catastrophe plan: how to handle it easly

C A T A S T R O P E P L A NWhat we can do in case of a general emergency

C A T A S T R O P E P L A N- W H A T W E C A N D O I N C A S E O F A G E N E R A L E M E R G E N C Y -

Table of ContentsABSTRACT.........................................................................................................................4

Introduction..........................................................................................................................5Definition of Catastrophe................................................................................................5About the Logo...............................................................................................................5Types of catastrophe......................................................................................................5

Catastrophe plan.................................................................................................................10Forecast.........................................................................................................................11Alarm signals................................................................................................................11

The Long Crisis scenario...................................................................................................13Preparation....................................................................................................................16

know what to do during a disaster.....................................................................................21General Supply Kit........................................................................................................24

Action.................................................................................................................................28Short (one week)...........................................................................................................28Medium (one Month)....................................................................................................28Long (one Year)............................................................................................................28Permanent (more Years)...............................................................................................29

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DOCUMENT INFORMATIONS

HISTORYSNIP

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ABSTRACTIn the present historical situation of a globalized World with increasing complexity, thepossibility of emergency must be considered.

Having instruments for manage crises is the base to look at any future with optimism.

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IntroductionThis document was created starting on 2005 to address in a rational way practical questions related to a possible global failure, has been published on the forum http://www.projectavalon.net. on September 2008.

Definition of CatastropheIn this document we define a Catastrophe as:“ a special Event involving an great amount of energy that break the daily life of communities for a period of time. This provokes consequences that we consider undesirableness“The event can be a Environmental disasters (e.g. Earthquake, Epidemic, Famine, Flood, Forest fire, Heat wave, Hurricanes, tropical cyclones, Tsunami), a Societal disasters (e.g. Pandemics ...), Geopolitical (e.g. Wars), Economics (e.g. oil price shocks).

About the LogoSNIP

Types of catastropheThe following types of emergency are defined in the 2006 version of (1)

Economic Risks Likelihood Severity

China• Short-term Base: Careful management of integration into global economy 3 1• Short-term Worst: Re-emergent protectionism in the rest of the world, hitting China's exports2 2• Long-term Base: Successful modernization and integration 2 2• Long-term Worst: Social and economic dislocation 2 3

US Current Account Deficit• Short-term Base: Current account deficit causes 20% depreciation of US$ 2 3• Short-term Worst: Current account deficit causes 40% depreciation of US$ 1 4 <= we are here• Long-term Base: Gradual balancing of accounts 3 3 g• Long-term Worst: Unsustainable deficits impact growth 2 4 g

Hedge Funds• Short-term Base: Fraction of start-up hedge funds fail below threshold 4 Falls• Short-term Worst: Individual large hedge funds fail 2 1 • Long-term Base: Fraction of start-up hedge funds fail 3 1 • Long-term Worst: Market crash hits several funds 1 2

Oil Price Shock

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http://www.projectavalon.ne/


• Short-term Base: 12-month spike to US$ 80/bl 4 3• Short-term Worst: 12-month spike to US$ 100/bl 1 4 <= we are here• Long-term Base: Supply constraint leads to gradual price increase1 2• Long-term Worst: Steeper sustained price increases 2 3

Critical Information Infrastructure (CII)• Short-term Base: European power outage 3 2 <= we are here• Short-term Worst: Transatlantic data blackout 1 3• Long-term Base: Attack on IT infrastructure 3 1• Long-term Worst: Coordinated extensive attacks on wireless infrastructure using electromagnetic pulses 1 3

Environmental Risks Likelihood Severity

Tropical Cyclones: North Atlantic Hurricane● Short-term Base: Category 3 hurricane hits modestly populated area 3 1● Long-term Base: Severity and frequency of storms stays at 2005 level 3 1● Long-term Worst: Severity and frequency of storms increases 2 3

Societal Risks Likelihood Severity

Pandemics• Short-term Base: Pathogenic avian virus H5N1 spreads, low human mortality 2 4• Short-term Worst: Pathogenic avian virus H5N1 spreads, high human mortality 2 4• Long-term Base: Pathogenic avian virus H5N1 spreads, radical advances in vaccine development 2 2• Long-term Worst: Pathogenic avian virus H5N1 spreads, several recombinations appear 1 4

