case study: national survey of family growth karen e. davis national center for health statistics...
DESCRIPTION
NCHS SURVEYS Records based –Data from vital and medical records – e.g. NDI, VSCP Population based –Data from personal interviews – e.g. NHIS, NSFG, NIS, SLAITS,NHANES Establishment based –Data from hospital records/facility interviews – e.g. NAMCS, NHAMCS, NHDS, NNHS 3TRANSCRIPT
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CASE STUDY: NATIONAL SURVEY OF FAMILY GROWTH
Karen E. DavisNational Center for Health Statistics
Coordinating Center for Health Information and Service
NCHS Data Users Conference, Washington, D.C. July 12, 2006
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NCHS SURVEYS• Records based
– Data from vital and medical records– e.g. NDI, VSCP
• Population based– Data from personal interviews– e.g. NHIS, NSFG, NIS, SLAITS,NHANES
• Establishment based– Data from hospital records/facility interviews – e.g. NAMCS, NHAMCS, NHDS, NNHS
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PRESENTATION OUTLINE
• The NSFG Cycle 6 Sample• SRS versus complex?• Estimates from NSFG Data• Cycle 7 Sample
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NSFG Background
• NSFG data are a source of information on childbearing, pregnancy, and related events
• Collects statistics on family formation, childbearing, marriage, divorce, and cohabitation
• Conducted periodically: 1973, 1976, 1982, 1988, 1995, 2002-2003
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NSFG Cycle 6
• Previous cycles were nationally representative area samples of the civilian noninstitutionalized population of women
• Cycle 6 surveys both men and women 15-44 years of age
• Main data collection Mar. 2002–Feb. 2003
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Key Analytical Goals of Cycle 6
• Compare key statistics within Cycle 6 by race/ethnicity and age
• Compare key statistics between survey cycles
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Key Statistics of Cycle 6
• Proportion of teenagers who have ever had sexual intercourse;
• Proportion of teenagers who used a condom at their most recent intercourse;
• Proportion of each 5-year age group who are currently using the oral contraceptive pill; and
• Proportion of childless women by age who have impaired fecundity.
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Cycle 6 Sample Design
• 121 PSU stratified multistage cluster sample of households
• Primary selection: blocks– Select 1,414 segments– Select 40 households per segment
• 55,000 selected housing units
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Cycle 6 Distribution by Region
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Region Number of Segments Number of HUs
Northeast 341 13,420
Southeast 336 13,145
West 399 15,675
Midwest 324 12,760
Total 1400 55,000
Source: ISR
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Cycle 6 Sample Design Features
• 12,571 completed interviews
– Females and Males 15-44
– Higher rates for African-Americans, Hispanics and 15-19 year-olds
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Cycle 6 Analytical Subdomains
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Age
Females Males
Black Hispanic Other Black Hispanic Other
15-19
20-24
25-44
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Cycle 6 Sample Design Features
• Within Household Selection
– Select one eligible person at random
– Implement selection in Blaise software– Age-gender-race/ethnicity selection cells– Vary sampling rates across cells
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Cycle 6 Sample Design
Why not use Simple Random Sampling?
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Simple Random Sampling
• All frame elements have an equal chance of selection
• All combinations of frame elements (of the given sample size) have an equal chance of selection
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Simple Random Sampling
• Costly data collection – sampling individual members of the population
• Does not assure representation of special sub-groups of interest
• No complete, up-to-date listing of individual members of the population
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Use of complex designs
• Cluster sampling is a low-cost device for fixing the probability of including each member of the population in the sample
• Complete listings of clusters (e.g. counties) are readily available
• Special subgroups are sampled at higher rates to assure sample size
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Use of complex designs
• Can reduce sampling error over simple random sampling depending on allocation of strata
• Can reduce travel or other data collection costs• Unequal selection probabilities can increase the
sample size of rare units
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Cycle 6 Sample Design
• Complex design is essential for NSFG targets:
– Females and Males 15-44
– Higher rates for African-Americans, Hispanics and 15-19 year-olds
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Cycle 6 Responsive DesignMore timely data on field costs and response rates • ISR developed SurveyTrak system for daily info on
hours of effort required to obtain interviews• Field administrative data used for statistical
modeling and statistical process control analysis• Prevent cost over-runs and manage fieldwork given
limited budget• Implement double sample in final month
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NSFG Weighting
• The product of four factors is used to create a single weight for each case:
• Factor 1: Base sampling weights – Inverse of selection probabilities
• Factor 2: First-stage ratio adjustment– Counteracts sampling variation across primary
sampling units within a stratum
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NSFG Weighting
• Factor 3: Nonresponse adjustment– Includes eligibility, noncontact, and refusal
adjustments
• Factor 4: Poststratification adjustment– Uses external population totals for ratio
adjustments by age, gender, and race/ethnicity
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NSFG Imputation
• Logical Imputation– Deduce missing answer from answers to other
questions
• Multivariate sequential regression– Model based on nonmissing predictors
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NSFG Variance Estimation
• Should reflect complex design including unequal selection probabilities and clustering of respondents
• A variance estimate based on a simple random sample will likely underestimate the actual sampling variance
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NSFG Variance Estimation
• Taylor Series or pseudo-replication
• Complex variance estimation software (e.g. SUDAAN, WesVarPC, SAS)
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NSFG Design Effects
• Provide a summary measure of the combined effects of stratification, clustering, and unequal weighting on the variance of a survey estimate.
• Design Effects are generally larger for subgroups that are oversampled because of the sample design.
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NSFG Cycle 7
Continuous interviewing• 4400 male and female respondents per year• Content similar to Cycle 6• Collect data more frequentlyResponsive design• Reduce cost per case
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NSFG Cycle 7 Sample Design
• Use the same 8 large Metro areas each year, plus 25 new PSUs each year
– Year 1: 33 PSUs (8 +25) (2006-2007)– Year 2: 58 PSUs (8 +50) (2008)– Year 3: 83 PSUs (8 + 75) (2009)– Year 4: 108 PSUs (8 + 100) (2010)
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Sample Size Yields for Cycle 7
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Cycle 6 Cycle 7
(2002)Jun 2006-Dec 2007
Jun 2006- Dec 2010
Total 12,571 6,600 19,800
15-19 2,271 1,200 3,100
Male 4,928 2,970 8,900
Female 7,643 3,630 10,900
Hispanic 2,712 1,313 3,940
Black 2,460 1,340 4,020
Source: ISR
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References for the NSFG Design: NCHS Publications
National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle 6: Sample Design, Weighting, Imputation and Variance Estimation. Series 2, No. 142 (June, 2006)
Plan and Operation of Cycle 6 of the National Survey of Family Growth. Series 1, No. 42 (August, 2005)
Both are available at NCHS website.
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