cbrfc water supply training
DESCRIPTION
CBRFC Water Supply Training. Goals. Review methodologies and procedures Increase consistency between forecasters Improve understanding of basin hydrology. Agenda. Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations. Nov 4: Procedures. Nov 5: Forecast Tools. Nov 12: Basin Project Reports. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
CBRFC Water Supply Training
Goals
• Review methodologies and procedures• Increase consistency between forecasters• Improve understanding of basin hydrology
Agenda
Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations
Nov 4: Procedures
Nov 12: Basin Project Reports
Nov 5: Forecast Tools
• Overview and General Discussion• Verification – Kevin and Lisa (2 hours)
– New Capabilities– Basin Assignment
• Climate Correlations – Bill (1/2 hour)• Climate Correlation demo – Kevin and Drew
(1/2 hour)
Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations
• Water supply procedure list – Brenda / Greg• Basin documentation: best practices and
baseline template – Greg• Data gathering: obtaining data, processing
data, database, shef coding – Brenda• Coordination with NRCS and WFOs – Brenda• Product Dissemination: ESGs, publications,
western water, email – Greg
Nov 4: Procedures
• SWS theory – Kevin• SWS practical – Steve• ESP and XEFS – Kevin• ESPADP – Greg• ESP and ESPADP batch - John
Nov 5: Forecast Tools
• Verification and climate assignment results:– Great Basin – Brent– Green Basin – Bill– Upper Colorado – Brenda– San Juan + Gunnison – Tracy– Lower Colorado – Greg
• Overall discussion: How do we come up with our number?
Nov 12: Basin Project Reports
Format
• Formal talks• Open discussion• “Homework” assingment• Interesting and fun
Opportunity #1: Important Forecast Program
Opportunity #2: CBRFC Control
Unlike many other most NWS programs, CBRFC has near total freedom over forecast procedures, services, etc:
-1940s – CBRFC established for water supply forecasting-1990s – SWS developed at CBRFC
Major opportunity for prototyping concepts for other NWS programs
Opportunity #3: ESP
“Many irrigation interests, reservoir operators, and other water management agencies now possess sufficient sophistication to demand and efficiently utilize water supply forecasts of a probabilistic nature for a variety of time periods.”-Twedt, et al, 1977
“ESP is a valuable tool when used as part of an operational decision support system for water management. The probabilistic information allows decision makers to incorporate risk into operational decisions.”-WARFS Demonstration Report, 1994
“Now that I’ve been using ESP to support decisions in my operations, I cannot imagine not using it” -paraphrasing a water manager in 2008
Opportunity #4: Verification
“You guys keep telling me how you make your forecasts and how great they are, but you’ve never shown me anything that proves it.”-Anonymous customer, 2008
New verification capabilities this year (THANKS LISA!) will allow the first ever objective and robust treatment of this question.
More Opportunities
1. NIDIS
2. Interaction with research community
New Paradigms?
SWS ESP
Forecaster
User
NRCS
New Paradigms?
SWS ESP
Forecaster
User
NRCS
ESP &XEFS
Forecaster
User
NRCSVIPER
Discussion
• What areas of the forecast process would you like more explanation?
• Where do you see opportunities for improvement?
• Is there information or support that you’re not getting that would help you?
• Is there too much information?