cfa global champion powerpoint
TRANSCRIPT
CFA Institute Research Challenge Atlanta, GA - Americas Competition
Canisius CollegeBuffalo, NY
Matthew CoadCarl Larsson
Stephen MillerKevin Monheim
Ryan Zimmer
Company OverviewIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Executive Summary
Main Features 4th largest Self-Storage Company in the U.S. 92% of Revenue is derived from Rental Income Strong Management Platform Over 500 Properties in Portfolio
SSS $96.00
SSS $93.95
1
Market ProfileClosing Price (04/02/2015) $93.9552-Week High / Low $97.76 / $72.88Average Volume (3M) 247,279Diluted Shares Out. 34,217,717Market Cap $3.18BDividend Yield 3.20%Beta 0.87EV / Revenue 14.5xEV / EBITDA 23.3xP / FFO Share 23.5xInstitutional Holdings 96.85%Insider Holdings 2.60%
Company OverviewIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Competitive Advantage
Revenue Management
Program
Web-based Marketing
Call Center
2
Location and Convenience: 24/7 Security System; keyboard
controlled access
Web Marketing: 70% of sales driven by internet contact
with customers
Call Center: 31,000 Rental Inquiries a Month
Revenue Management System: Uses 10-year historical information
Company OverviewIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
State% of 2013
# Of Prop.
% of 2014
# Of Prop.
Texas 26.1% 117 25.1% 133Florida 13.9% 68 14.3% 72New York 6.7% 34 8.4% 35New Jersey 7.7% 21 7.6% 29Georgia 5.6% 30 5.5% 30Ohio 4.4% 23 4.0% 23Alabama 4.2% 22 3.4% 22Virginia 3.9% 19 3.3% 19Louisiana 3.7% 16 2.6% 17Mississippi 2.9% 15 2.6% 15Remaining 15 20.9% 113 23.2% 123
Total 100% 478 100% 518
Properties
3
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Industry Overview
LEGEND0 No threat to Sovran1 Insignificant threat to Sovran2 Low threat to Sovran3 Moderate threat to Sovran4 Significant threat to Sovran5 High Threat to Sovran
Porter’s Five Forces
Bargaining Power of Customers – MODERATE
Intensity of Competitive Rivalry – MODERATE
Bargaining Power of Suppliers – LOW
Threat of Substitutes – LOW
Barriers to Entry – MODERATE
4
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Competitive Postioning SSS CUBE EXR PSAMarket Cap $3.12B $3.82B $7.71B $34.03B3rd Party ManagementStore Locator on HomepageInteractive Facility Location MapList of Alternative Storage LocationsVan or Truck Rental OptionsClimate-Controlled UnitsVehicle StoragePacking SuppliesPromotions for New Customers24-Hour Call Center
Industry Overview
Economies of Scale vs Smaller Competitors
Increasing Ancillary Revenue Segment
Diverse Service Offerings
5
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Demand Drivers
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020320,000322,000324,000326,000328,000330,000332,000334,000336,000
14.5%
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
Aging and Growing U.S. Population
Population 65 Years and Above
U.S. Economic Growth
Improving Job Market
Encouraging Demographic Trends
(In T
hous
ands
)(In
Tho
usan
ds)
Aug-13Oct-13
Dec-13Feb-14
Apr-14Jun-14
Aug-14Oct-14
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500Job Openings vs Job Separations
Total Job Openings Total Job Separations
20202018
20162014
20122010
30.0%31.0%32.0%33.0%34.0%35.0%36.0%37.0%38.0%39.0%40.0% U.S Rental Rates
6
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Acquisitions
UPREIT Structure Increasing Cost per Acquired Sq. Ft. Increasing Acquisition Expenditures
7
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Revenue Analysis
Occupancy Rates
8
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Profitability
9
YearNet Profit
Margin2008 19.8%2009 10.9%2010 23.2%2011 16.3%2012 25.2%2013 29.0%2014 27.3%
2015E 28.8%2016E 29.2%2017E 29.7%2018E 30.0%2019E 30.2%
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Debt Analysis
Increasing Capacity to Maintain BBB- Credit Rating
Financing through Equity-Debt Ratio of 70%-30%
10
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
DCF Analysis50%
Valuation Methods
EV/EBITDA Multiple25%
11
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Net Operating
Income (NOI) Monte Carlo
Simulation
Relative Multiple Valuation EV / EBITDA Price / FFOPrice / FFO Multiple
25%
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Revenue Growth Breakdown 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019EIncrease in Occupancy Rates 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3%Increase in Sales per Square Ft. 6.0% 5.4% 3.8% 1.5% 1.0%Increase in Total Square Ft. 5.8% 6.0% 4.5% 3.5% 3.0%
Rental Revenue Growth 12.8% 11.9% 8.8% 5.3% 4.3%Ancilliary Revenue Growth 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% 12.5% 12.5%
Total Revenue Growth 13.3% 12.2% 9.3% 6.0% 5.1%
DCF Assumptions - Revenue
12
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
DCF Assumptions - WACC
13
Cost of Equity 2015-16 2017-19Risk Free Rate (1) 2.25% 3.00%Adjusted Beta 0.913 0.913Market Risk Premium 7.75% 7.00%
Cost of Equity 9.33% 9.39%(1) Expected 10-Year U.S. Treasury
Cost of Debt 2015-16 2017-19Risk Free Rate (1) 2.25% 3.00%BBB Options Spread 2.08% 2.24%
Cost of Debt 4.33% 5.24%(1) Expected 10-Year U.S. Treasury
(2) Option-Adj Spread (OAS) of the BofA MLUS Corporate BBB Index
Cap Rate 6.00%
2015-16 2017-198.33% 8.77%
WACC
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
DCF Output - Monte Carlo Simulation
Inputs to Simulation Occupancy Rate Asking Rate Per Square Foot
Acquisition Rate WACC Cap Rate
14
4.0% 87.4% 8.6%
Simulation DataMean 94.84$ SD 9.60$ 5th Percentile 80.20$ Median 94.26$ 95th Percentile 111.80$
`
SELL HOLD BUY
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
CompanyEnt. Val.
