s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 1

CCS: silver bullet ?or broken bridge?

stuart.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs/

ContextCaptureStorage

Problems

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 2

4 pillars of UK energy policy :Efficiency, Renewables, Nuclear, CCS

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 3

What is CCS ?

90% CO2 reduction on site75% along whole chain

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 4

Fluid deeper than 800m, rapid expansion may cool to ice

CO2 physical states

geotherm

alhydrate

Lo pressure Hi

surface

transport

storage

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 5

CO2 calculated emissions

6 yr trend Faster than the worst IPCC projection

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 6

Ocean is measurably more acid

Half of fossil CO2 emitted isdissolved in the ocean

CO2 + H2O = H+ + HCO3-

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 7

Climate and /or fossil fuel?

Not hereNoHereNOW

World plants by 2020at 450ppm = 54 x 2.4 GW

Do nothing CO2

Sustainable

Fossil fuels will still providemost of world energy to 2050

New plants from 202020/yr coal, 22/yr gas

450 ppm

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 8

Capture

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 9

Twin track approach

CarbonDioxide

Reduction

Increased efficiency,biomass cofiring ,

capture ready powerplant

Carbon Captureand Storage(CCS)

- -

Possible Now

Long Term TimeMedium Term

2012 2020

-23%

Baseline

- 40%

- 95% TRACK 2

TRACK 1

Drivers:

Improve efficiency initially 30 ==> 47% coal (may need boiler refit)

Add Capture by one of three methods - 2009 all equal cost

25% energypenalty ??

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 10

Post-Combustion

boiler

airfuel

CO2

source: Vattenfall

Post-combustion capture

Coal or gas + air ==> CO2 + H2O +N2

Proven at 10% size, not in power plant. Solvent scrub flue gas 2-12%CO2 (amine or ammonia). Needs new boiler & large site, retrofit

possible

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 11

Oxyfuel process

source: Vattenfall

Coal or gas + O2 + flue gas ==> CO2 + H2O

Oxyfuel combustion

N2

ASU

boiler

fuel

CO2

air O2

5 MWe experimental burners; Purify oxygen from air; retrofitburners and upper boiler; water removal => 100% CO2

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 12

Pre-combustion capture (IGCC)Pre-Combustion

CO2

gasifier

ASU

N2

air

GT

source: Vattenfall

Coal or gas + steam ==> CO + H2 ==> CO2 +H2

Experience at 30% scale; Gasify coal, or split methane, can be twosites; Pre-combustion gas cleanup; cheaper separation 32% CO2;

solvent dimethyl ether/methanol SELEXOL (future membrane ?);integrated process ==> hydrogen; large expensive plant

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 13

Capture penaltyNow 4 x 800 MWe3.2 GW for use

With CCS 5 x 800 MWe3.2 GW for use

Capture penalty25% 200912% by 2020 ?

If penalty 25%, 77% reduction

if penalty 12%, 80% reduction

16 Mt CO2 emitted +1.6 Mt 4 Mt CO2 emitted 3.6 Mt CO2 emitted

PC, 90% capture,10% emitted upstream

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 14

Storage

Annual UK power emissions 200 Mt CO2 wouldcover Edinburgh to 60m as gas, to 150mm as liquid

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 15

Regions of storagearound the UK

Scotland power 18 Mt CO2/yrUK power 200 Mt CO2/yr

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 16

Reservoir sandstones

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 17

Storage

CO2 fills microscopicpores in sandstone

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 18

Injection: buoyant, then lateral

Injection

Top seal mudrock

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 19

1 Mt CO2 / yr

Sleipner CO2 re-injection:demonstration size

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 20

Monitoring: seismic reflection

20

0m

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 21

Transport and Europe

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 22

Transport : pipes

USA more than3000 miles onshore

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 23

UK storage very large

mid-range valuesfrom EU FP6GeoCapacity

Uncertainty large: ± 10 x. Need large-scale testing

NorthEU 1.0Gt/yr

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 24

4 UKclusters

CCS clusters & offshore pipesOxyfire test : Renfrew

Test capture ANDstorage, develop chain

?

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 25

Fewlarge, or

manysmall

stores ?

Continentalpipes tooffshore$8 Bn/yrincome?

Haszeldine 2009 Science

MAJOR RISK

Needs REALTESTS

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 26

Acceleration of R&D&D&D

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 27

Prepare now, for large CCS

CCS is not first option, but longrun is cheaperPrepare CCS NOW, for 2020, reduces cost from $800 to $200

CCS by storage ingasfields, aquifers

or EOR

Prepare now, for here

CCS

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 28

World experiments getting bigger

UK first plant by 2014

UK plant 2,3, 4 by 2018

UK commercialplant from 2020

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 29

Funding: Pilot, Rollout

Cost decreaseswith experience

EU-A price increases

EU-ETS not sufficient. Need levy price, or Feed-in, or Mandate, or “ROC” s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 30

Extra cost to public

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 31

So far, so good,but

missing steps in the CCS bridge..

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 32

UK Legal and Regulation• International conventions OSPAR !

• International conventions LONDON !

• Owning the porespace, seabed…. !

• European CCS Directive to UK law !

• Onshore H & S , pipes, plant rules !

• Licensing of storage !

• Environmental impacts !

• CCS coal mandate & CCS-Ready !

• Levy for coal AND gas CCS !

• EPS (UK, EU) ?

Needs ratified

underway

underway

underway

Needs ratified

Claim agreed

Transferred

Enacted 300MW

coal output

Payment on coal

(and gas)

Debate

Focus on coal, offshore, ownership and licensing

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 33

Short project, long CO2 storage2010 2020Demo

Accurate baseline ==> firm predictions x 300 duration

7575

Storagepermit

(MemberState

and EC)

Baseline

Explorationpermit

(MemberState)

Monitoring (MemberState) yearly report

Monitoringpost-close

30 year! Bond

Effort in 100yr commitment

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 34

Learn and deploy rates

CCS is projected to be un-precedented rapid growthRequires circulation of information

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 35

EPS and CCS on gas plant

coal

gas

Illustrativetracks

Gas capture needed for transition to low CO2s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 36

Public understanding

Public objection to coal &storage - needs more work

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 37

The Aim: Reduce CO2 emissions

IEA: 100 commercial sized power projects by 2020Same again for CCS in industry (cement steel, refine..)

27 Gt /yr

CCS

Now

Scotland power 18 Mt CO2/yr UK power 183 Mt CO2/yr

1 G

t =

1,0

00

,00

0,0

00

to

nn

e

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 38

Projected CCS sites EUSix funded byEERecoveryPackage

Another sixbefore 2015?

Chosen forreadyness

andemploymentNeed to infillto 12 with

othertechnologies

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 39

Gaps still un-solvedPaying: World incentives / policy / price ?CO2 price MUCH too low, needs a base guaranteeConvincing China, (and India), USA

Speed: Learning and Deployment rates are extremely fast

Capture: Reduce capture penalty from 25%, to 10% or 5%

Storage: Volumes, integrity, handover period and liability

Guarantee: Fitting to established and new coal and gas plant

Operation: With variable renewables,

Diversion: Lock-in, Capture by BaU coal or oil lobby

Effectiveness: <75% overall CO2 reduction just a transition

Ensuring that EU, USA, Aus are a start, not a finishs.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 40

Summary

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

BaU CO2

by 20302030 CCS +renewables

• Fossil fuel use !"climate

• CCS needed to reduce CO2

• New chain, elements known

• Demonstrations active

• World activity too slow

• CCS is LARGE option

• UK well placed - 2014

• Not yet a global business

• Rapid scale-up “challenging”