central bank of egypt · 2019. 1. 25. · financial account recorded a net inflow of about us$ 22.0...

Central Bank of Egypt

External Position of the Egyptian Economy

FY 2017/18

Volume No. (62)

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position

Preface

The External Position of the Egyptian Economy Report is a series produced by the Economic Research Sector in the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). The report tracks, on a quarterly basis, the international transactions that the Egyptian economy conducts with the rest of the world. It relies, for this purpose, on the national statistics that are regularly compiled in line with the SDDS prescriptions.

Enthused by the CBE's keenness to enhance its disclosure, transparency and communication policy, the Report is meant to serve several functions. Generally, it spreads, to a broad array of readers, knowledge of Egypt’s external accounts including the balance of payments, external debt, international investment position and external liquidity. Particularly, it monitors key external sector performance indicators of the economy in order to identify areas of policy needs. The information revealed in this series has also significant implications for decision-making, investment climate, doing-business environment and sovereign credit ratings.

The report contains 7 sections. The first two sections give a

performance portrait of the key components of Egypt's Balance of Payments (BOP) and the tourism sector performance. The third and fourth review developments related to the International Investment Position (IIP) and external liquidity. The fifth and sixth show Egypt's external debt in its different classifications and the exchange rate developments. The last section is a statistical part that provides more details on the above mentioned six sections. This is in addition to a glossary.

The report is available at the CBE's website www.cbe.org.eg. Hard copies can be obtained from the Economic Research Sector, 8th floor, 54 El Gomhoreya Street, Cairo.


Table of Contents Page

Overview

Section I: Balance of Payments (BOP)

BOP Performance 1

1-Current Account 1

2-Capital and Financial Account 4

Section II: Tourism Sector Performance Summary: 7 A- Tourism Sector Performance 7 B- Hotel Sector Performance 8

Section III: International Investment Position (IIP) 11-12

Section IV: External Liquidity

A -Net International Reserves (NIR) 13

B -Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) 13

Section V: External Debt

A - Breakdown by Maturity 15

B - Breakdown by Type 16

C - Breakdown by Currency 16

D - Breakdown by Creditor 17

E - Breakdown by Debtor 17

F - External Debt Indicators 18

Section VI: Exchange Rate Developments 19

Section VII: Statistics

Appendix I

1- Balance of Payments 23

2- International Investment Position (IIP) 25

3 3- Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey

(CPIS)

26

4- NIR & NFA at Banks 27

5- External Debt by Type 28

6- External Debt Indicators 29

7- External Debt by Debtor 30

8- Foreign Exchange Rates 31


Table of Contents (Cont.) Page

Appendix II

A- Outstanding External Debt 35-46

B- Outstanding External Debt By Currency 47

C- Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for

Signed Loans & Deposits 48

D- Projected Medium- and Long-Term Public

and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt

Service 49-60

E- Projected Short-Term Debt 61

F- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of

External Debt versus US Dollar 62

Appendix III

Box. (1): Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and

Data Quality Dimensions

65

Box. (2): Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions 66

Box. (3): Doing Business in Egypt 67

Box. (4): Tourism Sector Performance 68

Glossary 69


Overview

Aiming to place Egypt's external position on a more sustainable footing and encourage foreign investors back to the country, the CBE decided on 3 November 2016 to unpeg the Egyptian pound, allowing its value to float. Accordingly, bid and ask exchange rates would be determined by forces of demand and supply. By floating the pound, the Central Bank would eventually be able to fully dismantle FX restrictions, and reduce disruptions to activity. Such a courageous move aims to quash the currency parallel market and attract the much-needed foreign capital.

This decision helped replenish inter-national reserves through the official market.

Egypt's transactions with the external world recorded an overall BOP surplus of about US$ 12.8 billion during the FY 2017/2018 (against about US$ 13.7 billion in the previous FY). The current account deficit narrowed by 58.6 percent to about US$ 6.0 billion (from about US$ 14.4 billion). The capital and financial account recorded a net inflow of about US$ 22.0 billion (against about US$ 31.0 billion). The decline in the current ac-count deficit was mainly traceable to the following developments: the services surplus surged by 98.1 percent, recording about US$ 11.1 billion, net unrequited current trans-fers scaled up by 21.2 percent to about US$ 26.5 billion, the trade deficit remained stable at about US$ 37.3 billion, and the income balance ran a deficit of about US$ 6.3 billion. The capital and financial account revealed the following develop-ments: the net inflows of FDI in Egypt registered about US$ 7.7 billion, portfolio investment in Egypt decelerated, registering a net inflow of about US$ 12.1 billion, and other

assets and liabilities achieved a net outflow of about US$ 7.7 billion. Egypt’s International Investment Position (IIP) at end of June 2018 recorded net external liabilities (assets minus liabilities) of about US$ 147.3 billion, up by 12.4 percent compared to end of June 2017. Net International Reserves (NIR) increased by around US$ 13.0 billion to reach US$ 44.3 billion, thus covering 8.4 months of merchandise imports at end of June 2018. The increase was a result of the rise in foreign currencies by about US$ 11.0 billion and in SDRs by US$ 2.0 billion. During the Report’s preparation, NIR reached US$ 44.5 billion at end of October 2018. Banks’ net foreign assets decreased by US$ 2.7 billion during FY 2017/2018. Foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 4.5 percent during the period concerned, reaching US$ 40.2 billion at end of June 2018. As a percentage of total deposits, they made up 23.8 percent. Total external debt recorded US$ 92.6 billion at end of June 2018, up by 17.2 percent (compared with about US$ 79.0 billion at end of June 2017). The external debt remains within manageable limits, and its position continues to have a favorable struc-ture, as 86.7 percent of the debt are medium- and long-term. The weighted average of the inter-bank foreign exchange market rate revealed that the Egyptian pound interbank rate appreciated by 1.1 percent during FY 2017/2018, as the EGP reached 17.8878 per US dollar at end of June 2018, against EGP 18.0911 per US dollar at end of June 2017.

Section I

Balance of Payments (BOP)

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 1

BOP Performance

gypt's transactions with the external world recorded an

overall BOP surplus of about US$ 12.8 billion during FY 2017/2018 (against about US$ 13.7 billion in the previous FY). The current account deficit narrowed by 58.6 percent to about US$ 6.0 billion (from about US$ 14.4 billion). The capital and financial account recorded a net inflow of about US$ 22.0 billion (against about US$ 31.0 billion). Chart (1) shows the developments in Egypt’s BOP main components, on quarterly basis.

1- Current Account The decline in the current account deficit was mainly traceable to the following developments: the services surplus surged by 98.1 percent, recording about US$ 11.1 billion (against about US$ 5.6 billion), net unrequited current transfers scaled up by 21.2 percent to about US$ 26.5 billion (versus about US$ 21.8 billion), the trade deficit remained stable at US$ 37.3 billion, and the income balance ran a deficit of about US$ 6.3 billion

(against about US$ 4.6 billion).

1.1: Trade on Goods Trade volume increased by 10.2 percent, to reach US$ 88.9 billion (35.5 percent of GDP) during FY 2017/18. The trade deficit has stabilized at US$ 37.3 billion (14.9 percent of GDP), due to the following developments: Merchandise exports increased by 18.9 percent to reach US$ 25.8 billion, due to the increase in both oil exports by 33.1 percent, to reach US$ 8.8 billion (34.0 percent of total exports) and non-oil exports by 12.7 percent to reach US$ 17.1 billion (66.0 percent of total exports). As a result, the exports/imports ratio mounted to 40.9 percent, from 36.8 percent.

Merchandise imports increased by 6.9 percent to reach US$ 63.1 billion, reflecting the increase in both non-oil imports by 7.7 percent to US$ 50.6 billion (80.2 percent of total imports), and oil imports by 3.9 percent to reach US$ 12.5 billion (19.8 percent of total imports).

The following charts illustrate the distribution of commodity exports by

degree of processing and imports by degree of use during FY 2017/18.

E

-65.0

-50.0

-35.0

-20.0

-5.0

10.0

25.0

2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018

عنوان المحور

Chart (2): Oil & Non-oil Exports and Imports Fiscal Years

Oil exports Non-oil exports

Oil imports Non-oil imports

Trade balance

US $ bnUS$ bnUS$ bn

-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2016/2017 2017/2018

US$ bn Chart (1) : Egypt's BOP Main Components

Capital & Financial Account Current Account Overall Balance


Hereunder is the geographical distri-bution of merchandise exports and imports: - Egypt's main trade partners in terms

of exports were Italy, UAE, USA, UK, Turkey, India, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Switzerland and Spain.

These countries combined, acco-unted for some 57.9 percent of total exports.

- As for imports, Egypt's trade partners were China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Russia, Germany, USA, UK, France, Switzerland, Turkey, Italy and Brazil. These countries combined, accounted for some 52.4 percent of total imports.

1.2: Services Balance Services surplus doubled to about US$ 11.1 billion (against about US$ 5.6 billion), as the increase in services receipts outpaced the rise in services payments, as follows: 1.2.1: Services receipts increased by 39.5 percent, to some US$ 21.5 billion (against about US$ 15.4 billion), driven by the increase in the following items: Tourism revenues to about US$

9.8 billion (against about US$ 4.4 billion), driven by the increase in the number of tourist nights to 102.6 million nights (against 50.9 million nights). This was con-current with the increase in the average of tourist expenditure per night.

Transportation receipts by 10.1

percent to about US$ 8.7 billion (against some US$ 7.9 billion), due to the increase in Suez Canal dues by 15.4 percent to about US$ 5.7 billion (against some US$ 4.9 billion), which increased, in turn, as a result of the rise in net tonnage by 9.8 percent, and the increase of SDR against the US dollar by 3.8 percent. Another contributing factor was the increase in the receipts of Egyptian navigation and airline companies.

EU34.8%

Other EU Countries

8.2%Russian Federation

&C.I.S1.2%

USA8.0%

Arab Countries

23.4%

Asian Countries

(Non-Arab)10.4%

African Countries

(Non-Arab)2.6%

Australia & Other

Countries 11.4%

Chart (5) : Exports by Geographical Distribution FY 2017/2018

EU26.5%

Other EU Countries

6.7%

Russian Federation

& C.I.S7.7%

USA4.7%

Arab Countries

19.6%

Asian Countries

(Non-Arab)19.9%

African Countries

(Non-Arab)1.1%

Australia & Other

Countries 13.8%

Chart (6) : Imports by Geographical DistributionFY 2017/2018

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2016/2017 2017/2018

US$ bn

Chart (7) : Services Balance

Services Receipts Services Payments Services Balance

Chart (3): Proceeds of Merchandise Exports US$ 25.8 bn

Fuel, mineral oils &

products 34.7%

Raw materials

7.6 %

Semi-finished goods 16.7%

Finished goods 41.0%

Chart (4): Payments for Merchandise Imports

US$ 63.1 bn, of which

Fuel, mineral oils &

products 20.7%

Raw materials

9.4%

Inter-mediate goods 31.3%

Invest-ment goods

14.1%

Con-sumer goods 20.6%


Other services receipts increased by 0.2 percent to about US$ 2.34 billion (against about US$ 2.33 billion), due to the increase in the receipts of constructions services, the agencies commissions, and advertising & market research services.

On the other hand, government

services receipts decreased by 18.0 percent to US$ 636.7 million (against US$ 776.4 million), due to the decrease in other governmental receipts.

1.2.2: Services payments rose by 5.9 percent, to about US$ 10.4 billion (against about US$ 9.8 billion), driven by the increase in the following items: Government services payments by

32.9 percent to US$ 1.5 billion (against US$ 1.1 billion), reflecting the increase in the salaries of government employees seconded abroad, other govern-mental expenses, and the expenses of Egyptian embassies abroad.

Other services payments by 7.6 percent, to about US$ 4.9 billion (against about US$ 4.6 billion), driven by the increase in the amounts transferred abroad by foreign petroleum companies,

communication services, royalties and license fees, and computer services and subscription to magazines & newspapers.

Transportation payments by

11.1 percent, to US$ 1.5 billion (against US$ 1.3 billion), due to the rise in the amounts transferred by foreign navigation and airline companies, airplanes and ships rental fees, and amounts trans-ferred as transportation services.

On the other hand, travel

payments fell by 10.5 percent to about US$ 2.5 billion (against about US$ 2.7 billion), due to the decline of e-card payments abroad.

1.3: Income Balance Investment income balance ran a deficit of about US$ 6.3 billion in FY 2017/18 (against some US$ 4.6 billion), as an outcome of the rise of investment income payments to register about US$ 7.1 billion (against some US$ 5.1 billion), 58.7 percent of which were profit transfers by oil and non-oil foreign companies operating in Egypt. Meanwhile, the investment income receipts increased to register US$ 835.4 million (against US$ 497.9 million).

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2016/2017 2017/2018

US$ bnChart (9): Income Balance

Income Receipts Income Payments Income Balance

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2016/2017 2017/2018

US$ bn Chart (8): Services Balances Components

Other Services Balance Government Services Balance

Tourism Services Balance Transportation Services Balance

Services Balance


1.4:Unrequited Current Transfers (Net)

Net unrequited current transfers

scaled up by 21.2 percent to about

US$ 26.5 billion (from US$ 21.8

billion), mainly due to the increase in

net private transfers from US$ 21.7

billion to US$ 26.3 billion, supported

by the increase in workers’ remit-

tances by about US$ 4.6 billion.