(M)EV /
EBITDA P / FFOEV / Rev
SSS $3,957.4 23.3x 23.5x 14.5xCUBE $5,077.5 25.1x 22.9x 13.7xEXR $10,266.4 25.4x 26.3x 15.6xPSA $38,284.7 23.9x 24.5x 16.8x
Mean 24.4x 24.3x 15.1xMedian 24.5x 24.0x 15.0x
Relative Valuation
15
Current Price Price / FFO
$93.95 $98.81
EV / EBITDA
$97.13
Valuation Metrics
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
DCF Analysis50%
Price Target
EV/EBITDA Multiple25%
16
Price / FFO Multiple25%
$94.84
$96.00
$98.81 $97.13
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Main Risks
RR1 = Regulatory Risk – REIT
Classification
OR2 = Operational Risks – Loss Credit
Rating
MR1 = Market Risk – Rise in Interest Rates
ER1 = Economic Risks – Easing of Loan
Requirements
17
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
18
Concentration Risk (MR3)
Time Oil Price / Barrel# Oil Rigs in
TexasSep-14 $94.51 905Apr-15 $51.91 455
% Change -45.1% -49.7%
46
20-30
10-19
< 10
Number of Facilities
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
18
Corporate Governance (OR1)
Disclosure and Transparency
Executive Management
Board of DirectorsRights and Obligations of Shareholders
Takeover Defense
0
1
2
3
4
5
KEY1 Insignificant threat to Shareholders 2 Low threat to Shareholders3 Moderate threat to Shareholders4 Significant threat to Shareholders5 High Threat to Shareholders
Rating Methodology
Disclosure and Transparency – INSIGNIFICANT Executive Management – INSIGNIFICANT Board of Directors – SIGNIFICANT Takeover Defense – LOW Rights and Obligations of Shareholders – LOW
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Potential Loss of BBB- Credit Rating (OR2)
Increase in Cost of Debt due to downgrade to Junk Bond Status is roughly 175 basis points
Mitigations: Maintain 70E – 30D Financing Structure Management Guidance
DescriptionPrincipal Due (thousands)
Coupon Rate
Increase in Coupon Rate if Credit Rate Downgraded
2016 Term Note $150,000 6.38% 8.13%2020 Term Note $100,000 5.54% 7.29%2024 Term Note $175,000 4.53% 6.27%
19
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
1 Year CorrelationRMZ and SSS 0.97RMZ and 10 Yr -0.93SSS and 10 Yr -0.94
Interest Rates and Cap Rates Spread (MR1)
20
3.6%
`
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Conclusion
Current Price Upside
SSS $93.95 SSS $96.00
Target Price
2.2%
Merits• Experienced
Management• Technology
Platforms• Macroeconomic
Tailwinds• Improving
Financial Position• Limited Supply
HOLD
Concerns• Maturing
Occupancy Rates• Increasing Price
of Acquisitions• Concentration
Risk• Interest Rate
Uncertainty
21
Conclusion
Presentation
Executive Summary
Industry Overview
Properties
Competitive Advantage
Porter’s 5 Forces
Demand Drivers
NPM and Payout Ratio
Revenue & Occupancy Rates
Debt Analysis
Acquisitions
Valuation Methods
WACC
Monte Carlo
Relative Multiples
Price Target
Revenue Assumptions
Concentration Risk
Loss of Credit Rating Interest Rat
es
Main Risks
Conclusion
Appendix
Competitive Positioning
UPREIT Structure
Ownership Structure
SWOT
Interest Rates
Cap Rate - Bond
Spread
Dot Plot
Debt Schedule
Revenue Growth
LT Risk-Free Rate
Assumed Cap Rate
Monte Carlo
Buy Scenario
Buy Scenario Statistics
Cap Rate Assumptions
Relative Valuation
Multiples
FFO Calcs
Premium
Business Description
Balance Sheet
Income Statement
Financial Condition
Lack of Independen
ce
Insider Holdings
Management
State Saturation
Levels
Self-Storage Growth
Beta Analysis
Treasury Stock
Method
EVA
Properties
Marriage Stats
Conclusion
Historical Balance Sheet Appendix($ in Millions) Historical Balance Sheet Projected Balance SheetAs of December 31, 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014ASSETSGross Property, Plant & Equipment $1,364.5 $1,420.0 $1,538.6 $1,742.4 $1,864.6 $2,178.0Accumulated Depreciation (239.00) (271.80) (292.70) (325.00) (366.50) (411.70)Total Real Estate Assets 1,125.48 1,148.16 1,245.87 1,417.39 1,498.17 1,766.30
% Growth 2.0% 8.5% 13.8% 5.7% 16.2%
Cash And Equivalents 10.71 5.77 7.32 7.26 9.52 8.50Accounts Receivable 2.35 2.38 2.94 3.44 5.12 5.80Other Receivables 0.17 0.25 0.59 0.86 0.88 0.60 Other Intangibles - 0.55 2.52 2.89 1.09 2.20 Loans Receivable Current - 2.80 - - - -Other Current Assets 21.13 4.41 47.64 14.44 5.98 6.50 Trading Asset Securities - - - - 0.79 -Deferred Charges, LT 2.50 1.50 4.40 3.60 4.30 6.30Other Long-Term Assets 22.76 19.73 32.39 34.44 36.02 58.60Investments in Joint Ventures - - - - - -Total Assets 1,185.1 1,185.5 1,343.7 1,484.3 1,561.9 1,854.8
% Growth 0.0% 13.3% 10.5% 5.2% 15.9%
LIABILITIESCurr. Port. of LT Debt - 36.69 - 100.00 5.59 5.60Long-Term Debt 492.74 462.79 636.17 599.96 628.18 799.00Accounts Payable 21.82 23.39 30.61 35.06 36.34 41.80Curr. Income Taxes Payable - - 0.20 - - -Def. Tax Liability, Curr. - - 0.10 1.00 0.90 1.30 Other Current Liabilities 0.50 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Unearned Revenue, Non-Current 4.98 4.93 6.08 6.39 6.71 7.30Other Non-Current Liabilities - - - - - -Total Liabilities 520.04 528.40 673.67 742.91 678.23 855.50
% Growth 1.6% 27.5% 10.3% -8.7% 22.5%
