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W (Continued on page 3) October 2010 www.naicir.com A publication of the Bill Gladstone Group of NAI CIR 1, 3-5 Cash vs. Installment Sale 2, 4-7 Featured Listings 8 Employment Woes Could Derail Global Recovery 717.761.5070 ext. 120 www.BillGladstone.com [email protected] In This Issue Cash vs. Installment Sale By Mark Heath From the Sales Desk When structuring a transaction, one major decision that comes into play is whether or not to structure the transaction as a straight cash sale, or to have payments made on an installment basis. A major reason why many sellers find an installment basis to be attractive is the deferral of the tax liability associated with the installment method. However, there are several factors to consider here, not the least of which are cash flow and risk of loss. No analysis is complete without considering all relevant information. First and foremost, the seller must determine whether or not he is able to finance the sale of an asset, and for how long. Cash flow modeling taking into account all pertinent information should help to conclude on this. Was the asset being sold a major income-producing asset? Unless the seller is in an excellent cash position, financing the sale may not be a viable option. Secondly, the seller should evaluate the risk that he is taking on in the financing. Proper due diligence must be performed in order to determine if the potential buyer is credit worthy. In turn for taking on the risk of financing, the seller may be able to demand a higher purchase price, or otherwise dictate the transaction in terms favorable to him. Once a seller has decided that structuring a transaction as an installment sale is attractive from a practical business standpoint, the tax considerations start to come into play. Generally, the installment Approximately 7,000 SF has been leased on the 2nd floor to BL Companies, an environmental engineering company for use as their regional offices. p LEASED The 5,310 SF building was sold for continued use as a small warehouse. It has excellent access to I-83 and will be rehabbed to the new buyer's specifications and used immediately. 801 S. 28th Street, Harrisburg p SOLD 4242 Carlisle Pike, Camp Hill

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W(Continued on page 3)

October 2010

www.naicir.com

A publication of the Bill Gladstone Group of NAI CIR

1, 3-5 Cash vs. Installment Sale

2, 4-7 Featured Listings

8 Employment Woes Could Derail Global Recovery

717.761.5070 ext. 120

www.BillGladstone.com

[email protected]

In This Issue

Cash vs. Installment Sale By Mark Heath

From the Sales Desk

When structuring a transaction, one major decision that comes into play is whether or not to structure the transaction as a straight cash sale, or to have payments made on an installment basis. A major reason why many sellers find an installment basis to be attractive is the deferral of the tax liability associated with the installment method. However, there are several factors to consider here, not the least of which are cash flow and risk of loss. No analysis is complete without considering all relevant information.

First and foremost, the seller must determine whether or not he is able to finance the sale of an asset, and for how long. Cash flow modeling taking into account all pertinent information should help to conclude on this. Was the asset being sold a major income-producing asset? Unless the seller is in an excellent cash position, financing the sale may not be a viable option.

Secondly, the seller should evaluate the risk that he is taking on in the financing.

Proper due diligence must be performed in order to determine if the potential buyer is credit worthy. In turn for taking on the risk of financing, the seller may be able to demand a higher purchase price, or otherwise dictate the transaction in terms favorable to him.

Once a seller has decided that structuring a transaction as an installment sale is attractive from a practical business standpoint, the tax considerations start to come into play. Generally, the installment

Approximately 7,000 SF has been leased on the 2nd floor to BL Companies, an environmental engineering company for use as their regional offices.

p LEASED

The 5,310 SF building was sold for continued use as a small warehouse. It has excellent access to I-83 and will be rehabbed to the new buyer's specifications and used immediately.

801 S. 28th Street, Harrisburg

p

SOLD

4242 Carlisle Pike, Camp Hill

2

NEW LISTINGS

p INVESTMENT SALE - 16 - 18 South 8th Street, Lebanon5,936 SF available in this 4 unit mixed-use building. Property was renovated extensively in 2005 to reflect high end finishes throughout. 1st floor occupied by Timeless Café. 2nd and 3rd floors feature large residential units with modern layouts. Ideal investment opportunity with solid cash flow and low maintenance. Bank owned property is priced for a quick sale.

