carving out his place in history · 2016-05-03 · carving out his place in history charly...

Carving out his plaCe in history

Charly salonius-pasternak Fiia BrieFing paper 121 • January 2013

U L KO P O L I I T T I N EN INS T I T U U T T I

U T R I K E S P O L I T I S K A INS T I T U T E T

THE F I N N I S H I N S T I T U T E OF I N T E R N AT I O N A L AFFA IR S

121

What Challenges Will BaraCk oBama

taCkle in his seCond term?

• Ashebeginshissecondterm,PresidentBarackObama’splaceinhistoryisassured.AsuccessfulsecondtermwouldsethimonthepathtobecomingoneofthemosthighlyregardedpresidentsinUShistory.

• DomesticpoliticswillcontinuetobeObama’sfocusduringhissecondterm.Hewilloverseetheimplementationofhissignaturefirst-termaccomplishments,andseekadditionalpolicychangesinhowtheUSapproachesimmigrationandclimatechange.

• PresidentObama’ssecond-termforeignpolicyteamwillcontinuethePivottoAsia,whilerefiningtheemergingObamaDoctrine.Theuseofdrones,SpecialForcesandcyberweaponswillcontinue,aslower-costtoolstodirectlyaddressthreatstoUSnationalsecurity.

• Europemusttakefarmoreresponsibilityforitsdefenceandregionalsecurity,foritsrelationshipwithneighboursintheeastandthesouth,andtheEUshouldstrivetoachieveaTransatlanticFreeTradeArea,whilePresidentObamaremainsinoffice.

Carving out his plaCe in history

Fiia Briefing paper 121

January 2013

What Challenges Will BaraCk oBama taCkle in his seCond term?

global security research programme

the Finnish institute of international affairs

U L KO P O L I I T T I N EN INS T I T U U T T I

U T R I K E S P O L I T I S K A INS T I T U T E T

THE F I N N I S H I N S T I T U T E OF I N T E R N AT I O N A L AFFA IR S

Charly salonius-pasternak

researcher


the Finnish institute oF international aFFairs 3

AsPresidentBarackObama steps into theWhiteHouse for a second four-year term, he has theopportunitytogofrombeingagoodpresidenttooneofthemosthighlyregardedpresidentstheUShasseen–ofmetaphoricallybecominganewfaceonMtRushmore.1Toaccomplishthisamidanincreas-ingly polarized political atmosphere, PresidentObamahasto:(1)overseethesuccessfulimplemen-tationoffirst-termdomesticachievements,(2)craftadditionalsignificantdomesticpolicywins,while(3)settingUSforeignpolicyonamoresustainablecourse for future generations.These three broadtasksarebrieflyconsideredbelow.

Overseeing the implementation of

first-term achievements in domestic policy

Perhaps themostunderappreciated achievementofthefirstObamaadministrationwastheactionittooktogreatlylimittheeffectsofthe‘greatreces-sion’thatstartedwiththenearcollapseofthefinan-cialsectorintheautumnof2008.Althoughderidedbypoliticalopponentsandmisunderstoodbyvot-ers,thestimulus(formallyAmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentAct)wasasuccesswhichcontinuestochangetheUnitedStates.Italsostoppedtherapidlymountingjoblossesassoonasitwasenacted,butasTime’sseniornationalcorrespondentMichaelGrun-waldhassaid,“thestimuluswasa2.5million-jobsolutiontoan8million-jobproblem.”2Combinedwith the auto-industry bailout and Wall Streetreform, a fair amountof creditmust be given totheObamaadministrationforsavingtheAmericaneconomyfromaworsefate.Provingahistoriccoun-terfactualisnotpossible,butthecontinualeffortsbytheRepublicanPartytosabotagetheadministra-tion’seffortstoimprovetheeconomy–forpurelyelectoral purposes – suggest that even Obama’s

1 MtRushmoreislocatedinSouthDakota,andhadduringthe

1930sengravedintoitsgranitefacethebustsoffourdomi-

nantUSPresidents:GeorgeWashington,ThomasJefferson,

AbrahamLincolnandTheodoreRoosevelt.FranklinDelano

Roosevelt(FDR),USPresidentfrom1933to1945,shouldalso

symbolicallyoccupyaspaceonMtRushmore.

2 “TheNewNewDeal”byDavidPlotz,August14,2012.Avail-

ableathttp://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/

interrogation/2012/08/the_new_new_deal_a_book_argues_

that_president_obama_s_stimulus_has_been_an_astonish-

ing_success.html

opponentsknewtheadministration’seffortswerehavingapositiveeffectontheeconomy.