Common Stock 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.40 Additional Paid In Capital 814.99 816.99 862.47 943.60 1,066.40 1,183.40 Retained Earnings - - - - - -Distributions In Excess Of Earnings (139.90) (148.30) (169.80) (172.80) (162.50) (167.70)Treasury Stock (27.20) (27.20) (27.20) (27.20) (27.20) (27.20)Comprehensive Inc. and Other (11.30) (10.30) (10.30) (15.20) (6.40) (13.00)Total Common Equity 636.97 631.58 655.54 728.73 870.71 975.90
% Growth -0.8% 3.8% 11.2% 19.5% 11.9%
Minority Interest 28.09 25.56 14.47 12.67 12.94 13.60
Total Equity 665.06 657.14 670.01 741.40 883.65 989.50% Growth -1.2% 2.0% 10.7% 19.2% 11.8%
Total Liabilities And Equity 1,185.1 1,185.5 1,343.7 1,484.3 1,561.9 1,845.0% Growth 0.0% 13.3% 10.5% 5.2% 15.9%
Conclusion
Historical Balance Sheet – Common Size Appendix
($ in Millions) Historical Balance Sheet Common Size Analysis Historical Income StatementAs of December 31, 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014ASSETS 191 192 201 234 274 326Gross Property, Plant & Equipment 714.2% 739.3% 766.0% 744.3% 681.8% 668.0%Accumulated Depreciation -17.5% -19.1% -19.0% -18.7% -19.7% -18.9%Total Real Estate Assets 589.1% 597.8% 620.3% 605.5% 547.8% 541.7%
Cash And Equivalents 5.6% 3.0% 3.6% 3.1% 3.5% 2.6%Accounts Receivable 1.2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8%Other Receivables 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%Other Intangibles - 0.3% 1.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.7%Loans Receivable Current - 1.5% - - - -Other Current Assets 11.1% 2.3% 23.7% 6.2% 2.2% 2.0%Trading Asset Securities - - - - 0.3% -Deferred Charges, LT 1.3% 0.8% 2.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.9%Other Long-Term Assets 11.9% 10.3% 16.1% 14.7% 13.2% 18.0%Investments in Joint Ventures - - - - - -Total Assets 620.3% 617.2% 669.0% 634.1% 571.1% 568.8%
LIABILITIESCurr. Port. of LT Debt - 19.1% 42.7% 2.0% 1.7%Long-Term Debt 257.9% 240.9% 316.7% 256.3% 229.7% 245.0%Accounts Payable 11.4% 12.2% 15.2% 15.0% 13.3% 12.8%Curr. Income Taxes Payable - - 0.1% - - -Def. Tax Liability, Curr. - - 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%Other Current Liabilities 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%Unearned Revenue, Non-Current 2.6% 2.6% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.2%Other Non-Current Liabilities - - - - - -Total Liabilities 272.2% 275.1% 335.4% 317.4% 248.0% 262.4%
Common Stock 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%Additional Paid In Capital 426.6% 425.4% 429.4% 403.1% 389.9% 362.9%Retained Earnings - - - - - -Distributions In Excess Of Earnings -73.2% -77.2% -84.5% -73.8% -59.4% -51.4%Treasury Stock -14.2% -14.2% -13.5% -11.6% -9.9% -8.3%Comprehensive Inc. and Other -5.9% -5.4% -5.1% -6.5% -2.3% -4.0%Total Common Equity 333.4% 328.8% 326.4% 311.3% 318.3% 299.3%
Minority Interest 14.7% 13.3% 7.2% 5.4% 4.7% 4.2%
Total Equity 348.1% 342.1% 333.6% 316.7% 323.1% 303.5%
Total Liabilities And Equity 620.3% 617.2% 669.0% 634.1% 571.1% 565.8%
Conclusion
Projected Balance Sheet AppendixProjected Balance Sheet
2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
$2,460.5 $2,779.9 $3,041.0 $3,259.8 $3,457.9(465.09) (525.48) (574.84) (616.20) (653.63)
1,995.38 2,254.44 2,466.21 2,643.65 2,804.2613.0% 13.0% 9.4% 7.2% 6.1%
11.32 12.70 13.87 14.70 15.446.31 7.07 7.73 8.19 8.601.07 1.21 1.32 1.40 1.47 2.84 2.23 3.27 3.14 3.41
- - - - -12.75 14.30 15.62 16.55 17.39
- - - - -6.21 6.97 7.61 8.07 8.47
56.49 63.36 69.23 73.35 77.05- - - - -
2,092.4 2,362.3 2,584.9 2,769.0 2,936.112.8% 12.9% 9.4% 7.1% 6.0%
- 150.00 - - -824.24 759.57 977.41 1,032.55 1,081.47
50.62 56.77 62.03 65.72 69.04- - - - -
1.42 1.60 1.74 1.85 1.94 0.68 0.76 0.83 0.88 0.92
9.14 10.25 11.20 11.87 12.47- - - - -
886.10 978.96 1,053.22 1,112.87 1,165.843.6% 10.5% 7.6% 5.7% 4.8%
0.47 0.53 0.58 0.61 0.64 1,394.98 1,568.64 1,714.31 1,838.58 1,954.93
- - - - -(163.82) (158.57) (151.42) (143.76) (135.47)
(27.20) (27.20) (27.20) (27.20) (27.20)(15.79) (17.72) (19.36) (20.51) (21.54)
1,188.64 1,365.68 1,516.92 1,647.73 1,771.36 21.8% 14.9% 11.1% 8.6% 7.5%
17.64 19.78 21.61 22.90 24.05
1,206.27 1,385.46 1,538.53 1,670.63 1,795.4121.9% 14.9% 11.0% 8.6% 7.5%
2,092.4 2,364.4 2,591.8 2,783.5 2,961.313.4% 13.0% 9.6% 7.4% 6.4%
($ in Millions)As of December 31,ASSETSGross Property, Plant & EquipmentAccumulated DepreciationTotal Real Estate Assets
% Growth
Cash And EquivalentsAccounts ReceivableOther ReceivablesOther IntangiblesLoans Receivable CurrentOther Current AssetsTrading Asset SecuritiesDeferred Charges, LTOther Long-Term AssetsInvestments in Joint VenturesTotal Assets
% Growth
LIABILITIESCurr. Port. of LT DebtLong-Term DebtAccounts PayableCurr. Income Taxes PayableDef. Tax Liability, Curr.Other Current LiabilitiesUnearned Revenue, Non-CurrentOther Non-Current LiabilitiesTotal Liabilities
% Growth
Common StockAdditional Paid In CapitalRetained EarningsDistributions In Excess Of EarningsTreasury StockComprehensive Inc. and OtherTotal Common Equity
% Growth
Minority Interest
Total Equity% Growth
Total Liabilities And Equity% Growth
Conclusion
Projected Balance Sheet – Common Size Appendix
Historical Income Statement2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E370 415 453 480 504665.7% 670.6% 671.4% 679.3% 685.9%-18.9% -18.9% -18.9% -18.9% -18.9%
539.9% 543.8% 544.5% 550.9% 556.3%
