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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd May 30, 2016

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Inox Wind Ltd.

No. of shares (m) 221.92

Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 4977/742.1

Current price (Rs/$) 224/3.3

Price target (Rs/$)

322/4.8

52 W H/L (Rs.) 472/217

Book Value (Rs/$) 82.3/1.2

Beta 1.28

Daily volume (avg. monthly) 816940

P/BV (FY17e/18e)

2.1/1.7

P/E (FY17e/18e) 9.6/7.7

EPS growth (FY16/17e/18e) 37.4/14.9/24.9

ROE (FY16/17e/18e) 28.1/24.9/24.3

OPM(FY16/17e/18e) 16.1/15.7/16.0

Net D/E ratio (FY16/17e/18e) .5/.4/.2

BSE Code 539083

NSE Code INOXWIND

Bloomberg INXW IN

Reuters INWN.BO

Shareholding pattern %

Promoters 85.6

MFs / Banks / FIs 4.8

FIIs 2.0

Govt. holding -

Non-promoter group -

Public & others 7.6

Total 100.0

As on March 31, 2016

Recommendation

BUY

Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0011

E- mail: [email protected]

Figures (Rs crs)

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17e

FY18e

Income from operations 1566.81 2709.93 4414.13 5352.53 6317.28

Other Income 9.14 45.86 47.76 53.32 57.90

EBIDTA (other income included) 185.40 471.74 756.72 893.66 1068.67

Adjusted PAT 132.27 296.43 451.86 519.39 648.97

EPS (Rs.) 6.61 14.82 20.36 23.40 29.24

EPS growth (%) -12.0 124.1 37.4 14.9 24.9

Company Brief IWL, one of the largest integrated wind power solution providers in India,

manufactures wind turbine generators and provides complete turnkey solutions

such as supply of WTG, land acquisition, infrastructure development, power

evacuation and operation & maintenance services. It manufactures major

components of WTGs, including nacelles, hubs, rotor blade sets and towers, at its

in-house facilities at Una (H.P.), Barwani district (M. P.) & Rohika, near

Ahmedabad.

Quarterly Highlights • FY16 saw the highest ever annual installation of 3472 MW in the wind energy

sector which increased the installed WTG base to ~27000 MW (15% y-o-y

growth). A target of 60000 MW is set by FY 2022. However, the sector might

suffer on account of the capping of the accelerated depreciation tax benefit at a

maximum of 40% from April 2017. • Inox’s turbine volumes saw an increase of 66% in Q4FY16 y-o-y whereas the

commissioning volumes rose by 328% in the same period. It carried out the

highest ever annual commissioning of 786 MW.

• With the new additions to its already assorted and reputed clientele, like the

Adani’s first order in the wind sector, the company boasts of a current order

book of 1104 MW as on March, 2016. It plans to emulate the success in states

like Gujarat, Rajasthan and Maharashtra in south India as well.

• The stock presently trades at 9.6x FY17e EPS of Rs. 23.40 and 7.7x FY18e EPS

of Rs. 29.24. The regulatory impetus, preference over solar power and

ambitious targets (60 GW in 2022 from 27 GW in 2016) set by the government

will drive growth of the sector; IWL deftly plans to lead the industry. The

almost impregnable moat which IWL has created around itself by acquiring

the perpetual licenses from AMSC (American Superconductors) will go a long

way in spurring its growth.

• Yet working capital concerns remain: net working capital (excluding cash and

inter corporate debt) zoomed to Rs 690 crs in FY16 from Rs 441 crs in the year

before. Consequently net debt ballooned to Rs 934 crs from Rs 165 crs. But with

slowdown in growth of wind energy industry, increase in working capital

requirements would somewhat lessen- Rs. 344 crs estimated for FY17 and Rs.

259 crs for FY18. Investor’s disproportionate focus on the balance sheet has led

to the stock valuations plumbing new depths. On balance we recommend

buying the stock with a revised target of Rs 322 (previous target Rs. 319) based

on 11xFY18e EPS over a period of one year. (peg ratio retained at 0.6)

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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd


[

Outlook & Recommendation

Outlook of Wind Energy Sector

In 2015, India announced plans to increase its renewable energy output to 175 GW by the year 2022, with 60 GW coming from

wind power alone. Steve Sawyer, Secretary General for the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), called this a “very ambitious

target” set by a government eager to overcome an antiquated electricity system in dramatic need of reform, adding that its

success will rely heavily on “a lot of investment in its dysfunctional market structure.”