The most controversial first-term achievementwhich Obamamust ensure is thoroughly imple-mentedduringhis second term is theAffordableCareAct (ACA).TheActmakespossible themostsignificant structural healthcare improvementsAmericanshaveseensincethecreationofMedicareandMedicaidinthe1960s.Improvingcare,reducingthepowerofinsurancecompanies,andextendingcoverage to tens ofmillions of Americans whilereducing costs, is a monumental achievement.Obama’sprimarydomestictaskduringhissecondtermmustbetoensurethat thechangesbecomeirreversible;Republicanswillfightthisatbothfed-eralandstatelevels,throughbothlegislativeandexecutivemeasures.

Inwhatmaybeseenasakeyperiodinthedomi-nantcivilrightsstruggleof theearly21stcentury,theObamaadministrationworkedtoachievesig-nificantimprovementsinlesbian,gay,bisexualandtransgender(LGBT)rights.Thesechangesguaran-teedmillionsofLGBTAmericansalmostequalstatusascitizens,intheeyesofthecourts,employersandthemilitary.Theadministration’sLGBTeffortswerefeaturedinUSforeignpolicyandwerefrequentlyused by activists as an example that the UnitedStateswasnotonlypreachingtoothersabouttheneedforreform,butalsopractisingit.

Obama’s second-term domestic priorities

Having won re-election with a voter coalitionthatreflectsthechangingdemographicsoftheUS,PresidentObamaisdeterminedtofocusondomesticissuesduringhissecondterm–doingnation-build-ingathome,tousehisownwords.Ontheagendaareatleasttwolargeissues:immigrationreformandaddressingclimatechange.ClosingtheGuantanamoBayprisonmaybeseenbysomeasadomesticmoralissue,butfortheObamaadministrationitwillrankasasecond-tierissue,muchlikeeffectiveguncon-trollegislation.

ProgressinanyoftheseistosomedegreedependentonRepublicanwillingnesstoworkwithObamaandotherDemocrats.IngeneralthereislittletosuggestthattheRepublicanPartywouldnotcontinuethekindoffierceobstructionistpoliticsithasconvinced


itselfhavebeensuccessfulsincethemid-termelec-tions in2010. Infact, it is likelythatwithaneyetowardsthe2014mid-termelections,theRepub-licanPartywilleschewalleffortsatimprovingandgoverning the country, and focus on mountingbothpersonalandspuriousattacksagainstpoliciesbroughtforthbytheWhiteHouseandDemocratsinCongress.

Perhaps the most likely area where Obama canexpectbipartisanimpulsesfromCongressisimmi-grationreform.ThecorecomponentofreformwouldbetocreateapathtocitizenshipforthemillionsofillegalimmigrantscurrentlyworkingandlivingintheUnitedStates. Inadditiontothis,anyreformis likely to include changed visa regulations andtougherenforcementprovisions.Recently,reformhasprimarilybeenopposedbytheGOPbecauseitwasseenasprovidingDemocratswithmillionsofpotentialnewvoters.Becauseofdevelopmentsinnationaldemographics andObama’s overwhelm-ingvictorymarginamongLatinovoters, theGOPhasrecognizedtheneedtoattractLatinovoterstoits sidebymoderating its stanceon immigration.BecauseofthisandObama’semphasisonit,thereisastronglikelihoodthatinhissecondtermPresidentObamawillachievethepassageofsomethingliketheDream Act,pavingthewayforamorehumaneandrationalapproachtointegratingtheovertenmillionillegalimmigrantsintoAmericansociety.

Climate changemitigation and efforts to changecourse from the current unsustainable ecologi-callydestructivepathwereimportantforPresidentObamaduringhisfirstterm.Intheeyesofmany,Obama’saccomplishmentsseemminor.However,thedoublingfuelefficiencystandardsforcarsandearmarkingoverninetybilliondollarsofstimulusmoney forcleanenergyefforts, includingenergyefficiency, smart grid development, renewableenergytechnology,advancedbiofuelsandsoforth,continuetohaveanimpact,andlaythegroundworkforamoreefficientandenvironmentallysoundUS.

