cash management of malaysian banks_ k. g. balachander and santha
TRANSCRIPT
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Cash Management of Malaysian Banks
K. G. BalachanderV. Santha
Bala Shanmugam
ABSTRACT. This study aims to identify seasonal variations in the form of
day of the week, month of the year, and time of the month effects on the de-mand and supply of cash based on daily cash data obtained from a sample of
banks in Malaysia. This information would increase the efficiency of vault
cash management policies of banks, which would in turn increase the profit-
ability of banks since the degree to which banks optimize their vault cash hold-
ing has revenue and cost implications. These seasonal effects have been tested
using the one-way ANOVA technique, and the findings revealed that the de-
mand for general cash among Malaysian banks has been on the decline
throughout theyears dueto theintroduction of newchannels of delivery. There
was also sufficient statistical evidence, though to varying extent, that indicates
the presence of month of the year and time of the month effects on banks de-
mand for and supply of cash. [Article copies available for a fee from The Haworth
Document Delivery Service: 1-800-HAWORTH. E-mail address: Website: 2002 by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.]
KEYWORDS.Cash management, vault cash, Malaysia, banking, demandand supply of cash
K. G. Balachander and V. Santha are Lecturers, Center for Multimedia Banking, Mul-timedia University, 63100, Cyberjaya, Malaysia.
Bala Shanmugam is Director, Banking and Finance Research Unit, Monash Univer-sity Malaysian Campus, No. 2, Jalan Kolej, Bandar Sunway, 46150 Petaling Jaya,Selangor, Malaysia (Email: [email protected]).
Address correspondence to Bala Shanmugam.
Journal of Asia-Pacific Business, Vol. 4(3) 2002http://www.haworthpressinc.com/store/product.asp?sku=J098 2002 by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved. 69
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INTRODUCTION
Malaysia is still far away from the notions of a cashless society. Conse-quently physical cash becomes the most fundamental resource necessaryfor the successful and continued operations of banks. However, as pointedout by Daniel and Baxter (1999), most banks in Malaysia and in Asia havepaid very little consideration to cash management. Thus, while bankswere willing to spend millions of dollars for the latest technology andbusiness process reengineering to augment revenues and minimize costs,they have obviously turned a blind eye toward issues relating to minimiz-ing costs of holding cash (vault).
The general practice among banks in Malaysia is for the head office of
each bank to specify a blanket vault cash management policy, which doesnot take into account factors such as location of the branches andday-to-day variations in the supply and demand for cash into account(Hamid, 1998). Thus, there is great likelihood that the vault cash manage-ment policy of these banks may be far from optimal and hence wasteful.This practice would, no doubt, affect the profitability of banks since thedegree to which banks optimize their vault cash holding has revenue andcost implications.
This study is basically contemporary in nature rather than futuristic andhence focuses in analyzing seasonal variations and trends in the daily de-mand for and supply of cash at commercial banks. To this extent, it mustbe appreciated from the beginning that one of the greatest stumblingblocks to research of this nature is the availability of data.
This study is thus based on data from a small sample of ten bankbranches located in the Klang Valleya region not atypical of urban Ma-laysia. The paper first provides a discussion of the Malaysian banks cashmanagement issues. Second, trends in the demand for cash at Malaysianbanks are analyzed. Third, the seasonal variations in the withdrawals anddeposits of these banks are analyzed. The final section presents the con-clusions and recommendations.
THE VAULT CASH MANAGEMENT ISSUE
The cash held at a banks vault together with any deposits the bank hasplaced with other banks and the banks reserve accounts held with the
Central Bank are often referred to as primary reserves. As argued byWrase (1998), excess reserves may be handy, as such reserves can guardagainst unexpected payment outflows. These cash assets are a banks first
70 JOURNAL OF ASIA-PACIFIC BUSINESS
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line of defense against deposit withdrawals and the first source of funds toturn to when a customer comes up with an unexpected request for cash(Glaze, 1999).