Developing World Disease: Spread of HIV/AIDS and TB Epidemics• Short-term Base: New infections of 5m in 2006 4 4• Short-term Worst: Rapid growth in incidence outside sub-Saharan Africa 2 4• Long-term Base: Incidence flattens, deaths remain high 3 4 g• Long-term Worst: Incidence flattens in sub-Saharan Africa but expands rapidly elsewhere 3 4

Liability Regimes● Short-term Base: 10% capacity loss for insurers US insurance costs triple; 3 1● Short-term Worst: 25% capacity loss; suspension of US high-risk insurance 2 2● Long-term Base: Decline of insurance; rise of deep-pocket liability in Europe and US 2 2● Long-term Worst: Collapse of property and casualty insurance industry1 3

Regulation● Short-term Base: Little change in regulation expectations, or economic activity Falls below threshold, 4 ● Short-term Worst: Regulatory pressures; rapid decrease in corporate activity 3 2● Long-term Base: Centrist future supports commercial freedom Falls below threshold4 ● Long-term Worst: Populist realignment undermines corporate activity 2 2

Corporate Governance● Short-term Base: Only small-scale governance failures below threshold 4 Falls● Short-term Worst: Major governance failure undermines confidence 2 2● Long-term Base: Only small-scale governance failures 3 Falls below threshold● Long-term Worst: Major corporate governance failures 3 2

Organized Crime: Counterfeiting

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● Short-term Base: Costs and benefits largely matched 4 1 g● Short-term Worst: Sharpening US/China dispute on rules of trade 2 2● Long-term Base: Rising deaths from counterfeit medicines and undermining of public trust3 3● Long-term Worst: Increased vulnerability of IT networks and aggregate GWP reduction gg1 4

Geopolitical Risks Likelihood SeverityMiddle East Stability

• Short-term Base: Precarious stability 3 1• Short-term Worst: Escalating violence 2 3 g <= we are here• Long-term Base: Precarious stability, structural weakness remains 3 1• Long-term Worst: Widespread violent conflict 2 3•

Hotspot: Iran• Short-term Base: Continuation of conflict over nuclear programme 3 1 <= we are here• Short-term Worst: Open nuclear defiance 1 3• Long-term Base: Nuclear compromise 3 1• Long-term Worst: Aggressive nuclear posture 2 3

Hotspot: Iraq• Short-term Base: Tenuous stability and partial economic recovery 3 2• Short-term Worst: Civil war 1 3 <= we are here• Long-term Base: Tenuous stability and partial reconstruction of infrastructure 2 2• Long-term Worst: Disintegration 2 3 g

Hotspot: Saudi Arabia• Short-term Base: Oil revenues preserve status quo 3 1• Short-term Worst: Increased pressure on the Kingdom's governance structure 1 2 <= we are here• Long-term Base: Successful balancing of external and domestic challenges 2 1• Long-term Worst: Stability of the Kingdom severely undermined 1 3

European Dislocation• Short-term Base: Stagnation and reform resistance 3 2 g • Short-term Worst: Economic crisis in large member state 2 2 g <= forecast 2009• Long-term Base: Gradual decline of economic competitiveness 2 2• Long-term Worst: Radical economic and political upheaval in Europe 3 2

Hotspot: Korea• Short-term Base: Fragile status quo preserved 2 1 g• Short-term Worst: North Korea tests nuclear weapon 1 3• Long-term Base: North Korea’s nuclear programme contained 2 1• Long-term Worst: North Korea's nuclear test triggers arms race, internal disintegration 2 3

International Terrorism• Short-term Base: Attacks continue at 2004-5 frequency and intensity 4 1• Short-term Worst: Simultaneous conventional attacks worldwide 1 4• Long-term Base: Terrorism continues to be a threat, yet is largely contained 3 1

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• Long-term Worst: Non-conventional attack in major city 2 4

We arbitrary divide possible catastrophe in 4 time (the “period of time”) magnitude groups:

● Short (around one week)● Medium (around one Month)● Long (around one Year)● Enduring (more Years)

4 spacial (the “communities”) magnitude groups● Regional● National● Continental● World wide

so that we have 16 possible classes of catastrophes C1 ... C16 as shown in the table below:

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Drawing 1: Major Types of risks and systemic relationship.