AkeyissueishowObamawillcombineeffortstolimit climate change with a focus on achievinggreaterenergyindependence.WhenObamamadeincreased energy independence a theme for his2008 campaign, it is unlikely that he couldhaveforeseenthetremendouschangesintheUSenergyproductionmixthatoccurredduringhisfirstterm.Thedevelopment andharvestingof shalegashas

triggeredamajor shift inenergyproductionanddependencedynamics.Thepercentageofelectric-ity produced through gas has, according to theUSEnergyInformationAdministration,increasedfrom24%in2010to31%in2012,whileonly36%ofelectricityusedin2012wasproducedusingcoal(comparedto45%in2010).AccordingtoastudybyDowChemicals, approximately90billiondol-larsofinvestmentshavereturnedtotheUSduetotheabundantavailabilityofcheapgas.ItisunclearhowObamaintendstotakeadvantageofpredictedcompleteUSenergyindependenceandindepend-ence fromoil fromtheMiddleEastbytheendofhissecondterm.Thispresentshimwitharangeofopportunitiesandchallenges,includinghowtocon-tinuetosupportrenewableenvironmentallysoundenergyproductionwhenenergypricesremainlow.

IfObama can oversee the thorough implementa-tionofACA, furtherbuttressLGBT rights, secureacomprehensiveagreementonimmigration,andgain some tractionon climate changemitigationefforts,hisdomesticachievementscouldinmoderntimesonlybecomparedtothoseofFranklinDelanoRoosevelt(FDR).Toachievethis,ObamamustworkwithandgainsupportfromsomemembersoftheRepublicanParty,butitwillalsorequirejettison-ingthealmostreflexivebipartisanshipheexhibitedduringhisfirstmandateperiod.LikeFDR,Obamaalso continues to face a range of foreign policychallenges.WhileObamaisunlikelytooverseethehistoricchangesinglobalgovernancethatemergedoutofthewreckageoftheSecondWorldWar,theemergenceofanObama DoctrineandstrengthenedPivot to AsiawillensurethathealsomakeshismarkonUSforeignpolicyhistory.

The Obama Doctrine and Pivot to Asia –

fundamental pillars of Obama’s foreign policy

Intherealmofforeignpolicy,ObamahaslaidthegroundworkforanewUSapproachtotherestoftheworld.PresidentObama’ssecond-termforeignpolicy teamwill build on this, and continue thePivot to Asia,whilerefiningtheemergingObama Doctrine.The use of drones, Special Forces andcyberweaponswillcontinueaslowercosttoolstodirectlyaddressthreatstoUSnationalsecurity.

UndertheemergingObama Doctrine,theadmin-istration is ready to unilaterally use large-scale


militaryforceonlyifnationalsecurityisthreatened.TheraidintoPakistantoeliminateOsamabinLadenisillustrativeofthis.Insituationswherenationalsecurityisnotthreatenedorothershavefarmorecentralinterests,ObamaisreadytocontributeUScapabilities,butpartnersareexpectedtotaketheleadandcontributesignificantly.TheUSapproachtoLibyainautumn2011isanexampleofthis:bothArabandEuropeancountrieswereexpectedtotakethelead,whiletheUSprovidedindispensablelogis-ticalandoperationalsupport.SomehavedescribedthisastheUSwithdrawingfromthegloballeader-shiproleithashadfordecades,butinincreasinglybudgetconsciousWashington it issimplyseenasmakingitcleartoothersthatthetimeforfreeridingisover.InObamatheUnitedStateshasapresidentwhorecognizesthelimitsofAmericanpower,whileappreciatingtheindispensablenatureoftheUSinglobalaffairs.Implicitinthisisanacceptancethatifothersleadanendeavour,theyareunlikelytodosobasedonstrategiesandapproachesdevelopedinWashington;achieving70%ofitsgoalsinapar-ticularsituationwithoutleadingandwithlimitedmilitaryormonetarycontributionsisseenasagooddealintheWhiteHouse.

ThesecondmajorpillarofthefirstObamaadmin-istration foreignpolicywas thePivot to Asia. InEuropethishasbeenunfairlyseenastheabandon-mentofanoldally,whentheUSgoalinthewordsofSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton is rather“tobuildawebofpartnershipsandinstitutionsacrossthePacificthatisasdurableandasconsistentwithAmericaninterestsandvaluesasthewebwehavebuiltacrosstheAtlantic”.3TheUSwillcontinuetoupholditsresponsibilitiestowardsitsNATOalliesinEurope,butbecauseanever-largerproportionofUSforeignandsecuritypolicyattentionwillbefocusedonAsia(includingtheIndianOceanregion),Europewillneedtoassumefarmoreresponsibilityforitsowndefence.Thestrong interest inconcludingatrans-AtlanticfreetradeareabetweentheUSandtheEUshouldputtorestanyfearsofUSabandon-ment of Europe; to emphasize its relevance andproducetangibleeconomicbenefitsforEuropeans,theEUwoulddowelltofocuseffortsonconcluding

3 HillaryClinton’sfullarticleAmerica’sPacificCenturyis

availableinForeign Policyathttp://www.foreignpolicy.

com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century

such an agreement during the second Obamaadministration.