Against this background, some of the

external balance indicators changed

as shown in chart (11).

2- Capital and Financial Account The capital and financial account

recorded a net inflow of about US$

22.0 billion in FY 2017/18 (against

some US$ 31.0 billion), as an

outcome of: A- Total FDI inflows registered

about US$ 13.2 billion, while total

outflows recorded about US$ 5.4

billion. Accordingly, net inflows of

FDI in Egypt registered about US$

7.7 billion. It is worth mentioning

that net inflows for oil sector

investments increased by 12.2

percent, to post about US$ 4.5

billion. The sectorial breakdown of total FDI

inflows as depicted in chart (12)

shows that the oil sector has the

biggest share (67.3 percent). As for

the other sectors, the majority of FDI

went to the services sectors, with

11.2 percent distributed as follows:

the communication and information

technology (3.4 percent), other

services sectors (2.9 percent), the

real estate sector (2.7 percent), the

financial sector (1.9 percent), and

tourism sector (0.3 percent). The

share of the manufacturing sector

was 10.0 percent, the construction

sector was 4.5 percent, the

agricultural sector was 0.1 percent,

and the remaining portion was

acquired by undistributed sectors.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2016/2017 2017/2018

US$ bnChart (10) : Remittances of Egyptians Working Abroad

Workers' Remittances Remittances to GDP

(%)

80.5

157.4

36.8

92.6

207.3

40.9

0

50

100

150

200

250

Current Receipts /Current Payments

Services Receipts /Services Payments

Merchandise Exports /Merchandise Imports

%

Chart (11): External Balance Indicators

2016/2017 2017/2018


B- Portfolio investment in Egypt retreated, registering a net inflow of US$ 12.1 billion (versus US$ 16.0 billion). This was largely ascribed to the decrease in foreigners' invest-ments in Egyptian TBs, recording net purchases of about US$ 6.5 billion (against about US$ 10.0 billion), as a result of the with-drawals of foreign investors from the emerging markets. C- Medium - and long-term loans and facilities recorded net disburse-ments of about US$ 7.9 billion (against about US$ 8.0 billion).

D- Short-term suppliers' credit realized net disbursements of about US$ 2.4 billion (against about US$ 1.7 billion).

E- Other assets and liabilities achieved a net outflow of about US$ 7.7 billion (against about US$ 2.5 billion). This came on the back of the net change in the liabilities of the CBE to the external world, to post a net external repayment of about US$ 3.9 billion in the year under review (against a net disbursement of about US$ 8.1 billion) causing a decline in the CBE's liabilities to the external world.

Petroleum sector67.3%

Construction sector4.5%

Agriculture sector0.1%

Manufacturing sector10.0%

Undistributed sectors6.9%

Real estate sector2.7%

Financial sector1.9%

Tourism sector 0.3%

Communication sector3.4%

Other services2.9%

Services sector11.2%

Chart (12): Total FDI in Egypt by Economic Sector

FY 2017/2018

Section II

Tourism Sector Performance


Summary Tourism Sector Performance during 2017/2018:

The data accumulated for the year 2017/2018 point to an increase in tourist arrivals and nights and also shows a hike in receipts when compared with the previous year levels. Average expen-diture per night increased from US$ 86.1/night in the previous year to US$ 95.6/night in 2017/2018. Tourism Sector Performance during Q4 2017/2018:

According to the balance of payments data during Q4 2017/18, tourism receipts recorded an increase of US$ 1015 million or 65.95 percent to US$ 2554 million compared with the same period last year. This is due to the 8.4 percent increase in the average expenditure per night, in addition to the 6.6 percent increase in average nights spent per visitor.

Egypt's tourism sector activity witnessed a moderate increase Q-over-Q. In the fourth quarter of 2017/18, number of tourist arrivals has witnessed a 11.6 percent increase, while tourist nights increased by 12.4 percent. On the other hand, the average expenditure per night stayed the same at US$ 95.6/night during Q3 and Q4 of 2017/18.

Data shows a slight increase in the number of average tourist nights (10.4 nights per person, compared to 10.3 nights per person). Tourists coming from Africa and Middle East countries headed the list in terms of the length of stay per visitor with 17.6 and 12.9 nights per visitor, respectively.

Hotel Sector Performance:

As regards hotel sector performance and its regional comparison during the first seven months of 2018, Cairo hotels experienced a noticeable increase in terms of "revenue per available room" that reached 20.2 percent compared with the same period last year. (Table 2)

Tourism Market Diversification:

According to the number of tourist arrivals over the 1989/90-2013/14 period, Egypt's tourism market witnessed a shift from diversification towards concentration in favor of European region, as the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) reached 0.6 in 2013/14. However, the index then fell down this year reaching 0.41 indicating more diversity, yet less diversified than the previous year which reached 0.35. This draws attention to the fact that necessary steps should be taken towards a more diversified tourism market to be able to mitigate any future demand shocks. Nevertheless, Egypt's market is still more diversified when compared to some neighboring countries in the MENA region. (See Box 4, Appendix III). A- Tourism Sector Performance:

Ministry of Tourism figures show that a total of 2,661 thousand tourists came from all over the world and spent 26,712 thousand nights in Q4 of 2017/2018, with an increase of 46 percent in the number of tourist arrivals and an increase of 53.1 percent in the number of nights, compared with the same period of the previous year. The increase in tourist arrivals resulted from more visitors coming from the European countries (70.62 percent of total in-crease), Middle East region (16.92 percent), African countries (7.11 percent), the Americas (2.61 percent) and Asia and the Pacific region (1.4 percent).

1000

2000

3000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Chart(1):Tourist Arrivals (In Thousands)

2014/2015 2015/20162016/2017 2017/2018


Meanwhile, the average expenditure per night increased from US$ 88.2/ night in Q4 of 2016/2017 to US$ 95.6/ night in Q4 2017/2018 (table 1, line 7).

The positive growth in the number

of tourist nights (12.4 percent), was behind the increase in tourism receipts by US$ 283 million or 12.5 percent to US$ 2554 million Q-over-Q in the fourth quarter of 2017/18 (table 1, line 1).

During Q4 of 2017/2018, data show

that visitors stayed more nights, registering an average of 10.4 nights per person, compared to 9.8 nights per person in the corresponding quarter a year earlier (table 1, line 6). Tourists coming from Africa headed the list in terms of the length of stay per visitor with an average of 17.6 nights. The Middle East countries were the runner up with 12.9 nights/visitor, followed by the Americas (12.3 nights/visitor), Asia and Pacific region (9.6 nights/ visitor), and the European countries (8.9 nights/ visitor).

B- Hotel Sector Performance:

In order to make a sound judgment on hotel sector financial performance over the time and across key Arab cities, one should combine occupancy rate with revenue per available room (RevPAR)1. Table 2 shows an increase of 20.2 percent on average RevPAR for Cairo, during the first seven months of 2018.

The revenue per available room provides a convenient snapshot of how well a hotel is filling its rooms, as well as how much it is able to charge. As a matter of fact, there is a sharp increase in RevPAR during the first seven months of 2018, as compared to the same period of the previous year. Hotels' revenue-per-available-room at Cairo city increased to reach US$ 72.

As to regional comparison, table 2 shows that only Doha (Qatar), Amman (Jordan), Beirut (Lebanon) and Abu Dhabi (UAE) experienced negative results in revenues per available room (RevPar), while Cairo (Egypt) hotels witnessed positive change in the same indicator.

________________________ 1 It can be calculated using the following two ways; (i) Total

room revenue in a given period, net of discounts, sales tax, and meals, divided by the number of available rooms in same period. (ii) Average daily room rate multiplied by occupancy rate

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Chart(2): Travel & Tourism Receipts

(USD Million)

2014/2015 2015/20162016/2017 2017/2018

0

10000

20000

30000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Chart(3): Number of Tourist Nights

(In Thousands)

2014/2015 2015/20162016/2017 2017/2018


Table (1): Indicators of Tourism Activity

Indicators of Tourism Activity

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Q4 Q4 Q3 Q4

1. Tourism Receipts (USD mn) 3,768 4,380 9,804 510 1,539 2,271 2,554

2. Stay-over Visitors (x 1.000) 6,874 6,623 9,777 1,186 1,823 2,384 2,661

3. Market Shares (% of Tourist Arrivals) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

a. European Countries 62.8 51.2 59.3 44.5 55.2 60.2 60.1

b. Middle East Countries 20.7 26.9 22.2 28 22.6 21.4 20.8

c. African Countries 6.6 8.4 7.4 12.8 9.3 6.4 8.6

d. Americas 4.1 4.7 4.1 6 5 4 4.3

e. Asia & Pacific 5.5 8.5 6.6 8.4 7.7 7.7 5.7

f. Other Countries 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6

4. Market Shares (% of Tourist Nights) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

a. European Countries 65.2 49.9 45 43.2 51.4 45.3 37.2

b. Middle East Countries 21.5 29.6 36.4 32.7 25.4 35.3 47.7

c. African Countries 5.4 8.5 6.9 11.1 11 6.9 2.8

d. Americas 3.8 5.5 5.3 5 5.6 5.1 5.2

e. Asia & Pacific 4 6.4 5.9 7.9 6.4 6.8 6.3

f. Other Countries 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8

5. Visitor Nights (x 1.000) 51,779 50,897 102,557 6,645 17,448 23,760 26,712

6. Average Nights Spent (per Visitor) 7.5 7.7 12.3 5.8 9.8 10.3 10.4

7. Receipts per Visitor Nights (USD/night) 72.8 86.1 95.6 76.8 88.2 95.6 95.6

8. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 0.45 0.35 0.41 0.3 0.37 0.42 0.42

9. Contribution to Current Receipts % 7.2 7.4 13.1 3.8 9.0 12.3 12.8

Sources: CBE, MOT, and CAPMAS.

Table (2): Hotels' Performance in key Arab Cities in First Seven Months of 2018

Country Occupancy RevPAR Change % Rate (US$)

Cairo (Egypt) 70 72 20.2

Manama (Bahrain) 53.9 102 2.0

Amman (Jordan) 53.7 73 -4.7

Kuwait (Kuwait) 59.2 114 3.6

Beirut (Lebanon) 61 113 -3.0

Doha (Qatar) 61.4 88 -14.5

Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) 60.5 172 8.4

Abu Dhabi (UAE) 79.4 80 -1.4

Source: Ernst & Young benchmark survey of Middle East hotel sector.

Section III

International Investment Position (IIP)


International Investment Position (IIP) At end of June 2018*

Egypt’s IIP at end of June 2018, recorded net external liabilities (assets minus liabilities) of about US$ 147.3 billion, up by 12.4 percent compared to end of June 2017.

Source: Appendix I, table (2).

Egypt's preliminary IIP data at end of June 2018, showed an increase in both Egypt's total assets and liabilities compared to the position at end of June 2017, to record net liabilities of about US$ 147.3 billion versus US$ 131.0 billion. * Released as of September 2009 according to

SDDS requirements.

Assets and Liabilities by Component:

1-Assets increased by 17.9 percent to reach about US$ 78.2 billion at end of June 2018, from about US$ 66.4 billion at end of June 2017.

The increase was mainly due to the following developments: - Reserve assets increased by 41.9

percent to about US$ 43.5 billion. - Foreign direct investments

increased by 3.7 percent to about US$ 7.6 billion.

- However, portfolio investments

abroad & other investment assets decreased by 15.5 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively, to about US$ 1.4 billion and US$ 25.7 billion.

Direct investment

abroad 9.7%

Portfolio investment

assets1.8%

Other investments

32.9%

Reserve assets55.6%

Chart (2)Breakdown of Assets by Component

June 2018-197.4 -208.8 -213.4 -224.5 -225.5

66.4 75.3 73.7 79.8 78.2

-131.0 -133.5 -139.7 -144.7 -147.3

-300

-200

-100

0

100

June Sept. Dec. March June

2017 2018

US$ billion

Chart (1)International Investment Position (IIP)

End of

Assets Liabilities Net IIP


2- Liabilities increased by 14.2 percent to about US$ 225.5 billion at end of June 2018, from about US$ 197.4 billion at end of June 2017.

The increase was mainly due to the following developments:

- Portfolio investments in Egypt

increased by 56.8 percent to about US$ 33.6 billion.

- Other investment liabilities increased by 11.9 percent to about US$ 78.3 billion.

- FDI in Egypt increased by 7.2

percent to about US$ 113.6 billion.

Indicators:

- Egypt’s negative net IIP to GDP at end of June 2018 increased to about 58.9 percent, from about 55.8 percent at end of June 2017.

- Assets to liabilities increased to

about 34.7 percent at end of June 2018, from about 33.6 percent at end of June 2017.

Direct investment in Egypt

50.4%

Portfolio investment liabilities

14.9%

Other investments

34.7%

Chart (3)

Breakdown of Liabilities by Component

June 2018

33.6 36.1 34.5 35.5 34.7

0

10

20

30

40


2017 2018

%Chart (5)

Egypt's IIP Assets/LiabilitiesEnd of

-55.8 -59.6-60.8 -60.3 -58.9

-80

-60

-40

-20

0


2017 2018

%

Chart (4)Egypt's Net IIP to GDP

End of

Section IV

External Liquidity


External Liquidity

A-Net International Reserves (NIR) The CBE's decision to unpeg the Egyptian Pound led to the steady accumulation of foreign currency reserves through the formal channels. During FY 2017/2018, NIR remained on the rise, increasing by around US$ 13.0 billion (against US$ 13.8 billion a year earlier) to reach US$ 44.3 billion, thus covering 8.4 months of merchandise imports at end of June 2018. The increase was a result of the rise in foreign currencies by about US$ 11.0 billion and in SDRs by US$ 2.0 billion.