With an installed capacity of 26904 MW (March 2016) of wind energy, renewable energy sources (excluding large

hydro)currently accounts for sub 15% % of India’s overall installed power capacity. Wind energy holds the major portion

of 65.09% (of 37010 MW total renewable energy capacity as on Aug, 15) and continues as the largest supplier of clean energy

(Numerical Data Source: CEA, NIWE, MNRE). 70% of wind generation happens during the five months duration from May to

September coinciding with southwest monsoon duration. Fiscal 2016 saw the highest ever annual installation of 3472 MW. This

has increased the installed WTG base to ~27000 MW (15% y-o-y growth).

Source: Wikipedia Source: IWL; Current Year = FY15

The long term future for wind is underpinned mainly by its order of competence and cost effectiveness in comparison with

other conventional fossil fuels. New products are being introduced with a notably improved yield curve and also to yoke wind

energy from low wind sites. Today India only gets 8.7% of its power from wind energy. Thus, there exists a credible prospect

for growth of wind turbine industry in India. The long term outlook of wind market continues to remain strong with

rationalization of tariff structure to ensure only players with superior technology and execution capabilities across wind rich

states would be emerging as the winners. The growth of the wind energy sector in India for the years to come will be sustained

by the unexploited resource availability.

Upbeat on the improved regulatory and financial environment, investors are expected to pour over $15 billion into

India’s wind energy sector by 2020, a report by ratings and research firm CRISIL. The Indian government has pledged the

continuance of significant incentives for the wind energy sector, such as accelerated depreciation and generation-based

incentive. However, the wind energy sector might take a major hit, with the Budget capping the accelerated depreciation tax

benefit at a maximum of 40% from April 2017. The government is also planning to launch the National Wind Energy Mission

which would accelerate the development of wind energy projects and open the offshore wind energy sector as well.

However this industry is still the focus of those customers who are ready to incur higher capital cost to generate higher returns.

Larger rotor blades and higher hub heights offer superior PLF (plant load factor), compensating for lower tariffs and still

generating attractive IRRs.

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Technical collaborations

IWL has a permanent exclusive license from AMSC (American Superconductors) to manufacture 2 MW WTGs, using its

proprietary know-how. Under the authorized agreement, IWL is required to purchase all ECS (Electronic Control Systems)

from AMSC. There are more than 7,000 turbines with an aggregate capacity of more than 15,000 MW profitably operating

across the globe based on AMSC technology. IWL’s WTGs are equipped with DFIG (Double Fed Induction Generator)

technology. IWL has entered into two strategic long term technological agreements with AMSC. One of the new agreements

with AMSC allows the manufacture of ECS for the wind turbines. This will now reduce long term dependency and create

long term safety incase AMSC is unable to supply to IWL. This alliance has not only helped in reducing the R&D

expenditure but also gives it a technological advancement edge. The other agreement provides access to custom-made rotor

blade-sets design through WINDnovation.

Enhanced supply chain management coupled with cost saving due to indigenization will help in reducing the foreign

exchange exposure of IWL (if IWL chooses to manufacture in future). Association of IWL and AMSC for the development of

3MW WTG for India will improve efficiency at a lower cost of generation providing it with cutting edge WTG technology.

IWL also has a license from Romax Technology, UK, which is a global provider of integrated software and services, for their

gear box designs.

Financials and Valuations

The two strategic agreements with AMSC will not only lead to an increase in IWL’s control of the supply chain but also lead

to significant cost savings due to indigenization of the ECS and help in reducing foreign exchange exposure as well. With

the launch of new 113 meter rotor diameter with a hub height of 120 meters which is 20% more efficient, 40% of the future

orders are expected to consist of this product itself. The descent of IWL in unexplored southern states like Kerela, Karnataka

and Tamil Nadu, is an attempt by the company to stay ahead of its competitors and to maintain a growth rate with is higher

than that of the industry as it has done in the past.

