caspian sea region and oil
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Caspian Sea Region and Oil. A modern Silk Road or The next conflict zone?. Caspian Sea Region-Historical Background. Mongol Empire. Spread of Islam. Ottoman Empire. The Caucasus. Chechnya. Conflict in Chechnya. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Caspian Sea Region and Oil
A modern Silk Road or
The next conflict zone?
Caspian Sea Region-Historical Background
Mongol Empire
Spread of Islam
Ottoman Empire
The Caucasus
Chechnya
Conflict in Chechnya• mid 19th Century: mid Caucasian wars with
Russian Empire. 50 years to subdue Chechens• Sufism• Bolshevik Revolution: promised autonomy• Soviets: NOT. 1944: 100,000 Chechens (along
with 7 other ethnic groups deported to Kazakstan)• Repression of Islam in USSR, but not in Chechny• Wahhabism-linked to Bin Laden• 1994-1996 war: stalemate• 1999: war resurfaces due to bombings in Moscow
(politically determined?)– Young Russian conscripts– Enormous devistation and ruthlessness by Russia
Russia invades Chechnya
Grozny, Chechnya after 1999-2000 bombing
Russia’s motivation for persistence
• Nationalism– 1st domino in potential string of secessions:
• Dagestan, Ingushetia, Osettia, Tatarstan in north
• Fear of Islamic world– Would allow development of another Islamic state on
its frontier
– Wahhabism and political Islams
• Oil: – Oil + Gas= 40% of Russian export value
– = 44% of gov’t revenues
“Georgia’s always on my, my, my, my, my ,my, my, my, my…. mind”
Pankisi Gorge
Armenia/Azerbaijan
Iran
Iran
• Shah of Iran: 1941-1979– Some reforms in education, land redistribution,
development etc. but also increasing disparities in wealth from oil, supported by US
– SAVAK and repression of opposition
• Overthrow by Ayatollah Khomeini-led fundamentalists (Shiite Muslim)-authoritarian return to tradition and repression
• Allied with Russia over anti-Americanism and US relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
• Enemy of US: Oil companies forbidden to do business here. Sanctions
Russian Empire (amidst the “Great Game”)
USSR
Soviet Russia Policy: The “Stans”
• 1921: USSR did not want 1 Turkestan policy
• Broke the area up into 5 republics: – Kazakstan– Turkmenistan– Uzbekistan– Tajikistan– Kyrgistan
“Turkestan”
Soviet Political Tactics to maintain Peace in the ‘Stans
• Heavily Russified (especially Kazakstan)• Also Russianized:
– cyrillic script and Russian culture– Repression of religion, especially Islam here
• Destruction of mosques and schools• These went underground
• Soviet and Nationalistic identity--not Cossack—forced end of pastoralism—”we have borders”
• Disrupted economy: pastoralism soviet industrial agriculture environmental destruction
• Elites supported Communism—handpicked local loyal soviet apparatchiks
• Divided territory strategically-Fergana valley
Fergana Valley
Independence 1991—6 Big challenges1. Political
• These are monarchies, not democracies –”illiberal democracies”– Autocratic leaders, almost kings-– Elections not free– Turkmenistan most autocratic– Uzbekistan repression of opponents of leader
Karimov– Hunger strike in Kyrgistan
• All members of former Communist elites• Weak state: little power, prestige, capability• Corruption
Corruption index
2. Economic challenges
• Economic decline– Loss of Soviet Markets– Dramatic decline in economy after1992
• Weak infrastructure: dirt roads, no roads– Landlocked: depend on Russian goodwill for
access
• Low foreign investment
3. Islamic Challenge
• Area is not Islamic fundamentalist, yet it is reviving– Turkistanis are not formally religious; only 20% attend
mosque-yet Islam is a daily part of their lives
• Social/political movement at grassroots/people sick of corruption, poverty
• Promoted from Iran/Afghanistan
4. External interests
• Russia: wants traditional economic links and control, but is worried about radical Islam
• Iran-has religious/political/economic ties, especially to Tajikistan
• Turkey: religious/Turkic speaking, pro-West• China: economic/political connections: worried
about its border• US: OIL
5. Lack of Nationalism?
• Missed opportunity in 1917– 1917-1924: ethnic movements got foothold in
other places for nationalist incubation (Baltics, Serbia)
– Regional identity (Turkestan) rather than national or ethnic ones
– Still, trying to engage in national building, but this is hard because top down movements don’t work
6. Regional Security and Cooperation
• “Bishkek 6”: Kyrgistan, Kazakstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, China, Russia– Promote regional economic cooperation– Build up armed forces in Cental Asia– Confine Taliban to Afghanistan– Oppose IMU(Islamic Movement for
Uzbeckistan) and allies– Control oil/gas routes (worried about US
interest in oil)
Kazakstan
• Extremely repressive gov
• Passive electorate
• Huge potential oil wealth: 30 bbls
• Large Russian pop in north
Uzbekistan
• 30 million people– (v. 15 million Kazakstan, 5 million
Turkmenistan)
• Famous Islamic religious and historical sites– Samarkand, Tashkent
• Most militant islamist group: IMU trying to overthrow gov; suffered in war against Taliban
• US Airbase (also Kyrgistan)
Samarkand
Tashkent
Tajikistan
• Different than other Central Asian countries– Settled, Iranian language
• 1991: weak regime backed by Moscow as buffer against Afghanistan1992-1996: civil war: Pro-Russians Tajiks v. non-Islamic Tajik minorities/Uzbeks– 50000 killed, 1 million refugees
• 1996: ceasefire Tajik(70%) % Islamists (30%)• Russia worried about this—troops on border• Russia supports president with 96% of vote
The The “Great Game” Lineup
• Russia: Armenia, Kazakstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgistan, (Iran)
• West/US: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Turkey, (Troops in Uzbek and Kyrg; wargames in Kazak)
• China: Kazakstan (economic)
• Iran: Turkmenistan, Kazakstan
Shatterbelt (Cohen 1973)
• Complex ethnic/cultural mosaic
• Location of global resource
• History of local conflicts
• Attracts interests of world powers
• Global-local alliances• Potential for major extra-regional conflicts
(could spill over) Islamic Scenarios
“Black Gold”
3 Oil Scenarios
• Gulf States Model: (Azerbaijan)– Wealth for elites: no industrial diversification, import and
exploit workers; no democracy, control by consortiaum of western oil companies and local political oligarchs
• Indonesian Model: (Kazakstan) – VERY UNSTABLE; huge deposits, strategic location,
diverse ethnicities, rising expectation (delusions of grandeur), attempts at MNC investment; corrupt repressive dictatorship, high unemployment, huge military expense, boom-bust scenario
• Nigerian Model: (Uzbekistan) – destruction of traditional society, state has expropriated
everything for oil, oil destroyed existing economy and culture, oil exports army and repression, ethnic conflict