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CELIMO International Meeting Presentations
EMO Hannover, Wednesday 20th September 2017
The Countries of CELIMO
• CELIMO covers 12 European countries
o Austria
o Belgium
o Germany
o Finland
o Sweden
o Switzerland
o Turkey
o United Kingdom
o France
o Italy
o Netherlands
o Spain
• We also have an Associate Member in Hungary
Who are our Members?
• The CELIMO Associations represent Distributors and Importers of Machine Tools, Tooling and Technologies
• Although there is some overlap, 50% supply machine tools, 30% tooling, with the remaining 20% in other equipment
• 58% are of companies are sales subsidiaries and 42% are independent companies
AGENDA
International Presentations
EUROPE, Mr Geoff Noon, CELIMO Secretary
INDIA, Mr P Ramadas, President IMTMA
USA, Mr Pat McGibbon, AMT Vice-President, Strategic Analytics
JAPAN, Mr Hiroshi Usami, JMTDA Executive Director
The economic charts will focus mainly on the European Union area as a whole, but we will look at individual countries in some cases.
The European economy overall is growing at its fastest pace since 2010 and, as we shall see in this presentation, the prospects for most countries look positive.
This is probably the last time we will look back at the “great recession”, but it is worth noting a wide variation in the recovery experiences.
Germany was first out of the blocks and by the end of 2010 it had got back to the pre-recession size of the economy.
Although the UK took longer to recover, it is now progressing as well as Germany in relation to its pre-recession size. Spain and Italy had two phases to their recession; while the Spanish economy has now got back to its pre-recession size, Italy still has a long way to go.
This economic recovery is driving down unemployment in Europe. The Euro-area unemployment rate of 9.1% in July is the lowest since February 2009 and for the EU28, the rate of 7.7% in July is the lowest since December 2008. In the separate countries, the unemployment rate ranges from 2.9% in Czech Republic up to 17.1% in Spain (overall, some areas much less, others much more) and 21.7% in Greece.
Having been stable for about 12 months, inflation started to rise in Europe around the middle of 2016, but in recent months it has started to fall back a little.
There is a wide variation in inflation rates across Europe. Some countries, most notably perhaps the UK, are affected by a significant weakening of the exchange rate - I promise not to mention the “B” word! - but it is less clear why inflation is so high in small countries such as Estonia and Lithuania.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the Euro-zone is at its highest level for over 6 years, matching the reading recorded in June. Traditionally, this has a good correlation to the output trends.
The good news is well spread among the countries included in the overall Euro-zone PMI.
Austria, Netherlands, Germany, Italy and France are all at or close to their highest level for six years. Perhaps the one concern is Spain, but this has been strong recently and this may just be a pause - after all, a PMI of 52.4 still points to a reasonable level of expansion in the manufacturing sector.
In line with this, we have seen Industrial Production in Europe on a steady upward trend for some time and although it is not quite back to its pre-recession level (which is just about still on this chart!), it looks set to continue towards that point.
This chart looks at the key customer industries.
The Automotive and Aerospace industries (the latter being the largest element of “other transport”) are both operating at record levels.
Neither Machinery - which was most exposed to global issues such as the oil price and the Chinese construction downturn - or Metal Products has managed to get back to its pre-recession level, but the recent trends suggest that both industries are, at last, starting to see some improvement.
There has not been much movement in capacity utilisation levels, but most of the major economies are operating at general high levels and are trending upwards.
The chart shows the data for the individual countries, but you should note that the levels and trigger points for investment to expand capacity will vary between countries; you cannot, therefore, make a direct comparison of the levels, although the trends within and between the countries are valid.
Exchange rates are a key driver of relative competitiveness between economies. It is also worth bearing in mind that the drivers of this can come from either one of the currencies involved or both at the same time and not necessarily in the same direction.
Against the US$, the Euro had been relatively weak since the start of 2015, but it has been strengthening over the past six months.
The movement against the Swiss Franc that took place in just 1 hour when the Swiss Central bank withdrew its support is also clear and, again, it is only relatively recently that the Euro has started to strengthen again.
The trends against the GB£ and the Yen are, perhaps, less clear, but the upshot is that both are now close to the level they were at when this chart beings in 2005!
We have data for the source of imports into the CELIMOcountries, although not the value of imports from the smaller European countries which were not included in the analysis, except where some respondents have given the data for one or two extra countries. Another complication is the re-exports from Belgium; some of these originated in Europe, while others came from outside the region.