Information concerning these offerings comes from sources deemed reliable, but no warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof, and they are submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price or other conditions, prior sale or lease, or withdrawal without notice. All sizes approximate. NAI CIR, 1015 Mumma Road, Wormleysburg, PA 17043 PA License #RB024320A

Commercial Real Estate Services, Worldwide.

CIR717.761.5070 l www.naicir.com

p COMMERCIAL SALE - Enola Road (Confidential)1,715 SF available on 1st floor. Successful turn-key bar and restaurant for sale with real estate and Cumberland County liquor license. Sale includes furniture, fixtures and equipment. Real estate consists of a mixed-use commercial building with 2nd floor apartment, a two car garage and large parking lot.

p COMMERCIAL SALE - 4330 W. Market Street, York1,300 SF available. Gas station/convenience store with 4 gas pumps plus one diesel pump available for sale. Located on Route 30, one of Central PA's busiest corridors, with exposure to over 32,000 vehicles per day. Competitively priced for a quick sale. Sale includes furniture, fixtures and equipment.

p COMMERCIAL LEASE - 225 Market Street, Harrisburg 70,000 SF available in mixed-use building in the heart of the City. Located across from the Whitaker Center for the Arts and Strawberry Square, a one million SF mixed-use complex. Harrisburg University and Messiah College are within 1 block. Retailers can capitalize on nearby student housing and daily work force foot traffic.

p COMMERCIAL LEASE/SALE - 5223-5225 Simpson Ferry Road, Mechanicsburg Ideal for an owner/user with 4,000 SF available. Excellent retail location across from Windsor Shopping Center and near East Gate Shopping Center. Tenants include Battery Warehouse, Miller's Racing Parts, Market Street Music, and Johansen Studios.

p INDUSTRIAL LEASE - 26 Hummel Ave., Suite A, Camp Hill2,352 SF available immediately in this new warehouse/storage utility building located in Lower Allen Township in Cumberland County.

method is tax advantageous for the seller, with very little tax impact to the buyer. The reason for this is that the taxable gain from the sale of the asset will be spread over the term of the financing. To be eligible for the installment method, at least one of the payments of the purchase price must be received in a tax year subsequent to the year of sale. When this is the case, there is no need to elect the installment method, as it automatically applies. There are instances where installment sale treatment does not apply (e.g. related party sales, dealer sales, sales of publicly traded stock), but as long as the property involved is sold at a gain, the installment sale should be an option. It should also be noted that the installment sale method is the default where deferred payments are involved, and the seller must elect out of the installment method in order to force straight cash sale treatment.

Now that it has been determined that a transaction is eligible for the installment method, the advantage related to the deferral of the taxable gain should be measured. Each deferred payment received is allocated ratably between basis recovery and taxable gain. The allocation will depend on the gross profit percentage, which is the ratio of the gross profit from the sale to the contract price. If the total purchase price is $100, and the seller’s tax basis is $25, the gain would be $75, and the gross profit percentage would equal 75%. Thus, 75% of each deferred payment would be taxable gain in the year received, and 25% would be nontaxable return of basis.

In example one (top of page), we are going to assume that an asset, the gain on which is eligible for long-term capital gains treatment, is sold for $200,000, and that the seller originally purchased the asset for $120,000. We will use an interest rate of 4%.

