ccafs 4 degree world by philip thornton
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CCAFS and a +4° degree world
Philip Thornton
CU retreat5 February 2015
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Outline
• What would +4 °C agriculture look like?
• What could CCAFS do as a R4D program in such a world?
– Mitigation
– Adaptation
– Transformative change
• What trajectory are we on?
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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Ave
rage
Te
mp
(d
eg
C)
Year
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
Mean daily temperature in sub-Saharan Africa to the 2090sAfrica south of lat 18°N, all areas with LGP>40 days per year (grey mask below)Ensemble mean, 17 GCMs downscaled to 10 arc-minutes (about 18 km)For two emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5
Thornton & Jones (2014)
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To 2090, ensemble
mean of 14 climate
models
Thornton et al. (2010)
>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain
Length of growing period (%)
African agriculture in a +4 °C world
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• Almost no rain-fed agricultural production south of the Zambesi
• Shorter growing seasons, 20-50% decreases in crop yields, much more in some places; >70% for beans
• Substantial increases in frequency of extreme events, climate variability, season failures equilibrium conditions in African rangelands upset
• Massive increases in intensive cropping in the highlands
(“sustainable intensification”) and high-risk cropping in the
marginal areas
• Water, human health, crop/livestock disease, weeds & pests, coastal impacts, natural resource conflicts, mass migration, …
• Prognosis is appalling: catastrophic for most of the continent
African agriculture in a +4 °C world
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What could CCAFS do in a +4 °C world?
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• Requires significant resources to incentivize new practices on 25% of the world’s farm- and rangeland.
• Requires up to twice the level of mitigation achieved for the conservative goal, and hence more transformative approaches, e.g.:
– far-reaching rural credit
– more efficient organization of production
– innovations such as inexpensive nitrification inhibitors or the availability of cattle breeds that produce less methane
Medium range goal Aspirational goal
Agriculture will have to be contributing to mitigationAspirational goal: to reduce agricultural GHG emissions in 2030 by 12-14% relative to “business-as-usual”, while achieving global food security for 8.3 billion people
Wollenberg & Richards (2015)
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Adapting to a +4 °C world: what could CCAFS do?
• National / subnational multi-sectoral information on impacts (short term, long term) for prioritisation
• Beyond CSVs:
• Area-wide sustainability: shift production to most suitable zones
• Different crop / livestock species, knowledge of how to use them
• Innovative production systems (vertical farms, urban agriculture)
• Beyond agricultural self-sufficiency as an economic objective:
• Shifts in national policy objectives: trading partnerships, regional / global inter-connectedness
• Smallholder intensification, land aggregation
• Alternative livelihoods in rural areas
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But is it enough?
• Consuming more sustainable diets (managing the demand side)• Modifying what we eat could have very large impacts on use of
land & water, GHG emissions, health & nutrition
• Technology game changers• Artificial meat, insect protein, seaweed• N-fixing cereals; methane inhibitors?
• Reducing waste in food value chains• ~40% of food is lost (postharvest, processing, retail, consumer)
• Making policies and markets work together• Enlightened and informed governance plus a socially responsible
private sector• Appropriate policy / market incentives to induce behavioural
change on a massive scale
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• Need to account for full impacts on ag, food security and livelihoods: variability, pests/diseases, water, human health, systems buffering …
• Need to quantify what we are promoting in relation to adaptation, mitigation, food security: what works where and why, what doesn’t
• Not so much about technology: making do with what we have (silver bullets unlikely)
• Need new skills: discourse analysis and gender norms (how can they be modified?), behavioural science, marketing science
• Leading by example - more action, less talking?
• Need the communications and engagement to back all this up
CCAFS research before we get to a +4 °C world
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What trajectory are we on?
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IPCC’s budgets for a “likely”chance of not
exceeding 2°C demand the EU deliver an 80% reductionin emissions from its energy
system by 2030, with full decarbonisation shortly
after
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Steffen et al. (2015)
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Environmental news coverage:ITV 2.5% (2007) 0.2% (2014)BBC 1.6% (2007) 0.3% (2014)
In 2014 as many news stories about Madeleine McCann (7 years on) as about all environmental issues put together
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• Highly non-linear climate system
• Tipping points, positive feedbacks
• There is not a lot of time: 2016-2020 may represent the last window
• Political will and changes to CC discourse on a massive scale
• Or are there simply limits to the collective capability of “Hom sap” to do what’s needed?