Short Medium Long Enduring

Regional 1 2 3 4

National 5 6 7 8

Continental 9 10 11 12

world wide 13 14 15 16

Table 1: Catastrophe index

Notice that the number indicate the amount of energy - required to provoke/involved in - the catastrophically event.In a linked world processes of positive feedback can transform one catastrophe started in from a class 1 to a class 16.

Example:Taking a terroristic attack (class 1) as a reason The US decided to stop Iran nuclear program by bombing the all nuclear plants (class 5). As a result the oil price spikes over $150 (class 13).This provoke a Major governance failure undermining confidence in capitalistic system (class 14). Wallstreet breaks bringing the oil price to 200$. World economic collapse (class 15). Enduring state of chaos (class 16).

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Catastrophe planThis plan considers 3 steps:

● Forecast● Preparation ● Action

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Forecast

Forecast is essential for successfully prepare and affront an emergency.Social forecasting is still in infancy.

Because such instruments are high expensive not available to the general public new ones are required.

● OBSERVATIONObservations including Home pages, catastrophe Bond, newspapers, Mailing list, and books are the basis for all forecast and warning products issued by this system. Quality, quantity, and timeliness of observations are critical for accurate and timely forecasts and warnings.

● ANALYSISThe various observations are checked for quality, analyzed, and put into a model.

● MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTERPRETATIONThe model should take in the observations the alarm signals, and generate predictions of possible catastrophe trends behavior . The model results are consolidate as guidance for Meta community(Europe, North america) and local community and for evaluation and use in the community forecast and warning process.

● Forecast GENERATIONOnce the coordination and collaboration process reaches group consensus, the issuing group generate forecast and warning for release to the Key Project members.

● Forecast DisseminationTimely and reliable dissemination of forecasts and warnings is critical to the protection of life and property. Key forecast Project members take care of create communication chain for they projects.

Alarm signalsFor each of the systems pains described in drawing 1 an alarm signal is defined:

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System Stress Alarm symptom

Oil price shock/energy supply ● Oil over 100 $● wall street crash

fall in US$ ● 1 € > 1.5 $● 1 € > 2 $

Pandemics Over 50 death/week

Supply Chain failure shortage of basic wares in western supermarket

Stagflation Inflaction over 10%negative growt >= 1%

Intestate war ● Major conflict in middle east

Table 2: alarm symptom

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The Long Crisis scenarioThe long crise scenario describes the most probable sequence of systemic failure.

1. The peak of oil is reach2. the oil prices skyrocket3. as result of the oil energy prices much companies are not able to drive business

and close the activities.4. Word wide financial crash.5. A period of Stagflation begins: a combination of high inflation and inflation.6. High energy prices make the globalization to expensive: strategies begins to

concentrate on “core national business”. Retrenchment from globalization.7. Companies that are high dependent from oil fail.8. The economical crise produce unemployment that provokes internal tensions

(mass demonstrations). 9. The internal tension is outsourced. An external enemy is found (the terrorists, the

outsiders, the Arabs, the foreigners and minorities in general).10. Repression. Democratic guaranties are suppressed. Every dissident become an

enemy.11. Oil & resources war: to keep the control of resources states starts to fight each

others.12. War boost the economy for a short term. In the middle term its consumes and

destroy more resources.13. General Failure of the social structure.14. Grid's Collapse. Electric energy No more generally available.

This process is an estimation of the possible sequence, not a prophecy.

Below an activity diagram that illustrates the above scenario.

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14Illustration 1: long crise scenario


Preparation

The most important thing that you can do is to be informed and prepared. Disaster prevention includes both being prepared as well as reducing damages (mitigation).