In example one, the net cash received after ten years is $216,600 and the total tax liability of $27,400 is spread out over the same time period. One might question the low interest rate. It is advantageous to the seller to maximize the purchase price, while minimizing the interest rate in order to take advantage of the reduced capital gains rate. However, income tax regulations require a minimum interest rate equal to

3

Cash vs. Installment Sale (Continued from page 1)

(Continued on page 4)

Principal Interest Capital Gain Tax Net Cash Year 1 $20,000 $8,000 $8,000 $4,000 $24,000

Year 2 $20,000 $7,200 $8,000 $3,720 $23,480

Year 3 $20,000 $6,400 $8,000 $3,440 $22,960

Year 4 $20,000 $5,600 $8,000 $3,160 $22,440

Year 5 $20,000 $4,800 $8,000 $2,880 $21,920

Year 6 $20,000 $4,000 $8,000 $2,600 $21,400

Year 7 $20,000 $3,200 $8,000 $2,320 $20,880

Year 8 $20,000 $2,400 $8,000 $2,040 $20,360

Year 9 $20,000 $1,600 $8,000 $1,760 $19,840

Year 10 $20,000 $800 $8,000 $1,480 $19,320 Total $200,000 $44,000 $80,000 $27,400 $216,600

Example 1 Sale Price $200,000 Cost Basis $120,000 Interest Rate 4% Term Length in Years 10 Gross Profit % 40% 2010 Maximum Ordinary 35% Income Tax Rate 2010 Capital Gains Rate 15%

Principal Interest Depreciation Recapture Capital Gain Tax Net Cash Year 1 $40,000 $8,000 $80,000 $16,000 $33,200 $14,800

Year 2 $40,000 $6,400 $0 $16,000 $4,640 $41,760

Year 3 $40,000 $4,800 $0 $16,000 $4,080 $40,720

Year 4 $40,000 $3,200 $0 $16,000 $3,520 $39,680

Year 5 $40,000 $1,600 $0 $16,000 $2,960 $38,640

Total $200,000 $24,000 $80,000 $80,000 $48,400 $175,600

Example 2a IRC Section 1245 Property Sale Price $200,000 Cost Basis $120,000 Accelerated Depreciation $80,000 Adjusted Basis $40,000 Interest Rate 4% Term Length in Years 5 Gross Profit % 40% 2010 Maximum Ordinary 35% Income Tax Rate 2010 Capital Gains Rate 15%

Information concerning these offerings comes from sources deemed reliable, but no warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof, and they are submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price or other conditions, prior sale or lease, or withdrawal without notice. All sizes approximate. NAI CIR, 1015 Mumma Road, Wormleysburg, PA 17043 PA License #RB024320A

Commercial Real Estate Services, Worldwide.

CIR717.761.5070 l www.naicir.com

4

Cash vs. Installment Sale (Continued from page 3)

the applicable federal rate, which has been floating around 4% for the 3rd quarter of 2010.

When a depreciable asset is sold, the tax answer changes. Any gain subject to accelerated depreciation recapture is taxed

at ordinary income tax rates, and is taxable in the year of sale (not subject to deferral). In the case of IRC §1245 property, this would equal all accelerated depreciation previously taken to the extent of the gain. IRC §1245 property generally includes all personal property (machinery and

equipment, computers, furniture) and other tangible property (except buildings and structural components of buildings) that has been used as an integral part of manufacturing, production, or extraction or as a means of furnishing transportation, communications, electrical energy, gas, water or sewage disposal services. For IRC §1250 property, the recapture would be the excess of any accelerated depreciation over straight-line depreciation to the extent of the gain. IRC §1250 property includes all real property (land and buildings) that is not IRC §1245 property, including intangible real property, such as a leasehold of land. Any remaining gain on IRC §1250 property caused by the remaining depreciation previously taken is ratably included in income and taxed at the unrecaptured 1250 gain rates (25% in 2010). Further gain is subject to capital gains rates, but only after all unrecaptured 1250 gain is included in income. This is illustrated in the charts within this article (all examples assume the asset was held by the seller for longer than 12 months). In cases where depreciable assets subject to accelerated depreciation are sold, the seller should require a significant payment in the first year in order to cover any tax liability, and to avoid a negative cash flow.

