergebnisse für 2011
Current status of Energiewende: mixed picture
BDI Energiewende navigator 2012 – results at a
glance
8
Economic Feasibility
46 % 58 %
2010 2011
Public Acceptance
N. a. 76 %
2010 2011
Innovation
79 % 86 %
2010 2011
Impact on climate and
environment
87 % 96 %
2010 2011
Good progress due to rapid extension of renewable generation capacities
Share of renewables in primary energy and electricity consumption with complete target
achievement
Transportation sector behind expectations
Economic feasibility critical due to increasing electricity prices
Electricity prices on high levels compared to other countries
Constant energy consumption despite GDP growth
Sufficient generation capacities, but grid extension behind schedule
Generation capacities currently covering demand (only regional need for action
Network capacities still sufficient, but extension lagging behind
Public acceptance high in general, but low when increasing cost come into play
Broad support in population; cost increase regarded as critical issue
Industry expecting higher cost; supply security regarded uncritical
R&D expenditures in field of energy remaining on low levels
Public environment-related R&D expenditures in 2010 less than in 2008
Increasing share of "Green Energy Patents"
Supply Security
116 % 91 %
2010 2011
Target achieved (10% tolerance) 89% to 75% target achievement Less than 75% target achievement
BDI "Energiewende-Navigator" – outcomes & results « Energiewende-Navigator » - the BDI’s own monitoring tool
9
Frage Germans in general show high support for the „Energiewende“ but don‘t support higher prices
Implementing the Energiewende requires investments of ~ €
200 b into the German electricity sector until 2030 Forecast of cumulated necessary investments into German electricity system (target
scenario)
10
Summe
bis 2050
~ 669
~ 200 for
Energiewende
implementation
Electricity
generation Storage Grid Consumption
Total until
2030
Total until
2050
Cumulated investments
billion Euros
Maintenance
Expansion
transmission grid
Expansion distribution grid
Wind - offshore
Wind - onshore
PV
Other renewables
~77
~64
~58
~18
Conventional ~34
Source: BCG
The Energiewende means worldwide revenue potentials with
end products of more than € 70 b p.a. for German enterprises
in 2020 Forecast of revenue potentials, fuel imports and CO2 emissions
11
Source: BCG
On the other hand unit cost of electricity will rise by 15 – 35% compared
to continuing the current system until 2030
Forecast of unit cost development of electricity
12
Asset annuity 2010
Investments renewables
Investments conventional
Investments storage
Investments grid/ smart meter
Imports
O&M
CO2 (70 €/t in 2050)
Fuel cost
Additional fuel cost
Source: BCG
Electricity and gas prices evolve into locational disadvantages in
Germany and over Europe
Industry prices electricity and gas – Germany vs. USA
13
102
2030
0
50
100
150
Gas cost (industry)/electricity cost (industry)
(in €/MWhth/€/MWhel w/o tax & dues)
90 96
110
119 123
2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000
100
65
52
21
98
61
50
16
90
44
48
16
Industry prices electricity and gas – Germany vs. USA
Shale gas revolution in US: gas price drop
for industry ~ 40 % between 2008 and 2010
Dampening affetcs on US electricity prices
Low European shale gas potentials; no
significant US LNG exports before 2020
No real potential for price reductions of gas
and electricity in Europe until 2020
US advantage (compared to Europe) in
terms of energy cost at least until 2020
Projection
US Gas5
Electricity Germany - Max1
Gas Germany3
US electricity4
1. Entwicklung basierend auf Trendstudie 2030+ Szenario "Zielerreichung Klimaschutz" Preispfad B, ohne Steuern und Abgaben 2. Entwicklung basierend auf Trendstudie 2030+ Szenario ""Fiktives fossiles System" Preispfad A ohne Steuern und Abgaben 3. Annahmen Gaspreisentwicklung basieren auf Trendstudie 2030+ Preispfad A, ohne Steuern und Abgaben 4. Preise Industriestrom, ohne Steuern und Abgaben (EIA) 5. Preise Industriegas, ohne Steuern und Abgaben (EIA) Quelle: Eurostat; EIA; BCG
Electricity Germany - Min2
In the case of no further grid expansion TSOs will have to shutdown
renewables from 2016 onwards to a significant degree
Overview of renewable shutdowns (in TWh) subject to lacking grid expansion
14
Per region („Startnetz“ 2022)
today‘s grid
„Ergebnisnetz
NEP“
„Startnetz
NEP“
Over time per grid szenario
Expanding the grid is a crucial aspect for implementing the Energiewende.
Source: EWI
More than one third of additional renewable generation in 2022 will only contribute to
the increase of German electricity export surplus
Overview: selected expected electricity flows in 2022 (target scenario)
15
• Generation and load in
Germany will diverge
• Hours of high feeding-in of
renewables and low demand
create market incentives to
export electricity abroad
• In 2022 the electricity generated
from renewables can only be
integrated into the German
electricity market by about two
third
The Energiewende is a European challenge and therefore has to be approached
on the European level.
Net replacement of conventionally
generated electricity
Source: EWI
The expansion of renewable energies will be largely based on volatile
energy sources
Forecast of installed capacity of renewable energy
16
maximum
annual load
2011
minimum
annual load
2011 PV
Wind
Other
renewables
Source: Prognos
Installed capacities, guarantied capacity and load (2023)
17 Quelle: Szenario B aus dem Szenariorahmen für den
NEP Strom 2013, dena Netzstudie I
Currently loads in Germany exhibit rather moderate fluctuations…
Residual load curve 2012 (load minus renewable feed-in) Germany
18
Source: Prognos
Assumption: must-run-capacity: 20 GW
… whereas volatility will be much higher in 2030 including negative
values
Residual load curve 2030 (load minus renewable feed-in) Germany
19
Source: Prognos
Assumption: must-run-capacity: 10 GW
Current European energy and climate policy overemphasizes the objective of
environmental sustainability which leads to challenges
Objective overview of European energy and climate policy
20
Source: BE „Energy & Climate“ 2030, Issue Team1