cdw recommendation

25
TEAM INDEX Image from: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CDW_Logo.svg

Upload: others

Post on 31-Oct-2021

5 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: CDW RECOMMENDATION

TEAM INDEX

Image from: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CDW_Logo.svg

Page 2: CDW RECOMMENDATION

CDW RECOMMENDATION

This recommendation due to the following reasons:• Large Debt Position• Specialized Target Customers• Multi-Model Valuation

Valuation Date: January 4, 2018

Current Price: $72.93

Ticker: CDW

Recommendation: Hold

Target Price: $75.33

Upside: +3.19%

Image from: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CDW_Logo.svg

Page 3: CDW RECOMMENDATION

VALUATION

5Y Growth DCF $ 87.61

5Y EBITDA DCF $ 72.53

5Y Revenue DCF $ 70.08

DDM Stable $ 42.51

DDM Multi-Stage $ 52.06

P/E Multiples $ 67.49

EBITDA Multiples $ 69.54

Revenue Multiples $ 100.87

5Y Growth DCF

5Y EBITDA DCF

5Y Revenue DCFDDM Stable

DDM Multi-Stage

P/E Multiples

EBITA MultiplesRevenue Multiples

Page 4: CDW RECOMMENDATION

BACKGROUND

• MPK Computing – 1984

• Lincolnshire, IL

• Technology Sector

• IT Services Industry

• June 27, 2013

• Kelway

• IT Market – 890 billion

• Addressable market – 32.5%

Image from: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CDW_Logo.svg

Page 5: CDW RECOMMENDATION

Notebooks/MobileDevices Netcomm Products Desktops Enterprise and Data

Storage Other Hardware Software Services Other

2014 19.50 13.40 8.80 8.50 28.80 17.10 3.10 0.102015 19.50 14.70 7.50 8.20 29.20 16.60 3.60 0.702016 21.00 14.00 7.50 7.60 28.50 17.20 4.10 0.10

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

REV

ENU

E IN

MIL

LIO

NS

CDW Revenue Product Breakdown

2014 2015 2016 CDW 10-K P.7

Page 6: CDW RECOMMENDATION

0.98

1.76

0.69

1.08

1.82

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Beta

CDW Amazon Verizon IBM HP

2.99

6.15

7.36

6.14

1.48

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

EPS

EPS 2017

CDW Amazon Verizon IBM HP

Page 7: CDW RECOMMENDATION

Strengths

• Brand Name• Adaptable Sales Force• Business Markets

Weaknesses

• High Sales Team Turnover• Debt• Suppliers are Competitors

Opportunities

• International Expansion• New Technology• Emerging Markets

Threats

• Brexit• High Competition• Tax Bill

SWOT ANALYSIS

Image from: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CDW_Logo.svg

Page 8: CDW RECOMMENDATION

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Year Revenue Net Income EPS Gross Profit

MarginOperating

Profit MarginNet Profit Margin

2012 10,128.20 119.00 0.82 16.48% 5.04% 1.17%2013 10,768.60 132.80 0.85 16.35% 4.70% 1.23%2014 12,074.50 244.90 1.44 15.91% 5.57% 2.03%2015 12,988.70 403.10 2.37 16.29% 5.71% 3.10%2016 13,981.90 424.40 2.59 16.64% 5.86% 3.04%2017 15,155.65 583.22 2.99 16.68% 6.08% 3.85%2018 16,427.94 801.47 3.45 16.72% 6.32% 4.88%2019 17,807.04 1,101.40 3.97 16.76% 6.56% 6.19%2020 19,301.90 1,513.57 4.58 16.81% 6.81% 7.84%RATE 8.39% 37.42% 15.34% 0.24% 3.80% 26.78%

Margin calculations shown in Appendix A

Page 9: CDW RECOMMENDATION

POOR DEBT POSITION

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

3700

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Dollars (millions)