3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%0.8% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
- - - - -3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%
- - - - -1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
15.3% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3%- - - - -
566.1% 569.8% 570.7% 577.0% 582.4%
243.7% 228.7% 213.7% 198.7% 183.7%13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7%
- - - - -0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
- - - - -239.8% 236.1% 232.5% 231.9% 231.3%
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%400.3% 415.3% 430.3% 445.3% 460.3%
- - - - --61.6% -61.6% -61.6% -61.6% -61.6%
-7.4% -6.6% -6.0% -5.7% -5.4%-4.3% -4.3% -4.3% -4.3% -4.3%
321.6% 329.4% 334.9% 343.4% 351.4%
4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
326.4% 334.2% 339.7% 348.1% 356.2%
566.1% 570.4% 572.2% 580.0% 587.4%
($ in Millions)As of December 31,ASSETSGross Property, Plant & EquipmentAccumulated DepreciationTotal Real Estate Assets
Cash And EquivalentsAccounts ReceivableOther ReceivablesOther IntangiblesLoans Receivable CurrentOther Current AssetsTrading Asset SecuritiesDeferred Charges, LTOther Long-Term AssetsInvestments in Joint VenturesTotal Assets
LIABILITIESCurr. Port. of LT DebtLong-Term DebtAccounts PayableCurr. Income Taxes PayableDef. Tax Liability, Curr.Other Current LiabilitiesUnearned Revenue, Non-CurrentOther Non-Current LiabilitiesTotal Liabilities
Common StockAdditional Paid In CapitalRetained EarningsDistributions In Excess Of EarningsTreasury StockComprehensive Inc. and OtherTotal Common Equity
Minority Interest
Total Equity
Total Liabilities And Equity
Conclusion
Historical Income Statement AppendixHistorical Income Statement Projected Income Statement
($ in Millions) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014RevenueRental Income $183.1 $182.9 $188.4 $217.9 $253.4 $302.0 Ancilliary Income $8.0 $9.2 $12.5 $16.2 $20.1 $24.0
Total Revenue $191.0 $192.1 $200.9 $234.1 $273.5 $326.1% Growth 0.5% 4.6% 16.5% 16.8% 13.1%
ExpensesProperty Expenses $70.1 $70.9 $75.3 $81.6 $92.3 $117.3SGA $18.6 $21.9 $26.0 $32.3 $34.9 $40.8Depr & Amort $32.7 $32.9 $34.8 $40.5 $45.2 $51.7
Operating Expenses $121.5 $125.7 $136.1 $154.4 $172.4 $209.8% Growth 3.5% 8.3% 13.4% 11.7% 15.5%
Operating Income $69.6 $66.4 $64.7 $79.7 $101.1 $116.3% Growth -4.6% -2.5% 23.1% 26.9% 9.0%% Margin 36.4% 34.6% 32.2% 34.0% 37.0% 35.7%
Interest Income (Expense) ($50.0) ($31.6) ($38.5) ($33.2) ($32.0) ($34.5)Income from JV $0.2 $0.2 ($0.3) $0.9 $1.9 $2.0
Income from Continuing Ops $19.8 $35.0 $25.8 $47.4 $71.0 $83.8Income from Disc Ops $1.1 $7.6 $5.7 $8.2 $3.1 $5.2
NI $20.9 $42.5 $31.6 $55.6 $74.1 $89.0% Growth 103.4% -25.8% 76.3% 33.2% 9.3%% Margin 10.9% 22.1% 15.7% 23.8% 27.1% 27.3%
Noncontrolling Interest ($1.7) ($1.9) ($0.9) ($0.5) ($0.5) ($0.5)NI to common shareholders $19.2 $40.6 $30.6 $55.1 $73.7 $88.4
% Growth 111.9% -24.6% 80.0% 33.6% 9.4%% Margin 10.0% 21.2% 15.2% 23.5% 26.9% 27.1%
NOI $102.3 $99.3 $99.6 $120.2 $146.3 $168.0% Growth -2.9% 0.3% 20.7% 21.7% 12.3%% Margin 53.6% 51.7% 49.6% 51.4% 53.5% 51.5%
FFO $54.5 $67.3 $67.4 $92.5 $117.2 $135.5% Growth 23.6% 0.1% 37.2% 26.7% 12.3%% Margin 28.5% 35.0% 33.6% 39.5% 42.9% 41.5%
Conclusion
Projected Income Statement AppendixProjected Income Statement Historical Income Statement
2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
$340.7 $381.4 $414.8 $437.0 $455.8 $28.8 $33.2 $38.1 $42.9 $48.3
$369.6 $414.6 $452.9 $479.9 $504.113.3% 12.2% 9.3% 5.9% 5.0%
$132.96 $147.96 $160.39 $168.57 $175.66$46.2 $51.5 $55.8 $58.6 $61.1$58.4 $66.0 $72.2 $77.4 $82.1
$237.6 $265.4 $288.3 $304.6 $318.813.3% 11.7% 8.6% 5.6% 4.7%
$132.0 $149.1 $164.6 $175.3 $185.313.5% 13.0% 10.4% 6.5% 5.7%35.7% 36.0% 36.3% 36.5% 36.8%
($35.3) ($39.0) ($41.9) ($44.3) ($46.4)$2.1 $2.4 $2.6 $2.8 $2.9
$98.8 $112.5 $125.3 $133.8 $141.8$7.7 $8.6 $9.4 $10.0 $10.5
$106.5 $121.2 $134.7 $143.8 $152.319.7% 13.8% 11.2% 6.7% 5.9%28.8% 29.2% 29.7% 30.0% 30.2%
($0.68) ($0.76) ($0.83) ($0.88) ($0.93)$105.8 $120.4 $133.9 $142.9 $151.419.6% 13.8% 11.2% 6.7% 5.9%28.6% 29.0% 29.6% 29.8% 30.0%
$190.4 $215.1 $236.8 $252.7 $267.413.3% 13.0% 10.1% 6.7% 5.8%51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53.0%
$157.2 $178.5 $197.5 $211.2 $223.916.0% 13.6% 10.6% 6.9% 6.0%42.5% 43.1% 43.6% 44.0% 44.4%
Historical Income Statement($ in Millions)RevenueRental IncomeAncilliary Income
Total Revenue% Growth
ExpensesProperty ExpensesSGADepr & Amort
Operating Expenses% Growth
Operating Income% Growth% Margin
Interest Income (Expense)Income from JV
Income from Continuing OpsIncome from Disc Ops
NI% Growth% Margin
Noncontrolling InterestNI to common shareholders
% Growth% Margin
NOI% Growth% Margin
FFO% Growth% Margin
Conclusion
Income Statement – Common Size AppendixHistorical Income Statement Forecasted Income Statement Common Size Analysis
($ in Millions) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019ERevenueRental Income 95.8% 95.2% 93.8% 93.1% 92.6% 92.6% 92.2% 92.0% 91.6% 91.1% 90.4%Ancilliary Income 4.1% 4.8% 6.2% 6.9% 7.4% 7.4% 7.8% 8.0% 8.4% 8.9% 9.6%
Total Revenue 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
