ccafs climate change agriculture and food security
TRANSCRIPT
Event name
CCAFS: An Overview
NamePosition
2 • 3/21/11
The Challenge
3 • 3/21/11
The concentration of GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and for crop suitability
4 • 3/21/11
Historical impacts on food security
% Yield impact for wheat
Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.
Lobell et al (2011)
5 • 3/21/11
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
Crop suitability is changing
6 • 3/21/11
In order to meet global
demands, we will need
60-70% more food
by 2050.
Food security is at risk
7 • 3/21/11
“Unchecked climate change will result in a
20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full
mitigation scenario.
-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS
8 • 3/21/11
Message 1:In the coming decades, climate
change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security,
and rural livelihoods.
9 • 3/21/11
Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)
Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system
2006 2007 2008
Ecosystem valuation
Spot the livestock!
10 • 3/21/11
Message 2:With new challenges also come
new opportunities.
11 • 3/21/11
Program Design
12 • 3/21/11
CCAFS: the partnership
13 • 3/21/11
1. Identify and develop pro-poor
adaptation and mitigation
practices, technologies and
policies for agriculture and
food systems.
2.Support the inclusion of
agricultural issues in climate
change policies, and of
climate issues in agricultural
policies, at all levels.
CCAFS objectives
14 • 3/21/11
The CCAFS FrameworkAdapting Agriculture to
Climate Variability and Change
Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:
1.Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change2.Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk3.Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation
Improved Environmental
HealthImproved
Rural Livelihoods
Improved Food
Security
Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural
resource management, and food systems
Trade-offs and Synergies
4. Integration for Decision Making
•Linking Knowledge with Action•Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning•Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis
15 • 3/21/11
Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices
The CGIAR Research Centers
Lead center - CIAT
16 • 3/21/11
Place-based field work
Indo-Gangetic Plains:There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise; the intensity and probability of extreme events will likely increase.
Regional director:Pramod Aggarwal
East Africa:Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress.
Regional director:James Kinyangi
West Africa:Extreme rainfall variability impedes precipitation predictions, but the Sahel will likely experience shorter growing periods.
Regional director:Robert Zougmoré
17 • 3/21/11
Progressive Adaptation
THE VISION
To adapt farming systems, we need to:
• Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies
• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential
• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level
18 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies
Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climatesObjective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
19 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
1.1
• Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites)
• Agricultural knowledge transfer
• Analysis of enabling policies and instit. mechanisms
Adapted farming systems
1.2
• Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies
• Regional fora to discuss and set priorities
Breeding strategies for
climate stresses
1.3
• Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation
• On-farm use of diversity to adapt
• Policies of access for benefit sharing
Species and genetic diversity
20 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up
Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture
What CCAFS output?
21 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform
It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge.
Why is it useful?
The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge.
What CCAFS output?
22 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: Farms of the future
The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality
What CCAFS output?
Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials
Why is it useful?
23 • 3/21/11 Karnal (India)
• Rainy season from June to September
24 • 3/21/11Farmer exchanges for adaptation knowledge management
25 • 3/21/11
TPE analysis
Future systems
Knowledge &
intuition
Ideotype concept
Gene/alleledisc
overy
Intelligent
phenotyping
designs
Marker develop
mt.
Modeling
Marker validatio
n,Integrati
on,G x E x M
Molecular
breeding
Intelligent choice
of populatio
ns
Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment
CHANGE
Con-vention
al breedin
g
Application
Methodology
Search
Function, regulatio
n,phénotyp
e
Strategic choices
DiversityPanels
BiparentalPops
CCAFS (CRP7) activity 1.2:
Breeding strategies & ideotypes for 2030 horizon
26 • 3/21/11
>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)
20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites
Effect of +1ºC warming on yield
Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed
More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought
Lobell et al. 2011
27 • 3/21/11
• Over 3,000 trials• 16 crops• 20 countries• > 15 international and national institutions
New data
>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)
28 • 3/21/11
Risk
Management
THE VISION
• Climate-related risk impedes development, leading to chronic poverty and dependency
• Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term
•Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations.