During the Report’s preparation, NIR reached US$ 44.5 billion at end of October 2018. (US$ mn)

B- Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA)

Banks' net foreign assets decreased by US$ 2.7 billion during FY 2017/2018 (against a rise of US$ 8.0 billion a year earlier).

End of June

2017

June

2018

Net International

Reserves (1-2) 31305 44258

1- Gross Official Reserves 31307 44261

Gold 2602 2641

SDRs 770 2706

Foreign Currencies 27904 38897

Loans to IMF 31 17

2- Reserve Liabilities 2 3

Reserves/Months of

Imports 6.4 8.4

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0

June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018

Month

Chart (1) : NIR & Months of Imports Covered

US$ bn

Foreign Currencies

Loans to IMF

Gold

Reserves/Months of Imports

(Balance at End of the Month)

-10.0-5.00.05.0

10.015.020.025.0


US$ bn

Chart (2): Foreign Assets & Liabilities of Banks

Assets Liabilities Net Foreign Assets

(End of the Month)


Foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 4.5 percent during the period concerned, reaching US$ 40.2 billion at end of June 2018. Likewise, local currency deposits increased by 27.4 percent. As such, the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits made up 23.8 percent at end of June 2018.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500


LE bn

Chart (3): Developments in Deposits by Local and Foreign Currencies

Foreign Currency Deposits

Local Currency Deposits

Growth Rate of Foreign Currency Deposits

Growth Rate of Local Currency Deposits

(End of the Month) %

Section V

External Debt


External Debt External debt recorded US$ 92.6 billion at end of June 2018, up by 17.2 percent (compared with about US$ 79.0 billion at end of June 2017). This increase came as a result of the rise in net disbursements of loans and facilities by US$ 13.2 billion, alongside the depreciation of most currencies of borrowing versus the US dollar by US$ 0.4 billion.

A- Breakdown by Maturity

By original maturity, external debt reaffirmed its usual pattern of long-term external debt predominance at end of June 2018. Long-term external debt accounted for US$ 69.0 billion or 74.5 percent of the total external debt, whereas medium-term external debt reached US$ 11.3 billion or 12.2 percent and short-term external debt accounted for US$ 12.3 billion or 13.3 percent.

By residual maturity1, medium- and long-term external debt decreased to represent 74.1 percent of the total debt. In comparison, they accounted for 86.7 percent of the total by original maturity. Meanwhile, short-term debt showed an increase, as it represented 25.9 percent, compared to 13.3 percent classified by original maturity.

External Debt by Residual Maturity

at end of June 2018

(US$

million)

1. Short-term debt by original maturity 12283.7

2. Medium- & long-term debt maturing

within one year 11735.0

3. External debt by residual

maturity up to 1 year (1+2) 24018.7

Percentage to total external debt 25.9%

Percentage to NIR 54.3%

4. Medium- & long-term debt by

residual maturity 68625.2

Percentage to total external debt 74.1%

1 While the analytical presentation of external debt

by original maturity is the norm recommended in the External Debt Statistics Guide, residual maturity presentation still draws significant attention. In other words, compilation of external debt statistics based on original maturity helps in understanding the nature of capital flows; while the remaining maturity provides a profile of debt service payments, especially those falling due in the near term, and of potential liquidity risks facing the economy. Short-term debt by residual maturity comprises all components of short-term debt with original maturity of up to one year, and the amounts falling due –under medium- and long-term debt by original maturity– within one year or less.

Long - term

debt74.5%Medium-

term debt

12.2%

Short-term debt

13.3%

Chart (1)External Debt Structure by Original Maturity

End of June 2018


B- Breakdown by Type

Medium- and long-term external debt increased by about US$ 13.6 billion to about US$ 80.3 billion (86.7 percent of total debt) at end of June 2018, of which: Rescheduled bilateral debt reached

about US$ 3.7 billion or 4.0 percent of total debt.

Other bilateral* debt amounted to about US$ 7.6 billion or 8.2 percent.

Buyers' & suppliers' credit reached about US$ 8.4 billion or 9.1 percent of total debt.

International and regional organizations' debt reached about US$ 28.4 billion or 30.7 percent of total debt.

Government bonds and notes

reached about US$ 14.3 billion or 15.4 percent of total debt.

These include: (i) US$ 1.0 billion of sovereign notes issued in April 2010 and falling due in 2020 & 2040, (ii) US$ 11.1 billion of Eurobonds issued in June 2015, Jan. 2017, May 2017, and Feb. 2018. (iii) US$ 2.2 billion of euro-dominated bonds issued in April 2018 and falling due in 2026 & 2030.

Long-term deposits that have been placed at the CBE by some Arab countries posted US$ 17.4 billion (18.8 percent of total debt).

Non-guaranteed debt of the private

sector registered US$ 459.9 million (about 0.5 percent of total debt).

_______________________ Including the Liquidity Support Facility (LSF) from China Development Bank (CDB) to CBE.

Short-term external debt increased by about US$ 9.3 million to about US$ 12.3 billion or 13.3 percent of total debt.

C- Breakdown by Currency

Measuring the currency composition of Egypt's external debt is an important indicator that sheds light on the external debt exposure, to currency markets' volatility. The currency com-position of external debt indicates that the US dollar is the main borrowing currency, with a value of US$ 58.8 billion. This includes other outstanding obligations in US dollar to creditors other than the USA (such as the IMF, African Develop-ment Bank (AfDB), and the Inter-national Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).

Private sector (non

guaranteed)0.5%

Rescheduled bilateral debt

4.0%

Other bilateral debt

8.2%

Suppliers' & buyers'

credits 9.1%

Short-term debt 13.3%

Government bonnds &

notes15.4%Long-term

deposits

18.8%

Internationl & regional

organizations 30.7%

Chart (2)External Debt Structure

End of June 2018


Other important currencies recorded US$ 32.0 billion distributed as follows: the euro was the runner-up (US$ 13.9 billion), followed by the Special Drawing Rights* (US$ 10.5 billion), the Chinese yuan (US$ 2.7 billion), the Kuwaiti dinar (US$ 2.5 billion), and the Japanese yen (US$ 2.4 billion).

Other Currencies

1.9%

Japanese Yen

2.6%

Kuwaiti Dinar2.7%

Chinese Yuan2.9%

SDRs11.4%

Euro15.0%

US Dollar 63.5%

Chart (3)

External Debt Structure by Currencies

End of June 2018

D- Breakdown by Creditor

Debt distribution by creditor country

indicates that US$ 28.4 billion was

owed to international organiza-

tions** (mainly IMF US$ 9.3 billion,

IBRD US$ 9.1 billion, ADF &

AFDB US$ 2.6 billion, EIB US$ 2.4

billion and other institutions US$ 5.0

billion), and that US$ 23.1 billion

was owed to Arab countries (mainly

Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait).

Meanwhile, US$ 14.7 billion came

from five members of Paris Club

countries; namely Germany (US$ 7.1

billion), Japan (US$ 2.3 billion),

France (US$ 2.0 billion), UK (US$

1.9 billion), and USA (US$ 1.4

billion). In addition, US$ 5.1 billion

of the total debt was owed to China.

Including Egypt’s allocation of SDRs by the IMF. International Monetary Fund (IMF) , International Bank for

Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), European Investment Bank (EIB), African Development Fund (ADF), and African Development Bank (AfDB).

E- Breakdown by Debtor

The structure of Egypt’s external debt by debtor reveals that:

- Central and local government

remains the main debtor, with a share of 51.4 percent of external debt at end of June 2018. Its debt increased by US$ 12.8 billion to amount to US$ 47.6 billion.

- Banks' external debt increased by about US$ 2.0 billion to US$ 6.0 billion.

- Other sectors' debt increased by about US$ 2.6 billion to US$ 12.4 billion.

- However, the monetary authority's external debt decreased by about US$ 3.8 billion to US$ 26.6 billion at end of June 2018.

0

20

40

60

80

100

2016 2017 2018

(US$ bn)

Chart (5)External Debt by Debtor

End of June

Other Sectors Banks

Monetary Authority Central & Local Government

USA1.6% UK

2.0%

France2.2%

Japan2.5%

China5.5%

Other countries

7.4%

Germany7.7%

Government bonds &

notes

15.4%

Arab countries

25.0%

International

& regional

organizations

30.7%

Chart (4)

External Debt by CreditorEnd of June 2018


F- External Debt Indicators*

The ratio of short-term external debt to net international reserves decreased to 27.8 percent at end of June 2018 (from 39.2 percent at end of June 2017) . In addition, its ratio to total debt registered 13.3 percent (against 15.5 percent). As for the external debt in terms of international comparison, the debt is within manageable limits. Based on IMF classification, comparing Egypt's key debt indicators with those of other regional country groups** shows that: - Egypt's debt stock to GDP

represented 37.0 percent at end of June 2018 (65.1 percent for Emerging and Developing Europe and 44.7 percent for Latin America and the Carribean).

- Egypt's short-term external debt to

total external debt at end of June 2018 represented 13.3 percent (21.1 percent for Emerging and Developing Europe, and 14.2 percent for Latin America and the Carribean).

__________________________________ * For more indicators, refer to appendix I,

table No. 6. ** Source: World & Regional Economic Outlook

Reports, Oct. 2018, and CBE database. *** Debt-Service Ratio: The ratio of debt service

(interest and principal payments due) during a year, expressed as a percentage of exports (typically of goods and services) for that year. This ratio is considered to be a key indicator of a country’s debt burden.

- Egypt's debt-service ratio*** re-gistered 28.0 percent during FY 2017/2018 (49.0 percent for Emerging and Developing Europe, and 42.0 percent for Latin America and the Caribbean).

Debt service reached US$ 13.2 billion during FY 2017/2018 (US$ 11.1 billion for principal repayments and US$ 2.1 billion for interest payments).

0

20

40

60

80

2016 2017 2018

%

Chart (6)External Debt Indicators

End of June

Government External Debt / External Debt

External Debt /GDP

Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves

Short-term Debt / Total External Debt

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018

%External Debt Indicators

During FY

Debt Service/ Current Receipts (includingtransfers)Debt Service/ Exports of Goods and Services

Section VI

Exchange Rate Developments


Exchange Rate Developments

On the 3rd of November 2016, the CBE took the decision of the liberalization of the Egyptian pound exchange rate, to be quoted according to the dynamics of supply and demand. This decision came as part of the economic reform program.

(i) Inter-bank Rate1:

During FY 2017/18, the weighted average of the US dollar in the Egyptian inter-bank market depreciated by 1.1 percent to record EGP 17.8878 at end of June 2018, (against EGP 18.0911 at end of June 2017). _____________________________ 1 The inter-bank foreign exchange market was

launched in Egypt in December 2004.

(ii) Market Rate: At end of June 2018, according to the foreign exchange market (buying price), Swiss franc decreased by 4.7 percent, US dollar, Saudi riyal, and UAE dirham by 1.1 percent each, and Kuwaiti dinar by 1.0 percent. On the other hand, Chinese yuan increased by 1.4 percent, euro by 1.0 percent, pound Sterling by 0.8 percent, and Japanese yen (100) by 0.5 percent.

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

Sep-1

6

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-1

7

Sep-1

7

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-1

8

2016/2017 2017/2018

EGP

Chart (1): Exchange Rates of USD & Euro against EGP

USD Interbank rate(average)USD market rate(buying price)Euro market rate(buying price)

Section VII

Statistics


Appendix I

Table Page

I- Balance of Payments

BOP Current Account ………………………………………. 1 23

BOP Capital and Financial Account (contd.) ………………. 24

II- International Investment Position (IIP) 2 25

III- Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) 3 26

IV- External Liquidity

NIR & NFA at Banks ………………………………………. 4 27

V- External Debt

External Debt by Type …………………………………........ 5 28

External Debt Indicators …………………………………….

External Debt by Debtor …………………………………….