Including all imports from Belgium, 62.6% of total imports into the CELIMO countries came from elsewhere in Europe; excluding all imports from Belgium reduces the percentage to 60.4%. However, allowing for “genuine” exports from Belgium of machines originating in other European countries, we can be fairly certain that the final percentage is likely to be around 62%.
Germany remains the most important source of imports into the CELIMO countries, with Switzerland the most important source of machine tool imports into Germany.
This is calculated using Production - Exports + Imports; any issues with any of these series can affect the result. Other Asia in this case is defined as South Korea + Taiwan + India.
Machine Tool Consumption in the CELIMO area grew by +2.0% in 2016 to €14.9 billion, the best since 2008, but still a long way off that figure (which was €16.7 billion).
The machine tool market grew in 6 of the CELIMOcountries and fell in 6; the largest increase was in Italy in both percentage and value terms, while the largest decline in percentage terms was in Finland and by value in Switzerland.
The German machine tool market is almost back to the “boom” level that we saw in 2008 and it accounts for about 40% of the CELIMO area total.
The Italian economy struggled to recover from the recession for a few years, but since 2013 it to has been on an upward trend, helped recently by incentives to invest in high-technology equipment.
Turkey is the 3rd largest European machine tool having overtaken France, Switzerland and Spain during the recession. However, it has plateaued somewhat since 2012.
The trend for the UK is distorted by exchange rate changes, most notably perhaps the extent of the growth in 2014, but since that peak we have seen demand fall back a little.
The dip in the Swiss market is, at least in part, a reflection of the exchange rate change in January 2015.
France has seen a recovery over the past couple of years, although it still has a little way to go before it is back to its pre-recession level.
Spain, like Italy, took some time to recover, but there has been strong growth since 2014.
Overall, we have a picture of a strong European economy, with some parts of the manufacturing and engineering industries leading the way.
The general outlook for 2018 is positive for most of the European markets, although the longer term is more uncertain, not least because of the uncertainty of the impact of Brexit, although it is clear that the UK (and probably Ireland) will be hardest hit.
INDIAN MACHINE TOOLMANUFACTURERS’ ASSOCIATION
CELIMO NETWORKING MEETING20 September 2017, Hannover
IMTMA at a Glance
Constituted in 1946
Single point of contact for Indian Machine Tool Industry
Represents over 90% of organised machine tool and allied equipment manufacturers
Membership of 470+ companies
Indian Economy- at a Glance (2016)
GDP : $ 2.26 trillion (nominal) (2016)
$ 8.66 trillion (PPP) (2016)
GDP Growth: 7.1% (2016-17)
Exports : $ 276.5 billion (2016-17)
Imports : $ 469.5 billion (2016-17)
Source: IMF data Apr. 2017,& Fin Ministry GOI
18.5
7
11.2
1
4.93
3.47
2.62
2.46
2.26
1.85
1.79
1.53
0.002.004.006.008.00
10.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.00
US
Ch
ina
Jap
an
Ger
man
y
UK
Fra
nce
Ind
ia
Ital
y
Bra
zil
Can
ada
GDP in US$ Tn
21.2918.57
8.665.23 3.98 3.14 2.78 2.73 2.23 1.68
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ch
ina
US
Ind
ia
Jap
an
Ger
man
y
Bra
zil
UK
Fra
nce
Ital
y
Can
ada
GDP IN PPP TnAgriculture 15.2%
Services 53.6%
Industry 31.2%
Mfg 18.1%
Sector Share in GDP(%) 2016-17
India Positivism
Fastest growing major economy of the world.
Government Thrust to take India’s GDP to $20 trillion in next twenty years.
Make in India policy aims to :
Promote investments in the manufacturing sector Increase share of manufacturing in GDP to 25% by 2025
India has moved up 16 positions to rank 39th on a global index of the world's most competitive economies.
GST – to enhance ease of doing business in India.
FDI inflows to India during 2016-17 was US$ 60 billion (largest among all countries)
Indian Machine Tool Industry
India Ranked 12th in Production and 8th in the Consumption as per 2017 Gardner’s report on world machine tool consumption.
Consumption has increased by 12% during 2016-17 and production increased by 23% during same period.
40% increase in new orders during 2017-18 (Apr-Aug)
Machine Tool Consumption Trend2013-14 to 2020-21
Source: IMTMA
571682 716
8531024
12291475
1770
12961494 1572
1708
1964
2259
2598
2988
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18E 2018-19P 2019-20P 2020-21P
Production Consumption
Val
ue
in
US
D M
illio
n
Indian Machine Tool Industry –Growth Drivers
Indian Automotive industry envisaged to be thirdlargest in the world by 2026
Automobile manufacturing to be the main driver of ‘Make In India’. Passenger Vehicle production is envisaged to grow at a CAGR of 6% till 2026.