In the banking business, availability of cash is an extremely importantaspect of customer service. Inadequate cash availability can lead to cus-tomer dissatisfaction and hence loss of customer goodwill (De La Rue,1999). There would also be the costs of inter-bank borrowings to meet thebanks liquidity needs. In the case of automated teller machines (ATMs),there would also be the loss of interchange fees. Thus, inadequate cashavailability in a bank would not only have implications for bank costs butalso bank revenues. However, though a 100% availability would implynever running out of cash, the cost of maintaining such high levels of cash
can be prohibitive. In short, there is a trade-off between liquidity and prof-itability for banks.
The demand for cash at any bank or branch or even service centerwould be unique depending on its geographical location and customerbase (GMT, 1999). Furthermore, the demand patterns may be quite erraticdue to trends, seasonal effects, structural shifts, public holidays and spe-cial events. Thus, there is a need for dynamic demand forecasting thattakes these factors into consideration in an effort to determine the optimalcash to be held at each bank on a daily basis. In this context, a general ruleof thumb blanket policy for all banks would certainly be inappropriate(Tan, 1998).
Allen (1998) examined the daily vault cash holdings in the Eighth Dis-
trict banks in the United States to determine whether the observedamounts of vault cash held by these banks are consistent with the funda-mental assumptions of a one-sided (S,s) inventory decision rule. The (S,s)model first developed by Scarf (1960) simply represents an upper limit ofvault cash (S) and a lower limit or replenishment signal (s) which are de-termined based on the intra-day profile of withdrawals and deposits aswell as the costs associated with shipments and the opportunity costs ofstocking out. Allens (1998) findings based on 1997 data appeared to sup-port the idea that banks in the Eighth District (U.S.) have not been manag-ing vault cash holdings very closely. Within the context of the (S,s)inventory model, the variance of net withdrawals and/or the penalty asso-ciated with running out would have to be very high to justify the levels ofvault cash balances held by these banks.
When deciding how much cash to order or to clear, a model which is cus-tomized for each location and takes account of information such as cost fac-tors, carrier parameters, demand patterns and other physical constraints needs
Balachander, Santha, and Shanmugam 71
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to be developed. Whether cash holding costs are minimized depends a greatdeal on the quality of the modeling (Ashford, 2000).
To this extent it is worth noting that the major cost drivers in any cur-rency management environment relate to cash holding, carrier activityand general cash handling. These are competing costs and the aim is tofind the right cash ordering and clearing strategies that minimize the totalcosts.
Baxter and Daniel (1999) indicated that establishing a cost to holding cashwas important because it provides a benchmark for bankers and other cash in-tensive organizations to reengineer their processes. To this extent, they identi-fied the following as the main cost elements of cash holding.
i. interest rate lost (cost of storage)ii. transport cost of replenishments (cost of ordering)iii. security (cost of storage)iv. cost of insurance/fraud (cost of storage)
TRENDS IN MALAYSIAN DEPOSITORSDEMAND FOR CASH
Allen (1998) had used the ratio of commercial bank vault cash to de-mand deposits as a proxy for the depositors or public demand for cash.High values of this ratio may indicate either high depositors demand forcurrency or a conservative cash management policy on the part of the
commercial banks. On the other hand, low values of this ratio may eitherindicate low depositors demand for currency or a more prudent cash man-agement policy on the part of commercial banks.
As can be seen from Table 1 and subsequently illustrated in Figure 1,the vault cash of Malaysian commercial banks as a percentage of demanddeposits appears to indicate a downward trend. This may indicate a de-cline in the demand for cash or currency on the part of the Malaysian pub-lic or an increasingly prudent cash holding policy on the part ofcommercial banks. The former would appear to be a more plausible expla-nation, in view of the developments which have been taking place in theMalaysian economy. Research by Budhiraja and Latiff (1998) stated thegrowing importance of information technology in the banking industryhas helped to reduce the need for carrying much cash and for banks to
maintain a large vault space. Technological advancements and innova-tions in the area of information technology and telecommunications arereshaping consumer behaviour and payment systems, which tend to devi-
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ate from extensive use of cash (Suganthi et al., 2001). This is clearly repre-sented by the increasing use of credit cards, charge or debit cards and, oflate, smart cards by Malaysian consumers.