Total Debt

Debt Calculations given in Appendix C

48%52%

2016 Total Debt

Variable Rate

Fixed Rate

Page 10: CDW RECOMMENDATION

COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS

CDW IBM Verizon Amazon HP

51.56%

31.89%

91.74%

12.90%19.39%

RETURN ON EQUITY

CDW IBM Verizon Amazon HP

7.52%

6.07%

12.00%

2.79%

8.10%

RETURN ON ASSETS

CDW IBM Verizon Amazon

5.59

20.57

5.80 5.49

TIMES INTEREST EARNED

Calculations shown in Appendix C

Page 11: CDW RECOMMENDATION

INVESTMENT SHORTCOMINGS

Competition• IBM, HP, Amazon, Verizon

Debt• $3.2 billion long-term debt• $580 million short-term obligations

Page 12: CDW RECOMMENDATION

INVESTMENT DRIVERSTarget Customers

• Small/Mid Size Business• Room to gain market share

Increasing Yearly Income• Top of business cycle

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year

Net Income

Page 13: CDW RECOMMENDATION

INVESTMENT RISKSForeign Currency Risk

• Canadian Dollar• British Pound

Business Risks• Loss of vendor contracts• Inability to cover large debt position

Image from: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CDW_Logo.svg

Page 14: CDW RECOMMENDATION

TEAM INDEX

Image from: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CDW_Logo.svg

Page 15: CDW RECOMMENDATION

APPENDIX AYear Revenue Net Income COGS Gross Profit Margin Gross Profit Inc from Operations Operating Profit Margin Net Profit Margin

2012 10,128.20 119.00 8,459.00 16.4807% 1669.6 510.6 5.0414% 1.17%

2013 10,768.60 132.80 9,008.00 16.3494% 1760.3 506.6 4.7044% 1.23%

2014 12,074.50 244.90 10,153.00 15.9137% 1921.3 673 5.5737% 2.03%

2015 12,988.70 403.10 10,873.00 16.2888% 2115.8 742 5.7127% 3.10%

2016 13,981.90 424.40 11,655.00 16.6422% 2327.2 819.2 5.8590% 3.04%

2017 15155.65 583.22 16.6829% 6.0833% 3.85%

2018 16427.94 801.47 16.7236% 6.3163% 4.88%

2019 17807.04 1101.40 16.7644% 6.5581% 6.19%

2020 19301.90 1513.57 16.8053% 6.8092% 7.84%

RATE 1.0839 1.3742 1.0024 1.0383 1.27

Page 16: CDW RECOMMENDATION

APPENDIX BAnn E. Ziegler, senior vice president & chief financial officer, CDW. "Annual dividend increases are an important component of our capital allocation strategy, along with share repurchases and strategic acquisitions, to deliver value to our shareholders just as we've delivered value to our customers and partners for more than 30 years.“

November 1, 2017

Page 17: CDW RECOMMENDATION

APPENDIX C

Total DebtVariable Rate 1552 0.48109113Fixed Rate 1674 0.51890887

CDW IBM Verizon Amazon HPReturn on Equity 51.56% 31.89% 91.74% 12.90% 19.39%Reutrn on Assets 7.52% 6.07% 12.00% 2.79% 8.10%Times Interest Earned 5.59 20.57 5.80 5.49Earnings before Int. and Tax 818,900 12,960,000 25,362,000 4,654,000Interest expense 146,500 630,000 4,376,000 848,000

Data from CDW 10-K andhttps://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CDW/analysis-and-news?analysis_tab=focus&news_tab=latest-news

Page 18: CDW RECOMMENDATION

Growth 5-Year DCF Model

Format and Algorithms provided by FinBox.io

APPENDIX D

Page 19: CDW RECOMMENDATION

5 year EBITDA DCF

Format and Algorithms provided by FinBox.io

APPENDIX E

Page 20: CDW RECOMMENDATION

5-Year Revenue DCF

Format and Algorithms provided by FinBox.io

APPENDIX F

Page 21: CDW RECOMMENDATION

DDM Stable Growth

Format and Algorithms provided by FinBox.io

APPENDIX G

Page 22: CDW RECOMMENDATION

DDM Multi-Stage

Format and Algorithms provided by FinBox.io

APPENDIX H

Page 23: CDW RECOMMENDATION

EBITDA MULTIPLES

Format and Algorithms provided by FinBox.io

APPENDIX I

Page 24: CDW RECOMMENDATION

P/E Multiples

Format and Algorithms provided by FinBox.io

APPENDIX J

Page 25: CDW RECOMMENDATION

Revenue Multiples

Format and Algorithms provided by FinBox.io

APPENDIX K