Defence manufacturing opened to private sector
Modernization of Railway Coaches – USD 1176 Mn
Introduction of High speed trains and Bullet Trains
Strong Demand for Consumer durables
Source: Automotive Mission Plan 2016-26, http://www.makeinindia.com
Indian Machine Tool Industry
India makes Standard Products and Special Purpose Machines
:Important ManufacturersACE Designers, AMS, BFW, Electropneumatics, Hindustan Hydraulics, HMT, ISGEC ,Jyoti CNC LMW, Lokesh, Micromatic Grinding, & others…
Major products
CNC Turning Machines
Machining centers
Grinding machines
Boring machines
Vertical Turret Lathe
EDMs / Wire EDM
Inspection and CMMs
Special Purpose Machines
Metal Forming Machines
Presses and Press brakes
Accessories, Tools and Components
Tool turrets Rotary tables Bar feeders Spindles Deburring Tools & Moulds Cutting tools Form tools Tool holders Special tools
Addison, Bipico, Bhukanwala, Chennai Metco, Dagger Master, Fenwick & Ravi, Forbes, Hittco, Ind-Sphinx, Kennametal, Miven Mayfran, PARI, Pragati, Rajamane, Sandvik, SECO, Span, Taegutec, UCAM, Universal, Walter, and others….
Chucks Chip conveyors Coolant systems Robotics and Automation
Major Products:
Important Manufacturers:
Tooled up solutions
TPM friendly
Contemporary design
Reliable performance
After sales support
Cost effective, high quality, reliable and customised solutions
Strong backward integration
Industry 4.0 ready
USP of Indian Machine Tools
Export Competitiveness
Major Exports to - China, Germany,Italy, Turkey, Middle East, USA, Korea,etc.
No language difficulty
Ideal opportunity for dealers to sell competitive products
Indian Companies’ Overseas Ventures
ACE MICROMATIC GROUP
BFW
GRIND MASTER MACHINES
HMT MACHINE TOOLS
JYOTI CNC AUTOMATION
UCAM
and many more…..
Major Indian Companies with Global Footprints
32 Indian Companies are participating at EMO 2017
Company Name Hall No Stand Position
Ace Designers Ltd. Hall 17 Stand F09
Ace Manufacturing Systems Ltd. Hall 17 Stand F07
Birla Precision Technologies Ltd. Hall 6 Stand L90
Chennai Metco Pvt. Ltd. Hall 6 Stand E42
Emkay Tools Hall 4 Stand B114
Forbes & Company Ltd. Hall 4 Stand F96
Grind Master Machines Pvt. Ltd. Hall 11 Stand A65
IND-SPHINX Precision Ltd. Hall 5 Stall B101
Jyoti CNC Automation Ltd. Hall 27 Stand D70
Pragati Automation Pvt. Ltd. Hall 17 Stand A03
Precision Machinekraft Pvt. Ltd. Hall 12 Stand E90
Rajamane Industries Pvt. Ltd. Hall 6 Stand L97
Shobha Industries Pvt. Ltd. Hall 3 Stand E02
Sphoorti Machine Tools Pvt. Ltd. Hall 5 Stand B100
UCAM Pvt. Ltd. Hall 12 Stand E15
32 Indian Companies are participating at EMO 2017
Company Name Hall No Stand PositionAshoka Impex Hall 12 Stand B77
Bipco Industries (Tools) Pvt Ltd Hall 5 Stand A94
CP Grat-Ex Mfg Co Hall 4 Stand A61
Dynascan Inspection Systems Co. Hall 6 Stand A79
ESGI Tools Pvt. Ltd. Hall 5 Stand C94
Finetech Toolings Hall 5 Stand A81
GBB Industries Hall 6 Stand K90
Jain Diamond Tools Hall 11 Stand F38
Jainex Amacol Ltd Hall 12 Stand B77
Krishna Enterprises Hall 12 Stand B77
Parav Metal Processing Company Hall 7 Stand B53
Rajasthan Udyog & Tools Pvt Ltd Hall 7 Stand E13
Rigicut Tools Pvt. Ltd. Hall 5 Stand E29
Stamp IT Robitai &Solutions Pvt Ltd Hall 11 Stand F19
Steelmans Broaches Pvt Ltd Hall 4 Stand A61
Tecnicrafts Industries Hall 5 Stand A94
Vaico Hall 5 Stand A94
India at EMO Hannover
• Enter co-operation agreements
• Explore business partnerships
• Strategic partnerships for global markets
Thank You
U.S. Machine Tool Forecast
Patrick McGibbon
AMT –The Association for Manufacturing Technology
Year
2017f
2018f
Oxford Economics
4.1
4.7
Eli Lustgarten
+5% ‐ 10%
+10% ‐ 15%
AMT Consensus
12.5%
4.5%
US Machine Tool Order Forecasts
2016 US Production (in millions)
• Metal Cutting: $4,232