In each of these cases, the negotiated purchase price should be analyzed in order to determine whether or not the present value of future cash flows is sufficient to make the deal attractive. Interest and taxes must be included in the calculation so that a true cost vs. benefit analysis can be

(Continued on page 5)

INDUSTRIAL LISTINGS

p LEASE – 4425 Chambers Hill Road (Rear), Harrisburg11,600 SF functional and clean warehouse space. Space has 2 drive-in docks and a dock door. Large 3+ acre lot.

p LEASE – 2410 Gettysburg Road, Camp Hill33,600 SF freestanding warehouse building. Direct access to Route 15 and Route 581; provides quick connection to I-81, I-83, PA Turnpike and other major PA highways. 4 loading docks and 1 drive-in door and 16’ clear ceiling height.

"In cases where depreciable assets subject to accelerated depreciation are sold, the seller should require a significant

payment in the first year in order to cover any tax liability, and to avoid a negative cash flow."

Example 2b IRC Section 1250 Property Sale Price $200,000 Cost Basis $120,000 Accelerated Depreciation $100,000 Adjusted Basis $20,000 Straight Line Depreciation $80,000 Interest Rate 4% Term Length in Years 10 Gross Profit % 80% 2010 Maximum Ordinary Income Tax Rate 35% 2010 Unrecaptured 1250 Gain Rate 25% 2010 Capital Gains Rate 15%

Principal Interest Depreciation Recapture Unrecaptured 1250 Gain Capital Gain Tax Net Cash Year 1 $20,000 $8,000 $20,000 $16,000 $0 $13,800 $14,200

Year 2 $20,000 $7,200 $0 $16,000 $0 $6,520 $20,680

Year 3 $20,000 $6,400 $0 $16,000 $0 $6,240 $20,160

Year 4 $20,000 $5,600 $0 $16,000 $0 $5,960 $19,640

Year 5 $20,000 $4,800 $0 $16,000 $0 $5,680 $19,120

Year 6 $20,000 $4,000 $0 $0 $16,000 $3,800 $20,200

Year 7 $20,000 $3,200 $0 $0 $16,000 $3,520 $19,680

Year 8 $20,000 $2,400 $0 $0 $16,000 $3,240 $19,160

Year 9 $20,000 $1,600 $0 $0 $16,000 $2,960 $18,640

Year 10 $20,000 $800 $0 $0 $16,000 $2,680 $18,120 Total $200,000 $44,000 $20,000 $80,000 $80,000 $54,400 $189,600

Example 2b IRC Section 1250 Property Sale Price $200,000 Cost Basis $120,000 Accelerated Depreciation $100,000 Adjusted Basis $20,000 Straight Line Depreciation $80,000 Interest Rate 4% Term Length in Years 10 Gross Profit % 80% 2010 Maximum Ordinary Income Tax Rate 35% 2010 Unrecaptured 1250 Gain Rate 25% 2010 Capital Gains Rate 15%

performed.Taking example 1 (page 3), the present value of the net future cash flow (using 6%) of $216,600 is approximately $120,000. If the true fair market value of the asset in this case is $200,000, a straight cash sale using $200,000 as the purchase price would result in net cash of $188,000, significantly higher than the present value of the future cash flow shown in the example. Therefore, the seller would require a much higher purchase price for an installment sale in order to gain the same economic benefit. The same holds true for the other two examples. This does not take into account the other significant consideration in determining the purchase price on an installment sale, the risk being assumed by the seller.

One final item for immediate consideration is the potential increase in Federal income tax rates beginning in 2011. Effective January 1, 2011, the maximum Federal individual ordinary income tax rate will increase from 35% to 39.6%, and the long-term capital gain rate will increase from 15% to 20%. This will result in a substantial increase in the tax burden on

deferred payments, along with a drastic change to cash flow models. As a result, the installment sale method has become less attractive to sellers in 2010, and a higher purchase price for buyers is required. Many sellers are electing out of the installment sale method in order to lock in the lower long-term capital gain rate of 15%. Congress is currently considering extending the current income tax rates, however no change has been implemented as of the writing of this article.