29 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level)
Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response (Food system level)
Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services
Managing Climate Risk · 2
30 • 3/21/11
Managing Climate Risk · 2
2.1
• Designed diversification
• Index-based risk transfer
• Anticipatory mgmt, aided by forecasts and communications
• Participatory action research
Building resilient livelihoods
2.2
• Manage price volatility via trade and storage
• Improved early warning systems
• Coordin. platform
• Food safety nets
• Post-crisis recovery
Food delivery, trade, and crisis
response
2.3
info.• Historical data reconstruction• Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast predictions• Monitor and forecast crops, rangelands, pests & diseases
services• Institutional arrangements• Communication processes• Capacity bldg for providers
Climate information and services
31 • 3/21/11
Managing climate risk · 2
>> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance
• Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance• Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis risk
What CCAFS outputs?
Basing payouts on an objectively-measured index avoids the high cost of verifying losses and overcomes the problems of moral hazard, adverse selection and. Farmers’ assets are protected from climate shocks.
Why is it useful?
In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than on observed losses.
32 • 3/21/11
Managing climate risk · 2
>> Spotlight on: Reconstructing climate data
Google tool for Ethiopia scaled up across AfricaFilling gaps in meteorological records in partnership with local met services and WMO
What CCAFS outputs?
Crucial for calculating index insurance, forecasting production for food crisis and trade management etc
Why is it useful?
33 • 3/21/11
Pro-poor Mitigation
VISION
Short-term: Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes
Long-term: Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation
34 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways
Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements
Objective Three: Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications
Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
35 • 3/21/11
Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
3.1
• Evaluate lowest carbon footprints for: food production, adaptation, energy production, sustainable intensification, poverty alleviation
• Assess impacts of current policies
• Develop coherent vision to guide agric dvlpt
Low-carbon development
pathways
3.2
• Test feasibility of carbon market for smallholders, focusing on best bets (SE Asia, Latin Amer)
• Assess potential non-market options
• Assess impacts on marginalized groups and women
Incentives and instit.
arrangements
3.3
• Test technological feasibility of smallholder mitigation on farms
• Dvlpt cost-effective, simple, integrated MRV.
• Assess impacts of all GHGs through their lifecycles.
On-farm mitigation
options
36 • 3/21/11
Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models across East and West Africa
What CCAFS outputs?
• Direct link between research and action• Strong demand from carbon project managers
Why is it useful?
Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
>> Spotlight on: Carbon project action research
37 • 3/21/11
Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
>> Spotlight on: Quantifying agricultural emissions
Two workshops, hosted together with FAO and Duke University, will provide an overview and synthesis of how to quantify emissions for smallholder systems, especially for farm- and landscape level-impacts.
What CCAFS outputs?
Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground.
Why is it useful?
38 • 3/21/11
Integration
VISION
•Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework, grounded in the policy context
• Synthesize lessons learned
•Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers
•Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions
•Build partners’ capacity
39 • 3/21/11
T2: Risk Management
T3: Pro-poor Mitigation
Rural Livelihoods
Environment
Food Security
Integration for
Decision Making
40 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Linking knowledge with action
Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning
Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis
Integration for Decision Making · 4
41 • 3/21/11
Integration for Decision Making · 4
4.1
• Regional scenarios
• Vulnerability assessments
• Approaches to decision making informed by good science
• Approaches to benefit vulnerable, disadvantaged groups
Linking knowledge with
action
4.2
• Integrated assessment framework, toolkits, and databases to assess CC impacts
• Baselines, data generation & collation, scoping studies, and tool development
• Socially-differentiated decision aids and info for different stakeholders
Data and tools for analysis and
planning
4.3
• Assess CC impacts at global & regional levels on: producers, consumers, natural resources, and international transactions
• Analyze likely effects of scientific adap. and mitig. options, national policies
• Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groups
Frameworks for policy analysis
42 • 3/21/11
Baseline survey conducted in 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households
What CCAFS outputs?
• Sites for participatory action research• Guidance for research foci• Basis for formal evaluation of program impacts
Why is it useful?
