casa_mukhidinov presentation at idb annual meetings_may 20 2013_eng.pptx

7/28/2019 CASA_Mukhidinov Presentation at IDB Annual Meetings_May 20 2013_eng.pptx

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DushanbeMay 20, 2013

Progress Update and Planning for Next Steps


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KazakhstanReserves:

Oil 30 billion bblNatural Gas 85 TCFCoal 31.3 billion tonsHydro Power 20,000 MW

UzbekistanReserves:Oil 594million bblNatural Gas 66TCFCoal 3.3 billion tonsHydro Power 1,700 MW

TurkmenistanReserves:

Oil 600million bblNatural Gas 280 TCFCoal ModestHydro Power Modest

TajikistanReserves:

Oil 0.01 billion bblNatural Gas 0.2 TCFCoal 3.6billion tonsHydro Power 40,000 MW

KyrgyzstanReserves:

Oil 0.04 billion bblNatural Gas 0.2 TCFCoal 0.9billion tonsHydro Power 26,000 MW

Central Asia is endowed with vast energy potential


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whereas Afghanistan and Pakistan face severe

electricity shortages and rapidly increasing demand

Electricity riots in Rawalpindi, PakistanGuardian photo

CountryPopulation

Million

GNI per capita

Current US$

Per Capita ElectricityConsumption

(kWh/year)

InstalledCapacity

(GW)

Access RatePeak shortage

(MW)

Afghanistan 29 310 31 0.5 13% --

Pakistan 166 1000 413 19.8 84% 5,022

Power network in Kabul, AfghanistanKabulkarzaiblogspot photo


4/17

The proposed CASA-1000

transmission facilities would:

maximize the use of 1,300 MW

renewable summer electricity

surplus from existing plants in

Central Asia

(Kyrgyz Republic & Tajikistan)

and

provide electricity to

consumers in electricitydeficient South Asia

(Afghanistan & Pakistan)

4


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5

Even without new power generation,

Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan have sufficient electricity

surplus during summers to warrant CASA-1000

3,750

GWh

18,815

GWh

Summer

surplus

Domestic

consumption

2,150

GWh

14,585

GWh

Power domestic consumption and summer surplus (est. 2016 based

on feasibility report)

Tajikistan* Kyrgyz Republic

*Tajikistan spills water from its dams without generating electricity during the summer


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The CASA-1000 project includes:

500 kV line Datka-Khudjand (477 km),with Tajik network transferring Kyrgyzexports to Sangtuda.

Tajikistan Grid Strengthening.

1300 MW AC-DC Convertor Station atSangtuda.

750 km HVDC line Sangtuda-Kabul-Peshawar.

300 MW Convertor Station at Kabul(with both import & export

capability). 1300 MW DC-AC Convertor Station at

Peshawar.

6


7/17

CASA-1000 benefits all four countries:

Ensures a steady source of revenue from surplus hydropower exports for

Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic, the weakest economies in Central Asia

Uses excess summer electricity that is currently being spilled

Alleviates electricity shortages in Pakistan during the peak summer season

Replaces fuel-based power generation in Afghanistan and Pakistan with

clean hydropower

Establishes Afghanistan as a viable transit country, enhancing growth

prospects

Requires no new power generation investments

7


8/17

Project cost estimates per the feasibility study

8

Kyrgyz Republic US$ 200 million

Tajikistan US$ 250 million

Afghanistan US$ 300 million

Pakistan US$ 200 million

Total US$ 950 million

US$1 billion investment in countries with constrained borrowing capacity

US State Department, AusAid, DFID, ADB, Islamic Development Bank, USAID,

IFC and World Bank among the donors supporting pre-preparation activities


9/17

Project Status Preparation work is proceeding with Joint Working Group (JWG) through

monthly VCs and face-to-face meetings.

IGC Secretariat strengthenedExecutive Director (ED) appointed; USAID

funding additional Advisor to the ED; Secretariat accounts audited.

Project commercial structure finalized two options were reviewed (with

and without setting up a separate project company.) The option of

Contractual JV (without an SPV for CASA) is preferred by JWG; IGC

resolution has been developed and endorsed by two countries

(Afghanistan and Tajikistan).

Project commercial contract framework and Model PPA developed and is

under review/discussion by the countries.

IFC Agreement to support procurement of constructor/operator signedby all. The Joint Working Group is working closely with the IFC to prepare

bidding documents for procuring engineer/procure/construct/operate

services for the project.