When determining whether or not the installment sale method is preferable, there are many items to consider. Cash flow, risk, present and future income tax rates, and interest rates must all be evaluated extensively. This article is not meant to be inclusive of all tax rules related to installment sales, and alternative minimum tax is not considered. As with any transaction, a tax advisor should be consulted in order to determine what is best for you.

About the Author: Mark R. Heath, CPA joined McKonly & Asbury in 2004 as a Senior Tax Manager, became a Principal in 2007, and Partner in 2009. Serving as leader of the Tax Department, he brings a wealth of experience in Federal, State, and International Income and Franchise Tax issues for both Publicly and Privately Held Corporations, as well as Partnerships and LLCs. He most recently served as a Tax Manager for the Harrisburg office of an international firm. He continues his focus on superior tax service to the clients at McKonly & Asbury. You can contact him by e-mail at [email protected] or phone, 717.972.5755.

CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE

Federal regulations require that we notify

you that any tax advice contained in the body of

this communication (including attachments) was not

intended or written to be used, and cannot be used,

for the purpose of (i) avoiding penalties that may

be imposed under the Internal Revenue Code or (ii)

promoting, marketing or recommending to another

party any tax transaction or matter addressed herein.

5

(Continued from page 4)Cash vs. Installment Sale

COMMERCIAL LISTINGS

p LEASE - 105 S. Main Street, Biglerville1,568 SF repair garage with gas pumps. Situated at the corner of Route 394 and 34; approximately 6.5 miles from US 15. Ample on-site parking and storage for automobiles. Daily traffic count on Route 394: 2,282; Route 34: 5,736.

p SALE - 1701 N. Third Street, Harrisburg4,800 SF building in the expanding mid-town area. Redevelopment opportunity for mixed-use project. Located 2 blocks from the new HACC Midtown Campus and new 72,000 SF mixed-use Campus Square Building. Leasing incentive - $25,000 to buyer!

p SALE/LEASE - 640 S. Enola Drive, Enola1,700 SF freestanding building located on Route 11. Retail shop with 3 overhead doors and small office area. 12’ Clear ceiling height in front and 10’ in rear. Ample on-site parking. Average daily traffic count on Route 11 is 16,824. Also available for lease.

p LEASE - 5221 Simpson Ferry Road, Mechanicsburg 3,293 SF self-contained end unit. Surrounded by commercial and retail uses; neighbors two shopping centers. Convenient to US Route 15, Rossmoyne Business Center and PA Turnpike (I-76). On-site parking available. Zoning permits offices, personal services, studios, bakeries, florist and some light retail uses.

6 Information concerning these offerings comes from sources deemed reliable, but no warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof, and they are submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price or other conditions, prior sale or lease, or withdrawal without notice. All sizes approximate. NAI CIR, 1015 Mumma Road, Wormleysburg, PA 17043 PA License #RB024320A

Commercial Real Estate Services, Worldwide.

CIR717.761.5070 l www.naicir.com

OFFICE LISTINGS

p LEASE - 900 Century Drive, Mechanicsburg1,584 SF shell space; finished to suit tenant’s needs. 86 in-common parking spaces. Beautiful wraparound ribbon glass window lines and high-end finishes in the lobby. Great location for professional, medical and government office uses. Free Rent - 1 month per lease year.

p LEASE - 920 Linda Lane, Camp Hill3,700 SF nicely finished office suite. Located in the SWQ of the US Route 15 and PA Route 581 interchange with sign exposure to each highway. Property will be accessible from a full signalized intersection upon completion of US 15/PA 581 project. Abundant on-site parking in excess of 5 spaces per 1,000 SF.

p LEASE – 3780 Trindle Road, Camp HillUp to 1,526 SF of nicely finished office space available above Mountz Jewelers. Great visibility and excellent access to Route 581 and Route 15. On-site parking available. Competitive leasing rates.

p LEASE - 3401 N. Front Street, Harrisburg1,814-11,539 SF available in first class, prestigious, well-located building along Harrisburg’s River Front Park. Grand lobby with exquisite finishes: beautiful hardwood trim and encasings; all offices have accent windows, plenty of natural light and magnificent views from the top floor. Quick, easy access to full interchange of I-81. On-site parking available.