Integration for Decision Making · 4
>> Spotlight on: Household baseline survey
43 • 3/21/11
http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/
>> Spotlight on:
Integration for Decision Making · 4
A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe
What CCAFS outputs?
To drive agricultural impact models for climate change studies
Why is it useful?
44 • 3/21/11
Select climate model (6 options
or their avg)
Select emission
s scenario(3 options)
Select the centre year of the time
slice
Select location Select the number of years of data desired
™
Integration for Decision Making · 4
45 • 3/21/11Global scenarios …
… regional scenarios …
(demand, land use, global prices, etc)
Inputs
Ecosystem services
(regional prices, regional demand, policy & market environment, etc)
Checks for coherence, consistency, viability
Evaluating options:• Incomes• Food security• Livelihoods• Trade-offs
… household assessment
… providing context and inputs to …
… providing context and inputs to …
Checks for coherence, consistency, viability
AggregationDisaggregation
46 • 3/21/11
Cross-cutting principles, activities & outputs
47 • 3/21/11
Building a user-driven agenda
• From large-scale stakeholder consultationse.g. GCARD, regional meetings
• Specific exercises with selected groups e.g. Venice meeting, regional scenarios, farmer testimonials
From local to regional to global
48 • 3/21/11
Mainstream outputs and outcomes
For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results.CLIFF, meteorological services, climate and agricultural research institutes, the Climate Food and Farming PhD student network
For policy partners to demand and use data, tools, and resultsGovernments, civil society, development organizations, farmers’ organizations, private sector
e.g. User-driven regional scenarios
49 • 3/21/11
People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently.
A Definition
• Adaptation requires embedded local capacity, not external solutions• CCAFS aims to enhance both (a) research capacities and (b) capacities to link knowledge and action
The CCAFS Vision
Capacity enhancement
50 • 3/21/11
• Social groups differ in (a) vulnerability to climate change and (b) abilities to respond• 30% of CCAFS research budget will address gender & social differentiation• Early work in gender studies, opportunities for women scientists
Social differentiation
51 • 3/21/11
Join up climate, ag & food policy
• Based on robust science, what policy changes need to happen and what are the levers?• 13 Commissioners, 10 months
The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change
• Putting agriculture and food security on the climate map• Global partners, major reach
Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD)
52 • 3/21/11
The Commission will identify what policy changes and actions are needed now to help the world achieve sustainable agriculture that contributes to food security and poverty reduction, and helps respond to climate change adaptation and mitigation goals.
The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change
CCAFS is an active partner in the annual ARDD side event at the annual UNFCCC Conference of Parties negotiations.
Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD)
Global policy impact
53 • 3/21/11
Urgent actions
in 2011
54 • 3/21/11
Participatory action research• Participatory trials of practices, tools & technologies
• Cross-site learning visits to empower farmers to build adaptation strategies
55 • 3/21/11
Communications & engagement on multiple fronts, with regional partners and farmers’ voices
Hope for agriculture in the UNFCCC? Hague process, Commission, ARDD, Meridian, SACAU & FANRPAN
Need to bring African policy-makers on board
Communications & policy outreach
56 • 3/21/11
Verbal, photo and video testimonials
• Link local & scientific knowledge • Communicate uncertainty
Amplifying rural voices
57 • 3/21/11
CCAFS Governance Structure
58 • 3/21/11
• Centers begin to adjust their CRP7 funded research agendas towards the broader CCAFS strategy, with support from CCAFS-led activities and through CCAFS established partnerships. • Low-hanging fruit inter-centre collaborations.
2011 as a transition year
• Centers fully aligned with CCAFS, and contributing to multi-center, multi-partner programs of work. • Budget assigned strategically.