• Metal Forming: $1,68072%
28%Metal Cutting
Metal Forming
Production Data
2948
4075 4188 4280 4653 4451 4232
1012
12151416 1531
15181459 1680
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
$’s in M
illio
ns
US Machine Tool Production
Metal Cutting Metal Forming
Source: US Census – Annual Survey of ManufacturersNote: Excludes parts, used and rebuilt, and tools for home workshops*estimates based on 2015 Census data and USMTO 2016 data
AMT ‐ US Machine Tool Figures 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Imports (millions of current USD) 5,824 5,212 5,260 4,919 4,478
Consumption (millions of current USD) 9,272 8,785 9,277 8,868 8,882
Imports/Consumption 63% 59% 57% 55% 50%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Imports % of C
onsumption
$’s in M
illions
Imports Consumption Imports/Consumption
Imports & Consumption
AMT Current Conditions Report 8/10/17 Patrick McGibbon
Segment Business Conditions Status Notes
Manufacturing Technology Business Conditions Mfg Tech orders are on the upswing
Durable Goods Manufacturing Business Conditions Several key industries are lagging but MFG is still growing
Economic Indicators Summary Status Notes
Purchasing Managers IndexPMI hasn't been this high since end of 2014 which was peak
of mfg technology orders
Capacity Utilization for Mfg. Capacity Utilization continues to wobble its way upwards
Orders for Mfg. Durable Goods Paris Air Show can take credit for the 7% jump in July
Housing Starts Housing Starts continue to be a strong point in the indicators
30 Yr. Mortgage Rate Rates continue to be low compared to historical averages
Consumer SentimentConsumers sentiment bounces in the 90s which is a positive
sign
MBINew to the 10 indicators ‐ closely related to mfg tech orders
and has been over 50 since January
Light Vehicle Sales Sales have slowed to less than a 17 million annual unit pace
Baltic Dry Index Index is soft but improving
Restaurant Performance IndexSitting just above 100, the index rests at the lowest value that
still represents a signal for healthy business levels.
Automotive
Issues Notable FDI Projects
• Toyota –Georgetown, KY ‐ $1.3B
• BMW – Spartanburg, SC ‐ $600M
• Honda – Lincoln, AL ‐ $85M
Industrial Production Capacity Utilization FDI Estimated % of Orders
123.0 ↓ 77.8 ↑ $10.8B + 20%
Sources: FDI Markets, AMT, USMTO, PWC, McKinsey, Washington Post
• NAFTA Trade Deficit
• CAFÉ
• Electric Vehicles
Aerospace
Issues Notable FDI Projects
• Blue Origin – Huntsville, AL ‐ $200M
• Boeing – Huntsville, AL ‐ $70M
• GKN Aerospace – Panama City, FL ‐ $50M
Industrial Production Capacity Utilization FDI Estimated % of Orders
102.4 → 76.6 → $1.3B + 15%
Sources: FDI Markets, USMTO, IndustryWeek.com, CAPA ‐ Centre for Aviation, AerospaceManufacturingAndDesign.com, AluminiumInsider.com
• Trade Issues
• Paris Air Show
• Engine Demand
Medical
Issues Notable FDI Projects
• NuVasive – Memphis, TN ‐ $116M
• GE Healthcare – Florence, SC ‐ $40M
• Thermo Fisher Scientific – Middletown, VA ‐$9.5M
Industrial Production Capacity Utilization FDI Estimated % of Orders
93.6 → 76.3 → $643M + 7%
Sources: FDI Markets, USMTO, Federal Reserve, FierceBiotech.com, TodaysMedicalDevelopments.com
• Rapid Growth
• Aging America
• Healthcare Legislation
Off‐Road/Ag/Construction
Issues Notable FDI Projects
• Ferguson Enterprises – Newport News, VA ‐ $82M
• Stanley Black & Decker – Jackson, TN ‐$29M
• Maxim Crane Works –Wilder, KY ‐ $5M
Industrial Production Capacity Utilization FDI Estimated % of Orders
72.2 ↑ 56.8 ↑ $1.3B + 6%
Sources: FDI Markets, USMTO, RandallReilly.com, ConstructionDive.com, Association for Equipment Manufacturers, Census
• Dismal past two years
• Infrastructure Bill
• Construction Opportunity
Energy and Power Generation
Issues Notable FDI Projects