ExpensesProperty Expenses 36.7% 36.9% 37.5% 34.8% 33.7% 36.0% 36.0% 35.7% 35.4% 35.1% 34.8%SGA 9.8% 11.4% 12.9% 13.8% 12.8% 12.5% 12.5% 12.4% 12.3% 12.2% 12.1%Depr & Amort 17.1% 17.1% 17.3% 17.3% 16.5% 15.9% 15.8% 15.9% 15.9% 16.1% 16.3%
Operating Expenses 63.6% 65.4% 67.8% 66.0% 63.0% 64.3% 64.3% 64.0% 63.7% 63.5% 63.2%
Operating Income 36.4% 34.6% 32.2% 34.0% 37.0% 35.7% 35.7% 36.0% 36.3% 36.5% 36.8%
Interest Income (Expense) -26.2% -16.5% -19.2% -14.2% -11.7% -10.6% -9.6% -9.4% -9.3% -9.2% -9.2%Income from JV 0.1% 0.1% -0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
Income from Continuing Ops 10.4% 18.2% 12.9% 20.3% 26.0% 25.7%Income from Disc Ops 0.6% 3.9% 2.8% 3.5% 1.1% 1.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
NI 10.9% 22.1% 15.7% 23.8% 27.1% 27.3% 28.8% 29.2% 29.7% 30.0% 30.2%
Noncontrolling Interest -0.9% -1.0% -0.5% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%NI to common shareholders 10.0% 21.2% 15.2% 23.5% 26.9% 27.1% 28.6% 29.0% 29.6% 29.8% 30.0%
NOI 53.6% 51.7% 49.6% 51.4% 53.5% 51.5% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53.0%
FFO 28.5% 35.0% 33.6% 39.5% 42.9% 41.5% 42.5% 43.1% 43.6% 44.0% 44.4%
Conclusion
Financial Condition Appendix
Key Financials and Ratios 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019ETotal Revenue (1) $234.1 $273.5 $326.1 $369.6 $414.6 $452.9 $479.9 $504.1Net Operating Income (1) 120.2 146.3 168.0 190.4 215.1 236.8 252.7 267.4Net Profit Margin 23.8% 27.1% 27.3% 28.8% 29.2% 29.7% 30.0% 30.2%Operating Margin 34.0% 37.0% 35.7% 35.7% 36.0% 36.3% 36.5% 36.8%NOI Margin 51.4% 53.5% 51.5% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53.0%Interest Coverage 2.40x 3.16x 3.37x 3.73x 3.82x 3.93x 3.96x 4.00xLT Debt to Assets 0.49x 0.42x 0.45x 0.41x 0.40x 0.39x 0.38x 0.38xFFO / Share $3.14 $3.72 $3.96 $4.36 $4.67 $4.95 $5.12 $5.27Return on Equity 7.6% 8.5% 9.1% 9.0% 8.9% 8.9% 8.7% 8.6%(1) In USD 000,000s
Conclusion
Financial Condition Cont. Appendix
Financial Condition 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019EProfitability
NOI Margin 51.4% 53.5% 51.5% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53.0%Operating Profit Margin 34.0% 37.0% 35.7% 35.7% 36.0% 36.3% 36.5% 36.8%Net Profit Margin 23.8% 27.1% 27.3% 28.8% 29.2% 29.7% 30.0% 30.2%Return on Assets 3.7% 4.7% 4.8% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%Return on Equity 7.6% 8.5% 9.1% 9.0% 8.9% 8.9% 8.7% 8.6%
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.73x 0.58x 0.51x 0.61x 0.61x 0.61x 0.61x 0.61xCash Ratio 0.05x 0.22x 0.18x 0.22x 0.06x 0.22x 0.22x 0.22x
ActivityAccounts Receivable Turnover (2) 68.11 53.43 56.22 58.61 58.61 58.61 58.61 58.61Total Asset Turnover 0.16x 0.18x 0.18x 0.18x 0.18x 0.18x 0.17x 0.17xFixed Asset Turnover 0.17x 0.18x 0.18x 0.19x 0.18x 0.18x 0.18x 0.18x
Financial LeverageLong-term Debt to Assets 0.49x 0.42x 0.45x 0.41x 0.40x 0.39x 0.38x 0.38xLong-term Debt to Equity 0.96x 0.73x 0.82x 0.69x 0.67x 0.64x 0.63x 0.61xFinancial Leverage 2.04x 1.79x 1.90x 1.76x 1.73x 1.70x 1.68x 1.66xInterest Coverage 2.40x 3.16x 3.37x 3.73x 3.82x 3.93x 3.96x 4.00xDebt Service Coverage (3) 3.62x 4.57x 4.87x 5.39x 5.52x 5.65x 5.71x 5.77x
Shareholder RatiosFFO per Share $3.14 $3.72 $3.96 $4.36 $4.67 $4.95 $5.12 $5.27Dividend Payout Ratio (1) 57.3% 54.0% 67.1% 64.8% 64.5% 64.2% 64.0% 63.9%
(1) Payout Ratio against Funds from Operations
(2) Total Revenue / Accounts Receivable
(3) NOI / Interest Expense
Company OverviewIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Business Description1982
Founded
1985 Establishment of Uncle
Bob’s Self Storage
1995IPO on NYSE as a REIT
2014 Sovran Acquires 500th Property
1999Flex-a-Space System
Introduced
2011Introduced Solar Panel to Self-Storage Units
Appendix
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Lack of Independence on Board
Board Member Career Background
Principal of Stampeed Capital LLC. Provides Real Estate Consulting Support
Arthur L. Havener
Mark G. Barberio Principal of Markapital, LLC, an M&A Consulting Firm
Independent Directors Appointed on January 21, 2015
Board Member Independent Tenure (Yrs)Robert J. Atta No 20Kenneth F Myszka No 20Anthony P. Gammie (1) Yes 20Charles E. Lannon (1) Yes 20Stephen R. Rusmisel Yes 3(1) Limited Independence
Appendix
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Competitive Positioning Appendix
Competiting Positioning SSS EXR CUBE PSAMarket Capitalization $3.12B $7.71B $3.82B $34.03BNumber of Properties 521 1088 595 2,250Number of Square Feet 35,500,000 80,400,000 40,420,000 146,000,000Occupancy Rates 88.50% 90.50% 89.10% 93.50%Number of Acquisitions 33 51 52 44Third Party Management Parnerships 23 260 140 42Number of Joint Ventures 55 271 34 187Revenue $326.1M $657.1M $370.7M $2283.7MNOI $168.0M $404.1M $202.1M $1601.0MAs of December 31, 2014
Conclusion
Management
Executive Title Career with SovranRobert J. Atta, 72 Director, Chairman and Co-Founder 33 yrs.David L. Rogers, 58 CEO and Co-Founder 33 yrs.Kenneth F. Myszka, 65 President, COO and Co-Founder 33 yrs.Andrew J. Gregoire, 46 CFO and Secretary 17 yrs.Edward F. Killeen, 50 Executive VP: Real Estate Mgmt. 18 yrs.Paul T. Powell, 58 Executive VP: Real Estate Inv. 18 yrs.
