central florida residential market - microsoft · – orlando: 96% • 1,083 new home closings,...
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Central Florida Residential MarketHome Builders Association
Melina Duggal, AICP | February 22, 2012
CURRENT BUYERS
• 2010 - 50% 1st-time buyers• 2011 – 37% 1st-time buyers• Median income = $80,900
– Translates to $250K-$300K house• Married couples (64%)Married couples (64%)• No children under 18 (64%)• 42% were renters
O l d
Image: digitalart / FreeDigitalPhotos.net
• Orlando – 1st time buyers– Families, young singles, empty
nestersnesters– Locals– Foreign influence
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SOURCE: RCLCO, 2010 and 2011 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, U.S. Census Bureau, Associated Designs
Image: digitalart / FreeDigitalPhotos.net
WHAT ARE THEY BUYING?
• Existing homes – National : 84%– Orlando: 96%
• 1,083 new home closings, 27,400 existing home salesg
• Value• Home features
– Flex space
Photo courtesy of LWR Communities
p– Outdoor living– Energy efficient– Luxury touchesLuxury touches– Less formal
• Small lot SFD versus attached productC. 2011 James F. Wilson/Courtesy Builder magazine
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WHERE ARE THEY COMING FROM?ORANGE COUNTY MIGRATION
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Source: IRS, Forbes.com
WHERE ARE THEY COMING FROM? OSCEOLA COUNTY MIGRATION
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Source: IRS, Forbes.com
WHERE ARE THEY COMING FROM? SEMINOLE COUNTY MIGRATION
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Source: IRS, Forbes.com
WHERE ARE THEY COMING FROM?LAKE COUNTY MIGRATION
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Source: IRS, Forbes.com
AGE DRIVES HOUSING CHOICETHE ACTIVE MARKET
Generation 2010 Age US 2010 %
Over 10 P l ti
Orlando MSA 2010 P l ti
Orlando MSA % O 10
% of US Buyers in
2011Population Population Over 10 2011
Eisenhowers 65+ 15% 263K 14% 13%
Baby Boomers 46 – 64 29% 510K 28% 37%
G X 30 4 2 % 4 2K 26% 29%Gen X 30 – 45 25% 472K 26% 29%
Gen Y 11 – 29 31% 593K 32% 22%
Gen Z (?) 0 – 10 295K
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SOURCE: Esri, 2011 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
TRENDS BABY BOOMERS
• Leading edge (56-65 years old) – starting to hit retirement age• Trailing edge (47-55 years old) – mature families, second homes• Themes:
– Work as part of their retirement (home office)– Downsize– Acceptance of two level homes – master downAcceptance of two level homes master down– Space for dining table– Natural light– Entertaining spaceEntertaining space
• Seeking:– Recreation
Enriching experiences– Enriching experiences– Ideal lifestyle – Original and authentic places
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C. 2011 James F. Wilson/Courtesy Builder magazine
TRENDS GEN X
• 31-46 years old – prime home buying and family stage• Large impact on new home communities• Themes:• Themes:
– Single-family detached– Suburbs
Larger lots– Larger lots– In the market for 2nd homes– Big kitchens
Family spacesC. 2011 James F. Wilson/Courtesy Builder magazine
– Family spaces• Seeking:
– Kid and pet friendlyH lth ti lif t l– Healthy, active lifestyle
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C. 2011 James F. Wilson/Courtesy Builder magazine
TRENDS GEN Y
• 12-30 years old – first time home buyers and renters• Diverse group
Th• Themes:– More open to urban areas than other generations (likely age-
related)More accepting of attached product but still prefer SFD– More accepting of attached product, but still prefer SFD
– Community space important– Walkable neighborhoods
Aff d bilit– Affordability– Flexible spaces to accommodate future lifestyle
• Seeking:Pl t t ( t )– Places to connect (party spaces)
– Sustainability– Technology
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C. 2011 James F. Wilson/Courtesy Builder magazine
TRENDS - OVERALL
• Multigenerational housing• Cultural preferencesCultural preferences• Energy efficiency• Right-sized homes
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PRICES BUMPING ALONG BOTTOM
$260,000Median Home Price
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$ ,
US N US E i ti O l d E i ti SFD
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US New US Existing Orlando Existing SFDSOURCE: NAHB, Florida Realtors
AVERAGE LOT SIZE SOLD IN ORLANDO LAST YEAR WAS 55’ WIDE (65’ WIDE W/O UNDER 34’)
35%
25%
30%
10%
15%
20%
0%
5%
10%
0%0-34' 35-44' 45-59' 60-79' 80-99' 100'+
% of 2011 Starts % Lot Supply
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SOURCE: metrostudy
CURRENT SALES IN ORLANDOTop 10 Communities
Annual StartsIndependence (I)Wyndham Lakes (W)
R
Wyndham Lakes (W)VillageWalk at Lake Nona (V)Sawgrass Bay (S)Eagle Creek (EC)Encantada (EN)
I WLWP
Encantada (EN)Esprit-Osceola (E)Windermere Landing (WL)Wickham Park (WP)Reserve at Meadow Lake (R)
EC
V
W
S
Reserve at Meadow Lake (R)EN
E
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SOURCE: RCLCO, metrostudy
TOP ANNUAL START COMMUNITIES IN ORLANDO
• Home sizes from 1,286-4,830Average = 2 277– Average = 2,277
• Homes priced from $99-$405K– Average = $225K
• $/SF from $78 $120• $/SF from $78-$120• Trends
– Mixture of buyers – lots of 1st time families primarily fromtime, families, primarily from local market
– Looking for value and space for the $$
– Open to TH as well as TND product
06-11207.2415SOURCE: RCLCO, metrostudy