Disaster Prevention should include:

• Developing a Family Plan • Creating a Disaster Supply Kit • Having a Place to Go • Securing your Home

• DEVELOP A FAMILY PLAN - Your family's plan should be based on your vulnerability to the emergency. You should keep a written plan (like this one) and share your plan with other friends or family.

• CREATE A DISASTER SUPPLY KIT - There are certain items you need to have regardless of where you ride out a hurricane. The disaster supply kit is a useful tool when you evacuate as well as making you as safe as possible in your home.

• HAVING A PLACE TO GO – depending on the type of emergency you can decide to leave your home. In this case is important to have a prepared place.

• SECURE YOUR HOME - There are things that you can do to make your home more secure and able to withstand an emergency or long period of absence.

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/retrofit/secure_home.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/prepare/supply_kit.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/prepare/family_plan.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/retrofit/secure_home.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/prepare/place_to_go.shtml




The FAMILY PLAN ● Discuss the type of hazards that could affect your family. Prepare your

family to the emergency with a calm discussion.

● Decide what to do with pets

Emergency Training

● Do a practical training of the emergency.

● Simulate the different scenarios.

LOCAL Emergency C 1-4

● Know your home's vulnerability to physical attacks, storm surge, flooding and wind.

● Locate a safe room or the safest areas in your home for each local hazard. In certain circumstances the safest areas may not be your home but within your community.

Escape routes C 5 +

● Determine escape routes from your home and places to meet with the community. These should be measured in tens of Km rather than hundreds of Km.

● Make sure that you have alternate travel options for evacuation in the event of a pandemic and panic.

● Make a plan now for what to do with your pets if you need to evacuate.

Communication

● Use a radio (see below). Remember to replace its battery every 6 months. Even better use a man power system.

● Have an out-of-state friend as a family con

● tact, so all your community have a single point of contact.

● Post emergency telephone numbers by your phones and make sure your community know how and when to call emergency.

Legals

● Make sure that your identification papers (including photos) are up to date so that you do not have problems at checkpoints. Make extra photos.

● Check your insurance coverage - flood damage is not usually covered by homeowners insurance.

● Consider getting a passport.

● Stock non-perishable emergency supplies and a Disaster Supply Kit.

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http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/prepare/pet_plan.shtml



Disaster inner Kit

● Take care of your own spiritual life so that you do not face a spiritual crisis in the event of calamity, disease, death, and can focus on helping yourself and others.

● Get a physical examination so that you know your current health.

● Get in good physical shape, be strong and well rested.

● Mend your social relationships so that you don’t have anything hanging and you know how you can rely on and who you need to care for.

● Take First Aid and disaster preparedness classes.

● Be comfortable leading and commanding others. Practice interacting with people as equals, submitting to the instructions of superiors, and commanding others so they might likewise obey.

● Have what you would need so that you would feel that you are spending your down-time meaningfully, such as books, musical instruments, art materials. Be ready and able to entertain others.

● Tell your family what you know about the situation. Be honest but gentle. Encourage children to talk about the coming disaster. Encourage them to ask questions about the coming disaster.

EXPECT emotional REACTIONS

You won’t “act like yourself” for a whileMost people caught in a disaster usually feel confused. They may tremble, feel numb, vomit or faint.Immediately after the disaster they often feel bewildered, shocked, and relieved to be alive. These feelings and reactions are perfectly normal.Later many survivors sleep poorly, have no appetite, are angry with those around them, or panic at the slightest hint of a storm. Children might start thumb sucking or bed wetting. These feelings and reactions are perfectly normal too.

How to get back on trackHere are some suggestions to help get yourself and your family back on track after the disaster.Talk about your feelings. Talk about what’s happened.Encourage your children to express their feelings. They may want to do this by drawing or playing instead of talking.Understand that their feelings are real. Recognize that when you suffer a loss, you may grieve. (Yes, you can grieve the loss of a wedding photo or your grandfather’s favourite ring.) You may feel apathetic or angry. You may not sleep or eat well. These are normal grief reactions. Do give yourself and your family permission to

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grieve and time to heal.