Appendix
Experienced Management Team averaging more than 25 years experience
Successful navigation through multiple economic cycles
Conclusion
Insider HoldingsAppendix
Name PositionMarket Value (02/10/2015)
% of Shares
Robert J. Attea 231,029 21,788,345$ 0.68%Kenneth F. Myszka 223,476 21,076,022$ 0.66%David L. Rogers 149,676 14,115,944$ 0.46%Charles E. Lannon 114,239 10,773,880$ 0.34%Andrew J. Gregoire 42,061 3,966,773$ 0.12%Paul T. Powell 40,984 3,865,201$ 0.12%Edward F. Killeen 34,632 3,266,144$ 0.10%Anthony P. Gammie 18,953 1,787,457$ 0.06%Stephen R. Rusmisel 2,027 191,166$ 0.01%
Total 857,077 80,830,932$ 2.55%
Conclusion
UPREIT Structure Appendix
Transaction can be completed on a tax differed basis – receives units in the operating partnership
Enables the property owner to convert an interest in one or more specific properties into an interest in a larger and more balanced portfolio of properties held by the UPREIT
Conclusion
Sovran Ownership StructureAppendix
Conclusion
SWOTAppendix
Strengths: Brand Awareness Management Economies of Scale
Weaknesses: 40% of earnings driven from 2 states
Threats: Threat to pricing power through easier
information aggregation
Opportunities: Fragmented Markets Ancillary Revenue Expansion
Conclusion
Interest RatesAppendix
Conclusion
Cap Rates and BBB Corp. Bond Yield Spread HistoryAppendix
Conclusion
FED Dot Plot – March 2015 Appendix
Conclusion
Saturation Levels by State Appendix
State Number of
FacilitiesArea in Square
Feet2012
PopulationRentable Square
Footage Per PersonAlabama 1,042 49,807,600 4,842,196 10.29Alaska 135 6,453,000 732,814 8.81Arizona 883 42,207,400 6,523,478 6.47Arkansas 821 39,243,800 2,960,196 13.26California 4,013 191,821,400 37,707,477 5.09Colorado 986 47,130,800 5,160,251 9.13Connecticut 333 15,917,400 3,583,388 4.44Delaware 128 6,118,400 910,061 6.72District of Columbia 18 860,400 617,405 1.39Florida 2,721 130,063,800 19,016,069 6.84Georgia 1,633 78,057,400 9,858,142 7.92Hawaii 101 4,827,800 1,376,600 3.51Idaho 454 21,701,200 1,605,314 13.52Illinois 1,592 76,097,600 12,931,174 5.88Indiana 1,178 56,308,400 6,539,197 8.61Iowa 548 26,194,400 3,085,316 8.49Kansas 653 31,213,400 2,889,867 10.8Kentucky 632 30,209,600 4,390,111 6.88Louisiana 954 45,601,200 4,628,363 9.85Maine 309 14,770,200 1,339,870 11.02Maryland 528 25,238,400 5,838,730 4.32Massachusetts 554 26,481,200 6,606,895 4.01Michigan 1611 77,005,800 9,887,588 7.79Minnesota 861 41,155,800 5,371,280 7.66Mississippi 648 30,974,400 3,002,948 10.31Missouri 1,311 62,665,800 6,054,543 10.35Montana 443 21,175,400 1,009,397 20.98Nebraska 368 17,590,400 1,856,412 9.48
State Number of
FacilitiesArea in Square
Feet2012
PopulationRentable Square
Footage Per PersonNevada 450 21,510,000 2,757,217 7.8New Hampshire 257 12,284,600 1,326,680 9.26New Jersey 714 34,129,200 8,830,455 3.86New Mexico 509 24,330,200 2,104,755 11.56New York 1403 67,063,400 19,532,811 3.43North Carolina 1890 90,342,000 9,759,332 9.26North Dakota 138 6,596,400 692,887 9.52Ohio 1853 88,573,400 11,590,198 7.64Oklahoma 971 46,413,800 3,811,191 12.18Oregon 777 37,140,600 3,899,159 9.53Pennsylvania 1,629 77,866,200 12,807,296 6.08Rhode Island 102 4,875,600 1,049,634 4.65South Carolina 852 40,725,600 4,739,840 8.59South Dakota 204 9,751,200 834,517 11.68Tennessee 1,295 61,901,000 6,451,693 9.59Texas 4735 226,333,000 25,906,038 8.74Utah 560 26,768,000 2,855,070 9.38Vermont 165 7,887,000 632,877 12.46Virginia 1086 51,910,800 8,142,122 6.38Washington 1339 64,004,200 6,878,781 9.3West Virginia 335 16,013,000 1,875,033 8.54Wisconsin 1220 58,316,000 5,745,625 10.15Wyoming 209 9,990,200 580,724 17.2 Total: 48151 2,301,617,800 313,129,017 7.35
Conclusion
Self Storage Facility Growth Appendix
Year FacilitiesAnnual Growth Annual %
2015E 52,754 678 1.30%2014E 52,076 668 1.30%2013E 51,408 684 1.35%2012 50,724 676 1.35%2011 50,048 692 1.40%2010 49,356 635 1.30%2009 48,721 1,207 2.54%2008 47,514 2,540 5.65%2007 44,974 2,007 4.67%2006 42,967 1,845 4.49%2005 41,122 2,305 5.94%
Conclusion
Beta Analysis
Beta Analysis SSS CUBE EXR PSA5Y Monthly Beta S&P 0.84 1.07 0.95 0.77
R-Squared 0.24 0.31 0.32 0.32Standard Error 0.194 0.211 0.182 0.148
5Y Monthly Beta RMZ 0.98 1.19 1.03 0.92R-Squared 0.57 0.64 0.63 0.77Standard Error 0.113 0.117 0.104 0.067
3Y Weekly Beta S&P 0.90 0.87 0.88 0.75R-Squared 0.25 0.25 0.27 0.27Standard Error 0.125 0.124 0.117 0.099
3Y Weekly Beta RMZ 1.00 0.89 1.00 0.89R-Squared 0.53 0.43 0.59 0.65Standard Error 0.076 0.082 0.067 0.053
Average of S&P 500 5Y & 3Y Betas 0.87 0.97 0.92 0.76Average of RMZ 5Y & 3Y Betas 0.99 1.04 1.01 0.91
Appendix
Conclusion
Treasury Stock Method Diluted Shares Out.Appendix
Diluted Shares Outstanding - Treasury Stock MethodAssumptionsCurrent Share Price (04/02/2015) $93.95Basic Shares Outstanding (As of 10/31/2014 via Q3 2014 10-Q) 34,105,955In-the-Money Options (As of 12/31/2014)
2005 Award and Option Plan 82,6062009 Outside Directors' Stock Option and Award Plan 29,0001995 Outside Directors' Stock Option Plan 4,000Stock Based Compensation Stock Options Oustanding 115,606
Weighted Average Exercise Price2005 Award and Option Plan $45.752009 Outside Directors' Stock Option and Award Plan $56.311995 Outside Directors' Stock Option Plan $49.65Stock Based Compensation Stock Options Oustanding $48.54