p LEASE - 3600 Vartan Way, Harrisburg27,500 SF available; subdivided from 2,300± SF. Recent renovations to the interior and exterior of the building. Quick access to I-81 and the Capital Beltway. 203 parking spaces on-site; all in common.

p LEASE – 4201 East Park Circle, Harrisburg10,890 SF available; can be subdivided to 3,826± SF. Upgraded interior and exterior; high end finishes throughout. High visibility and sign exposure to I-83. Free on-site parking in excess of 5 spaces per 1,000 SF.

p SALE- 2408 Park Drive, Harrisburg8,000 SF in this well-maintained office/warehouse flex building. Located in Commerce Park off Progress Avenue at the I-81 interchange with hotels, restaurants and shopping nearby. Nicely finished high-end office space. Clean, functional warehouse with dock door.

p LEASE - Cliffdale Office Park, Camp Hill3,330 SF available in professional office complex; 372 min. contiguous SF to 1,506 max. contiguous SF. On-site property manager. Immediate access to I-83 and PA Turnpike via exit 40B.

7Information concerning these offerings comes from sources deemed reliable, but no warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof, and they are submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price or other conditions, prior sale or lease, or withdrawal without notice. All sizes approximate. NAI CIR, 1015 Mumma Road, Wormleysburg, PA 17043 PA License #RB024320A

Commercial Real Estate Services, Worldwide.

CIR717.761.5070 l www.naicir.com

LAND LISTINGSLOCATION ACRES ZONING TYPE

5140 Jonestown Road & 4 Carolyn Street, Harrisburg, Dauphin County 1.23 Commercial General Sale

638 Alricks Street, Harrisburg, Dauphin County 1.32 Heavy Industry Sale

260 N. Hershey Road, Harrisburg, Dauphin County 1.57 Commercial Sale

Milroy & Grayson Roads, Lot 16, Hummelstown, Dauphin County 1.92 Manufacturing District Sale

Wildwood Park Drive, Harrisburg, Dauphin County 2± Commercial (good restaurant site) Sale

East Cumberland Street (Route 422), Lebanon, Lebanon County 2.2 Commercial Sale

NEC of Hockersville Road & W. Areba Ave., Hershey, Dauphin County 2.77 Downtown Commercial District Sale

St. Johns Road, Camp Hill, Cumberland County 3.05 Commercial/Office Sale

Lena Drive, Lot 15, Mechanicsburg, Cumberland County 6.92 Planned Business Center District Sale

Route 22 & Route 39, Harrisburg, Dauphin County 7.7 (6 lots) Commercial Highway/Office Sale

Eisenhower Blvd., Harrisburg, Dauphin County 10± General Commercial Sale

7700 Derry Street, Harrisburg, Dauphin County 15.51 (8 lots) Commercial Sale

(NWQ) N. Union Street & Route 441, Middletown, Dauphin County 24.82 Commercial Sale

New Listing - Harrisburg Street (Route 441), Harrisburg, Dauphin County 27.2 Commercial Sale

100 N. Hershey Road, Harrisburg, Dauphin County 34± Neighborhood Commercial Sale

Rose Hill Farm, Gettysburg Pike, Dillsburg, York County 47.01 Residential Suburban-2 Sale

1235 S. Market Street, Elizabethtown, Borough of Elizabethtown 1.31 Commercial General Sale/Lease

Milroy & Grayson Roads, Lot 17, Hummelstown, Dauphin County 1.72 Manufacturing District Sale/Lease

6325 Chelton Avenue, Harrisburg, Dauphin County 3.75 Business Campus Sale/Lease

1282 S. Market Street #Lot 2, Elizabethtown, Lancaster County 1.0 Commercial Lease

US Route 11 & PA Turnpike, Lots 4-5, Carlisle, Cumberland County 1.54 & 1.38 Commercial Lease