How to help your childrenChildren exposed to a disaster can experience a variety of intense emotional reactions such as anxiety, fear, nervousness,stomachaches, loss of appetite and other reactions.These are normal and temporary reactions to danger. Parents can help relieve such reactions by taking their children’s fears seriously, by reassuring them, giving them additional attention and hugging them.

A CHILD WHO FEELS AFRAID IS REALLY AFRAIDAfter a disaster, children are most afraid that:• the event will happen again,• someone will get hurt or injured,• they will be separated from the family, or• they will be left alone.

So comfort and reassure them.

Give them a real task to do, something that gets the family back on its feet.Keep them with you, even if it seems easier to look for housing or help on your own. At a time like this it’simportant for the whole family to stay together.

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DISASTER SUPPLY KITThe disaster supply kit consist in material that you can make available in max 1 hour.Every family member should have a small bag (back bag preferred).This is the minimal kit.See further chapter for a more complete one.

● Water - 1. at least 5 liters daily per person for 9 days at home.2. at least 2 liters daily per person for 9 days if you decide to move.3. Water filter

● Food - at least enough for 9 days1. non-perishable packaged or canned food / juices2. foods for infants or the elderly3. snack foods4. non-electric can opener5. cooking tools / Gas6. paper plates / plastic utensils

● FUEL: have a complete fill prepared in tanks.

● Outdoor set○ Tent○ sleep bag

● Clothing - seasonal / rain gear/ sturdy shoes● First Aid Kit / Medicines / Prescription Drugs

○ Blankets / Pillows, etc.● Special Items - for babies and the elderly● Toiletries / Hygiene items / Moisture wipes

● Toys, Books and Games: one item each family component

● Important documents - in a waterproof container or watertight resealable plastic bag

● insurance, medical records, bank account numbers, Social Security card, etc.

● Keys● Cash - Banks and ATMs may not be open or available for extended

periods● Tools - keep a set with you during the emergency

● knives ● Flashlight / Batteries● Radio - Battery operated ● Whistle -in case you need to attract someone’s attention●

● Vehicle fuel tanks filled● Pet care items

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know what to do during a disasterHERE ARE SOME BASIC PROCEDURES FOR SPECIFIC DISASTERS that can happens during the next time.

DURING A TORNADOIf you are in a buildingGo to the basement immediately. If there isn’t one, crouch or lie flat (under heavy furniture) in an inner hallway or small inner room or stairwell away from windows.Stay away from large halls, arenas, shopping malls, etc. (their roofs could collapse).

If you are caught outsideIf there is no shelter, lie down in a ditch or ravine, protecting your head.

If you are drivingGet out of and away from the car.It could be blown through the air, or roll over on you.Lie down as above.

DURING A POWER FAILURETurn the thermostat(s) down to minimum and turn off all appliances, electronic equipment and tools to prevent injury, damage to equipment and fire. Power can also be restored more easily when the system is not overloaded.Use proper candleholders. Never leave lit candles unattended.

Home generators are handy for backup electricity for a while in case of an outage, but there are hazards tobe aware of.To operate a generator safely, follow the manufacturer’s instructions, and always:• Ensure that the generator operates outdoors in wellventilated conditions, well away from doors or windows.• Connect lights and appliances directly to the generator. If extension cords must be used, ensure they are properly rated,Direct installation of a generator to an existing electrical system should only be done by a qualified technician.

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Have a place to go

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Develop a family catastrophe preparedness plan before an actual emergency

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Illustration 2: place and risks


● If ordered to evacuate, do not wait or delay your departure. If possible, leave before local officials or mass media issue an evacuation order for your area. Even a slight delay in starting your evacuation will result in significantly longer travel times as traffic congestion worsens.

● Select an evacuation destination that is nearest to your home, or at least minimize the distance over which you must travel in order to reach your intended shelter location. In choosing your destination, keep in mind that the hotels and other sheltering options in most inland metropolitan areas are likely to be filled very quickly in a large, national emergency evacuation event.

