cbrfc april 2010 water supply webinar

CBRFCApril 2010

Water Supply Webinar

1pm, April 7, 2010

Kevin Werner

These slides: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php

PLEASE MUTE YOUR PHONES

Outline

• March Weather Review

• Snow States• Water Supply

Forecasts

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cbrfc.3.2009.html

Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/precip/qpe/mapsum/mapsum.cgi??cbrfc?M?2009?02

Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?scon=checked

Snow:Mar 4 (above)Apr 6 (right)

Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open

Snow: Upper Green Basin (above Flaming Gorge)


Snow:Colorado Mainstem (above

Cameo)


Snow:San Juan Basin


Snow:Bear River


Snow:Six Creeks in Salt Lake County


Snow:Lower Colorado

Last 7 days…

Web Reference: http://water.weather.gov

<- Last 30 days

Last 7 days

NRCS daily forecast

update 7 day change scince

April 1

Forecast Precipitation

Web Reference: www.hpc.noaa.gov

• Mostly dry for the rest of this week and weekend• Storm pattern expected for next week. Details still fuzzy but event could be significant for parts of the basin

http://www.hpc.noaa.gov/

Forecast Precipitation:Next Week’s Storm

Current weather forecast model solutions for 14 day period precipitation totals: NOAA’s GFS (left) and European’s ECMWF (right). Both models show a major long wave trough affecting the southern half first (~Tues, 4/13) and then the northern half (~Thurs, 4/15).

El Nino Update

Web Reference: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov and iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/

Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/climate/climoForecasts.cgi

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

April 1, 2010Water Supply Forecasts

Highlights:• Dry conditions continue in much of the Upper Colorado and Great Basins• Forecasts generally lower by 5-15% from March 1 in upper Colorado Basin• Forecasts in northern Great Basin tempered by recent storm. • Lower basin melt out underway

1580/50%3340/72%

1050/85%

Average contribution to Lake Powell Apr-Jul inflow:Green River-Green River, UT 34%Colorado River-Cicso, UT 50%San Juan River-Bluff, UT 13%

ESP 50% forecast guidanceMarch 1 March 29

no qpf – qpf Green R. 1782 1522 – 1587 Colorado R. 3475 3177 – 3235 San Juan R. 972 831 – 824

Online Publication

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

April 1, 2010Peak Flow Forecasts

Highlights:• Low flood risk potential in upper basin• Lower basin at some risk if a significant precipitation event were to coincide with snow melt. • Most streamflow recreation points not expected to reach minimum thresholds• Weather patterns over the next 2 months will greatly influence actual peak flows

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?pcon=checked

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?pcon=checked

Email Updates: Automatic email update customized to what you need.

http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/govdelivery.html

More Resources

• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov• Wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov

• Podcast versions of webinars available (CBRFC homepage -> podcasts

• Tentative May water supply & peak flow webinar: 10am May 7

• Separate Peak Flow Forecast webinar as required or requested

http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/

http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

CBRFC Open House

• Objective: Improve understanding / communication of forecast process and forecast usage

• August 18, 2010• Salt Lake City, UT• More details to come• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/openhouse.html

Kevin Werner

CBRFC Service Coordination HydrologistPhone: 801.524.5130

Email: [email protected]

Feedback, Questions, Concerns always welcome….

mailto:kevin.werner@noaa

cbrfc april 2010 water supply webinar

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