In addition, businesses need for large volumes of cash for salary pay-ments too have been reduced via the banking services where employee
salaries are credited directly into their accounts and withdrawals are madebased on needs by the employees from automated teller machines(ATMs). Automated teller machines have also reduced the precautionary
Balachander, Santha, and Shanmugam 73
TABLE 1. Vault Cash as a Percentage of Demand Deposits
Year Cash at
Commercial
Banks (RM
million)
Demand
Deposits
(RM
million)
Vault Cash
as a
Percentage
of Demand
Deposits
(%)
Year Cash at
Commercial
Banks (RM
million)
Demand
Deposits
(RM
million)
Vault Cash
as a
Percentage
of Demand
Deposits
(%)
1959 51.3 465.7 11 1980 346.7 5326.2 7
1960 56.8 476.5 12 1981 393.3 6234.8 6
1961 48.7 497.3 10 1982 403.0 7223.5 6
1962 59.9 520.0 12 1983 532.5 8062.5 7
1963 54.6 556.5 10 1984 587.0 8088.3 7
1964 68.5 664.7 10 1985 553.2 7950.4 7
1965 82.6 713.8 12 1986 565.6 7598.2 7
1966 84.3 795.0 11 1987 607.0 9017.3 7
1967 87.6 791.8 11 1988 660.8 10032.9 7
1968 92.2 920.3 10 1989 729.7 12762.1 6
1969 89.8 991.4 9 1990 1164.7 15024.8 8
1970 96.3 1068.1 9 1991 1025.3 16650.5 6
1971 84.0 1077.6 8 1992 1031.6 19068.4 5
1972 90.6 1485.9 6 1993 1115.2 29279.9 4
1973 110.4 2030.3 5 1994 1248.4 31777.4 4
1974 151.2 2081.8 7 1995 1434.1 36300.5 4
1975 152.9 2197.4 7 1996 2032.9 44534.8 5
1976 161.8 2728.3 6 1997 3098.5 45800.7 7
1977 185.3 3190.6 6 1998 2295.0 36792.5 6
1978 218.5 3801.9 6 1999 2702.9 48413.3 6
1979 267.6 4548.9 6 2000 2814.7 54627.2 5
Source: Money and Banking in Malaysia (1994), BNM Monthly Statistical Bulletin (2000)
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demand for cash since ATMs are widespread and operate almost 24 hoursa day. This finding certainly has implications for commercial banks vaultcash management policies. If the demand for cash is actually decreasing,then the obvious question that arises is whether the cash held at banks areactually optimal or are they far beyond requirements resulting in idle cashand hence wasteful utilization of a useful resource.
SEASONAL VARIATIONSIN BANK WITHDRAWALS AND DEPOSITS
In relation to cash withdrawals and deposits at commercial banks, theseasonal variations can be classified as day of the week variations, monthof the year variations and time of the month variations. In this context, thedeposits and withdrawals pattern over the week can be expected to varyaccording to the day of the week. Furthermore, since Malaysia is a land ofnumerous festivities occurring in various months of the year, the bankingbusiness activities can also be expected to vary according to the month ofthe year. Finally, the consumer behavioral patterns in relation to depositsand withdrawals may vary at different periods of the month and thus thetime of the month can also influence these cash flows. The seasonal varia-tions in the demand for and supply of cash at commercial banks would
certainly have implications for the efficient vault cash management ofthese institutions. Each one of these seasonal components will thus be an-alyzed in the following sections.
74 JOURNAL OF ASIA-PACIFIC BUSINESS
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
Year
Vau
ltC
as
h
Deman
dDepos
it(%
)
-
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Trends in Vault Cash as a Percentage of Demand Deposits
FIGURE 1
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Day of the Week Effect on Bank Withdrawals and Deposits
The day of the week effect on the withdrawals and deposits are ana-lyzed by using the one-way ANOVA technique. This analysis basicallyinvolves the testing of the following hypotheses for the withdrawals anddeposits, respectively.
Day of the Week Effect on Bank Withdrawals
The result of the one-way ANOVA test on the day of the week effect oncommercial bank withdrawals is presented in Table 2. The results indicatea p-value of 13.6%, which is greater than the 5% level of significance.
