c:\documents and settings\kthibodeau\desktop\sales and t rx share brands and generics
TRANSCRIPT
US market growth recovers to 4.2% in MAT November
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Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Nov. 2009
YTD Growth is 4.8%
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US Growth Rate
Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit Plus, Nov. 2009
US prescription growth recovers to 2.5% MAT November 2009
YTD Growth is 2.1%
US to be impacted by continued patent expiries, and historically low contribution from new products
Source: IMS Health, Market Prognosis, IMS Consulting, Sep 2009
US market growth: 2009 4.5-5.5%; 2010 3-5%
•Protected brands price growth•Increasing generic volume and less price deflation•Approvals of innovative therapies•Few notable safety events•Demographic factors
•Protected brands volume decline•Patent expiries•Slow uptake of recently launched products•Greater substitution of generics
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2005 2006 2007 2008 MAT Nov 2009 YTD Nov 2009
% G
RO
WT
H T
Rx
Total market
Generics
Brands
TRx growth brands and generics
Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit, Nov 2009, Branded generics disaggregated
Branded Generics Disaggregated
%Dollars %Total prescriptions dispensed
86.4% 85.5% 84.4% 83.8% 83.3% 82.4%
45.8% 42.3%38.8%
34.7%30.5% 28.0%
13.6% 14.5% 15.6% 16.2% 16.7% 17.6%
54.2%57.7% 61.2%
65.3%69.5% 72.0%
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD
Nov
2009
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD
Nov
2009
% M
AR
KE
T S
HA
RE
Brands Generics
Sales and TRx share brands and generics
Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Nov 2009, National Prescription Audit, Nov 2009, Branded generics disaggregated
Branded Generics Disaggregated
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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S$BN
0%
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% O
F P
RIO
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EAR'S
SALES
Const US$bn
% of Prior Year's Sales
$91 billion opportunity in the US through 2013
Value of products at risk 2003-2013
Source: IMS Health, MIDAS, Market Segmentation, MAT Jun 2009
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Black box warnings have declined after a peak in 2007
Source: FDA MedWatch, Oct 2009
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LACKBO
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ARN
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•Cimzia
•Efient
•Entereg
•Multaq
•Promacta
•Simponi
•Vimpat
24 REMS Apr-Dec 2008
31 REMS Jan-Jul 2009
Major 2008 & 2009NCEs with REMS
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1411 12
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009YTD
Primary care driven
Specialist driven
FDA approvals in 2008 are skewed towards specialist driven and niche therapies
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MBER O
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Source: FDA, IMS Health, Market Insights Team Analysis, Oct 2009
Growth is strong in classes not impacted by patent expiration or safety
US$mn% Market
Share % Growth
US Industry 295,379 100.0 3.6
1 Lipid regulators 16,945 5.7 -0.9
2 Antipsychotics,oth 14,278 4.8 0.8
3 Proton pump inhib 13,842 4.7 -0.9
4 Anti-depressants 11,374 3.9 -2.7
5 Angiotensin II antagonists 8,145 2.8 11.7
6 Antineo monoclonal antib 7,850 2.7 9.3
7 Seizure disorders 6,428 2.2 -33.5
8 Erythropoietins 6,353 2.2 -11.6
9 Antiarth,biol resp mod 6,150 2.1 13.5
10 Analogs of human insulin 6,000 2.0 26.8
Top 10 97,365 33.0 -1.1
MAT Sep 2009
Leading classes
Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Sep 2009
Double-digit growth very common in next tier therapy classes
Leading classes US$mn% Market
Share% Growth
11 Anti-platelets,oral 5,838 2.0 15.7
12 Analeptics 5,535 1.9 22.5
13 Steroid,inhaled bronch 5,269 1.8 12.2
14 GI anti-inflam 4,744 1.6 12.8
15 Codeine & comb 4,674 1.6 14.5
16 Glitazones 4,633 1.6 3.4
17 HIV antiviral combination 4,559 1.5 16.1
18 Immune system adjuncts 3,979 1.3 -2.3
19 Anticoag,inj 3,891 1.3 12.5
20 Alzheimer-type dementia 3,812 1.3 15.2
Top 20 144,300 48.9 2.9
MAT Sep 2009
Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Sep 2009
Absolute growth – top 10 therapies
DollarsAC
US$mn Total Rx dispensed
AC
TRxs mn
Analogs of human insulin 1268.0 Lipid regulators 9.4
Analeptics 1015.4 Codeine & comb 7.0
Angiotensin II antagonists 853.4 Proton pump inhib 6.5
Anti-platelets,oral 793.4 Seizure disorders 5.8
Antiarth,biol resp mod 731.6 Vitamin D 5.2
Antineo monoclonal antib 667.0 Anti-depressants 5.2
Dpp-4 Inhib 638.7 Analeptics 3.7
HIV antiviral combination 630.7 Analogs of human insulin 3.2
Codeine & comb 592.9 Non-barb,oth 3.0
UT benign prostate 583.7 Alpha-beta blocker 2.7
Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, National Prescription Audit, Sep 2009