6

7

29

30

VI- Exchange Rate Developments

Foreign Exchange Rates……………………………………….. 8 31

(US$ mn)

2016/2017* 2017/2018*

Trade Balance -37274.8 -37276.0

Exports** 21728.2 25827.0

Petroleum 6589.5 8773.0

Other Exports 15138.7 17054.0

Imports** -59003.0 -63103.0

Petroleum -12015.5 -12489.8

Other Imports -46987.5 -50613.2

Services Balance 5614.2 11122.4

Receipts 15400.1 21486.9

Transportation 7911.2 8707.9

of which: Suez Canal 4945.3 5706.7

Travel 4379.7 9804.3

Government receipts 776.4 636.7

Other 2332.8 2338.0

Payments 9785.9 10364.5

Transportation 1332.1 1480.2

Travel 2739.9 2451.5

Government Expenditures 1124.1 1493.5

Other 4589.8 4939.3

Income Balance -4568.5 -6279.6

Income receipts 497.9 835.4

Income payments 5066.4 7115.0

of which: Interest paid 1231.9 1616.1

Transfers (Net) 21835.1 26470.9

Private Transfers (Net) 21686.1 26264.7

of which: Workers' Remittances 21816.3 26392.9

Official Transfers (Net) 149.0 206.2

Current Account Balance -14394.0 -5962.3

Table (1) Balance of Payments

Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 23

Fiscal year

(US$ mn)

2016/2017* 2017/2018*

Capital & Financial Account 31015.1 21996.5

Capital Account -113.3 -150.7

Financial Account 31128.4 22147.2

Direct Investment Abroad -175.1 -271.2

Direct Investment in Egypt (Net) 7932.8 7719.5

Portfolio Investment Abroad (Net) 208.4 -20.8

Portfolio Investment in Egypt (Net) 15985.3 12094.8

of which: Bonds 5491.5 5293.2

Other Investment (Net) 7177.0 2624.9

Net Borrowing 9699.2 10278.8

M&L-Term Loans (Net) 5156.8 6738.5

Drawings 7641.1 8846.4

Repayments -2484.3 -2107.9

MT-Suppliers' Credit (Net) 2795.1 1118.5

Drawings 2912.2 1313.6

Repayments -117.1 -195.1

ST-Suppliers' Credit (Net) 1747.3 2421.8

Other Assets -12095.7 -4511.9

Central Bank -27.5 -116.4

Banks -9462.5 2161.7

Other -2605.7 -6557.2

Other Liabilities 9573.5 -3142.0

Central Bank 8128.6 -3879.2

Banks 1444.9 737.2

Net Errors & Omissions -2903.9 -3246.5

Overall Balance 13717.2 12787.7

Change in CBE Reserve Assets ,Increase(-) -13717.2 -12787.77737.4 -3348.1

* Preliminary.

** Include free zones exports and imports.

Table (1) Balance of Payments (contd.)


Fiscal year


End of

Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities

Total 66359.3 197402.5 78228.9 225526.0

1-Direct investment 7294.1 105946.5 7565.3 113593.2

2-Portfolio investments 1722.7 21407.7 1456.5 33566.6

Equity security 1285.4 2628.8 869.3 2948.9

Debt security 437.3 18778.9 587.2 30617.7

3-Other investments 26690.1 70048.3 25709.9 78366.2

Trade credits 0.0 3036.0 0.0 4115.4

General government 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Long-term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Short-term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other sectors 0.0 3036.0 0.0 4115.4

Long-term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Short-term 0.0 3036.0 0.0 4115.4

Loans 491.6 43404.2 350.7 51804.6

Monetary authorities 0.0 7688.0 0.0 5182.6

Use of Fund credit & loans from the Fund 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other long-term 0.0 2353.7 0.0 1573.6

Short-term 0.0 5334.3 0.0 3609.0


Long-term 0.0 25890.2 0.0 33371.1

Short-term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Banks 491.6 3123.8 350.7 4978.3

Long-term 147.6 3043.8 130.7 4202.9

Short-term 344.0 80.0 220.0 775.4

Other sectors 0.0 6702.2 0.0 8272.6

Long-term 0.0 6702.2 0.0 8272.6

Short-term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Currency and deposits 26198.5 22361.5 25359.2 21183.9


Long-term 0.0 18537.4 0.0 17400.0

Short-term 0.0 2852.3 0.0 2715.4


Long-term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Short-term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Banks 17107.5 971.8 15433.2 1068.5

Long-term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Short-term 0.0 971.8 0.0 1068.5

Other sectors 9091.0 0.0 9926.0 0.0

Long-term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Short-term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other assets / Liabilities 0.0 1246.6 0.0 1262.3


Long-term 0.0 1246.6 0.0 1262.3

Short-term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


Banks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other sectors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4-Reserves assets 30652.4 0.0 43497.2 0.0

* Preliminary.

(US$ mn)

June 2017 June 2018*

Table (2) International Investment Position (IIP)

26

Country of non-resident issuers Equities long-term debt securities short-term debt securities Total

Bahrain 11.7 1.0 0.0 12.7

Belgium 0.0 0.0 13.5 13.5

Canada 0.0 9.0 0.0 9.0

China, P.R. Mainland 1.2 0.0 50.7 51.9

Czech Republic 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1

Ethiopia 0.0 0.0 7.1 7.1

France 269.3 21.7 2.2 293.2

Germany 1.5 0.0 0.2 1.7

Ghana 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5

Hong Kong 0.0 0.0 3.6 3.6

India 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.3

Indonesia 0.0 5.0 3.6 8.6

Ireland 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

Italy 24.7 0.0 2.3 27.0

Japan 5.4 5.0 0.0 10.4

Jordan 4.5 0.0 29.0 33.5

kenya 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

Kuwait 0.0 16.8 0.4 17.2

Lebanon 8.0 9.3 0.6 17.9

Luxembourg 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7

Malaysia 16.0 8.3 0.0 24.3

Malta 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.7

Netherlands 2.9 0.0 0.1 3.0

New Zealand 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

Nigeria 11.6 0.0 0.7 12.3

Oman 0.0 9.9 0.0 9.9

Pakistan 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4

Qatar 0.0 10.0 0.0 10.0

Russian Federation 0.0 0.0 4.6 4.6

Saudi Arabia 196.1 85.5 31.2 312.8

Singapore 12.9 0.0 3.5 16.4

Spain 0.0 0.0 8.3 8.3

Syrian Arab Republic 3.2 0.0 0.0 3.2

Sudan 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.7

Sweden 0.0 3.0 0.0 3.0

Switzerland 16.4 0.0 0.0 16.4

Tunisia 1.6 0.0 0.8 2.4

United Arab Emirates 5.5 55.6 0.4 61.5

United Kingdom 5.1 43.8 2.1 51.0

United States 36.6 129.7 0.1 166.4

International Organizations 231.0 0.0 0.0 231.0

Total 869.3 413.6 173.6 1456.5

Table (3) Egypt's Coordinated Portofolio Investement Survey (CPIS) at end of June2018

(US$ mn)

Breakdown of portfolio investment Assets by country of residence of the Issuers

Central Bank of Egypt - External Position

End of June 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Net International Reserves (1-2) 14936 16687 20082 17546 31305 44258

1- Gross Official Reserves 14960 16710 20104 17570 31307 44261

Gold 2463 2662 2420 2602 2602 2641

SDRs 1233 1274 1168 793 770 2706

Foreign Currencies 11181 12695 16453 14128 27904 38897

Loans to IMF 83 79 63 47 31 17

2- Reserve Liabilities 24 23 22 24 2 3

Banks' Net Foreign Assets 12121 11452 3481 -4844 3171 449

Assets 16885 16224 11450 9286 18746 16761

Liabilities 4764 4772 7969 14130 15575 16312

Table (4) Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets at Banks

(US$ mn)

27C

entral B

ank

of Egyp

t - Extern

al Position

(US$ mn)

End of June 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 +

Total External Debt* 46067.1 48062.9 55764.4 79032.8 92643.9

1- Medium & Long term debt : 42416.1 45487.6 48746.7 66758.4 80360.2

Rescheduled bilateral debt ** 8440.5 6242.9 5249.6 4252.0 3727.9

ODA 5624.7 4637.2 4524.5 4015.0 3536.5

Non-ODA 2815.8 1605.7 725.1 237.0 191.4

Other bilateral debt 6104.0 5491.7 6299.9 6572.4 7644.0

Paris Club countries 3646.1 2200.9 3553.5 3710.8 4430.5

Other countries 2457.9 3290.8 2746.4++ 2861.6++ 3213.5++

International & regional organizations 12228.6 12246.3 14089.9 21751.6 28416.8

Suppliers' & buyers' credits 546.4 1546.5 3118.9 6505.2 8433.9

Egyptian bonds and notes 6085.3 4937.7 3493.0 8984.5 14277.7

Long- term deposits 9000.0 15000.0 16300.0 18537.4 17400.0

Private sector debt (non-guaranteed) 11.3 22.5 195.4 155.3 459.9

2- Short-term debt 3651.0 2575.3 7017.7 12274.4 12283.7

Currency & deposits 1392.5 1295.3 1478.3 3824.1 3783.9

Other short-term facilities 2258.5 1280.0 5539.4 8450.3 8499.8

Source: Central Bank of Egypt.

+ Provisional

++

Liquidity Support Facility (LSF) has been moved to Other bilateral debt (other countries), instead of suppliers' & buyers' credit.* The difference from World Bank data.

** According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on May 25, 1991.

Table (5) External Debt by Type

Cen

tral B

an

k o

f Eg

ypt - E

xtern

al Po

sition

28

FY 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017+ 2017/2018+

External Debt /GDP* (at current market prices) % 15.1 14.4 16.6 33.6 37.0

External Debt / Exports (G&S) (annually) % 106.0 109.1 160.3 212.9 195.8

Short-term Debt / External Debt % 7.9 5.4 12.6 15.5 13.3

Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves % 21.9 12.8 40.0 39.2 27.8

Debt Service **

(Principal & Interest) (US$ mn.) 3198.9 5609.1 5084.7 7320.1 13227.0

Debt Service / Exports (G&S) % 7.4 12.7 14.6 19.7 28.0

Debt Service / Current Receipts % 4.3 8.5 9.8 12.3 17.7

Interest / Exports (G&S) % 1.6 1.5 2.4 3.3 4.6

External Debt per Capita (US$) 506.4 513.5 573.1 754.1 883.9

+ Provisional

* The annual GDP is calculated in US dollar by having the sum total of the quarterly GDP released by the Ministry of planning,

Monitoring and Adminstrative Reform after being evaluated in US dollar based on the average exchange rate for each quarter.

** Includes interest payments on US dollar-denominated bonds and notes holding by nonresidents

Table (6) External Debt Indicators

Cen

tral Ban

k of E

gypt - E

xternal P

osition29

30

(US$ mn)

End of June 2017 % June 2018* % Change +/ (-) %

External Debt 79032.8 100.0 92643.9 100.0 13611.1 17.2

Total Medium- & Long-Term 66758.4 84.5 80360.2 86.7 13601.8 20.4

Total Short-Term 12274.4 15.5 12283.7 13.3 9.3 0.1

Central & Local Government 34874.7 44.1 47648.8 51.4 12774.1 36.6

Medium- & Long-Term 34874.7 44.1 47648.8 51.4 12774.1 36.6

Bonds & Notes 8984.5 11.4 14277.7 15.4 5293.2 58.9

Loans 25890.2 32.7 33371.1 36.0 7480.9 28.9

Currency and Deposits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Short-Term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Money Market Instruments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Loans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



Monetary Authority 30324.3 38.5 26560.3 28.7 (3764.0) (12.4)

Medium- & Long-Term 22137.7 28.1 20235.9 21.9 (1901.8) (8.6)

Bonds & Notes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Loans 2353.7 3.0 1573.6 1.7 (780.1) (33.1)

Currency and Deposits 18537.4 23.5 17400.0 18.8 (1137.4) (6.1)


Short-Term 8186.6 10.4 6324.4 6.8 (1862.2) (22.7)


Loans 5334.3 6.8 3609.0 3.9 (1725.3) (32.3)

Currency and Deposits 2852.3 3.6 2715.4 2.9 (136.9) (4.8)


Banks 4095.6 5.1 6046.8 6.5 1951.2 47.6

Medium- & Long-Term Loans 3043.8 3.8 4202.9 4.5 1159.1 38.1

Bonds & Notes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Loans 3043.8 3.8 4202.9 4.5 1159.1 38.1



Short-Term Loans 1051.8 1.3 1843.9 2.0 792.1 75.3


Loans 80.0 0.1 775.4 0.8 695.4 869.3



Other Sectors 9738.2 12.3 12388.0 13.4 2649.8 27.2

Medium- & Long-Term 6702.2 8.5 8272.6 8.9 1570.4 23.4

Loans from Direct Investors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Bonds & Notes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Trade Credits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Loans 6702.2 8.5 8272.6 8.9 1570.4 23.4



Short-Term 3036.0 3.8 4115.4 4.5 1079.4 35.6

Loans from Direct Investors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


Trade Credits 3036.0 3.8 4115.4 4.5 1079.4 35.6

Loans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



* Provisional.

Table (7) External Debt by Debtor


First: Interbank Rates *

Weighted average

Second : Market Rates Buy Sell Buy Sell

US Dollar 18.0400 18.1397 17.8348 17.9343

Euro 20.4411 20.5559 20.6437 20.7662

Pound Sterling 23.1417 23.2805 23.3189 23.4563

Swiss Franc 18.7487 18.8602 17.8669 17.9739

100 Japanese Yens 16.1000 16.1904 16.1810 16.2758

Saudi Riyal 4.8099 4.8366 4.7554 4.7821

Kuwaiti Dinar 59.4889 59.8374 58.8703 59.2361

UAE Dirham 4.9107 4.9392 4.8550 4.8830

Chinese Yuan 2.6521 2.6680 2.6905 2.7093

Source: CBE daily exchange rates.

* The interbank rates were launched on December 23, 2004.