Therefore, the null hypothesis is not rejected and it can be concluded thatthere is no evidence of differences in the mean daily withdrawals amongthe six days of the week. Thus, the results show an absence of a significantday of the week effect on the withdrawals at these sample branches.
Day of the Week Effect on Bank Deposits
The results of the one-way ANOVA test on the day of the week effecton commercial bank deposits is presented in Table 3. The results indicatea p-value of greater than 5% level of significance. Therefore, the null hy-
Balachander, Santha, and Shanmugam 75
TABLE 2. Summary of ANOVA Test Results for the Day of the Week Effect on
Withdrawals
Source Sum of Squares df Mean Square F-value p-value
Between Days 1.90719E+12 5 3.81439E+11 1.696 0.136
Within Days 6.47909E+13 288 2.24968E+11
Total 6.66981E+13 293
TABLE 3. Summary of ANOVA Test Results for the Day of the Week Effect on
Deposits
Source Sum of Squares df Mean Square F-value p-value
Between Days 6.3028E+12 5 1.26056E+12 2.125 0.063
Within Days 1.70832E+14 288 5.93166E+11
Total 1.77135E+14 293
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pothesis is not rejected and it is concluded that there is no evidence of dif-ferences in the mean daily deposits among the six days of the week. Thus,the results show an absence of a significant day of the week effect on thedeposits, which is similar to the result obtained in the case of withdrawals(see Figure 3).
Month of the Year Effect on Bank Withdrawals and Deposits
The month of the year effect on the withdrawals and deposits are alsoanalyzed using the one-way ANOVA technique. This analysis basicallyinvolves the testing of the following hypotheses for the withdrawals anddeposits, respectively.
Month of the Year Effect on Bank Withdrawals
The results of the one-way ANOVA test on the month of the year effecton commercial bank withdrawals is presented in Table 4. The results indi-cate a p-value of smaller than 5% level of significance. Therefore, the nullhypothesis is rejected and it can be concluded that there is evidence ofmonthly seasonal effects on withdrawals.
Since the null hypothesis was rejected, then according to Levine et al.(1999), the Tukey-Kramer procedure is used to determine exactly whichof the monthly means were significantly different from one another. Thefindings are presented in Table 5.
The entries in Table 5 are the mean differences between all possiblepair-wise combinations of the mean monthly withdrawals. The results in-dicate that the mean monthly demand is maximized in May and mini-mized in November. The pattern of variations in the mean monthlywithdrawals is illustrated in Figure 2. The largest amount of withdrawalsin May could be due to the long vacation granted to schools and colleges.Holiday makers would no doubt withdraw their savings to go on spendingsprees. Meanwhile, withdrawals are smaller in November indicating that
76 JOURNAL OF ASIA-PACIFIC BUSINESS
TABLE 4. Summary of ANOVA Test Results for the Month of the Year Effect on
Withdrawals
Source Sum of Squares df Mean Square F-value p-value
Between Months 2.74458E+13 11 2.49508E+12 17.925 0Within Months 3.92523E+13 282 1.39192E+11
Total 6.66981E+13 293
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TABL
E5.