CASA-1000 included in the CAREC Energy Work Plan (2013-15).

Communications established online (www.casa-1000.org) 9
http://www.casa-1000.org/http://www.casa-1000.org/http://www.casa-1000.org/http://www.casa-1000.org/


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The CASA IGC and JWG

10

Afghanistan

WG

Kyrgyz

WG

Pakistan

WG

Tajikistan

WG

Joint Working

Group

IntergovernmentCouncil

Afghanistan

IGC member

Kyrgyz

IGC member

Pakistan

IGC member

Tajikistan

IGC member

IGC Secretariat


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Two Main Options for Project Structure

Option A: Contractual Joint Venture

Option B: Corporate Joint Venture

Countries preferred the Option A

Project Structure


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H

G

A

H

G

A

Standard Transmission Terms & Conditions ( Commercial Rules and Technical Rules) (STCs)

Government of

Kyrgyzstan (GOK)

Government of

Tajikistan (GOT)Government of

Afghanistan

(GOA)

Government of

Pakistan (GOP)

IGC

EPC Contractor

DC Facilities O&M

Contractor

National

Electric

Grid JSC

OJSHC Barki

TojikDABS

CentralPower

Purchase

AgencyPower Purchase Agreements incorporating the STCs

Consortium

Agreement ?

O&M Agreement

re DC Line

Figure 1: Option A- The Contractual Joint Venture

IFIs and Donors

Construction

Agreements

Project

Agreements

H

G

A

H

G

A

Debt

Debt

Debt

Debt


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Project past milestones

MOU and Inter-Governmental

Agreement(IGA) for CASAsigned by all

four countries

Feasibility StudyUpdate

Completed

First Inter-GovernmentalCouncil (IGC)meeting after

feasibilityupdate

in Bishkek

Joint WorkingGroups (WG)established

Second IGCmeeting in

Dubaiagrees on

projectimplementation

mobilizingfinances

Most ofsupporting

studiescompleted;Commercial

framework andmodel

agreementsdrafted

13


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Key challenges for Project preparation

Country capacity and commitment to work on commercial

deal Maintain continued commitment and build capacity (country advisors) to

sustain the overall momentum of the Project.

One countrys slowness affects the entire process.

Support in bidding process (bidding advisors - IFC)

Perception from outside (links to Rogun/Kambarata, security in Afghanistan,

etc.)

Financing gap a critical issue A key assumption for the preferred structure is that the project will be fully

financed by IFIs (no private investments).

Two committed financiers (WB and IsDB); Gulf Coordination Group (aka Arab

Funds) interested in financing via IsDB; the Russian offer remains on the table

but its terms/conditions are not clear.

Donors conference and visits to capitals planned for 2013.

A narrow window late 2013 for approvals and much yet to do

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15/17

Proposed plan and actions

IFCAgreementis signed by

allcountries

IFC tosecurefunding(from

Donors) forservices /

commencework

Completeselection of

CountryAdvisors

Model PPA;Master

Agreementand IGC

resolutionon key

principles

Adoptingthe IGC

resolution

Visit majordonor

capitalsFirst DonorConference

LendingPCN review

meeting

Finalize commercialframework

Filling the financing

gap

Commercialnegotiationscompleted

Bank BoardDate

15


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Project building blocks

16

A. Countries ownership

and readiness

Dedicated WorkingGroup headed byDeputy Minister levelmeets every month;

Ministerial InterGovernmental Council(IGC) undertakes highlevel decisions;

Full-time IGCSecretariat ED andinternational advisors

in place

B. Project structuring

and legal framework

Project Structure isagreed;

Commercialframework designed;

The Model PowerPurchase Agreement(PPA) drafted;

C. Project financing

World Bank with IDBand Gulf CoordinationGroup (GCG)indicated their

willingness to finance.Other potential co-

financiers include KfWof Germany, AsianDevelopment Bank,JICA of Japan, DFID ofUK, and Russia

D. Preparatory studies

and assessments

Project FeasibilityStudy completed

Environment andSocial Assessment

and Avian Riskmanagement studyfor the projectcompleted

Community Benefitsharing studiesongoing

Security RiskAssessment andMitigation Plancompleted

Development of openaccess rules ongoing


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17www.casa-1000.org
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casa_mukhidinov presentation at idb annual meetings_may 20 2013_eng.pptx

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