During Obama’s first term, the implementationoftheObamadoctrinewasnotablydependentontheuseoftwonewtools4,andtheresurrectionofabalanceddiplomaticapproachtobuildingrelation-shipsandalliances.OneofthenewtoolswhichhasbeencentraltoenablingObama’sdesirefora‘lightfootprint’ is the use of drones (UAVs) to conductextrajudicialstrikesandkillhundredsofindividualsin(atleast)Pakistan,Yemen,andSomalia.Theuseofthesestrikeshasbeenjustifiedbytheadministra-tionashavingeffectivelydecimatedtheupperandmiddleranksofalQaeda,therebypreventingnewterroriststrikesagainstAmericans–acorenationalsecurityinterest.Offarmorelong-termimportanceis the precedent the use of drones has set, bothwithin the frameworkofUS foreignandsecuritypolicy,andmoregloballyasothernationsdevelopstrike-capabledrones.WiththeselectionofJohnBrennan,theprimaryarchitectofObama’sdronestrategy, toheadtheCentral IntelligenceAgency(CIA), the questions relating to the legal, practi-cal,ethicalandpoliticalconsequencesoftheuseofdroneswillcontinuetoberelevantthroughoutthesecondObamaadministration.

The second tool which the administration hasincreasinglyreliedoniscyberweapons,especiallyagainstIran,andpossiblyotherstates.Forposter-ity, whether Iran ultimately develops a nuclearweaponornot,islessimportantthanthefactthattheObamaadministrationhaspubliclyopenedPan-dora’sbox–togetherwithIsraelandChinaignitingaveritablecyberarmsrace.TocombatespeciallyactiveChinesecyberespionageefforts,ObamahasalsomadeitclearthattheUnitedStatesisbothinpossessionofadvancedcybercapabilitiesandwill-ingtousethem.5

4 DavidE.Sanger’sbookConfront and Concealprovidesthe

mostauthoritativepublicaccountoftheObamaadministra-

tion’suseofbothdronesandcyberweapons,andinformsthe

author’sunderstandingofthesubject.

5 TherecentBriefingPaper“Transatlanticcybersecurity:The

onlywinningmoveistoplaywithothers”publishedbythe

FinnishInstituteofInternationalAffairsprovidesanover-

viewofthecentralissueswhichtheUSiscurrentlywrestling

withwhenitcomestocybersecurity.Itisavailableathttp://

www.fiia.fi/en/publication/303/


What limited the foreign policy achievements ofObama’s first administrationwas an inability tofocusonafewkeyissues,largelyduetoaveritabletsunamiofmajorforeignpolicyeventswithglobalimplications.Thiswas compounded byObama’sinitialmisunderstandingofthedynamicsinvolvedand the fearof abandonmentpotential allies felt,whenthePresidentofferedthehandoffriendshipto all comers, some ofwhom interpreted it as asignofweakness.Startingin2011,theWhiteHousereorienteditselfinthisregard,andthereorientationislikelytocontinueintothesecondterm.

Obama’s second-term foreign policy –

managing risk and preparing for the future

DuringhissecondadministrationObamaislikelytocontinuetofocusondomesticaffairs.ForeignpolicyinObama’ssecondtermwillfocusonmanagingriskandpreparing for the future.The secondObamaadministrationacutelybelievesthatnation-buildingathomeisaprerequisitefortheUnitedStatestobeabletobuildrelationshipsandcoalitionsthatcanpositivelyinfluenceworldaffairsinthe21stcentury–abetterforeignpolicywillfollowonfromadomes-ticallystrongerUnitedStates.

Concretely, the most important thing PresidentObamacandoistofurtherinstitutionalizetheUS-Chinarelationship.Therelationshipwillcontinuetoevolve,withbothsidesrecognizingtheneedforrestraint butwith competition intensifying.Thebiannualeconomicandsecuritydialoguesduringwhichseniorleadersfrombothcountriesmeetwitheachotherisagoodstartbutmoreeffortisneeded,preferablyinaregionalcontext.TheUnitedStateswillalsocontinuetodeepenpolitical,economicandmilitarycooperationwithnumerousAsianstates,engagingeachcountryonitsterms,withmilitaryengagement rarelybeing the initialprimaryfieldofcooperation.Obamamustensurethatthesoft-containmentapproachaimedatChinastrikesabal-ancebetweengentlyencouragingpositivebehaviourby China in its approach to international affairs,whilereassuringpartnersandalliesthattheUnitedStateswillstandfirminthefaceofovertChineseaggression.