Options Proceeds2005 Award and Option Plan $3,779,2252009 Outside Directors' Stock Option and Award Plan $1,632,9901995 Outside Directors' Stock Option Plan $198,600Stock Based Compensation Stock Options Oustanding $5,611,515
Total Options Proceeds $11,222,330Shares Repurchased from Options Proceeds 119,450
Shares from In-the-Money Options 231,212Less: Shares Repurchased from Options Proceeds (119,450)Net New shares from Options 111,762
Plus: Basic Shares Outstanding 34,105,955Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 34,217,717
Conclusion
Economic Value Added
Economic Value AddedEVA=NOI-Opportunity Cost; Opportunity Cost=WACC*Capital; ROI=NOI/Capital
FYE 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013NOI $121.20 $115.77 $126.28 $153.48 $183.16WACC (1) 8.42% 8.42% 8.42% 8.42% 8.42%Total Capital 1,129.70 1,131.06 1,291.71 1,428.69 1,504.49Opportunity Cost $95.12 $95.24 $108.76 $120.30 $126.68
EVA $26.08 $20.53 $17.51 $33.18 $56.48
ROI 10.73% 10.24% 9.78% 10.74% 12.17%Total Capital
Total IBD 492.70 499.48 636.17 699.96 633.78Total SE 637.00 631.58 655.54 728.73 870.71
Total $1,129.7 $1,131.1 $1,291.7 $1,428.7 $1,504.5(1) Derived from first two years of SSS's two-tired WACC calculation
Appendix
Conclusion
State 2011 2012 2013 2014Texas 112 114 117 133Florida 59 67 68 72New York 28 28 34 35Georgia 24 29 30 30New Jersey 22 22 21 29Ohio 23 24 23 23Alabama 25 24 22 22North Carolina 18 20 25 20Virginia 19 20 19 19Louisiana 14 15 16 17Mississippi 14 15 15 15Missouri 8 8 8 15Illinois 0 10 10 13Massachusetts 12 12 13 13Arizona 9 10 10 10Pennsylvania 7 7 7 9Connecticut 5 5 8 8South Carolina 8 8 8 8Colorado 4 4 5 5Tennessee 4 4 4 5Maine 2 2 2 4New Hampshire 4 4 4 4Rhode Island 4 4 4 4Maryland 4 3 3 3Kentucky 2 2 2 2Michigan 4 0 0 0
Totals 435 461 478 518
Properties Appendix
State 2014Texas 16New Jersey 8Missouri 7Florida 4Illinois 3Pennsylvania 2Maine 2Louisiana 1Tennessee 1New York 1
Totals (1) 45(1) Divested 5 North Carolina
Poperties in 2014
Conclusion
Industry OverviewAppendix
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
201323.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
30.0
First Marriage by Age
MenWomen
Conclusion
Debt Schedule and SWAPS
2020 Term Note Fixed by Following SWAP AgreementsAmount Effective Date Expiration Date Fixed Rate
125,000,000$ Sept. - 1 - 2011 Aug. - 1 -2018 2.3700%100,000,000$ Dec - 30 - 2011 Dec. 29 - 2017 1.6125%100,000,000$ Sept. - 4 - 2013 Sept. - 4 - 2018 1.3710%
125,000,000$ Dec. 29 - 2017 Nov. - 29 - 2019 3.9680%100,000,000$ Aug. - 1 -2018 Jun. - 1 - 2020 4.1930%
Appendix
Description Principal Due (USD)
Coupon/Base Rate Floating Rate Maturity Secured Other
2016 Term Note 150,000,000$ 6.38% - Apr -13-2016 NoInterest Rate Increases to 8.13% if Credit Rating Downgraded.
*2020 Term Note 325,000,000$ - LIBOR + 1.4 Jun - 4 - 2020 No Facility Fee of 0.20
2021 Term Note 100,000,000$ 5.54% - Aug - 5- 2021 NoInterest Rate Increases to 7.29% if Credit Rating Downgraded
2024 Term Note 175,000,000$ 4.53% - Apr - 8 - 2014 No
Interest Rate Increases to 6.268% if Credit Rating Downgraded
Mortgage Notes 2,160,000$ 5.99% - May - 1 - 2026 Yes
Revolving Line of Credit
$49,000 Outstanding as of Q4 $251,000,000 Available on Line - LIBOR + 1.3 Dec - 10 - 2019 No Facility Fee of 0.20
*NOTE: 2020 term not fixed via Interst Rate SWAPS
Conclusion
Revenue Growth BreakdownAppendix
The majority of revenue growth will be fueled by acquisitions
Average annual occupancy rates will peak at 91%
Ancillary Revenue will account for 10.6% of revenue in 2019.
Revenue Growth Breakdown 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019EIncrease in Occupancy Rates 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3%Increase in Sales per Square Ft. 6.0% 5.4% 3.8% 1.5% 1.0%Increase in Total Square Ft. 5.8% 6.0% 4.5% 3.5% 3.0%
Rental Revenue Growth 12.8% 11.9% 8.8% 5.3% 4.3%Ancilliary Revenue Growth 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% 12.5% 12.5%
Total Revenue Growth 13.3% 12.2% 9.3% 6.0% 5.1%
Conclusion
Long-Term Risk Free RateAppendix
The risk free rate and intrinsic value are negatively correlated As a main factor in both the Cost of Equity and Cost of Debt, the
model is sensitive to changes in the Long-Term Risk Free Rate Changes in this rate do not affect our HOLD recommendation
UST 10 Year normalized
Percentage change in rate
Weighted Average Intrinsic
Precentage change in value Recommendation
Return from Stock
2.50% 28.57% $ 99.92 -5.36% Hold 6.35%3.00% 14.29% $ 97.41 -2.71% Hold 3.68%3.50% 0.00% $ 94.84 0.00% Hold 0.95%4.00% -14.29% $ 92.57 2.39% Hold -1.47%4.50% -28.57% $ 90.29 4.80% Hold -3.90%
Conclusion
Assumed Cap Rate Appendix
Although this demonstrates sensitivity, our recommendation remains constant for the majority of possible outcomes
A significant drop in cap rate will cause property values to rise, changing our recommendation to a BUY
Our cap rate of 5.25% was calculated using definitions from published industry research, company guidance, and historical trend analysis
Terminal Cap Rate
Percentage change in rate
Weighted Average Intrinsic
Precentage change in value Recommendation
Return from Stock
5.50% -8.33% $ 103.12 -8.73% Hold 9.76%5.75% -4.17% $ 98.84 -4.22% Hold 5.20%6.00% 0.00% $ 94.84 0.00% Hold 0.95%6.25% 4.17% $ 91.22 3.82% Hold -2.91%6.50% 8.33% $ 87.95 7.26% Hold -6.39%
Conclusion
Monte Carlo Factors Appendix
