16/26/2013

Date June 20, 2013

William H. Bartley P.E.Engineering Consultant, Hartford Steam Boiler

Joy RohdeDirector of Market StrategyAtmospheric and Environmental Research

AER is a Verisk Analytics Company

Case Study: Leveraging Data on Wind, Storm Surge and Electrical Blackout in the Superstorm Sandy Aftermath

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“Our electrical infrastructure system is a marvel of engineering…for the last century”

- Dr. Massoud Amin, University of Minnesota

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Impact of Hurricane SandyImpact of Hurricane Sandy

• Second costliest Atlantic hurricane

• Damage near $18 billion

• Affected 24 states– Along coast from

Florida to Maine– Inland as far as

MichiganAnalysis by AER Respond™

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Electrical Blackout during SandyElectrical Blackout during Sandy

Business interruption losses are costly: ~One major insurer reported 30% of all Sandy insured losses were BIPeak outage of 8M customers was down to 650K within 8 days (DOE 20th Situation Report)

AER – compiled from DOE situation reports

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Statistics for Blackouts in the U.S.Statistics for Blackouts in the U.S.

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Number of Significant US Weather-Related Grid Disturbances is Rising

Number of Significant US Weather-Related Grid Disturbances is Rising

Source: Electric Grid Disruptions and Extreme Weather, 2012, Campbell

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Estimated Annual Costs Associated with Power Outage

Estimated Annual Costs Associated with Power Outage

>$100 Billion>$100 Billion

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Factors that Caused Blackouts During Sandy

Factors that Caused Blackouts During Sandy

• High Speed Winds‐Near hurricane gusts of up to 90 mph at 

coast, but 50‐60 inland‐12 hour duration for gusts greater factor in loss

• Storm Surge‐responsible for more damage than wind‐Peak water levels of 14 ft100 year flood  level at 11 ft.

• Aging Infrastructure

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Peak Wind Gusts - SandyPeak Wind Gusts - Sandy

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AER Respond™ for Hurricane:Preparing for and Responding to ImpactsAER Respond™ for Hurricane:Preparing for and Responding to Impacts• Forecast out to 5 days• 6 hourly updates of maximum sustained winds and

gusts, timings and durations of wind• Analyses of rainfall to track

flooding potential• Neighborhood-level detail

Analysis by AER Respond™Analysis by AER Respond™

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Fire and Storm Surge Damage:Satellite Imagery of Breezy Point, QueensFire and Storm Surge Damage:Satellite Imagery of Breezy Point, Queens

Pre‐Storm Post‐Storm

Archived imagery from Google Commercial satellite imagery sourced, enhanced, and analyzed by AER

Fire area(126 structures)

Storm surge evidenced by residual sand and water

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Flooding and Substation OutageFlooding and Substation Outage

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• Cause-of-loss data at the property-specific level used to diagnose claim occurrence, severity and coverage– Reliable estimates of when hazards started, stopped and peaked

New Forensic Weather and Satellite Technologies are Becoming Standard Resources in ClaimsNew Forensic Weather and Satellite Technologies are Becoming Standard Resources in Claims

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Wind Gust (3‐sec mph) Rain Rate (cm/hr)Flood Depth (ft)

Time Sequence of Hazards at the Property LevelPost‐Event Satellite Image of Damages

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Transmission and Distribution FundamentalsTransmission and Distribution Fundamentals

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The continental U.S. is divided into three independent grids: Eastern, Western & Texas, with only a few interconnects. The continental U.S. is divided into three independent grids: Eastern, Western & Texas, with only a few interconnects.

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Power System OperatorsPower System Operators

Midwest (MISO)Midwest (MISO)

California (CAISO)California (CAISO)

New England (ISO-NE)New England (ISO-NE)

New York (NYISO)New York (NYISO)NorthwestNorthwest

PJMPJM

SoutheastSoutheastSouthwestSouthwest

SPPSPP

Texas (ERCOT)Texas (ERCOT)

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Utilities and System OperatorsUtilities and System Operators

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Definitions (North America)Definitions (North America)

• Transmission system:Transmission 250,000 to 800,000volts (or 800kV)

Moves large amounts of power across statesSub-Transmission 69,000v to 250,000v

Moves large amounts of power within a state

• Distribution systemDelivers power from transmission

to customer

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SubstationsSubstations

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Typical DistributionSystemTypical DistributionSystem

15kV bus

feeder #1 #2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

= 15kV Primary feeders = 480 or 208 volt Secondary Network cables = Network limiter (fuse) = Network Transformer = pole top transformer

Main St Substation2 Transformers

100 MVA 138kV /15kV 9 feeders 15 kV ea.

(n + 2)

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A closer look at distribution networkA closer look at distribution network

208/120v secondary

15kV branches

transformers network network protector limiter

secondary customer connections "mains"

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Northern Queens NY DistributionNorthern Queens NY Distribution

#3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

= 27kV Primary feeders = Network Transformer (1200 of them) =208/120v Secondary Network cables = Network limiter (fuse) = Customer connection

feeder #1 #2

North Queens AreaSubstation

5 Transformers 93MVA ea138kV / 27kV

22 feeders(n- 5)

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New York blackout Northern Queens 2006New York blackout Northern Queens 2006

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New York blackout Northern Queens 2006New York blackout Northern Queens 2006

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#3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

= 27kV Primary feeders = Network Transformer (1200 of them)=208/120v Secondary Network cables

= Network limiter (fuse) = Customer connection

feeder #1 #2

138kV / 27kV

22 feeders(n- 5)

Details on Con Ed’s LIC networkDetails on Con Ed’s LIC network

• 285 Miles of 27kV feeder cable • 1700 Miles of low voltage cable• 1200 network transformers

• Loss of one or more 27kV feeders (black lines) does notaffect individual customers

• Loss of one or more network transformers does not affect individual customers

• Loss of a section of low voltage cable can affect a small segment of customers.

• The LIC Network is just one of 57 Con Ed area networks.

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Power Outage Analysisfrom satellite nighttime light imageryPower Outage Analysisfrom satellite nighttime light imagery

Alternating Pre/Post‐Storm ViewsAER Analysis:Areas of most significant outage

NYC & Long Island

NJShore

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Analysis covers affected counties in NJ, NY, and CT

1. Percent Outage Per Zip Code1. Percent Outage Per Zip Code

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2. Percent Outage per Location (zip 07733)2. Percent Outage per Location (zip 07733)

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Planning for the Next SandyPlanning for the Next Sandy

• Are your response resources sufficient?• 5 days before landfall, track expected winds• Begin to plan deployment of Catastrophe

Response teams• Understand the likelihood of damage to

heavily populated regions• Merge wind forecasts with PIF to estimate

potential losses

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Strategic Partnership between HSB and AERStrategic Partnership between HSB and AER

Provide cutting edge technology and services solution to comprehensively understand and assess blackout risk in the U.S., enabling clients to:

Assess financial risk to their business assets and liabilities from electrical outages

Plan for rapid response to minimize the effect on businesses and people

Optimize underwriting and portfolio risk management

Technology will be utilized by insurers and reinsurers, commercial and industrial firms, and other businesses

Alliance purposeCombine, enhance and commercialize the blackout risk data, technologies and expertise that HSB and AER built, calibrated and applied within our businesses over the past decade