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Table (8) Foreign Exchange Rates (In LE per foreign currency unit )

End of June 2017

17.8878

June 2018

18.0911


Appendix II Table Page

I- Outstanding External Debt

Outstanding Stock ……………………………………………………….. 1 35

Outstanding Stock by Creditor Country ………………………………….. 2 37

- Medium- and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External

Debt By Creditor:

a. Rescheduled Debt…………………………………………………... 3 39

b. Non-Rescheduled Debt………………………………...................... 4 40

c. Multilateral Institutions…………………………………………….. 5 41

d. Bonds & Notes …………………………………....………………. 6 43

e. Deposits……………………………………………………………. 7 44

- Medium- and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External

Debt by Creditor Country. ……………………………………...………

8

45

- Short-Term External Debt ……………………………………...……… 9 46

II- Outstanding External Debt by Currency…….………………………… 10 47

III- Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans & Deposits…. 11 48

IV- Projected Medium- and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed

External Debt Service……………………………………………………. 12

49

a- Rescheduled Debt ………………………………………….…............... 13 51

b- Non-Rescheduled Debt………… ……………………………………... 14 52

c- Multilateral Institutions………………………………………................. 15 53

d- Bonds & Notes:

- Sovereign Notes……………………………………………………... 16 55

- Eurobonds Issued in USD……………………………………............ 17 56

- Eurobonds dominated in EUR Currency …………………………… 18 57

e- Deposits

- Medium- and Long-Term Deposits for Kuwait..…………………..... 19 58

- Medium- and Long-Term Deposits for Saudi Arabia……………….. 20 59

- Medium- and Long-Term Deposits for United Arab Emirates……… 21 60

V- Projected Short-Term Debt……………………………………………… 22 61

VI- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar... 23 62


2015 2016 2017 2018

1- Medium-and Long-Term Public

& Publicly Guaranteed Debt 45,465.09 48,551.33 66,603.08 79,900.29

A. Rescheduled Debt 6,242.90 5,249.64 4,251.99 3,727.95

B. Non Rescheduled Debt 7,038.16 9,418.81 13,077.52 16,077.90 (1)

C. Multilateral Institutions 12,246.30 14,089.93 21,751.64 28,416.76 (2)

D. Bonds &Notes 4,937.73 3,492.95 8,984.53 14,277.68

1-Sovereign Notes 837.73 797.78 988.59 1,002.28

2- Euro-bond issued in US$ 1,350.00 1,195.17 7,995.94 11,114.21 (3)

3- Euro-bond dominated in EUR currency 0.00 0.00 0.00 2,161.19 (4)

4-Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) 1,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 0.00

5-Saudi Bond 500.00 500.00 0.00 0.00

6-Guaranteed Notes 1,250.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

E. Deposits 15,000.00 16,300.00 18,537.40 17,400.00 (5)

2- Medium and Long-Term

Private Sector Non-Guaranteed 22.50 195.44 155.30 459.91

3- Short-Term Debt 2,575.34 7,017.66 12,274.42 12,283.68

Currency and Deposits (Non-Residents) 1,295.36 4,678.31 3,824.14 3,783.86 (6)

Trade Credits 1,125.64 1,904.97 3,036.01 4,115.39

Loans 154.34 434.38 3,414.27 1,284.43

Repo 0.00 0.00 2,000.00 3,100.00

Grand Total 48,062.93 55,764.43 79,032.80 92,643.88

Using end of period exchange rate.

(1) Includes US$ 8,428.77 million buyer credits and US$ 1,000 million representing China facility agreement and US$ 5.18 million Supplier credits.

(2) Includes US$ 8,051.67 million representing extended fund facility by IMF ( First Tranch amounted SDR 1,970.05 million, Second Tranch amounted SDR 895.48 million,

Third Tranch amounted SDR 1,432.76 million and Fourth Tranch amounted SDR 1,432.76 million) and US$ 1,262.25 million representing SDR allocation by IMF

to its member countries, Egypt’s share is SDR 898.45 million.

(3) Representing Euro-bond with nominal value US$ 12,500 million (non-residents' subscriptions amounted US$ 11,114.21 million) .

(4) Representing Euro-bond dominated in EUR currency with nominal value EUR 2,000 million (non-residents' subscriptions amounted US$ 2,161.19 million) .

(5) Representing Saudi, United Arab Emirates, & Kuwait deposits amounted US$ 7500, 5900 and 4000 million respectively .

Figure 1-1

(6) Includes US$ 2715.34 million representing Chinese Currency Swap Arrangement .

(US$ million)

Table ( 1 )

Outstanding Stock as at End of June

Total Debt

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

2015 2016 2017 2018

( U

S$b

n )

External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June

36

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Figure 1-2

Rescheduled Debt4.02%

Multilateral Institutions30.67%

Bonds & Notes 15.41%

Deposits18.78%

Non Rescheduled Debt 17.36%

Short-Term Debt13.26%

Private Sector Non-Guaranteed

0.50%

Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2018


2015 2016 2017 2018

Creditor Countries

Germany 2,805.71 3,605.82 6,178.83 6,974.66

Japan 2,212.88 2,458.25 2,207.08 2,243.59

China 337.49 1,940.55 2,019.20 2,144.34

France 1,588.48 1,198.86 1,186.73 1,663.38

United States 2,026.01 1,761.16 1,490.28 1,207.34

Saudi Arabia 103.08 129.30 459.31 996.19

Kuwait 901.21 918.26 926.79 990.06

Italy 361.23 396.34 814.30 956.42


United Kingdom 66.51 31.72 265.80 797.63

Spain 314.06 246.05 216.20 263.78

Bahrain 0.00 255.00 241.47 257.55

Belgium 20.88 12.12 79.12 104.97

Denmark 148.80 122.59 107.70 88.62

Austria 120.03 66.11 74.94 67.33

The Netherlands 65.93 63.17 58.33 54.01

Canada 78.61 52.66 38.54 34.95

Qatar 0.00 50.00 32.94 23.53

Switzerland 133.33 60.03 22.73 18.00

Finland 0.00 3.21 2.95 2.65

Norway 2.60 1.67 1.07 0.83

Sweden 7.70 2.70 0.07 0.06

Turkey 1,000.00 600.00 200.00 0.00

Australia 37.48 12.68 0.00 0.00

Multilateral Institutions (2)12,246.30 14,089.93 21,751.64 28,416.76

Deposits , Bonds and Notes

Deposits 15,000.00 16,300.00 18,537.40 17,400.00

Saudi Arabia 5,000.00 4,800.00 7,600.00 7,500.00

United Arab Emirates 4,000.00 5,000.00 5,937.40 5,900.00

Kuwait 4,000.00 4,000.00 4,000.00 4,000.00

Libya 2,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00

African Export-Import Bank 0.00 500.00 0.00 0.00

Bonds & Notes 4,937.73 3,492.95 8,984.53 14,277.68

Sovereign Notes 837.73 797.78 988.59 1,002.28

Euro-bond issued in US$ 1,350.00 1,195.17 7,995.94 11,114.21

Euro-bond dominated in EUR currency 0.00 0.00 0.00 2,161.19

Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) 1000.00 1000.00 0.00 0.00

Saudi Bond 500.00 500.00 0.00 0.00

Guaranteed Notes 1,250.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed 22.50 195.44 155.30 459.91

Short-Term Debt 2,575.34 7,017.66 12,274.42 12,283.68

African Export - Import Bank 0.00 3,200.00 3,200.00 400.00

Currency Swap Agreement (China) 0.00 0.00 2,646.68 2,715.34

REPO Transactions 0.00 0.00 2,000.00 3,100.00

Arab Trade Financing Program 0.00 0.00 134.27 109.03

Others 2,575.34 3,817.66 4,293.47 5,959.31

Grand Total 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

(1) Using end of period exchange rate.

Total Debt(US$ million)

(1)

Table ( 2 )


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38

Figure 2

Multilateral Institutions30.67%

Short-Term Debt13.26%

Others 7.82%France

1.80%

China2.31%

Germany7.53%

Japan2.42%

Bonds &Notes15.41%

Deposits18.78%

Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2018


2015 2016 2017 2018

Germany 1,444.66 1,385.09 1,328.94 1,226.38

Japan 1,390.46 1,462.75 1,185.68 1,084.44

United States 1,658.28 1,423.11 1,181.90 928.64

France 862.29 459.42 238.20 207.93

Spain 189.11 107.31 61.16 54.85

The Netherlands 65.93 63.17 58.33 54.01

Denmark 71.44 60.83 54.30 50.11

Italy 119.31 70.08 41.70 36.62

Canada 72.34 46.87 33.04 29.77

Austria 115.81 62.39 32.40 26.83

United Kingdom 66.49 31.71 15.80 12.95

Switzerland 120.62 49.81 14.18 10.53

Belgium 18.40 10.06 5.22 4.02

Norway 2.61 1.67 1.07 0.83

Sweden 7.67 2.69 0.07 0.06

Australia 37.48 12.68 0.00 0.00

Grand Total 6,242.90 5,249.64 4,251.99 3,727.95


(US$ million)(1)

CountryTotal Debt

Table ( 3 )Medium and Long-Term

Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country

Rescheduled Debt


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2015 2016 2017 2018

( U

S$b

n )

Medium and Long-TermPublic & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt

Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June

Figure 3


2015 2016 2017 2018

Germany 1,361.04 2,220.73 4,849.89 5,748.28

China 337.49 1,940.55 2,019.20 2,144.34

France 726.19 739.44 948.54 1,455.45

Japan 822.42 995.50 1,021.40 1,159.15

Saudi Arabia 103.08 129.30 459.31 996.19

Kuwait 901.21 918.26 926.80 990.06

Italy 241.92 326.27 772.59 919.80


United Kingdom 0.01 0.00 250.00 784.68

United States 367.73 338.05 308.38 278.70

Bahrain 0.00 255.00 241.47 257.55

Spain 124.95 138.74 155.04 208.93

Belgium 2.48 2.06 73.90 100.95

Austria 4.23 3.72 42.54 40.50

Denmark 77.36 61.75 53.40 38.51

Qatar 0.00 50.00 32.94 23.53

Switzerland 12.71 10.23 8.55 7.47

Canada 6.27 5.79 5.50 5.18

Finland 0.00 3.21 2.95 2.65

Turkey 1,000.00 600.00 200.00 0.00

Sweden 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00

Grand Total 7,038.16 9,418.81 13,077.52 16,077.90


Total DebtCountry

Table ( 4 )

Medium and Long-TermPublic & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country

Non-Rescheduled Debt


(US$ million)(1)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

2015 2016 2017 2018

( U

S$b

n )


Non-Rescheduled DebtOutstanding Stock as at End of June

Figure 4

41

2015 2016 2017 2018

IMF (2)1,260.79 1,254.12 3,980.25 9,313.92

IBRD 4,260.71 5,105.81 7,510.88 9,092.62

European Investment Bank 1,670.92 1,669.10 2,269.68 2,417.29

African Development Bank 1,568.22 2,054.36 2,535.38 2,403.43

Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development 1,512.93 1,472.21 1,414.80 1,535.67

I.D.A. 995.36 890.11 777.59 671.35

Arab Monetary Fund 134.99 519.17 877.91 573.64

Islamic Development Bank 287.79 320.06 504.80 557.02

African Export - Import Bank 0.00 70.00 857.65 404.36

European Bank For Reconstruction and Development 0.00 107.03 132.43 373.28

OPEC Fund 206.84 220.39 224.35 285.45

International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation 0.00 0.00 200.00 200.00

Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (APICORP) 0.00 0.00 100.00 162.50

African Development Fund 176.02 176.08 167.34 162.01

International Fund for Agricultural Development 96.80 107.61 118.01 149.21

Clean Technology Fund 18.24 50.04 55.57 60.01

Green Fund 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.00

Islamic Corporation for Development 0.00 0.00 25.00 25.00

Arab Trade Financing Program 56.69 73.84 0.00 0.00

Grand Total 12,246.30 14,089.93 21,751.64 28,416.76


(2) Includes SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt’s share is SDR 898.45 MN.


