cerfacs: christian pagé laurent terray météo-france: philippe dandin pascale delecluse serge...

CERFACS:Christian PagéLaurent Terray

Météo-France:Philippe Dandin

Pascale DelecluseSerge Planton

Jean-Marc MoisselinMaryvonne Kerdoncuff

High resolution climate scenarios for hydrology in France

Climate change information services for decision making and adaptation Workshop

KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands - 10-11 Sep 2009

CERFACS Météo-France 2/11

Description

Objective: Provide climate change scenarios data

• Vulnerability studies of human activities and environment

• Effects of climate change on flood regimes and droughts, on water resource management and land use, ...

Motivations: Quite rapid increase in the number of data requests in the last few years

Consequences: a more organized way of providing data to users is clearly needed

• Re-focus research teams on their main activity


Example Use Case

EP-Loire project example

• Etablissement Public Loire (6 Regions, 16 Departments, 18 cities, etc.)

• Effects of climate change on flood regimes and droughts in the Loire River Basin

Stakeholders and basin managers

Data request

• Call of opportunity to the French scientific community

• Let climate research groups choose and provide climate change scenarios

• To be used by other research groups working in hydrology, sociology, ...


Production

• Météo-France SAFRAN Regional re-analysis (1970-2007) (7 daily or hourly parameters, France 8-km resolution)

• Dynamical/statistical downscaling: Daily Temperature & Precipitation, 50-km

• Weather-type statistical downscaling: 7 daily/hourly parameters, 8-km

• Several SRES scenarios; several models (ARPEGE and IPCC); 1950-2100

What is provided to research groups: modelers and study teams

• Data in ASCII format

• Selection of data points over the Loire Basin, for present and future climate (1950-2100)

• Daily and hourly timestep (depending on specific modellers’ needs)

Example: EP-Loire Use Case

Reports from research groups will be delivered to stakeholders


Examples of output in reports for stakeholders

Example: EP-Loire Use Case

Source: ReXHySS project preliminary results

Actual

2050

2100

Monthly Mean of Seine river flow

Actual

Obs

Seine river flow evolution uncertainties

Jan Dec

2050

2100

Hydrological models

Mean duration (months)

Area % of France

France Past Droughts

20

5

20 40

Source: Météo-France CLIMSEC projectCourtesy of J.-P. Vidal


Current Status

Data requests are mostly done by phone calls and emails

• Data is mainly delivered through direct data transfer means (ftp, ...)

• Extraction is not fully automated

• Expertise is on a case by case evaluation

• Meetings, round tables, email and phone support

• Most of users have a great need in guidance (uncertainties)

• Direct data is delivered to modelers & impact study teams

• Stakeholders need reports and indicators

Several current initiatives to automate the data requests/delivery

Important: must have an expert team for guidance


Related initiatives

DRIAS objective: Provide Access to French Regional Climate data and products for Impact and Adaptation of our Society and Environment

Co-Funding: French Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development

Coordination: Météo-France (Climatology department)

Partners• Météo-France GAME (Research Group for Meteorological Modelling)• IPSL (Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute)• CERFACS (Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique)

Project Duration: 2 years (Sep 2009 - Sep 2011)

Aims: Give access to future climate data produced with• Several Greenhouse gas emission scenarios• Several Regional climate models• Several Downscaling methods• A Standard Format• Easy access• Expertise!

Quantify several uncertainty sources


Related initiatives

DRIAS

Interface will be based on Météo-France Climathèque• This system allows access to different climate products and services• Generic system with internet up to date technologies• Easy to add new services

Select the period

Select the area

Select the meteorological parameter

Select the product format

Select the scale of colours


Related initiatives

DRIAS

Products: many ideas, few realizations, no industrialisation

Drought

Gaussen Climatic Diagram (Rainfall-2.Temperature Diagram)

Boxplot to show uncertainties

Larger uncertainties for2081-2100 vs 2046-2065


Related initiatives

IS-ENES: InfraStructure for the European Network for Earth System. IS-ENES will develop a virtual Earth System Modelling Resource Centre (vERC)

• Funded by EU FP7• 20 partners, led by IPSL

WP11/JRA5: Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community• Provide a prototype for a web service interface• Bridge the gap

• climate modelling community• climate impact community• decision makers

Develop adaptation and mitigation policies

IS-ENESGlobal Climate Scenarios

DRIASDownscaled Regional Scenarios

France Regional Level

International Level


Conclusions

1. Organisation of response to climate scenarios requests is taking shape

More collaboration between actors and requests at the France national level

2. Expertise teams for stakeholders and modellers is essential

Free climate products access without an expertise team is a bad idea

Need for contacts after products delivery should not be underestimated

3. Some European collaboration is taking place within the IS-ENES project

Questions?

cerfacs: christian pagé laurent terray météo-france: philippe dandin pascale delecluse serge...

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