Source: CD Equisearch, IWL Source: CD Equisearch, IWL Source: CD Equisearch, IWL

A decreasing current ratio, increasing leverage and falling interest coverage underpins the rising debt of the company. The

total debt of the company rose by a startling 57.1% in FY15 and 68.7% in FY16. With an increase in sales, the company had

to purchase more and more components, the payment period of which is 3-6 months, depending on the credit period given

by the suppliers. The company also has a huge trade receivable component sitting on its Balance Sheet as on FY16. The trade

receivables in turn have risen by 69% in FY16 which is almost in line with the growth in revenues for FY16 (63%) which is

evident by a roughly stable debtors’ turnover ratio. Less than 10% of the receivables are more than 6 months old.

The 65% increase (y-o-y) in short term loans and advances in FY16 y-o-y is mainly due to inter corporate loans given to

subsidiaries, IWSL (Inox wind Infrastructure Services Ltd.) and IRL (Inox Renewables Ltd.), at an interest rate of 10% p.a.

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The turbine volumes stood at 826 MW in FY16 as compared to 578 MW in FY15 implying a growth of 42.9% y-o-y.

However there has been a significant pickup in the commissioning volumes which grew by a monumental 187% to 786

MW. The turbine volumes saw an increase of 66% in Q4FY16 y-o-y whereas the commissioning volumes rose by 328% in

the same period. We expect the turbine volumes and commissioning volumes to grow by 18-20% annually over the next

two years.

Source: CD Equisearch, IWL Source: CD Equisearch, IWL Source: CD Equisearch, IWL

At tariff of 4.7 or 4.5, the distribution companies are more amenable and are more welcoming to buying more renewable

energy. At Rs 5.50-6 there is only so much that distribution companies can buy because they perceive it to be expensive

power. Because of technological improvements and increasing reduction in the cost of energy, the return of investors

continues to remain very robust.

Source: IWL Source: IWL Source: IWL

Mainly due to delay of shipments in Q3- which were booked in Q4- the y-o-y figures of total income, EBITDA and PBT for

Q4FY16 have all seen a change of more than 90%. However PAT saw an increase by 77.5%. The phenomenal growth rate

witnessed this fiscal, especially the last quarter is not expected to continue, and given the fact that the base has gone up;

there would certainly be adjustments in the growth rate. Going forward the company still expects to maintain a healthy

growth rate of around 20%-30%.

With the new additions to its already diversified and reputed clientele, like the Adani’s first order in the wind sector, the

company boasts of a current order book of 1104 MW as on March, 2016. Incremental orders are expected to be undertaken

in the first quarter of the current fiscal as well. Winning new orders and more crucially, winning additional business from

existing clients is believed to be more important than hunting for big contracts. This belief is further strengthened by Inox’s

client mining skills. It has maintained optimism about future order inflows, on the back of government’s focus on

renewable sector and also IWLs strong market positioning and capex pipeline of independent power producers (IPPs). The

sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% over the next five years and Inox plans to grab a larger market share as it

moves forward.

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Source: IWL Source: CD Equisearch, IWL

The stock presently trades at 9.6x FY17e EPS of Rs. 23.40 and 7.7x FY18e EPS of Rs. 29.24. The regulatory impetus, preference

over solar power and ambitious targets (60 GW in 2022 from 27 GW in 2016) set by the government will drive growth of the

sector; IWL deftly plans to lead the industry. The almost impregnable moat which IWL has created around itself by acquiring

the perpetual licenses from AMSC will go a long way in spurring its growth. Yet working capital concerns remain: net working

capital (excluding cash and inter corporate debt) zoomed to Rs. 690 crs in FY16 from Rs. 441 crs in the year before.

Consequently net debt ballooned to Rs. 934 crs from Rs. 165 crs. But with slowdown in growth of wind energy industry,

increase in working capital requirements would somewhat lessen- Rs. 344 crs in FY17 and Rs. 259 crs in FY18. Investor’s

disproportionate focus on the balance sheet has led to the stock valuations plumbing new depths. On balance we recommend

buying the stock with a revised target of Rs 322 (previous target Rs. 319) based on 11xFY18e EPS over a period of one year. (peg

ratio retained at 0.6) (For more info refer to our previous report dated 29th Feb, 2016.)