SummaryoftheTukey-Kramer
Analysis
M
onths
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
ust
September
October
November
Dec
ember
Ja
nuary
2397544.5
5
2376509.4
3
24
4316.6
8
272838.6
4
152406.2
2
224944.1
32473355.0
7
2382695.0
52458815.6
02512275.3
7233
4579.4
2
Fe
bruary
397544.5
5
21035.1
2
64
1861.2
3
670383.1
9
549950.7
7
622488.6
8
275810.5
2
14849.4
9
261271.0
52114730.8
2
6
2965.1
2
March
376509.4
3
221035.1
2
62
0826.1
1
649348.0
8
528915.6
5
601453.5
6
296845.6
4
26185.6
2
282306.1
72135765.9
3
4
1930.0
1
Ap
ril
2244316.6
82641861.2
3
2620826.1
1
28521.9
6
291910.4
6219372.5
52717671.7
5
2627011.7
42703132.2
82756592.0
5257
8896.1
0
May
2272838.6
42670383.1
9
2649348.0
822
8521.9
6
2120432.4
2247894.5
12746193.7
1
2655533.7
02731654.2
42785114.0
1260
7418.0
7
Ju
ne
2152406.2
22549950.7
7
2528915.6
5
9
1910.4
6
120432.4
2
72537.9
12625761.2
9
2535101.2
82611221.8
22664681.5
9248
6985.6
5
Ju
ly
2224944.1
32622488.6
8
2601453.5
6
1
9372.5
5
47894.5
1
272537.9
1
2698299.2
0
2607639.1
92683759.7
32737219.5
0255
9523.5
5
Au
gust
473355.0
7
75810.5
2
96845.6
4
71
7671.7
5
746193.7
1
625761.2
9
698299.2
0
90660.0
1
14539.4
7
238920.3
0
13
8775.6
5
Se
ptem-
be
r
382695.0
5
214849.4
9
6185.6
2
62
7011.7
4
655533.7
0
535101.2
8
607639.1
9
290660.0
1
276120.5
42129580.3
1
4
8115.6
3
October
458815.6
0
61271.0
5
82306.1
7
70
3132.2
8
731654.2
4
611221.8
2
683759.7
3
214539.4
7
76120.5
4
253459.7
7
12
4236.1
8
No
vember
512275.3
7
114730.8
2
135765.9
3
75
6592.0
5
785114.0
1
664681.5
9
737219.5
0
38920.3
0
129580.3
1
53459.7
7
217
7695.9
4
De
cember
334579.4
2
262965.1
2
241930.0
1
57
8896.1
0
607418.0
7
486985.6
5
559523.5
52138775.6
5
248115.6
32124236.1
82177695.9
4
significantat5%
77
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people are spending less in order to save for the coming festive seasons ofChristmas, New Year, Chinese (Lunar) New Year and the Hari Raya(Muslim) festivals in December and January.
Month of the Year Effect on Bank Deposits
The results of the one-way ANOVA test on the month of the year ef-fects on commercial bank deposits are presented in Table 6. The p-valueof smaller than 5% level of significance indicates that there is evidence ofsignificant monthly seasonal effects on deposits.
This result can also be seen in the time series plot of the mean monthlydeposits in Figure 5.
A comparison of Figure 4 and Figure 5 reveals a great deal of similaritybetween the pattern of mean monthly withdrawals and mean monthly de-posits which is maximized in May and minimized in November.
78 JOURNAL OF ASIA-PACIFIC BUSINESS
FIGURE 2
Withdrawals Deposits
H0: mW, Monday = mW, Tuesday = ... = mW, Saturday
H1: Not all mW's are equal
Where
mW = average daily withdrawals
H0: mD, Monday = mD, Tuesday = ... = mD, Saturday
H1: Not all mD's are equal
Where
mD = average daily deposits
FIGURE 3
Withdrawals Deposits
H0: mW, January = mW, February = ... = mW, December
H1: Not all mW's are equal
Where
mW = average monthly withdrawals
H0: mD, January = mD, February = ... = mD, December
H1: Not all mD's are equal
Where
mD = average monthly deposits
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Balachander, Santha, and Shanmugam 79
TABLE 6. Summary of ANOVA Test Results for the Month of the Year Effect on
Deposits
Source Sum of Squares df Mean Square F-value p-value
Between Months 1.41181E+14 11 1.28347E+13 100.668 0
Within Months 3.59535E+13 282 1.27495E+11
Total 1.77135E+14 293
Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98
Month
RM
Mean MonthlyWithdrawals
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
FIGURE 4
Mean Monthly Deposits
Month
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
RM
Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-98Sep-98Oct-98 Nov-98
FIGURE 5
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Time of the Month Effect on Bank Withdrawals and Deposits
Finally, the third seasonal effect to be investigated in this study is thetime of the month effect on cash withdrawals and deposits. Each month isdivided into three time periods as shown below:
Since salaries and most bills are paid at the beginning of the month(first 10 days) large withdrawals can be expected at this time of the month.Similarly the deposits can also be expected to be high during the start of
the month as a result of receiving incomes during this period of time.By the end of the month, individuals would have gradually exhausted
their funds and hence banking activities can be expected to be low. In viewof this intuitive behavioral pattern the time of month effects on cash with-drawals and deposits are examined.
