cellular seismology in the central and eastern united states? › ... › kafka-nshm_06.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Cellular Seismology inthe Central and Eastern
United States?
Alan KafkaBoston Collegewww2.bc.edu/~kafka
![Page 2: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Questions:
(1) Is the “tendency forfuture earthquakes to occurnear past earthquakes” a real,measurable, physicalphenomenon?
(2) Do we have samples thatare representative of thisphenomenon?
(3) Can we measure it?
USGS National Seismic Hazard MapsPast Seismicity Future Earthquakes
“When you can measure something and expressit in numbers, you know something about it.” - Lord Kelvin
![Page 3: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
H1 H2
H3
![Page 4: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Choose a radius such thatcircles fill P percentage of maparea.
ρ = 6/8 = 75% = sample ofbinomial random variable, ρ.
ρ = Probability(“success”)
success = red circle occurswithin one of the green circles.
^
![Page 5: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
33% Map Area78% Hits 79% Hits
Northeastern United States
M ≥ 3.0 (1984-1987)M ≥ 5.0 (1988-2001)
Southern California
M ≥ 2.0 (1975-1987)M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2001)
![Page 6: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
33% Map Area
Central and Eastern United States
M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987)M ≥ 4.5 (1988-2003)
-65-105
25
50
90% Hits
![Page 7: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
74%Hits
33%Area
RegionsStudied
Results(1988-2001)
NEUS = Northeastern USSEUS = Southeastern USNM = New MadridCEUS = Central and Eastern USSCA = Southern CaliforniaNCA = Northern CaliforniaPNW = Pacific NorthwestISR = IsraelTKY = Turkey
![Page 8: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
ρ̂
mean
ρ(P)^
%area (P)
ρ̂
![Page 9: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
P
What is the distribution of , for a given P?
What is the best estimateof ρ, for a given P?
ρ̂
P = 33%
ρ̂
ρ̂
From Kafka (SRL, 2002)
What is the 95% confidenceinterval for ρ, for a given P?
![Page 10: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
_
R11R12
R14R13
R21R22
R23R24
Magnitude > 5.0
NEIC 1973-2002
![Page 11: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
R1492%
R2470%
87-88 (M5.0+)89-90 (M5.5+)
P = 10% Area
R2284%
Can apply CellularSeismology method
to many:
two-year (“past”)
two-year (“future”)
sub-catalogs ofNEIC data,
and test hypothesessystematically.
![Page 12: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
M5+ M6.0+
10%Map Area
ρ̂
Region
M5+ M5.5+
936.7
7610.6
6616.7
8314.9
875.8
955.8
4928.5
876.6
914.3 78
6.8
6311.2
8010.9
864.0
953.1
6116.6
876.6
![Page 13: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
93%76%
66% 87%
87%49%
83%95%
_%Hits for 10% Map Area
![Page 14: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
INAP
RIDGE
CONTINENT
%Hits for 33% Map Area
SUBDUCTION80%
39%
98%
100%
INTERIOR OF NORTH AMERICAN PLATE (INAP): 80%CONTINENT: 39% RIDGE: 98% SUBDUCTION: 100%
![Page 15: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Central and Eastern United States
M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987)M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)
-65-105
25
50
Future large earthquakesin the CEUS have about86% probability ofoccurring within 36 km ofpast earthquakes, andabout 60% probability ofoccurring within 14 km ofpast earthquakes.
- Kafka (2005)
green zones = 36 km radius = 33% map areablue zones = 14 km radius = 10% map area
0.79≤ρ(0.33)≤0.93
0.50≤ρ(0.10)≤0.70
ρ(0.33)=0.86
ρ(0.10)=0.60
^
^
![Page 16: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987)
M ≥ 4.0 (January 2004 - April 2006)
green zones = 33% map area 53% hitsblue zones = 10% map area 33% hits
Central and Eastern United States
M(min)
ρ̂
ρ̂
![Page 17: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Fortune cookie
![Page 18: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987)
M ≥ 3.0 (January 2004 - April 2006)
green zones = 33% map area 63% hitsblue zones = 10% map area 35% hits
Central and Eastern United States
![Page 20: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
ρ̂
![Page 21: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: Cellular Seismology in the Central and Eastern United States? › ... › Kafka-NSHM_06.pdf · Central and Eastern United States M ≥ 3.0 (1924-1987) M ≥ 4.0 (1988-2003)-105 -65](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060412/5f10edc5f5b3822f2b53dae9/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
ρ̂
Sample Number (time)