central weather bureau - msroc.org.t. share (m3/person/year) twn average jpn chn ......

Central Weather Bureau

Missions and Operations

Shin, Tzay-Chyn

Director General, Central Weather Bureau

Background

CWB Missions

R2O projects to support CWB Operations

The way forward

TEMBIN

Geographical environment of Taiwan

BOLAVEN

2012.Aug. Location

continent/ocean boundary

tropical/sub-tropical

Topography

over 1km ~ 32%

peak ~ 3950m

Size

small 350km x 150km

Population 23M

large density /vulnerable

small amount/ limited MP

Rainfall vary with season and location

Rainfall rate

Northern Taiwan Central and southern Taiwan Eastern Taiwan

Contributed from short period, small scale, intensive events

水利署(WRA):：「台灣地區水資源運用現況與未來發展問題」From Water Resources Agency, R.O.C.

Limited water resources

USA

Precip. share

(m3/person/year)

TWN

Average

JPN

CHN

Avg annual Precp.

CWB cares about

http://t17.techbang.com

http://keepsurfing.pixnet.net

http://www.tia.org.tw

http://chinataiwan.org

Spring rain

(Feb-Mar)

Meiyu heavy rain (May-Jun)

Heat

wave

(Jul-Sep)

Typhoon

(Jul-Sep)

Cold surge

(Dec-Feb)

Drought

(Apr--)

CWB MISSIONs

Enhance the science-based observation and forecast capabilities for

delivering accurate and timely service information to all sectors

Promote weather awareness and knowledge as well as encourage

cross-sectoral dialogues for all possible value added usages &

applications

Provide science based meteorological service information to government and

society for safer and better life

To Fulfill the Missions

Modernized Refined BroadenedObservations Forecasts Services++

Partnership is the key to the success of the missions

NSF, NASA, NCAR, Univ.

NOAA RESEARCH PROGRAMS, DTC

OAR/NSSL, ESRL/GSD

NWS/MDL, NCEP, NWSUSA

BASIC

RESEARCH

APPLIED

RESEARCH

TRANSITION TO

OPERATIONS

NMHS

OPERATIONS

Answer

Science

Questions

Develop

MethodsPrepare for

ImplementationGenerate

Products

External /

University

Investigators

Government

Research

Laboratories

NMHS

R&D Centers

NMHS

Central

Operations

PHASE

What?

Who?

Adopted from http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/ScienceMtg_04-27-06.html

Partnership for Research to Operation

END USER

APPLICATIONS

Effective

Use of

Products

Venders

Communities

Government AGs

Value added

businesses

NSF, NASA, NCAR, Univ.

NOAA RESEARCH PROGRAMS, DTC

OAR/NSSL, ESRL/GSD

NWS/MDL, NCEP, NWSUSA

BASIC

RESEARCH

APPLIED

RESEARCH

TRANSITION TO

OPERATIONS

NMHS

OPERATIONS

Answer

Science

Questions

Develop

MethodsPrepare for

ImplementationGenerate

Products

External /

University

Investigators

Government

Research

Laboratories

NMHS

R&D Centers

NMHS

Central

Operations

PHASE

What?

Who?

Adopted from http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/ScienceMtg_04-27-06.html

Partnership for Research to Operation

Taiwan

NSC, A.Sinica, Univ.

NSC, NCDR, TTFRI, NSPO

Univ. Cooperation centers

CWB, WRA, SWCB,

D. or O. programs

CEOC

Value added

Businesses

END USER

APPLICATIONS

Effective

Use of

Products

Venders

Communities

Government AGs

Value added

businesses

Targeted Observations

(NTU,TTFRI)

DOTSTAR missions

2003~2013 :

54Typhoons,

69 missions, 373 Hours, 1146 Drops.

Dropsonde

Flight domain

National

Cheng Kung

university

•Data buoy maintain and

information management

operations

•Tide gauge data QC

National

Taiwan

Ocean

University

Develop AIS

( Automatic

Identification System)

marine meteorology

information broadcast

system

Marine Meteorology

Observations

2014/6/10 16

GPSRO – NCAR,JCSDA(NCEP)

NSPO,TTFRI ,Univ.

FS3(2005)/COSMIC

• Since RO data could actually improve the forecast of sub-tropical

high which is crucial to typhoon recurve. The RO run shows

positive impact on the track forecast during typhoon recurve.

• Typhoon Megi in 2010 is a typical example.