2012 and beyond
CCAFS Start-Up
59 • 3/21/11
Subtotal Executed by Centers 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total
Theme 1 Adaptation to progressive climate change
16.9 18.0 18.5 19.5 20.4 93.3
Theme 2 Adaptation through managing climate risk
5.3 6.0 7.0 7.4 7.7 33.4
Theme 3 Pro-poor climate change mitigation 7.9 8.6 9.5 10.0 10.5 46.4
Theme 4 Integration for decision making 9.7 10.2 11.2 11.7 12.3 55.1
CRP7, Theme and regional coordination 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 8.1
Subtotal 40.9 44.1 48.0 50.4 53.0 236.4
37%
14%19%
27%
3%Theme 1: Adaptation to progressive climate change
Theme 2: Adaptation through managing climate risk Theme 3: Pro-- poor climate change mitigation
Theme 4: Integration for decision makingCRP7: Theme and regional coordination
CCAFS Budget
60 • 3/21/11
CCAFS Budget across centersCentre Theme 1 :
Progressive Climate Change
Theme 2 :Climate Risk
Theme 3 : Mitigation
Theme 4: Integration for
Decision Making
CRP7, Theme and Regional Coordination
Total Budget
CGIAR Fund Current and Projected Restricted Donor Projects and Other Sources of
Funds
% of Centre Budget
from Fund
AfricaRice 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 - 0.8 0.6 0.2 75%
Bioversity 5.6 - - - - 5.6 3.7 1.9 66%
CIAT 2.3 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.9 6.0 4.1 1.9 68%
CIFOR - - 1.0 - - 1.0 0.5 0.5 50%
CIMMYT 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.5 - 5.5 4.2 1.3 76%
CIP 0.9 0.7 0.3 1.0 - 3.0 1.8 1.2 61%
ICARDA 1.7 0.2 0.1 - - 2.0 1.5 0.5 74%
ICRAF 0.9 0.5 3.7 2.6 0.3 7.9 5.5 2.4 70%
ICRISAT 1.2 1.3 0.6 1.3 0.1 4.5 3.5 1.1 77%
IFPRI - - 0.3 3.8 0.2 4.2 2.0 2.2 47%
IITA 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 - 1.0 0.8 0.1 85%
ILRI 1.7 1.0 1.0 4.1 0.2 8.0 5.1 2.9 64%
IRRI 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.0 - 1.1 0.7 0.4 68%
IWMI 3.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.2 5.2 3.1 2.1 59%
WorldFish 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.8 - 2.0 0.4 1.6 20%
Total 21.2 8.3 10.9 15.6 1.8 57.8 37.4 20.3 65%
Coordination, Synthesis, Capacity Enhancement, Communications 4.6 3.1 1.5 68%
CGIAR System Costs 0.8 0.8 100%
Total Program costs
63.2 41.4 21.8 65%
61 • 3/21/11
Centre
Theme 1 :Progressive Climate
Change
Theme 1 Percentage of total
Theme 2 :Climate
Risk
Theme 3 : Mitigation
Theme 3 Percentage of total
Theme 4: Integratio
n for Decision Making
Theme 3 Percentage of total
CRP7, Theme
and Regional
Coordination
TotalCGIAR Fund
Current and
Projected Restricted
Donor Projects
and Other Sources of Funds
% of Centre Budget
from Fund
CIMMYT 2.0 10.5 2.1 0.9 10.9 0.5 4.9 0.0 5.5 4.2 1.3 76%
Bioversity 5.6 29.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 3.7 1.9 66%
ICRAF 0.9 5.0 0.5 2.3 28.0 1.2 12.3 0.0 4.9 2.5 2.4 51%
CIP 0.9 4.7 0.7 0.3 3.5 1.0 10.9 0.0 3.0 1.8 1.2 61%
ILRI 1.3 6.9 0.6 0.6 7.6 2.0 20.6 0.0 4.5 1.6 2.9 36%
ICRISAT 0.8 4.3 0.9 0.2 2.5 0.7 7.6 0.0 2.6 1.6 1.1 60%
ICARDA 1.7 9.2 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.5 0.5 74%
CIAT 1.2 6.3 0.0 1.2 13.9 0.7 7.3 0.0 3.0 1.1 1.9 36%
IWMI 3.1 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 1.0 2.1 32%
IITA 0.2 1.3 0.2 0.2 2.9 0.3 2.8 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.1 85%
IRRI 0.4 2.4 0.0 0.6 7.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.1 0.7 0.4 68%
AfricaRice 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.4 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.2 75%
CIFOR 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 50%
IFPRI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.0 2.4 24.9 0.0 2.6 0.4 2.2 16%
WorldFish 0.4 2.0 0.6 0.2 3.0 0.8 8.1 0.0 2.0 0.4 1.6 20%
CCAFS Budget across centers -
Unrestricted
62 • 3/21/11
ILRI Activity Plan part 1