CreditorTotal Debt

Table ( 5 )

Medium and Long-Term

Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt

Multilateral Institutions


(US$ million)(1)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2015 2016 2017 2018

( U

S$b

n )


Multilateral InstitutionsOutstanding Stock as at End of June

Figure 5-1

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42

Figure 5 - 2

I.D.A2.36%

European Investment Bank8.51%

Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development

5.40%

Others5.09%African Export - Import Bank

1.42%

Islamic Development Bank1.96%

IBRD32.00%

African Development Bank8.46%

AMF2.02%

IMF32.78%


Multilateral InstitutionsOutstanding Stock as at End of June

43

2015 2016 2017 2018

Euro-bond issued in US$ 1,350.00 1,195.17 7,995.94 11,114.21

Euro-bond dominated in EUR currency 0.00 0.00 0.00 2,161.19

Sovereign Notes 837.73 797.78 988.59 1,002.28

Saudi Bond 500.00 500.00 0.00 0.00

Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) 1,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 0.00

Guaranteed Notes 1,250.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Grand Total 4,937.73 3,492.95 8,984.53 14,277.68

Figure 6


(US$ million)

Total Debt

Table ( 6 )Bonds & Notes


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2015 2016 2017 2018

( U

S$b

n )

Bonds & NotesOutstanding Stock as at End of June

2015 2016 2017 2018

Saudi Arabia 5,000.00 4,800.00 7,600.00 7,500.00

United Arab Emirates 4,000.00 5,000.00 5,937.40 5,900.00

Kuwait 4,000.00 4,000.00 4,000.00 4,000.00

Libya 2,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00

African Export-Import Bank 0.00 500.00 0.00 0.00

Grand Total 15,000.00 16,300.00 18,537.40 17,400.00

Figure 7

44

(US$ million)

CountryTotal Debt


Table ( 7 )

DepositsOutstanding Stock as at End of June


0

5

10

15

20

2015 2016 2017 2018

( U

S$b

n )

Medium and Long-Term Deposits


45

2015 2016 2017 2018

Multilateral Institutions 22.50 195.44 124.75 340.21

Kuwait 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.00

Germany 0.00 0.00 15.55 30.00

France 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.70

Bahrain 0.00 0.00 15.00 15.00

Grand Total 22.50 195.44 155.30 459.91


Country


Total Debt

Table ( 8 )


Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country


(US$ million)(1)

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

2015 2016 2017 2018

( U

S$m

n )

Medium and Long-TermPrivate Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt


Figure 8


2015 2016 2017 2018

Currency and Deposits (Non-Residents) 1,295.36 4,678.31 3,824.14 3,783.86 (2)

Trade Credits 1,125.64 1,904.97 3,036.01 4,115.39

Repo 0.00 0.00 2,000.00 3,100.00

Loans 154.34 434.38 3,414.27 1,284.43

Grand Total 2,575.34 7,017.66 12,274.42 12,283.68

(1) Using end of period exchange rate.(2) Includes US$ 2,715.34 million representing Chinese Currency Swap

Short-Term External Debt

Table ( 9 )


Total Debt

(US$ million)(1)

Figure 9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2015 2016 2017 2018

( U

S$b

n )

Short-Term DebtOutstanding Stock as at End of June


(US$ million) (*)

2015 2016 2017 2018

US Dollar 33,430.26 40,046.46 55,199.29 58,836.85

EURO 6,390.66 6,904.09 9,991.39 13,935.00

Special Drawing Rights 2,232.63 2,534.47 5,543.09 10,516.57

Chinese Yuan 0.00 0.00 2,646.68 2,715.34

Kuwaiti Dinar 2,414.14 2,390.47 2,341.58 2,525.87

Japanese Yen 2,345.32 2,593.44 2,303.94 2,353.86

Saudi Riyal 105.42 133.74 461.54 998.39

Egyptian Pound 529.15 731.84 235.85 459.74

Swiss Franc 320.53 222.83 159.13 163.48

Danish Kroner 65.48 62.19 54.64 51.61

Canadian Dollar 64.91 46.64 36.73 33.22

U.A.E. Dirham 38.08 34.24 29.01 31.22

British Pound Sterling 90.38 46.48 25.41 20.75

Norwegian Kroner 2.55 2.17 1.99 1.92

Swedish Kroner 7.17 6.57 2.53 0.06

Australian Dollar 26.25 8.80 0.00 0.00

Total 48,062.93 55,764.43 79,032.80 92,643.88

(*) Using end of period exchange rate .

CurrencyTotal Debt


Table ( 10 )



Signed Amount Disbursed Undisbursed

1- Medium and Long-Term Public

& Publicly Guaranteed Debt 37,850.42 31,376.03 6,432.27

A. Non-Rescheduled Debt 14,844.36 10,385.67 4,458.69

B. Multilateral Institutions 18,006.06 15,990.36 1,973.58

C. Deposits 5,000.00 5,000.00 0.00

2- Medium and Long-Term Private 822.47 434.31 388.16 Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt

Grand Total 38,672.89 31,810.34 6,820.43


Table ( 11 )

Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans and Deposits

from 1/7/2015 to 30/6/2018

(US$ million)(1)

Figure 11

0.0

2,000.0

4,000.0

6,000.0

8,000.0

10,000.0

12,000.0

14,000.0

16,000.0

18,000.0

20,000.0

Non-Rescheduled Debt Multilateral Institutions Deposits Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt

Signed Amount Disbursed Undisbursed

Medium and Long-Term Disbursed and Undisbursed Amountsfor Signed Loans and Deposits

from 1/7/2015 to 30/6/2018

( U

S$m

n )

49

Period Principal Interest Total Period Total 2018/H2 4089.78 1239.61 5,329.39 2036/H2 189.67 216.68 406.352019/H1 4824.26 1305.40 6,129.66 2037/H1 176.12 214.49 390.612019/H2 7529.26 1078.88 8,608.14 2037/H2 170.82 212.72 383.542020/H1 4695.33 1119.11 5,814.44 2038/H1 143.62 210.72 354.34

2020/H2 2040.44 938.92 2,979.36 2038/H2 114.65 209.31 323.952021/H1 4377.44 1010.92 5,388.35 2039/H1 101.62 207.93 309.542021/H2 2965.77 832.69 3,798.46 2039/H2 97.55 206.92 304.472022/H1 4245.01 897.69 5,142.69 2040/H1 473.40 205.80 679.202022/H2 2964.00 682.01 3,646.01 2040/H2 93.88 191.82 285.702023/H1 3254.07 760.07 4,014.14 2041/H1 90.00 190.58 280.582023/H2 3119.61 594.77 3,714.38 2041/H2 89.36 189.68 279.042024/H1 2002.98 661.22 2,664.20 2042/H1 84.69 188.52 273.222024/H2 1888.43 530.23 2,418.66 2042/H2 78.60 187.65 266.242025/H1 2833.67 620.42 3,454.08 2043/H1 75.69 186.56 262.242025/H2 1845.09 464.08 2,309.17 2043/H2 74.40 185.77 260.172026/H1 2837.14 575.41 3,412.55 2044/H1 71.48 184.79 256.272026/H2 1815.20 430.47 2,245.66 2044/H2 71.28 183.96 255.242027/H1 3048.57 477.19 3,525.76 2045/H1 70.99 182.90 253.892027/H2 1359.75 338.60 1,698.35 2045/H2 70.99 182.12 253.112028/H1 2059.73 390.63 2,450.36 2046/H1 70.19 181.08 251.272028/H2 790.63 282.35 1,072.98 2046/H2 67.78 180.31 248.092029/H1 733.90 338.86 1,072.75 2047/H1 2566.61 179.29 2,745.902029/H2 702.81 267.39 970.20 2047/H2 66.51 72.27 138.782030/H1 1738.74 325.39 2,064.13 2048/H1 1565.53 71.31 1,636.842030/H2 425.58 255.07 680.65 2048/H2 62.79 11.23 74.012031/H1 374.33 250.82 625.16 2049/H1 54.63 10.24 64.872031/H2 357.69 247.25 604.94 2049/H2 54.63 9.57 64.202032/H1 350.84 243.79 594.62 2050/H1 54.37 8.67 63.042032/H2 344.69 240.28 584.97 2050/H2 52.09 8.01 60.092033/H1 320.85 236.32 557.17 2051/H1 36.45 7.14 43.592033/H2 310.18 233.21 543.39 2051/H2 34.45 6.73 41.182034/H1 306.23 229.97 536.20 2052/H1 19.95 0.61 20.562034/H2 279.05 227.01 506.06 2052/H2 17.55 0.29 17.842035/H1 271.89 224.11 496.00 2053/H1 0.55 0.01 0.552035/H2 265.14 221.46 486.59 2053/H2 0.55 0.00 0.552036/H1 206.01 218.73 424.74 2054/H1 0.55 0.00 0.55

Grand Total 78,638.04 (2) 23,475.96 (3) 102,114.00

(1) The exchange rate of June 30, 2018 .

(2) Excludes US$ 1262.25 million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt’s share is SDR 898.45 million.

(3) Includes US$ 372.82 million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation.


Table ( 12 )Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed

External Debt Service

Interest

(US$ million)(1)as of July 1, 2018

Principal

Cen

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Figure 12

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Principal Interest Total

Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2018US$ mn


Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total

2018/H2 297.92 45.63 343.54 2023/H1 158.00 15.55 173.54

2019/H1 299.79 42.31 342.10 2023/H2 160.43 13.58 174.01

2019/H2 303.45 38.18 341.63 2024/H1 162.68 11.79 174.47

2020/H1 305.41 34.69 340.10 2024/H2 160.49 9.81 170.30

2020/H2 309.17 30.63 339.80 2025/H1 162.86 7.92 170.77

2021/H1 311.43 26.90 338.33 2025/H2 165.44 5.89 171.34

2021/H2 287.05 22.79 309.83 2026/H1 167.87 3.93 171.81

2022/H1 153.25 19.19 172.44 2026/H2 167.12 1.87 168.99

2022/H2 155.61 17.26 172.87

Grand Total 3,727.95 347.91 4,075.86


(US$ million)(1)

Table ( 13 )

Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed

External Debt Service as of July 1, 2018

Rescheduled Debt


Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total2018/H2 603.29 216.79 820.08 2036/H2 42.31 1.87 44.182019/H1 603.44 204.05 807.48 2037/H1 37.24 1.69 38.932019/H2 751.92 201.56 953.48 2037/H2 34.41 1.54 35.942020/H1 680.08 182.12 862.21 2038/H1 29.79 1.38 31.172020/H2 999.96 176.87 1176.83 2038/H2 25.20 1.26 26.462021/H1 1401.89 149.20 1551.09 2039/H1 21.78 1.16 22.942021/H2 848.31 123.99 972.31 2039/H2 21.27 1.07 22.342022/H1 761.80 101.92 863.72 2040/H1 20.60 0.99 21.592022/H2 654.14 93.29 747.43 2040/H2 20.18 0.91 21.092023/H1 649.64 79.01 728.65 2041/H1 18.86 0.82 19.682023/H2 726.29 73.94 800.23 2041/H2 18.22 0.74 18.962024/H1 620.64 58.67 679.31 2042/H1 16.63 0.68 17.302024/H2 522.45 54.27 576.71 2042/H2 14.69 0.60 15.292025/H1 495.55 45.71 541.26 2043/H1 14.61 0.54 15.152025/H2 493.37 44.23 537.60 2043/H2 13.79 0.48 14.282026/H1 468.14 36.73 504.87 2044/H1 11.34 0.42 11.762026/H2 475.68 35.29 510.97 2044/H2 11.14 0.37 11.522027/H1 466.19 29.20 495.40 2045/H1 10.86 0.32 11.182027/H2 470.23 27.16 497.39 2045/H2 10.86 0.27 11.132028/H1 423.34 21.87 445.21 2046/H1 10.05 0.22 10.282028/H2 421.34 19.63 440.98 2046/H2 7.65 0.18 7.832029/H1 396.67 15.48 412.15 2047/H1 6.48 0.15 6.632029/H2 370.53 12.94 383.46 2047/H2 6.37 0.11 6.492030/H1 270.11 9.70 279.81 2048/H1 5.66 0.08 5.742030/H2 151.64 7.93 159.57 2048/H2 4.11 0.05 4.162031/H1 112.57 6.92 119.49 2049/H1 1.87 0.04 1.912031/H2 104.65 6.30 110.95 2049/H2 1.87 0.03 1.912032/H1 103.77 5.71 109.48 2050/H1 1.50 0.03 1.522032/H2 99.53 5.13 104.66 2050/H2 1.50 0.02 1.522033/H1 84.70 4.27 88.97 2051/H1 0.55 0.01 0.562033/H2 82.27 3.82 86.08 2051/H2 0.55 0.01 0.562034/H1 79.99 3.36 83.35 2052/H1 0.55 0.01 0.562034/H2 62.62 2.93 65.55 2052/H2 0.55 0.01 0.562035/H1 61.87 2.65 64.51 2053/H1 0.55 0.01 0.552035/H2 60.71 2.37 63.08 2053/H2 0.55 0.00 0.552036/H1 53.94 2.10 56.04 2054/H1 0.55 0.00 0.55

Grand Total 16,077.90 2,085.17 18,163.07(1) The exchange rate of June 30, 2018 .

(US$ million)(1)

Table ( 14 )


Non-Rescheduled Debt



Period Principal Interest Total Period Total2018/H2 1088.58 311.68 1400.25 2036/H1 190.22

2019/H1 822.04 287.58 1109.61 2036/H2 183.69

2019/H2 1373.89 275.43 1649.32 2037/H1 173.19

2020/H1 651.68 260.17 911.85 2037/H2 169.11

2020/H2 631.32 250.59 881.91 2038/H1 144.68

2021/H1 996.12 242.22 1238.34 2038/H2 119.01

2021/H2 830.41 228.95 1059.35 2039/H1 108.12

2022/H1 1105.48 221.91 1327.39 2039/H2 103.65

2022/H2 1254.24 209.90 1464.15 2040/H1 102.01

2023/H1 1275.18 197.07 1472.25 2040/H2 99.09

2023/H2 1232.90 184.55 1417.45 2041/H1 95.37

2024/H1 1219.66 172.88 1392.54 2041/H2 94.55

2024/H2 1205.50 161.05 1366.55 2042/H1 90.39

2025/H1 1191.88 148.90 1340.77 2042/H2 85.43

2025/H2 1186.28 137.74 1324.02 2043/H1 81.57

2026/H1 1198.05 145.75 1343.80 2043/H2 80.37

2026/H2 1172.40 117.10 1289.50 2044/H1 78.98

2027/H1 908.32 106.63 1014.94 2044/H2 78.20

2027/H2 889.52 98.00 987.52 2045/H1 77.19

2028/H1 575.35 90.18 665.54 2045/H2 76.46

2028/H2 369.29 84.23 453.52 2046/H1 75.47

2029/H1 337.22 79.75 416.97 2046/H2 74.74

2029/H2 332.28 75.97 408.25 2047/H1 73.75

2030/H1 310.53 72.06 382.59 2047/H2 73.01

2030/H2 273.95 68.65 342.60 2048/H1 71.83

2031/H1 261.76 65.42 327.18 2048/H2 69.94

2031/H2 253.05 62.46 315.51 2049/H1 63.05

2032/H1 247.06 59.59 306.65 2049/H2 62.40

2032/H2 245.16 56.67 301.83 2050/H1 61.50

2033/H1 236.16 53.57 289.72 2050/H2 58.59

2033/H2 227.91 50.90 278.82 2051/H1 43.03

2034/H1 226.24 48.12 274.36 2051/H2 40.62

2034/H2 216.43 45.60 262.03 2052/H1 19.80

2035/H1 210.02 42.98 253.00 2052/H2 17.19

2035/H2 204.43 40.60 245.03

Grand Total 27,154.51 (2) 5,396.79 (3) 32,551.30


(2) Excludes US$ 1,262.25 million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt’s share is SDR 898.45 million.