Risks and Concerns

Competitive Landscaping

Competition for IWL arises in the form of many multinationals, Indian and Asian players. Competition is based on the

performance of WTGs, price, site selection, reliability, product quality, technology, and the scope and quality of services,

including operations and maintenance services, training offered to customers and technical factors including industry

experience, technical ability, past performance, reputation for quality, safety record and the size of previous contracts executed

for similar projects. Additionally, while these are important considerations, price is a major factor in most tender awards and

negotiated contracts

Dependence on customers

As such there can be no guarantee that the orders will be confirmed and executed, and that binding contacts will not be

cancelled or reduced and that payment will be received as per the mentioned terms in the orders. Adverse conditions in the

global financial markets, any delay or failure to obtain the necessary permits, authorizations, permissions or other factors

beyond control or the control of customers may cause customers to postpone or cancel a project. These coupled with payment

postponement, payment default, execution difficulty and disputes with customers will affect the results of the operations

Regulatory changes

Changes in the government policies and support for the infrastructure sector, especially the renewable energy sector, affects

the growth prospects and results of the operations. The reduction in policy incentives such as accelerated depreciation and

generation based incentives together with hike in duties and taxes can have an adverse impact on the manufacturers and wind

installations.

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Forex Fluctuation

Fluctuation in the value of the rupee against foreign currencies may have an adverse effect on the company’s results of

operations. Un-hedged trade and financial exposure thus creates potential to adversely impact projects and overall

profitability.

Others

The cost of raw materials and components that are outsourced from third parties constitutes a significant part of the operating

expenses. The timely and cost-effective production of the final goods and services is dependent on the adequate and timely

supply of key materials, in addition to components. A new plant has been recently commissioned in Madhya Pradesh. The

experience which has been gained from the completed projects in Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Gujarat may not be fully

relevant or applicable to the development of future wind energy projects in Madhya Pradesh.

Cross Sectional Analysis

Company Equity* CMP mcap Sales* Profit*

OPM

(%)

NPM

(%)

Int

cov.

ROE

(%) DER

Mcap

/sales P/BV P/E

Suzlon 998 16 8083 11217 -1588 3.4 -14.2 -0.0 - -1.5 0.7 -1.1 -

Inox Wind 222 224 4977 4414 452 16.1 10.2 7.5 28.1 0.8 1.1 2.7 11.0 *figures in crores; calculations on ttm basis

Source: CD Equisearch, Companies Source: CD Equisearch, Companies Source: CD Equisearch, Companies

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Financials

Quarterly Results- Consolidated Figures in crs

Q4FY16 Q4FY15 % chg FY16 FY15 % chg

Income From Operations 1828.65 930.05 96.6 4414.13 2709.93 62.9

Other Income 20.13 3.85 422.9 47.76 45.86 4.1

Total Income 1848.78 933.9 98 4461.89 2755.8 61.9

Total Expenditure 1516.33 759.67 99.6 3705.18 2284.05 62.2

EBITDA (other income included) 332.45 174.23 90.8 756.71 471.74 60.4

Interest 25.42 15.83 60.6 95.95 62.25 54.1

Depreciation 10.6 5.63 88.3 33.36 20.35 63.9

PBT 296.43 152.77 94 627.4 389.14 61.2

Tax 87.2 34.89 149.9 175.54 92.71 89.3

Adjusted PAT 209.23 117.88 77.5 451.86 296.43 52.4

EPS(Rs) 9.43 5.89 60 20.36 14.82 37.4

Income Statement- Consolidated Figures in crs

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17e FY18e

Income From Operations 1566.81 2709.93 4414.13 5352.53 6317.28

Growth (%) 48 73 62.9 21.3 18

Other Income 9.14 45.86 47.76 53.32 57.9

Total Income 1575.95 2755.8 4461.89 5405.85 6375.18

Total Expenditure 1390.54 2284.05 3705.18 4512.18 5306.51

EBITDA (other income included) 185.4 471.74 756.71 893.66 1068.67

Interest 46 62.25 95.95 122.78 109.1

Depreciation 11.61 20.35 33.36 49.51 58.22

PBT 127.79 389.14 627.4 721.37 901.35

Tax -4.48 92.71 175.54 201.98 252.38

Adjusted PAT 132.27 296.43 451.86 519.39 648.97

EPS (Rs) 6.61 14.82 20.36 23.4 29.24

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Balance Sheet Figures in crores