• Enel Green Power –Oklahoma ‐ $435M
• Kimberly‐Clark – Mobile, AL ‐ $75M
• Duke Energy – Harrison, OH ‐ $60M
Industrial Production Capacity Utilization FDI Estimated % of Orders
79.4 ↓ 73.7 ↑ $13.3B + 6%
Sources: FDI Markets, USMTO, EIA, AWEA
• Stirring in CAPEX
• Natural Gas
• Price of Oil
USMTO
$3,839$4,162 $4,089
$1,583
$3,116
$5,137 $5,207$4,926 $5,073
$4,178$4,113
$4,627$4,835
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$’S IN M
ILLIO
NS
Note: Numbers in blue are forecasts
Sources: AMT, USMTO
GENERATIVE DESIGN
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGYNANOTECHNOLOGY
ADVANCED ROBOTICSADDITIVE MANUFACTURING
OPEN SOURCE SOFTWARE
AUGMENTED REALITY
Machine LearningADVANCED
AUTOMATION
703‐827‐5255
AMT Strategic [email protected]
1‐888‐544‐3597
Questions:
EEMO 2017CELIMO INTERNATIONAL MEETING
200TH SEPTEMBER 2017
PRESENTED BY
EEstablished: 1970Number of Member : Regular Members - 78 companies(both whole sellers and direct distributors)Associate Members – 66 Machine Tool builders
13 Leasing companiesTotal 157 companies
Total sales of regular members cover approx.70% of Domestic Machine Tool sales.
JAPAN MACHINE TOOL DISTRIBUTORS ASSOCIATION(JMTDA)
In this June, a new board of directors were elected and Mr. Kaoru Tomita, President & CEO of TOMITA CO., LTD. was re-elected as chairman of the board.
The educational course, SE (Sales Engineer) Certification System, for sales personnel of members and related industries will be the 27th year in this year after the educational activities have been initiated in 1991. Total students exceeded 8,200 last year and students with SE certification is expected to exceed 3,800 this year.
In the Basic course, in addition to the lecture there are machining demonstrations by the machining center, and machining operation practice by the students .
Source :Economic Outlook Aug,2017 ,Toray Corporate Business Research, Inc.
%
Source : IMF-World Economic Outlook Databases 2017 April & SNA
(GDP this year – GDP previous year ) /GDP previous year x 100
Strong Yen rate by Plaza Accord
Collapse of Bubble Economy
Asian FinancialCrisis
Collapse of IT Bubble Economy
Lehman BrothersBankruptcy
Source: Japan Machine Tool Builder’s Association (JMTBA)
East Japan GreatEarthquake Disaster
Source: Japan Machine Tool Builder’s Association (JMTBA)
Million Yen
Source: Japan Machine Tool Builder’s Association (JMTBA )
Source: Japan’s Machine Tool Industry Almanac 2016-17by News Digest Publishing Co.,Ltd.
Source: Japan Automobile Manufactures Association, Inc.
UNIT: 1.000 cars
Source: Japan Machine Tool Builder’s Association (JMTBA)
Source: Announcement from Motor Vehicle Manufactures
100 Million Yen
100 Million Yen
Source: Announcement from Motor Vehicle Manufactures
Source: Japan Automobile Manufactures Association, Inc.
UNIT:1,000 cars
Source: Japan Machine Tool Builder’s Association (JMTBA)
Source: Japan Machine Tool Builder’s Association (JMTBA)
Million YenMillion Yennnnnn
Jan.- Jul.
35% 7% 10% 21% 26% 2%
23% 10% 9% 25% 33% 2%
1%29% 8% 13% 20% 29%
Source: Japan Machine Tool Builder’s Association (JMTBA)
2017(1-7)
Total 285Billion Yen
Source: Japan Machine Tool Builder’s Association (JMTBA)
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Investigation period:Feb.25~Mar.13 ,2013Total: 80,259 sets
Billion Yen
Start “preferential tax system & subsidy system for machine tool capital investment”
Source: Japan Machine Tool Builder’s Association (JMTBA)
Currently many part of the domestic machine tool market is for the Motor Vehicle industry, but overseas production will expand in the future and the market is getting smaller.
Expansion of machine tool target markets
Motor Vehicle Industry
Aircraft Industry
Medical Device Industry
Motor Vehicle Industry