Time of the Month Effect on Bank Withdrawals
Table 7 presents the results of the ANOVA test for the time of montheffect on bank withdrawals. The results indicate a significant time ofmonth effect on withdrawals. The plot of the mean withdrawals for thethree time periods in Figure 6 indicates a sharp decline in withdrawals dur-
ing the middle of the month. The withdrawals are high during the end ofthe month because it is the period in which salaries are credited into onesaccount. However, the withdrawals would be much higher at the begin-ning of next month because the salaries are only credited towards the veryend of the month.
Time of the Month Effect on Bank Deposits
Table 8 presents the results of the ANOVA test for the time of themonth effects on bank deposits. The results indicate a significant time ofthe month effect on deposits. The plot of the mean deposits for the threetime periods, which is shown in Figure 5, indicates a sharp decline in de-posits during the middle of the month. This might imply that deposits aremade basically at the start and end of the month when salaries and receiv-
80 JOURNAL OF ASIA-PACIFIC BUSINESS
Start Middle End
First 10 days Next 10 days Last 10 days
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ables are collected. This is similar to the pattern observed for withdrawals(see Table 8 and Figure 7).
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
In line with developments taking place in Malaysia in relation to infor-mation technology and telecommunications, the behavioral patterns ofconsumers are changing towards being less cash oriented. This is clearlyindicated in the declining ratio of cash to demand deposits, which is usedas a proxy to measure the general demand for cash in the Malaysian econ-omy.
The study shows no significant statistical evidence to indicate that bankwithdrawals and deposits vary according to the day of the week. This basi-cally indicates that withdrawals in each day are rather similar. This is also
Balachander, Santha, and Shanmugam 81
TABLE 7. Summary of ANOVA Test Results for the Time of the Month Effect
on Withdrawals
Source Sum of Squares df Mean Square F-value p-value
Between Months 3.91672E+12 2 1.95836E+12 9.077 0
Within Months 6.27814E+13 291 2.15744E+11
Total 6.66981E+13 293
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
RM
Beginning Middle End
Time of the Month
Time of the Month Effect on Withdrawals
FIGURE 6
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true in the case of deposits. With regards to the month of the year effect,
both the withdrawals and deposits were found to exhibit similar signifi-cant trends with the largest amount of both withdrawals and deposits oc-curring in May. This coincides with the school holidays which appear inthis month.
Finally, in relation to the time of the month effect, both withdrawalsand deposits appear to be high at the beginning and end of the month.Moreover, these variations were found to be significant for both the casesof withdrawals and deposits. The above findings imply that commercialbanks daily cash flows are not uniform but do indicate systematic andregular fluctuations which can be traced and hence be used for predictivepurposes.
Now, the paper commenced with the assertion that rule of thumb blan-ket vault cash management policies would not be optimal, especially if thecommercial banks withdrawals and deposits are uncertain and exhibitsystematic variations or seasonal effects. In the presence of such seasonalvariations, a more dynamic forecasting model will be required for effi-cient vault cash management. Thus, by analyzing the seasonal variations
82 JOURNAL OF ASIA-PACIFIC BUSINESS
TABLE 8. Summary of ANOVA Test Results for the Time of the Month Effect
on Deposits
Source Sum of Squares df Mean Square F-value p-value
Between Months 4.57811E+12 2 2.28905E+12 3.86 0.022
Within Months 1.72557E+14 291 5.92978E+11
Total 1.77135E+14 293
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
RM
Time of the Month Effect on Deposits
Beginning Middle End
Time of Month
FIGURE 7
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in commercial banks withdrawals and deposits, this study has high-lighted the inadequacy of simple rule of thumb blanket vault cash manage-ment policies.
REFERENCES
1. Allen S. (1998), How Closely do Banks Manage Vault cash? Federal ReserveBank of St. Louis, Vol. 80, Issue 4, July/August, pp. 43-54.
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