Balancingbetween issues-basedengagementandreassuringalliesisalsosomethingtheUnitedStateswill have to consider when dealing with Russia.

DuringthefirstObamaadministration,NATOcon-tingencyplanswereextendedtocovernewmemberstates,andarangeofexerciseswereheldtoreassuremembersoftheAlliance’scommondefencecapa-bilities.Atthesametime,Obamasoughttoleada‘reset’ofUS relationswithRussia,withgenerallypositivebutmixedresults:theNewSTARTTreaty,supportingUSandNATOoperationsinAfghanistan,andenablingstrongpressureonIranarethreesuc-cessful areas ofmutual interest and cooperation.Relationsarelikelytoebbandflow,withtensetimestobeexpectedfollowingincrementalimprovementsinandnewdeploymentsoftheUS-NATOBallisticMissileDefencesystem.DuringthesecondObamaterm, Russiawill not be seen as a significantUSpriority,thoughcooperationonindividualissuesofmutualinterestwillcontinue.Overall,WashingtonincreasinglywantstoseeEuropetakingtheleadincoaxingRussiaintoadenserwebofeconomicandpoliticalcooperation,withWashingtonprovidingsupportasneeded.

InthebroaderMiddleEast,ObamawillfocusonthewithdrawalfromAfghanistanandcontributingtothesolutionofvariousregionalproblems.Whenhecametopower,ObamaviewedAfghanistanas‘thegoodwar’,oneworthinvestingadditionalresourcesin. By early 2013 the situation in Afghanistanremainsprecariousandsupport intheUS fortheeffortinAfghanistanisminimal,morethansixtypercentofAmericanssayUStroopsshouldberemovedfromAfghanistanassoonaspossible.6AlthoughtheadministrationhasflaggedthepossibilityofleavingnoAmericansinAfghanistanaftertheendof2014,it is highly likely that a few thousand Americansoldierswillremaininthecountryafter2014;somewithcounter-terrormissionsandsomeasapartoftheNATO-ledpost-ISAFtrainingoperation.

WhileIraniannuclearweaponsambitionsarelikelytodominateObama’sagendainitially,heislikelytofocusonbuildingworkingrelationshipswiththenew leadersemergingoutof themyriadpoliticalandsocialrevolutionsintheMiddleEast,whilepro-vidingsupportforthedevelopmentofdemocraticinstitutionsintheregion.Ashispredecessorshave

6 “MajoritySupportQuickTroopWithdrawalfromAfghan-

istan”,PEWResearchCenter,October2012.Availableat

http://www.pewresearch.org/daily-number/majority-sup-

port-quick-troop-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/


donebeforehim,Obama is also likely to expendsome effort to broker further peace agreementsbetween Israel and itsneighbours (includingPal-estinians),whileeffortsaimedatIrancouldresultinamilitarystrikeormore likelyashift towardscontainmentofanuclear-armedIran.

Ultimately,underObama’ssecondadministrationtheUSwillremaingloballyactiveandengaged,butthedayswhen theUSpaid for theupkeepof theglobalcommonsorsinglehandedlytriedtocontainemergingcrisesisover.TheselectionofJohnKerryasSecretaryofStateandChuckHagelasSecretaryofDefense suggests thatObamawantsAmericanforeignandsecuritypolicytobecapable,activebutrestrained.Structurally,thiswillbeseenthrougharebalancingofthePentagonbudget,emphasizinga‘lightfootprint’approachinmilitaryengagement(training and cooperation, not large permanentbases)andanincreasedpolitical,economicanddip-lomaticfocusforAmericanengagementthroughoutthe world. Both Kerry and Hagel have personalexperiencesrootedinthetimetheyspentfightinginVietnam,whichremindthemofthelimitsofAmeri-canpower,andliketheirboss’semergingdoctrinemandates,arejudiciouswhenconsideringtheuseofAmericanmilitarypower.

President Barack Obama’s place in the historybooksisassured;hisfirst-termachievementsandsocio-historicbackgroundguaranteeit.AchievingsimilarsuccessinhissecondadministrationwouldnotguaranteeaplaceonMtRushmore,butitwouldplace theonusonopponents toexplainwhy thisformercommunityorganizerhadnotmonumentallychangedAmericansocietyanditscitizens’relation-shiptotheirgovernment–acorerequirementofjoiningPresidentsWashington,Jefferson,LincolnandRoosevelt.


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Cover photo: lawrence Jackson / White house photo

language editing: lynn nikkanen

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