Route 11 & PA Turnpike, Carlisle, Cumberland County 2.66 Commercial Highway Lease

1205 Harrisburg Pike, Carlisle, Cumberland County 2.72 Commercial Highway & Residential Lease

New Listing - 4141 Linglestown Road, Harrisburg, Dauphin County 4.0 Commercial Lease

Stoverdale Road & Middletown Road, Hummelstown, Dauphin County 5.0 Neighborhood Commercial Lease

Pennsylvania LandmarkThe Emmanuel Episcopal Church is considered by some to be one of Pittsburgh's most important architectural landmarks. Built in 1885, the church has been declared a National Historic Landmark. It was designed by the 19th century's master architect Henry Hobson Richardson, who also designed the Allegheny County Courthouse. Noted for fine brickwork, it is nicknamed "The Bake Oven Church," because of its brick-bake oven shape. The walls bulge slightly from the weight of its steep roof. While the selection of brick was doubtless for reasons of economy, the brickwork is one of the church’s most appealing features. Unlike most of his buildings, Emmanuel Episcopal’s wall surfaces do not have a rough surface, moldings, belt courses or other projections to break up the planes or produce shadow lines. (The bricks do project from the main wall surface just below the eave line. This is accomplished in two steps of different dimension to give a pleasing string course effect.) Stone is used only as sills for the windows, as springing for the three entrance arches and where the foundation is exposed. Source: http://www.wikipedia.org/

PRESORTED STANDARDU.S. POSTAGE PAID

Harrisburg, PAPermit No. 783

BILL GLADSTONE, CCIM, SIOR

NAI CIRP.O. Box 8910Camp Hill, PA 17001-8910PHONE: 717.761.5070FAX: 717.975.0752www.naicir.comwww.BillGladstone.com

looking for much greater clarity on several fronts. Investment markets appear healthier than they were at mid-2009. However, a general lack of available supply in the most targeted market segments continues to frustrate investors that have raised capital but remain in extended holding patterns in their pursuit of attractive opportunities.

Overall sales transaction volume in the US is running at a pace 45% to 50% above comparable 2009 levels. As deal pipelines continue to grow, the pace is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. Full-year 2010 transaction volumes may increase by two-thirds over 2009’s very depressed level. Yields have compressed for core product in

first-tier markets, leading to increases in capital values, and in distressed asset sales, there are modest signs of growth as some lenders lose patience with the most severely delinquent and overleveraged borrowers.

Leasing markets are still generally working their way toward absolute market bottom and continue to trail the capital markets into the recovery phase. In the leading gateway markets, a noticeable rental bounce off of cyclical lows may be developing for prime product. However, rents in the majority of markets are likely to come under continued slight to modest downward pressure as the recovery proves fitful.

The outlook for real estate fundamentals in 2011 will be largely dependent on the trajectory of employment growth, particularly in the US. Should the private sector begin producing broad-based and consistently strong job gains, then all major sectors will benefit. What is certain is that low interest rates, at least into early 2011, will be of short-term benefit to the capital markets, as investor interest deepens and begins to widen, and the lending markets continue to loosen. Nevertheless, there remains a tremendous amount of distressed property that casts a shadow over much of the industry and poses risks depending on how lender behavior evolves with respect to overleveraged property on their books. Finally, without corresponding improvements in the underlying demand for space, the investment markets for top-tier real estate run the risk of having rebounded too far, too fast.

Steve Collins is the Washington, DC-based managing director of Jones Land LaSalle’s International Capital Group. He may be contacted at [email protected]. The views expressed here are the author’s own. Source: Real Estate Forum, www.reforum.com

Employment Woes Could Derai l Global Recovery

By Steve Collins

The global property markets at the prime end have shown some improvement in response to the gradual healing of both the world economy and the credit markets. In the US, the story remains one of steady improvement, increasing availability of capital and a continuing flow of deals to market. Commercial property markets in the Americas have passed their greatest point of decline, but are currently