Theme 1, Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners
1.1 Adapted Farming systems to changing climate conditionsData assembly (including systems and the analytical framework), analysis and synthesis
Documentation of future vulnerability of livestock systems globally to target interventions
INRA-led consortium of 27 partners
1.2 Breeding strategies for future climatic conditions1.3 Species and genetic diversity for climate change
Theme 2, Adaptation Pathways for Current Climate RiskActivity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners
2.1 Managing climate risk and building resilient livelihoodsWorkshops, syntheses, report writing Documentation of how agro-pastoralists are coping with
climate risk in West and Southern Africa, and piloting options as to how they may cope with increased climate risk in the future
PIK, University of Kassel, IER (Mali), IIAM (Mozambique), IFPRI
2.2 Managing climate risk through food delivery, trade and crisis response2.3 Prediction of climate impacts, and enhanced climate services
63 • 3/21/11
ILRI Activity Plan part 2
Theme 3, Pro-Poor Climate Change MitigationActivity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners
3.1. Low-carbon agricultural development pathwaysConsultations, workshop, analysis, syntheses Greenhouse gas emissions from livestock systems by
country: updating the IPCC numbers IIASA, FAO
3.2 Institutional arrangements and incentives for mitigation3.3 On-farm mitigation practices and landscape implicationsWorkshop, syntheses Scoping study on carbon sequestration in livestock
systems in developing countries Under development
Theme 4, Integration for Decision MakingActivity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners
4.1 Linking knowledge with action4.2 Data and tools for analysis and planningModel development, testing and documentation Documentation for GLOBIOM-Livestock, a global
integrated assessment model with explicit treatment of livestock issues
4.3 Refining frameworks for policy analysisWriteshops, syntheses Global review of livestock issues in global change IFPRI, IIASA, PIK, FAO, PBL
64 • 3/21/11
Director: Bruce Campbell
Head of Research: Sonja Vermeulen
Head of Program Coordination and Communications: Torben Timmermann
Program Manager: Misha Wolsgaard-Iversen
Events & Program Support Consultant: Ratih Septivita
Communications Consultant: Vanessa Meadu
CCAFS Director and Heads
Program & Comm. Support
The CCAFS Team: Who’s coordinating the effort?
65 • 3/21/11
T1: Adaptation to Progressive CC
Theme Leaders: Andy Jarvis & Andy Challinor
Science Officer: Osana Bonilla-Findji
T2: Adaptation through Managing Climate RiskTheme Leader: Jim Hansen
Science Officer: Kevin Coffey
T3: Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation
Theme Leader: Lini WollenbergScience Officer: Michael Misiko
T4: Integration for Decision Making Theme Leaders: Phil Thornton, Gerry
Nelson, Patti KristjansonScience Officers: Wiebke Chaudhury, Christina Sison, Moushumi Chaudhury
The CCAFS Team: Who’s leading the effort?
66 • 3/21/11
•Connect people•Reduce redundancy•Maximise creative potential•Elevate the level of CGIAR research and its outreach
Integrating across the CGIAR
•Plug into centre communications and co-brand outputs•Create a platform for fund-raising to support centres
Co-branding of CC work
How we would like to work
67 • 3/21/11
• Learn about the program on the web and through presentations• Engage with theme leaders and center contact points on your research
Learn and engage
• Use research products coming out of other centers• Develop multi-center programs of work which are embedded in CCAFS strategy• Develop ownership and feel a part of the program AND your centre
Collaborate and contribute
What Should You Do?
68 • 3/21/11
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