CCAFS Scenarios on food security, agriculture, environments and livelihoods globally and in

“The MEAL Scenarios “: A tool for guiding policy actions and investment in SEA

IRRI HQ, Los Banos ( Philippines), 28/04/14

Presented by Dr. Rathana PeouSouth East Asia Regional Scenarios Coordinator

What are scenarios?

• Scenarios are multiple “what if?” stories about the future, expressed in words, through simulation models, in visuals – originally from the private sector & military

• Scenarios can be used to explore different directions of change – in climate, markets, governance and other key factors

• Scenarios are not predictions• Scenarios are a tool for testing strategies, they

are not strategies themselves – they represent contexts

• Testing plans at local, district, national levels

Multi-stakeholder scenarios

• Examine assumptions – “shadow scenario”• Overcome bias and planning for the past,

stretch and focus thinking• Elicit and connect stakeholder perspectives• Social learning• Examine roles in complex systems• Test and guide decisions and policies• Engaging with the future to re-organize

present structures• Schoemaker, 1993

East Africa: four socio-economic scenarios

CCAFS scenarios: Global and regional objectives

• Guide public decision-making process for improved future food security, environments, livelihoods

• Scenarios used by private decision-makers to target investments, research and development areas design of agenda

• Policy guidance, institutional change, investment proposals opening a space of changes

Future: broad uncertainty Scenarios

Past

Present perspective

Scenarios: why useful

• Work with future uncertainties in concrete and engaging manner (Vervoort et al. 2012)

• Identify and frame contextual challenges• Identify institutional vulnerabilities• Test and develop policies• Test innovations• Build networks• Public engagement and awareness raising

Scenarios: challenges

• Steep learning curve• Implications for organizations etc.• How to get from scenarios to actions• Bias for positive scenarios• Plausibility and consistency• Credibility of source, credibility of content,

credibility of channel• LegitimacyChaudhury et al. 2012, Schoemaker 1993

Factors Markets

Enforcement capacity and regional collaboration

Agricultural investment

Land degradation through land use change

Land of the Golden Mekong

Common regulated market

Strong enforcement and strong regional collaboration High public and private Low

Buffalo, Buffalo Unregulated

Weak enforcement and weak regional collaboration

Unbalanced: high private investment in business and research High

The Doreki Dragon

Common regulated market

Strong enforcement and strong regional collaboration

Unbalanced: high private investment in business and research High

Tigers on the Train

Protectionism and closed market

Strong enforcement and strong regional collaboration Low public and private Low

Four scenarios for Southeast Asia

• 2009: Increasing realization that climate change fundamentally alters how we should plan, govern, finance and implement agriculture

• Much discussion at international level – but little country experience

• 2012: EC funds the FAO EPIC programme to work with 3 partner countries (Vietnam, Malawi, Zambia) to develop the evidence base, policy framework, strategy and financing to support CSA

• Participatory scenario building an important way to bring together the project work on evidence base, strategy and policy

Background on the project in Vietnam

FAO EPIC CSA project activities in Vietnam

With NOMAFSI as country partner institution:• Identified a series of CSA priorities to improve food security and adaptation under

climate change in the Northern Mountainous Region• Collected historical climate data at high resolution to be used in analyses of

barriers to adoption and impact of CSA activities • Use of historical climate data and cost benefit analysis of barriers to adoption of

CSA• Mapping institutions relevant to CSA implementation • Value Chain Analyses on Coffee & Tea in the Northern region• Scenario development to link the evidence base to investment proposals• CSA financing/investment specialist mission up-coming • Capacity building (MsC and PhD students; MARD officials to attend UNFCCC talks)• Investment Proposal Workshop on the 8-9th of May, 2014 in Hanoi

Decision makers’ and key stakeholders feedback in SEA• Took an integrated systems perspective on the future of East Africa. • Got a better understanding of future challenges for food security,

livelihoods and environments and how to design strategies to address these challenges, in spite of uncertainty

• Learn about new regional linkages and find out what is being done in other countries – and recognise the need for more interaction

• See the need for collaboration between state and non-state actors facilitated by regional bodies.

• Not enough time to well develop the full scenarios what next?

Thinking about engagement, how to engage and for what? Process vs Outcomes

• Scenarios work can be a very engaging and creative but difficult to measure the changes and the impacts

• We are talking about the future first and then linking the different futures to the present, back casting allow to work both on the finance and the program ( need based approach)

• The present is being addressed in the context of the future, we are addressing 2 types of reform

• Big question mark of the ASEAN and what role of regulation and finance will they play in those countries.

Policy dialogue and Investment In Cambodia

• Engaging Policy, support Policy Plan framing within the context of scenarios, developing tool of follow up and monitoring

• Space, Time, Knowledge and Contacts are key thus into “knowing how” to move into all the dimensions that crossed food system and CC in Cambodia.

Key learning and Outcomes

• Supporting the brainstorming and writing process of the CCAP (Climate Change Agriculture Plan- 2014/2018) as well as promoting direct adoption of Fiche Notes (activity/ operation) with estimated fund needed together with a narrowed focus of key activities that are measured by their feasibilities and impact.

Action Number

Agricultural sector Category of actions

Responsible department(s)

Preliminary Estimated budget (USD’000)

(note: present costs to the nearest 1000 USD)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total

AGRICULTURE AND AGRO-INDUSTRY

1

Promoting and up- calling sustainable farming system that resilient to climate change

1,2 GDA 2,694 2,694 2,694 2,694 2,694 13,470

2 Promote post-harvest technology for cereal crop and tuber crop

DAI 2000 200 200 200 200 1,000

3 Develop crop variety suitable to AEZ resilient to CC (include coastal zone).

2,3 GDA/CARDI

2,676 2,676 2,676 2,676 2,676 13,380

4 Promote research work on appropriate technology responding to climate change in Agricultural sector

2,3 GDACARDI

2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 11,500

5 Research and transferring of appropriate post-harvest technology

2,3 GDA, DAI, PDA

500 500 500 500 500 2,500

6 Development of knowledge and information system on climate change

2,3 GDA,CARDI 433 433 433 433 433 2,600

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Photo credits: Neil Palmer