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Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

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Page 1: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability

Environment (pre-exposure)

Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Page 2: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Selected Sources of Data

Environmental monitoring systems

Animals/vectors Individuals Laboratories Medical records Administrative records Police records Birth/death certificates

Page 3: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Data Sources and Methods for Surveillance

Notifiable diseases Laboratory specimens Vital records Sentinel surveillance Registries Surveys Administrative data systems Other data sources

Page 4: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Data Sources/Methods

Notifiable diseases Laboratory specimens Vital records Sentinel surveillance Registries Surveys Administrative data systems Other data sources

Page 5: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Current Status: National Notifiable Diseases

Surveillance System (NNDSS)

CSTE/CDC collaboration List revised at annual CSTE

meeting Voluntary reporting by states to

CDC Reporting mandated at state

level Reportable diseases vary by

state

Page 6: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

National Notifiable Disease Surveillance

Reporting mandated by state law/regulation

Health care providers, laboratories report to local HD (county)

County HD submits reports to State Reports transmitted to CDC primarily

through National Electronic Telecommunications System for Surveillance (NETSS)

Page 7: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

00

55

1010

1515

2020

2525

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050

YearYear

1973

1973

1978

1978

1983

1983

1988

1988

1993

1993

1998

1998

Rep

ort

ed

Cases p

er

100,0

00 P

op

ula

tion

Rep

ort

ed

Cases p

er

100,0

00 P

op

ula

tion

MUMPS — by year, United States, 1983–1998MUMPS — by year, United States, 1983–1998

01234567

YearYear

1983 1988 1993 1998

Rep

ort

ed

C

ases

per

100,0

00

Pop

ula

tion

Rep

ort

ed

C

ases

per

100,0

00

Pop

ula

tion

MUMPSUnited States 1973-1998

Page 8: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

YearYear

Rep

ort

ed

Cases

(Th

ou

san

ds)

Rep

ort

ed

Cases

(Th

ou

san

ds)

Vaccine licensedVaccine licensed

00

5050

100

100

150

150

200

200

250

250

300

300

350350

400

400

450

450

500

500

19631963 19681968 19731973 19781978 19831983 19881988 199319931998

1998

MEASLES — by year, United States, 1983–1998MEASLES — by year, United States, 1983–1998

00

55

1010

1515

2020

2525

3030

YearYear

19831983 19881988 19931993 19981998Rep

ort

ed

Cases

(Th

ou

san

ds)

Rep

ort

ed

Cases

(Th

ou

san

ds)

MEASLES (Rubeola)United States, 1963-1998

20

10

Page 9: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Passive vs. Active Surveillance

Passive - Provider-initiated

Active - Health Department-

initiated

Page 10: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Data Sources

Notifiable diseases Laboratory specimens Vital records Sentinel surveillance Registries Surveys Administrative data systems Other data sources

Page 11: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Salmonellosis (excluding Typhoid Fever)United States, 1967-1997

Outbreak causedby contaminatedpasteurized milk, IL

1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

Rep

ort

ed

Case

s p

er

10

0,0

00

Pop

ula

tion

Year

Page 12: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Salmonella—serotypes of isolates

United States, 1973-1998

YearYear

1973

1973

1978

1978

1983

1983

1988

1988

1993

1993

1998

1998

Enteritidis

Typhimurium

Other

Unknown

Outbreak caused by contaminated pasteurized milk, IL

0

0

3,00

0

3,00

0

6,00

0

6,00

0

9,00

0

9,00

0

12,000

12,000

15,000

15,000

18,000

18,000

21,000

21,000

24,000

24,000

27,000

27,000

30,000

30,000

Rep

ort

ed

iso

late

s

Enteritidis

Typhimurium

Page 13: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Blood Lead Measurements 1975-1981

1975 1976 1977

1978 1979 1980 198130

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

8

10

12

14

16

18

Year

Predicted blood lead

Gasoline lead

Observed blood lead

Lead used in gasolin

e(thousa

ndsof tons)

Mean bloodlead

levels g/dl

Page 14: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Data Sources

Notifiable diseases Laboratory specimens Vital records Sentinel surveillance Registries Surveys Administrative data systems Other data sources

Page 15: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Use of NCHS Data Systems for Surveillance

Vital Statistics National Infant Mortality

Surveillance (NIMS) Linked:

birth recordsdeath records

Page 16: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Data Sources Notifiable diseases Laboratory specimens Vital records Sentinel surveillance Registries Surveys Administrative data systems Other data sources

Page 17: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Sentinel Surveillance

Monitoring of key health events through sentinel: Sites Events Providers Vectors/animals

Page 18: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

SENSOR

Sentinel Event Notification System for Occupationa

l Risks

Page 19: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Lead Poisonin

gMichigan,

1990

NONE

1-25

26-100

100+

Page 20: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Confirmed Work-Related Asthma Patients

By Industry Type: 1988-1998Michigan

3%

16%

4%

71%

6%Manufacturing: n=960Construction: n=36

Services: n=215

Trade: N=47

Miscellaneous: N=76

Page 21: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Data Sources

Notifiable diseases Laboratory specimens Vital records Sentinel surveillance Registries Surveys Administrative data systems Other data sources

Page 22: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Year

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81 82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91 92

93

94

Incidence

Mortality

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Nu

mb

er/

10

0,0

00

Lung and Bronchus Cancer (Invasive)

United States, 1973-1994SEER Incidence and U.S. Mortality

Page 23: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Birth Defects Monitoring Programs

Vital records Hospital discharge summaries Hospital records (active abstraction)

Page 24: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

0

5

10

15

20

25

68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98

Year of Birth

Ra

te p

er

10

,00

0

Prenatally Diagnosed CasesHospital-based. LB & SB Babies

BeforeFortification

AfterFortifcation

Prevalence of Anencephaly and Spina BifidaMetropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program, 1968-2000

Page 25: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Data Sources

Notifiable diseases Laboratory specimens Vital records Sentinel surveillance Registries Surveys Administrative data systems Other data sources

Page 26: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Use of NCHS Data Systems for Surveillance

Population-based surveys National Health Interview Survey National Health and Nutrition

Examination Survey Provider-based surveys

National Hospital Discharge Survey National Ambulatory Medical Care

Survey

Page 27: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 10 20 30 40

Serum Folate, ng/ml

Per

cen

tile

Median Serum Folate, NHANES III and 1999, Nonpregnant Women, 15-44 years

Post fortification

Prefortification

4.8 14.5

Page 28: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Cesarean Deliveries United States, 1970-1992

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

Year

Perc

en

tag

e

Page 29: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Data Sources

Notifiable diseases Laboratory specimens Vital records Sentinel surveillance Registries Surveys Administrative data systems Other data sources

Page 30: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Ectopic PregnanciesUnited States 1980-1996

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96Year

Number of Ectopic

Pregnancies in women 15-44

Page 31: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Data Sources

Notifiable diseases Laboratory specimens Vital records Sentinel surveillance Registries Surveys Administrative data systems Other data sources

Page 32: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Other Data Useful for Surveillance

Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System

CDC Drug Service Miscellaneous

Page 33: Causal Pathway of Disease or Disability Environment (pre-exposure) Hazard/agent Behavior/risk factor Exposure Pre-symptomatic phase Apparent disease Death

Summaries,Interpretations,Recommendatio

ns

Reports

HealthAgencie

s

Health Care

Providers

Public

Analysis

Information Loop of Public Health Surveillance