Sources of Funds

Share Capital 200 221.92 221.92 221.92 221.92

Reserves 227.79 1169.99 1621.87 2141.24 2790.21

Total Shareholders’ Funds 427.79 1391.91 1843.79 2363.16 3012.13

Long Term Debt 55 77.92 50.88 60.00 65.00

Total Liabilities 482.79 1469.83 1894.67 2423.16 3077.13

Application of Funds

Gross Block 205.62 255.01 677.17 797.17 932.17

Less: Accumulated Depreciation 31.75 52.21 85.57 135.08 193.31

Net Block 173.86 202.8 591.6 662.09 738.87

Capital Work in Progress 25.46 49.11 20.00 125.00 15.00

Investments 45.00 0.00 62.22 65.00 70.00

Current Assets, Loans & Advances

Inventory 270.68 423.82 541.64 641.39 757.16

Trade Receivables 709.58 1432.18 2414.32 2897.18 3331.76

Cash and Bank 4.02 709.61 478.77 433.19 579.96

Short term loans 111.65 235.53 389.31 383.81 407.93

Other Assets 37.7 29.03 53.92 60.00 75.00

Total CA 1133.62 2830.17 3877.96 4415.58 5151.81

Current Liabilities 974.4 1669.23 2773.45 2975.98 3030.5

Provisions-Short term 3.68 52.34 43.95 40.54 50.62

Total Current Liabilities 978.08 1721.56 2817.4 3016.52 3081.11

Net Current Assets 155.54 1108.61 1060.56 1399.06 2070.70

Net Deferred Tax -15.11 1.45 -10.10 -15.10 -20.10

Net long term assets ( net of liabilities) 98.04 107.87 170.39 187.11 202.67

Total Assets 482.79 1469.83 1894.67 2423.16 3077.13

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Key Financial Ratios


Growth Ratios (%)

Revenue 48.0 73.0 62.9 21.3 18.0

EBITDA -7.9 154.4 60.4 18.1 19.6

Net Profit -12.0 124.1 52.4 14.9 24.9

EPS -12.0 124.1 37.4 14.9 24.9

Margins (%)

Operating Profit Margin 11.2 15.7 16.1 15.7 16.0

Gross Profit Margin 8.9 15.1 15.0 14.4 15.2

Net Profit Margin 8.4 10.9 10.2 9.7 10.3

Return (%)

ROCE 21.0 21.2 18.7 17.2 18.4

RONW 36.7 32.6 28.1 24.9 24.3

Valuations

Market Cap/ Sales - - 1.3 0.9 0.8

EV/EBITDA - - 8.9 6.6 5.5

P/E - - 12.8 9.6 7.7

P/BV - - 3.2 2.1 1.7

Other Ratios

Interest Coverage 3.8 7.3 7.5 6.9 9.3

Debt Equity 1.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4

Net Debt Equity 1.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2

Current Ratio 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7

Turnover Ratios

Fixed Asset Turnover 9.5 14.5 10.7 8.8 9.2

Total Asset Turnover 3.5 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3

Debtors Turnover 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.0

Inventory Turnover 7.9 6.6 7.7 7.6 7.6

Creditor Turnover 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.4

WC Ratios

Debtor Days 140.9 144.2 159.0 181.1 179.9

Inventory Days 46.0 55.5 47.6 47.8 48.1

Creditor Days 85.2 91.3 93.5 104.8 106.9

Cash Conversion Cycle 101.6 108.4 113.1 124.1 121.1

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Financial Summary – US dollar denominated

million $ FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17e FY18e

Equity capital 33.3 35.5 33.5 33.1 33.1

Shareholders’ funds 71.2 222.4 278.0 352.4 449.2

Total debt 92.6 139.7 222.4 210.8 171.9

Net fixed assets (incl CWIP) 33.2 40.2 92.2 117.4 112.4

Investments 7.5 0.0 9.4 9.7 10.4

Net current assets 25.9 177.1 159.9 208.6 308.8

Total assets 80.3 234.8 285.6 361.3 458.9

Revenues 259.0 443.2 674.3 798.2 942.0

EBITDA 30.6 77.1 115.6 133.3 159.4

EBDT 23.0 67.0 100.9 115.0 143.1

PBT 21.1 63.6 95.8 107.6 134.4

PAT 21.9 48.5 69.0 77.4 96.8

EPS($) 0.11 0.24 0.31 0.35 0.44

Book value ($) 0.35 1.00 1.24 1.58 2.01

*income statement figures translated at average rates; balance sheet at year end rates; projections at current rates All dollar denominated figures are adjusted for extraordinary items.

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buy: >20%

accumulate: >10% to ≤20% hold: ≥-10% to ≤10% reduce: ≥-20% to <-10% sell: <-20%

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