case for a new transbay rail crossing - bay area council

The Megaregional Case for a New Transbay Rail Crossing'FCSVBSZ 202� - DRAFT

New Transbay Rail Crossing:Making the Case for a Key Megaregional Connection

February 2021

PRE-PANDEMIC MEGAREGIONAL TRENDS

| www.bayareaeconomy.org | @bayareaeconomy | #Link21

Northern California Megaregion Stats:

• Population: 12.7 million

• Jobs: 5.8 million

• Combined GDP: $1.1 trillion


Pre-COVID-19, there was a geographic mismatch of employment and population growth in the megaregion


This mismatch was largely driven by high home prices in Bay Area countiesAlameda

Contra Costa

El Dorado

Marin

Merced

Monterey

Napa

Placer

Sacramento

San Benito

San Francisco

San Joaquin

San Mateo

Santa Clara

Santa Cruz

Solano

Sonoma

Stanislaus

Yolo

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

$1,800,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Data: Redfin, median sale price June of each year

San Francisco Bay Area

MontereyBay Area

Sacramento Area

Northern San Joaquin Valley

Median Home Sale Price Over Time in the Megaregion


Commuting over long distances became much more common in the last decade


Megaregional commuters use transit at a much lower rate than the Bay Area workforce as a whole – a product of limited access and/or slower train travel times

Other1%

Bike/Ped5% Work From

Home6%

Carpool10%

Transit12%

Drive Alone66%

Employed in the San Francisco Bay Area

Other2%

Bike/Ped3%

Work From Home

7%

Carpool9% Transit

2%

Drive Alone78%

Employed in the Other 12 Counties in the Megaregion TRAVEL PREFERENCE

All Employed in Bay AreaTRAVEL PREFERENCE

Employed in Bay Area and Living Outside Nine Counties


Megaregional commute times were increasing prior to COVID-19, particularly for workers in SF and the Peninsula

2525

Bay Area Council Economic Institute

&RPPXWH�7LPHVThe average amount of time commuters in the megaregion spend on their daily commute varies based on their characteristics. While the majority of the workforce in the megaregion spends only 30 minutes or less commuting each way, some industries, income levels, and people who live and work in different areas experience longer commute times. The following chart shows commute times based on county of residence.

At a high level, travel time data shows that most commuters in the Northern California Megaregion experience a maximum commute time of 60 minutes in each direction, and there is a steep dropoff in the number of commuters with travel times greater than one

hour. Across the megaregion, 426,000 people commute between 51 and 60 minutes each way, while only 56,000 commute between 61 and 70 minutes each way.

Over time, commutes in the San Francisco Bay Area and the rest of the megaregion have become longer. Commutes among those working in the San Francisco Bay Area that are 50+ minutes have increased as a percentage of the total from 11% in 2010 to 19% in 2018. In the other 12 counties in the megaregion, the share of total commutes over 50 minutes each way rose from 6% in 2010 to 8% in 2018. In San Francisco and San Mateo counties, as of 2018, 24% of the total workforce employed in the two counties commutes over 50 minutes, up from 15% in 2010.

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THE MEGAREGION POST-PANDEMIC


Early trends show COVID-19 has accelerated the disbursement of office jobs across the megaregion

Sacramento Area +1.7%

Northern San Joaquin Valley

-5.6%

Monterey Bay Area-6.8%

San Francisco Bay Area

-2.0%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2020 % Change in Information, Finance, and Professional Services Jobs Across the Northern California Megaregion

Data: California EDDAnalysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute


Early trends show COVID-19 has shifted housing preferences across the megaregion


Source: mymove.com


A 1-hour train ride to/from San Francisco covers a smaller distance than in peer megaregions


A new transbay rail crossing is one of many rail projects that can create a more connected Northern California Megaregion


Megaregional Economic Benefits of a New Transbay Rail Crossing

• Trends in jobs/housing – both before and during the pandemic –underscore the importance of planning for more efficient regional rail

• A new transbay rail crossing is an enabling project, unlocking potential for other rail improvements to provide better access to new markets

• Improves access to rail travel, particularly for trips between Sacramento/ Northern San Joaquin Valley and the San Francisco Bay Area that are now completed via car or longer transit travel times with multiple transfers

• Provides new opportunities for economic growth by creating faster, frequent, and reliable travel between high quality jobs, education centers, healthcare, and recreation across the megaregion

• Creates a passenger rail system that can make Northern California economically competitive against other megaregions

case for a new transbay rail crossing - bay area council

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