(3) Includes US$ 372.82 million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation.

89.45

113.84

136.42

21.52

26.33

25.39

17.05

29.56

Table ( 15 )

Interest(US$ million)(1)

Multilateral Institutions



23.41

Principal152.07

147.37

138.88

36.32

71.14

34.31

32.69

30.85

13.62

12.88

20.49

19.76

18.85

18.07

22.33

6.71

0.60

0.28

15.33

38.15

7.13

11.17

11.96

14.60

24.24

79.84

76.29

75.68

73.70

71.14

27.36

28.28

33.91

60.13

60.13

60.13

60.13

10.20

9.54

8.65

7.99

16.32

58.77

52.86

68.07

63.91

61.08

60.61

60.13

16.91

52.86

52.86

50.61

35.91

60.13

60.13

19.21

60.13

59.87

Cen

tral B

an

k o

f Egy

pt - E

xtern

al P

ositio

n54

Figure 15

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051

Principal Interest Total

Total Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Multilateral Institutions

as of July 1, 2018

US$ mn


Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total

2018/H2 0.00 30.88 30.88 2029/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96

2019/H1 0.00 30.94 30.94 2030/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96

2019/H2 0.00 30.94 30.94 2030/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96

2020/H1 625.16 30.94 656.09 2031/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96

2020/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96 2031/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96

2021/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96 2032/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96

2021/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96 2032/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96

2022/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96 2033/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96

2022/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96 2033/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96

2023/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96 2034/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96

2023/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96 2034/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96

2024/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96 2035/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96

2024/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96 2035/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96

2025/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96 2036/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96

2025/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96 2036/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96

2026/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96 2037/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96

2026/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96 2037/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96

2027/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96 2038/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96

2027/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96 2038/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96

2028/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96 2039/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96

2028/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96 2039/H2 0.00 12.96 12.96

2029/H1 0.00 12.96 12.96 2040/H1 377.12 12.96 390.08

Grand Total 1,002.28 642.25 1,644.53

(*) Consists of Two Notes

The Sovereign Note Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1000 MM , Interest Rate is Fixed 5.75 % issued on 29/4/2010 and due on 29/4/2020 .

The Sovereign Note Nominal Value Amounted US$ 500 MM , Interest Rate is Fixed 6.875 % issued on 30/4/2010 and due on 30/4/2040 .

(US$ million)

Table ( 16 )

Projected Sovereign Notes (*)

Debt Service as of July 1, 2018

56

(US$ million)

Period Principal Interest Total2018/H2 0.00 396.08 396.082019/H1 0.00 392.92 392.922019/H2 0.00 392.92 392.922020/H1 0.00 392.92 392.922020/H2 0.00 392.92 392.922021/H1 0.00 392.92 392.922021/H2 0.00 392.92 392.922022/H1 2,224.48 392.92 2,617.402022/H2 0.00 324.80 324.802023/H1 1,171.25 324.80 1,496.052023/H2 0.00 292.14 292.142024/H1 0.00 292.14 292.142024/H2 0.00 292.14 292.142025/H1 983.39 292.14 1,275.532025/H2 0.00 263.25 263.252026/H1 0.00 263.25 263.252026/H2 0.00 263.25 263.252027/H1 1,674.06 263.25 1,937.312027/H2 0.00 200.47 200.472028/H1 1,061.03 200.47 1,261.502028/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522029/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522029/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522030/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522030/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522031/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522031/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522032/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522032/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522033/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522033/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522034/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522034/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522035/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522035/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522036/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522036/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522037/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522037/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522038/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522038/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522039/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522039/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522040/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522040/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522041/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522041/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522042/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522042/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522043/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522043/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522044/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522044/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522045/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522045/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522046/H1 0.00 165.52 165.522046/H2 0.00 165.52 165.522047/H1 2,500.00 165.52 2,665.522047/H2 0.00 59.27 59.272048/H1 1,500.00 59.27 1,559.27

Grand Total 11,114.21 12,827.04 23,941.25

(*) Euro Bond Nominal Value Amounted US$ 12,500 MM, detailed as:

US$ 1500 MM issued on 11/6/2015 and due on 11/6/2025 with Fixed Interest Rate 5.875%

US$ 2500 MM (US$ 1750 MM issued on 31/1/2017 and US$ 750 MM issued on 31/5/2017) due on 31/1/2022 with Fixed Interest Rate 6.125%






Table ( 17 )

Projected Euro-Bond issued in USD (*)



57

(US$ million)

Period Principal Interest Total

2019/H1 0.00 113.39 113.39

2019/H2 0.00 0.00 0.00

2020/H1 0.00 112.79 112.79

2020/H2 0.00 0.00 0.00

2021/H1 0.00 112.79 112.79

2021/H2 0.00 0.00 0.00

2022/H1 0.00 112.79 112.79

2022/H2 0.00 0.00 0.00

2023/H1 0.00 112.79 112.79

2023/H2 0.00 0.00 0.00

2024/H1 0.00 112.79 112.79

2024/H2 0.00 0.00 0.00

2025/H1 0.00 112.79 112.79

2025/H2 0.00 0.00 0.00

2026/H1 1,003.09 112.79 1,115.87

2026/H2 0.00 0.00 0.00

2027/H1 0.00 65.14 65.14

2027/H2 0.00 0.00 0.00

2028/H1 0.00 65.14 65.14

2028/H2 0.00 0.00 0.00

2029/H1 0.00 65.14 65.14

2029/H2 0.00 0.00 0.00

2030/H1 1,158.10 65.14 1,223.24

Grand Total 2,161.19 1,163.48 3,324.67

(*) Euro Bond dominated in Euro currency with Nominal Value Amounted EUR 2000 MM equivilant to US$ 2316 MM detailed as:



Table ( 18 )

Projected Euro-Bond dominated in EUR currency (*)




(US$ million)


2018/H2 52.10 2,052.10

2019/H1 16.86 1,349.86

2019/H2 8.48 8.48

2020/H1 8.48 675.48

Grand Total 4,000.00 (*) 85.92 4,085.92

(*) Consists of Two Deposits :

The First Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM , Interest Rate is Libor 12 months deposited on 24/9/2013 and

due on 21/9/2018 Interest Paid on annual basis .

The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM , Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 21/4/2015 and due on 22/4/2019, 23/4/2019

667.00

2,000.00

Table ( 19 )

Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for Kuwait

1,333.00

and 22/4/2020 (Three installments) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis.

as of July 1, 2018

0.00


(US$ million)


2018/H2 100.00 128.34 228.34

2019/H1 766.00 126.45 892.45

2019/H2 5,100.00 53.19 5,153.19

2020/H1 766.00 18.50 784.50

2020/H2 100.00 9.27 109.27

2021/H1 668.00 8.35 676.35

Grand Total 7,500.00 (*) 344.09 7,844.09

(*) Consists of Five Deposits :

The First Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM (Outstanding is US$ 500 MM) , Interest Rate is Libor 3 months deposited on 9/5/2012

and due from 9/11/2018 up to 9/11/2020 (Equal 5 semiannual installments, USD 100 MM).

The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM , Interest Rate is Fixed 3.00% deposited on 19/7/2013 and due on 19/7/2019.

The Third Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM , Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 22/4/2015 and due on 22/4/2019, 22/4/2020

The Fourth Deposit Amounted US$ 3000 MM , Interest Rate is Fixed 4.50 % (2000 MM deposited on 23/9/2016 and 1000 MM deposited on 16/5/2017)

and due on 1/7/2019 Interest Paid on Quarterly-annual basis.

Table ( 20 )

Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for Saudi Arabia

as of July 1, 2018

and 22/4/2021 (Three installments) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis.


(US$ million)


2018/H2 58.12 58.12

2019/H1 90.92 1,090.92

2019/H2 78.19 78.19

2020/H1 78.51 1,078.51

2020/H2 65.66 65.66

2021/H1 65.57 1,065.57

2021/H2 51.08 1,051.08

2022/H1 35.99 35.99

2022/H2 23.80 923.80

2023/H1 17.89 17.89

2023/H2 17.60 1,017.60

Grand Total 5,900.00 (*) 583.32 6,483.32

(*) Consists of Four Deposits :

The First Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM , Interest Rate is Fixed 3.00 % deposited on 17/7/2013 and due on 15/7/2021, Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis

The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM , Interest Rate is Fixed 3.50 % deposited on 17/7/2013 and due on 17/7/2023, Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis

The Third Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM , Interest Rate is Fixed 3.00 % for US$ 666.67 million deposited on 22/4/2015 and due on 20/4/2021,

and Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % for US$ 1333.33 MM deposited on 22/4/2015 and due on 22/4/2019 and 22/4/2020 (Two installments) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis.

The Fourth Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM , Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 31/5/2016 and due on 30/5/2019, 30/5/2020 and 30/5/2021 (Three installments)

Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis.

The Fifth Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM (Outstanding is US$ 900 MM) , Interest Rate is Fixed 4.00 % deposited on 31/8/2016 and due on 31/8/2022

Interest Paid on monthly basis.

Table ( 21 )

Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for United Arab Emirates

0.00

0.00

1,000.00

1,000.00

900.00

0.00

1,000.00

as of July 1, 2018

1,000.00

0.00

1,000.00

0.00


(US$ million)(1)


July 2018 1,925.57 8.56 1,934.13

August 2018 1,143.23 58.40 1,201.63

September 2018 862.64 5.40 868.04

October 2018 927.47 9.06 936.53

November 2018 3,719.32 60.08 3,779.40

December 2018 2,892.17 0.58 2,892.75

January 2019 63.21 0.87 64.08

February 2019 153.06 6.04 159.10

March 2019 69.80 0.46 70.26

April 2019 38.53 0.24 38.77

May 2019 413.50 5.71 419.21

June 2019 75.18 0.18 75.36

Grand Total 12,283.68 155.58 12,439.26


Table ( 22 )

Projected Short-Term Debt



Table ( 23 )

Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar

as at End of June

Country Currency 2015 2016 2017 2018

United States USD 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Switzerland CHF 0.94 0.98 0.96 1.00

Denmark DKK 6.71 6.71 6.54 6.43

Egypt EGP 7.52 8.77 18.03 17.82

Sweden SEK 8.32 8.51 8.60 9.00

Japan JPY 122.90 102.70 112.15 110.24

India INR 63.92 67.74 64.53 68.94

United Kingdom GBP 0.64 0.75 0.78 0.76

Canada CAD 1.24 1.30 1.31 1.33

Australia AUD 1.31 1.35 1.32 1.36

Norway NOK 7.91 8.43 8.44 8.18

Euro EURO 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.86

Special Drawing Rights SDR 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.71

Kuwait KWD 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30

United Arab Emirates AED 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67

Saudi Arabia SAR 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75

Chinese Yuan CNY 6.21 6.65 6.80 6.63


Appendix III

Box Page

I- Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions……………… 1 65

II- Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions…………………………………………... 2 66

III- Doing Business in Egypt…………………………………………………… 3 67

IV- Tourism Market Diversification……………………………………………. 4 68

- Glossary……………………………………………………………………. 69


Box. (1): Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions: In 1996, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) introduced the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS). The SDDS is intended to guide countries that have, or seek to have, access to international capital markets in their provision of economic and financial statistics. Subscription to SDDS is voluntary and it requires subscribers to observe the standard and provide information on data and dissemination practices (the metadata) to the IMF for re-dissemination. The standard identifies 4 dimensions of data dissemination: coverage, periodicity, and timeliness; access by the public; the integrity of the disseminated data; and the quality of the data themselves. In particular, the data dimension lists 18 data categories, providing coverage for 4 sectors (real, financial, fiscal and external) of the economy and prescribes minimum timeliness and frequency standard, summarized in table below.

On January 31, 2005, Egypt became the 59th subscriber to the International Monetary Fund's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The report of External Position contains external sector data that cover external debt, balance of payments, international reserves, merchandise trade, international investment position (IIP) and exchange rates. Such data are published in compliance with the requirement under Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS) of the IMF. Central Bank of Egypt compiles these statistics and disseminates them through press releases, its website, and at the same time, on the IMF's Dissemination Standard Bulletin Board (DSBB). Also, these data are included in the CBE's main publications; quarterly Economic Review, Annual Report and monthly Bulletins. As the title indicates, the most comprehensive and complete databases are those available from national sources, supplying high quality, timely and accurate data to international financial community to support investment activity.