● If you decide to evacuate to another region, be prepared to wait in traffic. The large number of people in this region who must evacuate during a catastrophe will probably cause massive delays and major congestion along most designated evacuation routes;

the larger the emergency, the greater the probability of traffic jams and extended travel times.

If possible, make arrangements to stay with the friend or relative who resides closest to your home and who will not have to evacuate.

Discuss with your intended host the details of your family evacuation plan well before the beginning.

● If a hotel or motel is your final intended destination during an evacuation, make reservations before you leave. Most hotel and motels will fill quickly once evacuations begin. The longer you wait to make reservations, even if an official evacuation order has not been issued for your area or county, the less likely you are to find hotel/motel room vacancies, especially along highways and in major metropolitan areas.

● If you are unable to stay with friends or family and no hotels/motels rooms are available, then as a last resort go to a shelter. Remember, shelters are not designed for comfort and do not usually accept pets. Bring your disaster supply kit with you to the shelter.

● Make sure that you fill up your car with fuel, before you leave.

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General Supply KitThe general Supply kit aim to provide a food reserve for a family/yearwater:

● 300 l /person 3 months (has to be preserved using disinfectant means, like Micropur)

● Katadyn Pocket Filter

Food /person/year

Basic version:

● 170 kg wheat● 45 kg sugar or/and honey● 45kg milk powder● 6kg salt

Food Luxurious Version:

Carbohydrate:● 24 kg flour● 12 kg semolina● 36 kg rice● 36 kg pasta● 3 kg flaked oats● 12 kg sugar● 6 kg honey● 12 kg crisp bread or zwieback

Protein:● 12 kg canned meat● 12 kg milk powder● 24 kg dried beans, peas, lentils● 6 kg canned fish● 3 kg egg powder

Fats and oils:● 12 l oil

Salt and vitamins:● 6 kg salt● multivitamin medicaments

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● 30 ascorbin acid in powder (better more, also to use as substitute for vinegar or lemon acid)

Other suggestions:● wheat (whole grain)● dried fruit● canned vegetables● vinegar● broth● spices● drink chocolate● coffee● polenta● nuts● canned fruit● tea

Further equipment:● sleeping bag and bed role● gas cooker, pot, dishes● radio (solar preferred, in case battery!)● candles● a lot of matches● various medicaments● tools(axt, multiple purpose tool, a good knife etc.)● detailed maps● books: healing plants, eatable plants● documents

Tools supply kit● axt● good knife● crossbow● scope● steel dishes

Additional kits

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Emergency supplies you should have at home

Water At least two litres per adult per day

Food Canned food: soups, stews, baked beans, pasta, meat, poultry, fish, vegetables, fruits

Crackers and biscuits

Honey, peanut butter, syrup, jam, salt and pepper, sugar, instant coffee, tea

Flashlight Power failures are common in Nova Scotia, particularly in rural areas

Radio and batteries Battery-powered, or crank radios let you hear local announcements

Spare batteries

First-aid kit

Extra car keys and cash

Important papers identification for everyone, personal documents

Clothing and footwear one change of clothes per person

Blankets or sleeping bags one per person

Personal supplies tooth paste, soap, toilet paper, etc

Medication

Backpack/duffel bag in case of an evacuation

Whistle

Playing cards, games

Stove that does not require electricity

follow the manufacturer's instructions Never use a barbeque indoors

Plastic garbage bags

Emergency equipment you should have in your carShovel Ice scraper and brushSand, salt or kitty litter; traction mats Booster cablesTow chain Methyl hydrate (for fuel line and windshield de-icing) First-aid kit Fire extinguisher Flashlight Road maps Warning light or road flares Emergency food pack Extra clothing and footwear Cloth or roll of paper towelsAxe or hatchet Compass

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Matches and a "survival" candle in a deep can (to warm hands, heat a drink or use as an emergency light)

Blanket (special "survival" blankets are best)

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Action

SNIP

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R e f e r e n c e s1. http://www.weforum.org/pdf/CSI/Global_Risk_Report.pdf

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http://www.weforum.org/pdf/CSI/Global_Risk_Report.pdf

catastrophe plan: how to handle it easly

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