Factor The Factor Effects Parameters Explanation2015 x: 89.0% s: 1.63%2016 x: 89.5% s: 1.63%2017 x: 90.0% s: 1.63%2018 x: 90.2% s: 1.63%2019 x: 90.5% s: 1.63%2015 x: $10.2 s: $0.622016 x: $10.7 s: $0.622017 x: $11.1 s: $0.622018 x: $11.3 s: $0.622019 x: $11.4 s: $0.622015 x: 5.7% s: 2.0%2016 x: 6.0% s: 2.0%2017 x: 4.5% s: 2.0%2018 x: 3.5% s: 2.0%2019 x: 3.0% s: 2.0%x: 8.32%s: 1.15%x: 8.48%
s: 1.15%
x: 6.00%
s: 0.46%
This accounts for sensitivity of shifts in industry characteristics, the largest average occupancy rate considered is
93%
Occupancy Rate Total Revenue
This allows for sensitivity in changes of industry supply and demand
characteristics affecting SSS’s pricing power
Sales per square foot Total Revenue
Net Growth Rate in square feet
Total RevenueThis increases the sensitivity of the model by allowing year-over-year
expected total square foot changes
Terminal Capitalization Rate Terminal Value
We are 95% confident that the terminal cap rate will be between 5.08% and 6.92%
1st Tier WACC Cost of Capital This increases sensitivity to short term changes in interest rates
2nd Tier WACC Cost of CapitalThis increases sensitivity to the forecasted long-term normalized value of interest rates
Conclusion
Monte Carlo Buy ScenarioAppendix
53.4%46.5%.1%
Simulation DataMean 110.06$ SD 10.60$ 5th Percentile 93.87$ 95th Percentile 128.82$
Conclusion
Monte Carlo Factors (Buy Scenario)Appendix
Factor The Factor Effects Parameters Explanation2015 x: 89.0% s: 1.63%2016 x: 90.0% s: 1.63%2017 x: 91.0% s: 1.63%2018 x: 91.5% s: 1.63%2019 x: 92.0% s: 1.63%2015 x: $10.4 s: $0.62
2016 x: $10.9 s: $0.62
2017 x: $11.4 s: $0.622018 x: $11.9 s: $0.622019 x: $12.2 s: $0.622015 x: 7.0% s: 2.0%2016 x: 6.5% s: 2.0%2017 x: 5.5% s: 2.0%2018 x: 4.5% s: 2.0%2019 x: 3.5% s: 2.0%x: 8.32%s: 1.15%x: 8.48%s: 1.15%x: 5.75%s: 0.46%
This accounts for sensitivity of shifts in industry characteristics, the largest average occupancy
rate considered is 93%
Sales per square foot Total RevenueThis allows for sensitivity in changes of
industry supply and demand characteristics affecting SSS’s pricing power
Net Growth Rate in square feet
Total RevenueThis increases the sensitivity of the model by allowing year-over-year expected total square
foot changes
Occupancy Rate Total Revenue
Terminal Capitalization Rate
Terminal Value We are 95% confident that the terminal cap rate will be between 5.08% and 6.92%
1st Tier WACC Cost of Capital This increases sensitivity to short term changes in interest rates
2nd Tier WACC Cost of Capital This increases sensitivity to the forecasted long-term normalized value of interest rates
Conclusion
Cap Rate Assumptions Appendix
Date Cap Rate 10 Year SpreadOct-98 10.1% 4.75% 5.4%Oct-99 10.0% 6.0% 4.0%Oct-00 10.1% 5.8% 4.3%Oct-01 9.3% 4.3% 5.0%Oct-02 9.1% 3.7% 5.4%Oct-03 7.8% 4.1% 3.7%Oct-04 7.0% 4.2% 2.8%Oct-05 6.6% 4.5% 2.1%Oct-06 5.75% 4.8% 1.0%Oct-07 6.1% 4.7% 1.4%Oct-08 7.0% 4.1% 2.9%Oct-09 7.6% 3.5% 4.1%Oct-10 6.7% 2.6% 4.1%Oct-11 6.9% 2.2% 4.7%Oct-12 6.2% 1.9% 4.3%Oct-13 6.2% 2.7% 3.5%Oct-14 6.1% 2.6% 3.5%Dec-14 5.7% 2.1% 3.6%
Historical Spread Less Outliers3.7%2.8%2.1%4.1%4.1%4.7%4.3%3.5%3.5%
Avg 3.0%Terminal 10 Yr - 3.0% 6.0%
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
Relative Valuation Appendix
EV to EBITDA Valuation ($ in Millions)Mean EV / EBITDA Multiple 24.4xLTM EBITDA $170.2
Enterprise Value $4,156.7Less: Debt $762.6Less: Minority Interest $12.9
Equity Value $3,381.1Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 34.2M
Intrinsic Value per Share $98.81
Current Trading Price (04-02-2015) $93.95Premium (Discount) to Valuation 5.2%
Price to FFO / Share Valuation ($ in Millions)Mean P / FFO Figure 24.3xLTM FFO / Share $4.0
Equity Value $97.13
Current Trading Price (04-02-2015) $93.95Premium (Discount) to Valuation 3.4%
Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis ConclusionIndustry &
Competitive Positioning
MultiplesAppendix
CompanyEnt. Val.
(M)EV /
EBITDA P / FFOEV / Rev
Debt / EBITDA
Price / NOI
P / Tang BV
Dividend Yield
SSS $3,957.4 23.3x 23.5x 14.5x 4.8x 22.1x 3.3x 3.3%CUBE $5,077.5 25.1x 22.9x 13.7x 5.8x 21.6x 3.0x 2.7%EXR $10,266.4 25.4x 26.3x 15.6x 5.9x 24.0x 4.4x 3.0%PSA $38,284.7 23.9x 24.5x 16.8x 2.7x 25.0x 7.1x 2.8%
Mean 24.4x 24.3x 15.1x 4.8x 23.2x 4.5x 3.0%Median 24.5x 24.0x 15.0x 5.3x 23.0x 3.9x 2.9%
Conclusion
Company FFO Calculations
SOVRAN Calculation of FFO Nine Months Ended9/30/2014
Net Income attributable to common shareholders 62,838$ Net Income attributable to noncontrolling interest 381 Depreciation of realestate and amortization of intangible assets 37,097 Depreciation of realestate included in discontinued operations - Depreciation and amortization from unconsolidated joint ventures 1,166 (Gain) on sale of realestate (1,777)
Funds from Operations allocable to noncontrolling redeemable Operating Partnership Units (601) FFO available to common shareholders 99,104$
SSS and EXR use NAREIT definition of FFO
PSA does not include operating partnership units in calculation. Prefers using their own “Core FFO” Calculation
CUBE does not use NAREIT Definition
Appendix
Conclusion
Premium on BUY Assumption Defense Appendix
SSS CUBE EXRStandard Deviation 2 Years Ago 19.24% 20.32% 18.35%Standard Deviation Last Full Year 15.59% 17.07% 15.45%
PSA GSPC RMZStandard Deviation 2 Years Ago 15.29% 11.59% 18.50%Standard Deviation Last Full Year 12.89% 11.60% 20.68%