SDDS Data Categories and Related Periodicity & Timeliness Standards

SDDS Data Category Periodicity Minimum Timeliness Real Sector National accounts Quarterly 1 Quarter Production indices Monthly 6 Weeks Employment, unemployment, wage/earnings Quarterly 1 Quarter Consumer price index Monthly 1 Month

Fiscal Sector General Government operations Annual 2 Quarters Central Government operations Monthly 1 Month Central Government debt Quarterly 1 Quarter

Financial Sector Analytical accounts of the banking sector Monthly 1 Month Analytical accounts of the Central Bank Monthly 2 Weeks Interest rates and stock market Daily 1 Day

External Sector Balance of payments Quarterly 1 Quarter International reserves Monthly 1 Week Merchandise trade Monthly 8 Weeks International investment position (IIP) Quarterly 1 Quarters External debt Quarterly 1 Quarter Exchange rates Daily 1 Day Source: IMF Statistics Department. 1 http://dsbb.imf.org/Pages/SDDS/CtyCtgList.aspx?ctycode=EGY


Box. (2):Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions*: According to international rating agencies, having an efficient, effective and reliable economic data, especially in developing countries, is becoming increasingly crucial to assign an appropriate sovereign credit rating. Thus, a lack of data in this area will automatically translate into a perception of high risk. Therefore, highlighting the dimensions of Egypt data quality by showing the results of World Bank index (BBSC 2017) will be an appropriate way to show how reliable the Egyptian official data are.

Egypt ranked 25th on World Bank's Bulletin Board on Statistical Capacity index on 146 developing countries and 1st on the MENA and African regions, with an overall statistical capacity index of 83.3 points, compared to 87.8 in 2016.

Statistical Capacity Indicator 2017 (on a scale of 0-100)

Indicator Egypt All Countries

Overall 83.3 68.8 Methodology 70 57.1 Source Data 90 65.8 Periodicity & timeliness 90 83.4

A country's statistical capacity means its ability to extract and publish reliable and timely statistical data, easily accessible by the public. The statistical capacity index, issued annually by the World Bank, consists of three sub-indicators which include; methodology, data sources, and its periodicity and timeliness. The latter measures the degree of information and data dissemination concerning changes in government policy, and how easily that information can be accessed by the public. It is worth mentioning that, aiming to improve the statistical capacity of 146 developing countries, the World Bank provides information on various aspects of national statistical systems through the BBSC indicator at its website.

As can be seen from the table and its chart, Egypt’s score outpaced the average score of all countries, either on the level of the overall index, or on the level of its three sub-indicators. _______________________________________ * Source: bbsc.Worldbank.org, accessed in November, 2018.


Box. (3): Doing Business in Egypt: One of the most important indices and reports that is closely related to investment climate and investor’s decisions is Doing Business. The Report has been designed and issued by the World Bank Group on an annual basis since 2003. It provides objective measures of business regulations for firms in 190 economies worldwide. The 2018 ranking on the ease of doing business is built upon indicator sets that measure and benchmark regulations affecting 10 areas in a business’s life cycle. Doing Business encompasses 2 types of data. The first is “Legal scoring indicators” that provides a measure of legal provisions in the laws and regulations. The other type is “Time and motion indicators”, which measures the efficiency and complexity in achieving a regulatory goal by recording the procedures, time and cost to complete a transaction according to all relevant regulations. By comparing business regulation environments across nations (the ease of doing business ranking) and over time (the distance to frontier score), Doing Business encourages countries to compete towards more efficient regulation; offers measurable benchmarks for reform; and serves as a resource for policymakers and other interested parties.

Topic Rankings 2019 Rank 2018 Rank Change in Rank

Overall index 120 128 8+

Distance to frontier score* 58.56 56.22 2.34

Starting a Business 109 103 -6

Dealing with Construction Permits 68 66 -2

Getting Electricity 96 89 -7

Registering Property 125 119 -6

Getting Credit 60 90 +30

Protecting Investors 72 81 +9

Paying Taxes 159 167 +8

Trading Across Borders 171 170 -1

Enforcing Contracts 160 160 0

Resolving Insolvency 101 115 +14 * The rankings are determined by sorting the aggregate distance to frontier scores on 10 topics.

Area of Reform Year Reform Actions

Starting a Business

2008 The minimum capital required to start a business was cut from EGP 50,000 to EGP 1,000,

and halved start-up time and cost.

2009 It was made easier by reducing the paid-in minimum capital requirement by more than 80%,

abolishing bar association fees, and automating tax registration.

2010 The minimum capital required to start a business was removed.

2011 Egypt reduced the cost to start a business.

2017 It was made easier by merging procedures at the one-stop shop by introducing a follow-up

unit in charge of liaising with the tax and labor authority on behalf of the company.

2019 It was made easier by removing the requirement to obtain a bank certificate and establishing a one-stop shop.

Dealing with Construction Permits

2008 The cost of dealing with licenses was reduced.

2009 A new building code introduced in 2008 is aimed at reducing the procedures and time

required to deal with construction permits by establishing a single window for processing

construction-related approvals.

2010 Construction permits were made easier by issuing executive articles for the 2008

construction law and eliminating most pre-approvals for construction permits.

Enforcing Contracts 2010 Contract enforcement was expedited with the creation of commercial courts.

Getting Credit

2009 Thanks to new regulations issued by the Central Bank, borrowers have the right to inspect

their data in the private credit bureau.

2010 Access to credit information has expanded with the addition of retailers to the database of

the private credit bureau.

2019

Egypt strengthened access to credit by introducing the possibility of granting a

nonpossessory security right in a single category of movable assets without requiring a

specific description of the collateral. Secured creditors are now given absolute priority over

other claims, such as labor and tax, both outside and within bankruptcy proceedings.

Registering Property 2008 Registering property was reduced from 3% of the property value to a low fixed fee.

2009

Simplified administrative procedures for registering property and new time limits have

reduced the time to transfer property in Cairo from 193 days to 72.

Trading Across Borders

2008 New one-stop shops were launched for traders at the ports, cutting the time to import by 7

days and the time to export by 5.

2009 Alexandria port continued to upgrade its facilities and speed customs clearance, reducing the

time to export by 1 day and the time to import by 3.

2011 Egypt made trading easier by introducing an electronic system for submitting export and

import documents.

Protecting Minority Investors

2009 New listing rules for the Cairo Stock Exchange strengthened protections for minority

shareholders: now an independent body must assess transactions between interested

parties before they are approved.

2015 Additional requirements have been introduced to strengthen minority investor protections; An

approval of related-party transactions and greater requirements for disclosure of such

transactions to the Egyptian Exchange.

2016 by barring subsidiaries from acquiring shares issued by their parent company.

2017 by increasing shareholder rights and role in major corporate decisions and by clarifying

ownership and control structures.

2018 by increasing shareholder rights and role in major corporate decisions.

2019 strengthened minority investors protections by increasing corporate transparency.

Paying Taxes 2019 by extending value added tax cash refunds to manufacturers in case of a capital investment.

Resolving Insolvency 2019 by introducing the reorganization procedure, allowing debtors to initiate the

reorganization procedure and granting creditors greater participation in the proceedings.

Source: www.doingbusiness.org, accessed in November 2018.


Box. (4):Tourism Market Diversification:

Since the year 2003/2004, a shift towards concentration has been noticed in Egypt’s tourism market, as the European region was getting more dominance in terms of market share, pushing the degree of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI1) to exceed 0.50. The HHI Index was applied to measure the degree of diversification within Egypt's tourism market over the 1989/90-2017/18 period. As can be observed from the following chart, despite the HHI has been fluctuating, it took an upward trend over the entire period, from 0.31 in 1989/90 to 0.60 in 2013/2014. However. It started to drop since 2014/15 till it reached 0.35 in 2016/17 but it hiked again to 0.41 in 2017/18. This still indicates a continued market diversification during the last three years.

This corresponds to the trends reflected in tourism data: a significant increase in number of incoming visitors from European countries and Asia & Pacific and a slight decrease of tourists from other regions, especially from Africa and the Americas. Such downward trend of the HHI index still sheds light on the necessary steps and incentives that are much needed to diversify Egypt's tourism market much more. Such diversification could mitigate tourism demand shocks. Nevertheless, the HHI index never exceeded 0.6, indicating more diversified tourism market, especially when compared to some of neighboring countries in the MENA region.

Market Shares of Tourist Arrivals (1989/90-2017/2018):

______________________________________________________ 1 The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, which traditionally a measure of concentration within industries, is specified in formula as:

, Where i is a particular origin country, n is the total number of origin countries, and xi is the total

n

i

n

iXiXiHHI

1

2

1/

number of visitors from origin country i. The value of HHI will fall between 0 and 1. It will be 1 if visitors to Egypt are completely concentrated in one origin country and will approach 0 as the tourist origins become more diversified.


Glossary Balance of Payments: a statistical statement that summarizes, for a specific period of time, the economic transactions of an economy with the rest of the world. Bilateral Debt: Loans extended by a bilateral creditor. Bilateral Rescheduling Agree-ments: Rescheduling agreements reached bilaterally between the debtor and creditor countries. These are legally the equivalent of new loan agreements. After a Paris Club rescheduling, such agreements are required to put the debt restructuring set forth in the multinational Agreed Minute into effect.

Buyer’s Credit: A financial ar-rangement in which a bank or financial institution, or an export credit agency in the exporting country, extends a loan directly to a foreign buyer or to a bank in the importing country to pay for the purchase of goods and services from the exporting country (also known as financial credit). This term does not refer to credit extended directly from the buyer to the seller (for example, through advance payment for goods and services). Capital Account: a BOP account that covers capital transfers and the acquisition or disposal of non-produced non-financial items, such as patents. Current Account: a BOP account that covers all transactions in goods, services, income, and current transfers between residents and non- residents. Cutoff Date: The date (established at the time of a country’s first Paris Club debt reorganization / restruc-turing) before which loans must have been contracted in order for their debt service to be eligible for restructuring. New loans extended after the cutoff date are protected

from future restructuring (subordi-nation strategy). In exceptional cases, arrears on post-cutoff-date debt can be deferred over short periods of time in restructuring agreements. Debt Instruments: Existing debt instruments typically arise out of contractual relationships under which an institutional unit (the debtor) has an unconditional liability to another institutional unit (the creditor) to repay principal with or without interest, or to pay interest without principal. These instruments include debt securities, loans, trade credit, and currency and deposits. Debt instruments may also be created by the force of law—in particular, obligations to pay taxes or to make other compulsory payments— or through rights and obligations that result in a debtor accepting an obligation to make future payment(s) to a creditor. Debt Service: Refers to payments in respect of both principal and interest. Actual debt service is the set of payments actually made to satisfy a debt obligation, including principal, interest, and any late payment fees. Scheduled debt service is the set of payments, including principal and interest, which is required to be made through the life of the debt. Debt Sustainability Analysis: A study of a country’s medium- to long-term debt situation. A country’s eligibility for support under the HIPC Initiative is determined on the basis of such an analysis, jointly under-taken by the staffs of the IMF, the World Bank, and the country concerned. External Debt: Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those actual current, and not contingent, liabilities that require payment(s) of interest and/or prin-cipal by the debtor at some point(s)


in the future and that are owed to non-residents by residents of an economy. Financial Account: a BOP account that covers transactions between residents and non-residents in direct, portfolio, other investment, financial derivatives, and reserve assets. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): the value of an economy's total output of goods and services, less intermediate consumption, plus net taxes on products and imports. It can be broken down by output, ex-penditure, or income components. The main expenditure aggregates are final consumption of household and government, gross fixed capital formation, changes in inventories and imports and exports of goods and services. International Investment Position (IIP): The IIP is the stock of external financial assets and liabilities on a specified reference date, usually the end of the quarter or year. The change in position between two end- periods reflects financial trans-actions, valuation changes, and other adjustments occurring during the period. Long-Term External Debt: Ex-ternal debt that has a maturity of more than one year. Maturity can be defined either on an original or remaining basis. Multilateral Creditors: These cre-ditors are multilateral institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank, as well as other multilateral development banks. Official Development Assistance (ODA): Flows of official financing administered with the promotion of the economic development and welfare of developing countries as the main objective, and which are concessional in character with a grant

element of at least 25 percent (using a fixed 10 percent rate of discount). By convention, ODA flows comprise contributions of donor government agencies, at all levels, to developing countries (“bilateral ODA”) and to multilateral institutions. ODA receipts comprise disbursements by bilateral donors and multilateral institutions. Lending by export credit agencies - with the pure purpose of export promotion - is excluded. Original Maturity: the period of time from when the financial asset/liability was created to its final maturity date. Paris Club: An informal group of creditor governments that has met regularly in Paris since 1956 to reschedule bilateral debts; the French treasury provides the secretariat. Creditors meet with a debtor country to reschedule its debts as part of the international support provided to a country that is experiencing debt servicing difficulties and is pursuing an adjustment program supported by the IMF. The Paris Club does not have a fixed membership, and its meetings are open to all official creditors that accept its practices and procedures. The core creditors are mainly OECD member countries, but other creditors attend as relevant for a debtor country. Russia became a member in September 1997. Remaining (Residual) Maturity: The period of time until debt payments fall due. In the External Debt Guide, it is recommended that short-term remaining maturity of outstanding external debt be mea-sured by adding the value of outstanding short-term external debt (original maturity) to the value of outstanding long-term external debt (original maturity) due to be paid in one year or less.

central bank of egypt · 2019. 1. 25. · financial account recorded a net inflow of about us$ 22.0...

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