GPS RO Impact on the Typhoon Track Forecast

With RO

No RO

With RO

No RO

Radar

Satellite

Sfc Obs &

Sounding

Lightning

LAPS

Single

Radar

Process

Rain Gauge

Hydro

Model*

QPESUMS - OAR/NSSL

Precip

Products

Hydro

Products

Users

QPF2D/3D

Radar

Mosaic

Mosaic

Products

Verification

Warning

Decision

Products

QPE

RCWF

RCKT

RCHL

RCCG

RCCK

RCMK

CWB/WRF – NCAR, NTU, NCU, NNU, TTFRI

Development and enhance of

CWB WRF model for operation

Identify suitable model

configurations for major weather

phenomenons

Improve data assimilation and model

components for better forecast

Provide ensemble members and

develop ensemble techniques to

incorporate forecast uncertainties

Optimize model operation and enrich

post processing for model

applications

45km

15km

5km

National

Sun-yat-sen

university

Development of

Ocean circulation

model and data

assimilation

100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Industrial

Technology

Research

Institute

Development of wave

model, data

assimilation and

ensemble prediction

National

Taiwan

Ocean

University

freak wave diagnose

and develop early

warning guidance

NH

Esia

National

Central

University

Development of surge

inundation and

implementation of

operation system

Taiwan

Marine meteorology forecast system

HWRF – NWS/NCEP/EMC, DTC, TTFRI

Adopt and test HWRF for

Taiwan area

Training and workshop

Test Performance of

HWRF in Taiwan

Uses HWRF as ensemble

members

HWRF-T Fixed domain focus the

TC heavy rainfall forecast on

Taiwan

Develop of Intra-seasonal to Inter-annual climate

monitoring and forecast techniques

- NWS/NCEP/CPC, EMC

Create CWB/TC track potential

(16days) using NCEP/GFS and

rovide for CPC Tropical Hazards

outlook

Provide CWB/GFS 45 days model

output for MJO forecast experiment

Provide CWB precipitation obs. for

CPC global rainfall monitoring

Attend the CPC Monsoon Desk

training program

Participate the Climate Diagnostics

and Prediction Workshop

2th CWB next generation Global

Forecast System planning workshop

(May 7~9, 2014)

Dynamical

Model MJO

Forecasts

1987

CDC

Cyber 205

Comp pwr as

1/3704 current

1994

CRAY

YMP-8i

Comp pwr as

1/303 current

2000

FUJITSU

VPP5000

Comp pwr as

1/15 current

2006

IBM

P5-575

Comp pwr as

x1

1984-89

Phase 1

19 90-94

Phase 2

1995- 2001

Phase 3

20 02-09

Phase 4Top500/氣象排名No293/No18

Top500/氣象排名No91/No14


●●

●●

2006

GFS : 40KM

RFS : 20/4KM; 45/15/5KM

EFS : 40 mbrs/day

1994

GFS : 165KM

RFS : 65/20KM

2000

GFS : 110KM

RFS : 45/15/5KM1987

GFS : 275KM

RFS : 90KM

CWB NWP improved as HPC power increased

Background based on the slide from

NWS Director Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

Wave Forecast

NWW3, SWAN,Tide

Typhoon Forecast

TWRF

12-72 Hours Forecast

NFS, WRF

7-30 days Forecast

GFS

GFS-ensemble

1-6 months Forecast

CFS-ensemble Climate/Weather

CWB

CWB

0-12 Hours Forecast

LAPS, ARPS, QPESUMS, ANC

CWB NWP model improvementCWBGFS

CWB WRF 72 Hr forecast (2009-2012)

+AMSUA

(more)

t320l40

GSICUP

+gpsroradiation

t240l30VPP->IBM

PBL

T180l30

(radiance

Missing-3 mon)

SSIT120L30

1998

T79L18=>T119L18

Land model

Non-COSMIC gpsro

IASI

16

93

152

203

268

333

411

7 66

104

152

215

289

366

8

67

102

134 168

215

285

148

120

248

193

93688

243

369

130

286

173

92

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0 12 24 36 48 60 72

forecast hours (hr)

trac

k er

rors

(km

)

CV3_OL_DFI_GD

CV5_OL_DFI_GD

CV5_OL_DFI_KF

CV5_OL_DFI_KF_Par

WRF_OP

CWB

2012 TWRF

improvement

(247 cases)

Official TC

forecast track

error from

1994 to 2010

official forecast

Morakot 2009

Megi 2010

Challenge

1987

CDC

Cyber 205

Comp pwr as

1/3704 current

1994

CRAY

YMP-8i

Comp pwr as

1/303 current

2000

FUJITSU

VPP5000

Comp pwr as

1/15 current

2006

IBM

P5-575

Comp pwr as

x1

2012~2014

FUJITSU

FX10/PFX10 (1.2PFlops)

Comp pwr as 92 of 200619 84-89

Phase 1

19 90-94

Phase 2

1995- 2001

Phase 3

20 02-09

Phase 4

20 10-15

Phase 5





2015

GFS: <20KM

RFS : 1~2KM

(最細網格)

EFS : >100 mbrs/day

●●

●●

2006

GFS : 40KM

RFS : 20/4KM

EFS : 40 mbrs/day

1994

GFS : 165KM

RFS : 65/20KM

2000

GFS : 110KM

RFS : 45/15/5KM1987

GFS : 275KM

RFS : 90KM

Opportunity

FS7(2016,2018)/ COSMIC 2

Opportunity

Summary

Modern observation systems require extensive knowledge

to operate and effectively use

Increasingly complexities of data assimilation and modeling

systems require team work to develop

Cross-sectoral applications require multidisciplinary

science and collaboration

Human resources development is necessary for sustainable

development

Appreciate the helps from US NWS and ROC Meteorological Society

Respond to the increasing demands

Collaborate with all of you are highly needed

生活有氣象

Thanks for your attention

central weather bureau - msroc.org.t. share (m3/person/year) twn average jpn chn ......

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